Tom Warren's Xbox sources put GTA 6 pre-orders firmly on PS5
The comment is a single line inside a longer Verge report about Microsoft's Xbox restructuring. Push Square picked up the same line and described the full report as a look at the larger dramas occurring at Xbox of late, including its massive layoffs and restructuring. According to Warren, Microsoft cut 268 jobs across its gaming division that week and moved several studios, including Rare and World's Edge, under Activision. Halo Studios was cut back to a skeleton team.
The GTA line sits in the part of the report about hardware. Warren writes that the pre-order skew is "ringing yet more alarm bells about the platform." In the next sentences he notes that Xbox hardware revenue has fallen for three straight years. He also says the memory-price squeeze he calls "RAMageddon" keeps pushing Xbox Series X prices up, which makes the outlook for Project Helix, Microsoft's next-generation console, harder to read.
The report does not give a size for the gap. As Techtroduce points out, it does not provide unit totals, percentages or regional breakdowns, meaning the claim should be treated as sourced internal reporting rather than confirmed sales data. The sources are unnamed, and no measurement period or data source is given. Neither Rockstar Games nor Microsoft has published platform-specific GTA VI preorder figures. The story is a direction backed by insiders. It is not a sales chart.
Several outlets repeated the line within hours, including Notebookcheck, Push Square and Aroged. Nearly all of them trace back to Warren's report, so they count as one source repeated, not independent confirmation. Push Square did add its own view of the reporter's track record, saying Warren is remarkably well-connected with Microsoft, so I believe the reporting.
Microsoft's June rebuttal of the GTA 6 "8-to-1" click data was about method
The September report is not the first time this has come up. Rockstar opened GTA 6 pre-orders on June 25, 2026 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S, with a planned release date of November 19, 2026. Within days, lopsided numbers were circulating. NoobFeed summarized them at the time: early retail tracking shows that GTA 6 online preorder clicks for the PlayStation 5 version of the game are beating the XBOX Series version by a massive 8-to-1 margin. Tech4Gamers, citing a separate report, said GTA 6 pre-orders are selling 6 times faster on PS5 compared to Xbox.
The 8-to-1 figure came from affiliate-link tracking. It measured clicks through a commerce program, not completed purchases across the PlayStation Store, Microsoft Store and retailers. Even at the time, outlets warned that link clicks do not always translate into final purchases. NoobFeed added a second distortion: the data might also be a bit skewed because of how confusing the physical release options for GTA 6 have been for the community lately. Rockstar's support documentation confirms that the physical edition contains a download code, not the full game on disc.
Microsoft objected. Windows Central reported the Xbox response as "This doesn't represent pre-order data." Xbox also told people to wait for real data and said the game had record pre-orders on Xbox. No platform totals came with that statement. The claim of a record and the claim of a PS5 lead can both be true, because a record on Xbox says nothing about the PS5 figure.
The September report and the June rebuttal therefore fit together without contradiction. Microsoft was right that affiliate clicks are not pre-order data. Warren's sources now say the real pre-order data points the same way. Their account supports the direction of June's claim. It does not support the 8-to-1 size, and nothing public shows that the two measurements cover the same method or time window.
Sensor Tower's 77/23 estimate gives the PS5 skew a rough size
The best public attempt to measure the gap comes from Sensor Tower, the market-intelligence firm, which has run a GTA 6 pre-order tracker since June. Wolf's Gaming Blog reported its estimates in late August. At that point the tracker showed 4.38 million pre-orders across both console families, worth about $429 million net of returns, with PlayStation accounting for 77% of the estimated sales compared with 23% on Xbox. That works out to roughly 3.38 million pre-orders on PS5 and 1 million on Xbox. A Japanese trade publication later reported the same 77/23 split using data through September 8.
Sensor Tower's figures are modeled. Notebookcheck's coverage of the tracker says the firm uses proprietary panel data and data-science models. Take-Two has not published official pre-order totals. The estimates do show how interest has moved over time. Notebookcheck reported that modeled pre-orders jumped 436% on August 27, the day of the extended-look trailer, compared with the day before. The PlayStation-side increase that day was 606%, against 127% on Xbox. These are percentage changes over short windows, not unit totals.
The tracker also shows where the money goes. There are two editions: the $79.99 Standard Edition or the $99.99 Ultimate Edition. Sensor Tower's breakdown assigns roughly 90% of all pre-orders to the Ultimate Edition. If that estimate holds, the average pre-order is worth close to $100. Any platform gap in units then becomes a similar gap in revenue at the storefront, and for Xbox that means the Microsoft Store's share of digital sales.
