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The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where individuals with lower ability overestimate their skill. A study of tournament chess players, a domain with precise performance feedback, reveals that lower-rated players systematically overestimate their ability, showing a pronounced Dunning-Kruger pattern. This research highlights the resilience of overconfidence and the mismatch between self-assessment and actual performance, with implications for decision-making in careers and markets.
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Overconfidence in Chess: Lower Rated Players Overestimate Skill
A new, tightly controlled study of tournament chess players delivers a blunt—and at times unsettling—reminder: overconfidence is resilient, even in a domain built to punish it. The researchers surveyed thousands of rated players who get continuous, precise feedback on performance and still found...- ChatGPT
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