Four Diwalis in Bihar: Shah's Link of Ram, Welfare and GST to Elections

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Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s declaration that “the people of Bihar have to celebrate four Diwalis this time” crystallizes a compact campaign narrative rolled out across religion, welfare, fiscal policy, and electoral ambition—each “Diwali” a deliberately chosen signal aimed at different voter constituencies as the Bihar Assembly elections approach on the political calendar.

Background​

Amit Shah spoke these words during an outreach trip to Bihar on September 27, 2025, a day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the state’s Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana on September 26, 2025. Shah listed four reasons for the metaphoric quartet of Diwalis: (1) the return of Lord Ram to Ayodhya, (2) the launch of the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, (3) the implementation of the government’s next‑gen GST reforms, and (4) a BJP‑NDA victory in the Bihar elections that would, in his framing, deliver a final electoral “Diwali.” Each element has distinct political and policy implications that merit careful unpacking.

Overview: What Amit Shah said, and why it matters​

Shah’s soundbite is short, pithy, and strategically dense. It fuses three nationally resonant policy and cultural moments with a direct electoral ask: vote the BJP‑NDA to secure the fourth celebration. Delivered on September 27, 2025, the remark binds:
  • Religious symbolism (Ram’s return to Ayodhya) — a cultural cue resonant with Hindu voters and devotees.
  • Welfare politics (Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, launched September 26, 2025) — a targeted cash‑transfer program delivered to women across Bihar.
  • Economic policy (next‑gen GST reforms implemented in September 2025) — a headline fiscal change presented as a “Diwali gift” for consumers and middle‑class spenders.
  • Electoral outcome (a promised BJP‑NDA government in Bihar) — the explicit political payoff.
This is more than a one‑line promise: it’s a campaign architecture that asks voters to translate policy launches and symbolic milestones into partisan support.

Context: Bihar politics and timing​

The electoral backdrop​

Bihar is a high‑stakes battleground with a complex coalition arithmetic. The state’s assembly elections in 2025 are widely projected to influence national narratives, and all major political camps have escalated outreach across social, economic, and cultural axes.
The BJP and its National Democratic Alliance partners have set aggressive targets and mobilized central leadership visits—Amit Shah’s September 27 appearance is one instance of a concentrated central push. The timing of the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana launch (September 26, 2025) and the rollout of next‑gen GST reforms (implemented in late September 2025) gave the central leadership immediate, tangible claims to broadcast to voters.

Why the four pillars were chosen​

  • Religious symbolism mobilizes identity and devotion; the Ram Mandir consecration (the formal “return of Lord Ram” to Ayodhya) remains a potent national moment that many voters interpret as cultural vindication.
  • Large, visible cash‑transfer or livelihood schemes targeted at women are classic vote‑bank building measures—particularly effective when timed close to polls.
  • GST rate rationalization and the so‑called “next‑gen” reforms were promoted as a festival‑season fiscal windfall that lowers prices and increases disposable income—an economic argument that appeals to consumers across the income ladder.
  • Tying all three to a final, contingent political reward (electoral victory) transforms policy into an instrumental call to action.

Verification of the three policy claims (what can be confirmed)​

  • Return of Lord Ram to Ayodhya
  • The consecration (pran‑pratishtha) ceremony at the Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir in Ayodhya is an event that took place on January 22, 2024; subsequent temple rituals and anniversaries have been observed according to the Hindu calendar. This remains a widely reported and confirmed national event that the BJP continues to reference in political messaging.
  • Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana
  • The scheme was launched on September 26, 2025, with an initial direct cash transfer of ₹10,000 per beneficiary intended for 75 lakh women across Bihar, an outlay equating to ₹7,500 crore for the initial tranche. The program was foregrounded as a women‑targeted livelihood and self‑employment support scheme, with additional phases and higher potential support flagged in official descriptions.
  • Next‑gen GST reforms
  • The central government rolled out a high‑visibility GST rate rationalization in September 2025, framed as “next‑gen GST reforms.” The announced changes reduced the number of GST slabs and adjusted rates to simplify compliance—public statements from finance leadership described the reforms as intended to boost disposable income and reduce the tax burden on many consumer goods. Implementation phases and transitional rules were set around late September 2025.
Where public records and official announcements exist — the Ram Mandir consecration date, the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana launch on September 26, 2025, and the broader next‑gen GST reform package implemented in September 2025 — these elements are publicly verifiable. The political projection (a fourth Diwali contingent on an electoral win) is a campaign promise and therefore by nature conditional.

Deconstructing each “Diwali”: political logic, benefits, and voter appeal​

1) Religious symbolism: Ram’s return to Ayodhya — identity politics as a mobilizer​

  • Political logic: Religious symbolism has long acted as a potent mobilizing force in Indian electoral politics. The Ram Mandir event fulfills an emotive narrative—restoration of a sacred site—that BJP leadership frames as part of a civilizational victory.
  • Voter appeal: For devout and culturally conservative segments, the temple and its associated rituals reinforce identity cohesion and reward devotion with political salience.
  • Risks: Reliance on religious symbolism can deepen identity polarization, risk alienating secular and minority voters, and invite scrutiny on whether governance agendas are being subordinated to identity politics.

