TrendForce: 2027 Laptop Shipments May Decline as Component Costs Rise and China Production Regains Share

These are forecasts and conditional scenarios, not outcomes. The report is still worth reading closely, because it describes a squeeze that touches price, specifications and where your next PC gets assembled.

The headline numbers​

• 2027 shipments: TrendForce's baseline is a low-single-digit decline. If component costs keep rising and are fully passed on to consumers, the full-year decline could reach the high-single-digit range.
• Production outside China: TrendForce estimates the share of global notebook production outside China will fall from about 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026, and potentially below 20% in 2027.
• Cost structure: For a mainstream notebook with a US$900 MSRP, the CPU, DRAM and SSD made up about 68% of bill-of-materials cost in 3Q26.

That 68% is a share of the build cost for one benchmark model. It is not a share of the retail price.

From shortage to affordability​

TrendForce says the main 2027 risk shifts. The question moves from whether enough components are available to whether consumers can absorb higher prices.

The firm says 2026 looked better than the underlying market. Shipments were supported by better CPU availability, early procurement by brands and replacement purchases brought forward. TrendForce does not see that as a real recovery in end demand. In other words, some 2027 purchases may already have happened. TrendForce's September update projected that 2026 shipments would fall 9.4% year over year. That 2026 figure is separate from the 2027 scenarios.

The trade-off brands can't dodge​

Brands bought a lot of cheaper inventory ahead of the price rises. That cushion is running down. TrendForce lists three options for brands:

1. Raise prices, which risks weakening demand.
2. Absorb the cost, which squeezes gross margins.
3. Cut specifications such as memory capacity, which could hurt competitiveness.

TrendForce's conclusion is that brands are unlikely to maintain pricing, specifications and profitability simultaneously.

For Windows buyers and IT purchasers, the practical reading is a guess based on TrendForce's logic, not a finding. Expect either higher sticker prices or quieter spec trimming. RAM and storage tiers are the likeliest places to see it. Check the memory and SSD configuration of any budget refresh closely.

The September benchmark​

In a separate September update, TrendForce used the same US$900 benchmark across periods. It said CPU, DRAM and SSD were about 45% of BOM cost in 1Q25 and had risen to 68% by 3Q26. It also estimated that a comparable 1Q25 product would need roughly an 80% price increase by 3Q26 to keep the same gross margin.

That 80% is a margin-maintenance model. It is not a forecast that laptops will cost 80% more.

Why production may drift back to China​

TrendForce's logic is about cost, not a change in geopolitics. The firm said that if tariff pressures do not intensify further, the factors guiding manufacturing "glocalisation" are likely to shift from minimising policy risks towards production costs, supply-chain completeness and operational efficiency.

With component prices elevated, the extra logistics, component sourcing and supply-chain management costs at emerging manufacturing locations will get closer scrutiny. That could lead some brands to move capacity set up outside China for risk diversification back to China.

Some caveats matter here:

• The figures describe where laptops are made. They do not predict that every brand will return production to China.
• It is a share forecast. It does not give absolute volumes.
• The release names no manufacturers, destination countries or tariff rates, and it gives no dates for individual relocations.
• The tariff condition is a real hinge. If trade barriers escalate, the cost-first logic could weaken.

Third-party summaries have named Vietnam, Thailand, India and Mexico as diversification destinations. That is the summarizer's framing and not part of TrendForce's own text, so treat it as context.

Component outlook​

TrendForce says supply conditions for notebook components may become more uneven in 2027.

• DRAM: likely to stay tight as AI server demand absorbs advanced-process capacity. PC DRAM risks limited supply growth.
• NAND flash: constraints might ease in the second half of 2027 as new capacity comes online.
• Other parts: PCBs, MLCCs and PMICs are under pressure from capacity allocation, raw-material costs and geopolitical issues. That could mean higher prices or longer lead times.

So easier SSD supply would not solve the problem on its own.

What it means for readers​

• Consumers: If you were planning a laptop or Windows PC refresh, TrendForce's analysis suggests prices are more likely to rise than fall, and the 2027 specs on offer may be thinner. Buying sooner, as other buyers have, is one option. This is general reasoning and not advice from TrendForce.
• IT administrators: Fleet refresh budgets may need a cushion. Longer replacement cycles are one outcome TrendForce names for higher prices.
• Balance: TrendForce is a market research firm. Its numbers are estimates, and the scenarios depend on component prices and on how much brands pass on. The low-single-digit baseline is the central case. The high-single-digit decline is the downside.

The unresolved question is whether shoppers will absorb the higher costs. TrendForce says that will decide how the 2027 laptop market ends up.