The Sensor Tower estimate and Warren's sources are separate evidence that point the same way. Warren gives no percentage, so the two cannot be compared on size. What can be said is that a modeled estimate available before September 24 and an internal account published on September 24 both put PS5 well ahead.
Install base math explains most of the GTA 6 gap
A PS5 lead is expected. The question is how much of it goes beyond the difference in console install base. Push Square puts the two platforms at the PS5 approaching 100 million units sold compared to the Xbox Series X|S' estimated ~35 million, and concludes that you'd expect a difference of roughly 3:1 in the pre-orders. Sony does not publish an Xbox figure and Microsoft stopped reporting console units, so the Xbox number is an estimate.
Compare that with Sensor Tower. A 77/23 split is about 3.3 to 1, slightly more than the roughly 2.9 to 1 install-base ratio implied by Push Square's figures. That is our own calculation from two estimates, and each has its own error margin. It suggests PS5 is winning GTA 6 by roughly its hardware lead plus a little more. The 6-to-1 or 8-to-1 margins from June's click data were well above anything the install base can explain, and those were the figures Microsoft disputed.
Commentary offers several reasons PS5 might over-index. Notebookcheck says marketing for GTA 6 has been pretty much exclusively on the PS5, pointing to the gameplay trailers to the Netflix extended look to the "Plays best on the PS5" social media posts. It also argues that PS5 hardware offers better value after both companies raised console prices. These are commentators' explanations. Warren's sources did not give a reason, and no dataset separates the effect of marketing from the effect of install base.
Why the GTA 6 split lands hard on Xbox hardware and Project Helix
For Microsoft, the timing is what hurts. Warren places the GTA line next to three years of falling Xbox hardware revenue and rising Series X prices. Aroged, summarizing the same report, said the pre-order headwinds are not helping the Xbox relaunch that CEO Asha Sharma craves. GTA 6 is exactly the kind of multiplatform launch that could sell consoles over the holidays. By these accounts, most of those console sales are going to Sony.
The split also affects Game Pass, which Warren's report covers in detail. GTA 6 is a full-price Rockstar release, not a Game Pass title. Warren reports that Microsoft is weighing ad-supported Game Pass tiers without day-one games, add-on cloud-gaming bundles and a family plan. He links those possible changes to "the reality of the Xbox hardware situation." With fewer players buying the year's biggest game on Xbox, fewer people have a reason to be inside Microsoft's console storefront and subscription service during the holiday quarter.
Next-generation planning is the last piece. Warren says the combination of weak hardware revenue, rising component costs and restructuring makes it "increasingly harder to predict" what happens to Project Helix. A GTA 6 launch that heavily favors PS5 will not decide Helix on its own. It is, however, the clearest demand signal Microsoft will get this year, and by its own staff's account that signal favors Sony.
What the GTA 6 pre-order split means for Xbox owners and buyers
For players, nothing changes in practice: GTA 6 is still scheduled for November 19 on both PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, and nothing in the reporting suggests the Xbox version is at risk. The decision is really for people who don't yet own a current console, and for anyone making plans around Game Pass or Microsoft's hardware roadmap.
- If you own an Xbox Series X|S, the pre-order split has no effect on your copy of GTA 6. Both versions are on the same November 19 schedule.
- If you are buying a console for GTA 6, the evidence shows PS5 has the larger player base and the marketing tie-in. It does not show that the Xbox version is worse, because no comparison of the two versions has been published.
- If you care about physical media, both platforms' physical editions contain a download code according to Rockstar's support documentation, so the box does not give you a resellable disc.
- Treat any exact ratio with caution. The 8-to-1 and 6-to-1 figures from June came from click and retail tracking that Microsoft disputed, and Sensor Tower's 77/23 is a modeled estimate.
- Game Pass subscribers should watch for the rumored tier restructuring. Warren links it directly to Xbox's hardware position, and Microsoft says it is about three-quarters of the way through its Xbox restructuring.
The June dispute is now mostly settled. Microsoft was right that affiliate clicks are not pre-order data, and by its own staff's account the actual pre-orders still point clearly toward PS5. Neither Take-Two nor Microsoft has committed to publishing a platform breakdown. The first harder evidence will likely be launch-period sales tracking after November 19, along with Microsoft's next earnings report covering the holiday quarter. That report will show whether Xbox hardware revenue fell for a fourth year while the biggest game of the generation launched.