2) Welfare optics: Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana — cash transfers to women​

  • Political logic: Targeted benefits to women—especially via Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT)—are efficient, visible, and can be linked to narratives of empowerment. Announcing such transfers close to polls amplifies their electoral visibility.
  • Voter appeal: The scheme directly touches households, promising immediate liquidity and potential livelihood support for women—an attractive proposition in rural and semi‑urban constituencies.
  • Risks and implementation challenges:
  • Timing raises legal and ethical questions when welfare launches occur near elections (the model code of conduct and electoral norms vary by schedule and is often contested).
  • Effective outreach, grievance redress, and ensuring last‑mile delivery are operationally demanding—short lead times between launch and voting can limit scheme uptake and blunt credibility if execution issues emerge.

3) Economic incentive: Next‑gen GST reforms — the “Diwali gift” narrative​

  • Political logic: Fiscal policy framed as a festival windfall is designed to be tangible and widespread. Rate cuts and slab rationalization are headline‑friendly and can be communicated as tax relief benefiting consumers directly.
  • Voter appeal: Lower tax rates on everyday goods increase disposable income, help dampen inflationary pressures, and have a persuasive, immediate feel—especially during the festive season when consumer buying spikes.
  • Risks and economic tradeoffs:
  • Revenue impact and state compensation: GST is a shared federal system. Rate reductions require state compensation mechanisms and careful revenue forecasting.
  • Distributional effects: While many items may become cheaper, some higher‑end goods or luxury categories could face higher effective rates in a rebalanced slab structure; winners and losers must be anticipated.
  • Implementation frictions: Software updates, invoice adjustments, and transitional GST return rules can produce short‑term compliance headaches for businesses and accountants.

4) The electoral Diwali: BJP‑NDA victory as the ultimate payoff​

  • Political logic: The fourth Diwali is explicitly conditional—a promise of political triumph that would, in the BJP’s narrative, cement all preceding gains into governing authority and thereby long‑term policy continuity.
  • Voter appeal: This plays to the aspirational emotion: continuity of perceived gains, stability, and expanded government programs under a sympathetic state administration.
  • Risks: Overpromising is a perennial electoral hazard. If policy gains are seen as temporary or symbolic rather than structural, voters may react skeptically. Additionally, tying government programmes and cultural events too tightly to partisan campaigning invites legal and ethical scrutiny.

Strategic strengths of the “four Diwalis” message​

  • Multi‑vector reach: By combining religion, welfare, and macroeconomic policy in a single, memorable slogan, the message reaches diverse voter segments—devotees, women beneficiaries, middle‑class consumers, and party workers.
  • Short, repeatable framing: “Four Diwalis” is easy to echo across rallies and social media, increasing message traction and recall.
  • Festival season leverage: The timing with the festive season amplifies emotional salience and consumer spending cycles, making GST cuts feel immediate.
  • Policy triangulation: The trio of verified events (Ram Mandir, women’s scheme, GST reforms) offers both symbolic and substantive claims the campaign can legitimately highlight.

Significant risks and downsides​

  • Polarization: Emphasizing religious milestones as part of formal campaign rhetoric can sharpen communal division and distract from governance metrics that affect everyday life (health, education, infrastructure).
  • Perception of vote‑buying: Launching or publicizing welfare schemes close to polls invites accusations of opportunistic timing and vote‑swaying through benefit distribution—this can erode trust if execution falters or if the electorate perceives manipulation.
  • Policy credibility vs. political spin: Announcing tax cuts or reforms and calling them a festival gift risks oversimplifying complex fiscal tradeoffs. If pockets of the electorate experience price or supply disruptions during the transition, the political optics may backfire.
  • Administrative strain: Rapid rollout of large‑scale schemes (both the DBT program for women and GST changes) places pressure on state and central administrative machinery, creating potential for implementation failures that campaigns cannot easily gloss over.
  • Judicial and regulatory oversight: When political messaging and state action converge tightly, courts, election commissioners, and opposition litigators are likely to litigate boundaries—adding uncertainty to post‑election governance.

What this means for voters and stakeholders​

  • For voters: The “four Diwalis” formula packages cultural pride, immediate cash transfers, and a fiscal reform narrative into a clear incentive structure: vote for continuity and government promises. Voters should evaluate both immediate benefits (cash transfers, lower prices) and long‑term durability (whether programs will persist after the election).
  • For policy watchers and economists: The GST overhaul deserves close technical scrutiny—how revenues are shared with states, which commodities gained vs. lost preferential treatment, and the transition mechanics for businesses and tax software.
  • For civil society and watchdogs: The timing and promotional linkage between welfare launches and electoral campaigning needs transparent monitoring for fairness, especially where administrative advantages may asymmetrically benefit incumbents.
  • For opposition parties: The quartet of Diwalis tightens the campaign narrative in favor of the BJP‑NDA; counterstrategy will likely emphasize governance performance, delivery failures, and alternative welfare promises that do not rely on religious symbolism.

Operational realities: implementing the welfare and GST elements​

Implementing Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana​

  • Targeting and registry: Enrollment, authentication (Aadhaar/DBT linkage), and SHG coordination must be robust to avoid exclusion errors.
  • Training and support: Beneficiaries will need rapid, context‑sensitive training and market access support to translate an initial ₹10,000 into sustainable livelihoods.
  • Grievance redress: A transparent, time‑bound mechanism to address failed transfers, duplicate payments, and identity mismatches is essential for credibility.
  • Monitoring: Real‑time dashboards, third‑party audits, and community monitoring can reduce leakage and ensure intended outcomes.

Implementing next‑gen GST reforms​

  • Rate mapping and notifications: Clear lists showing which HSN codes moved between slabs are necessary to avoid confusion.
  • Software and POS updates: Billing and accounting software vendors and MSME vendors require immediate communication and patches before an implementation date.
  • Transitional guidance: Rules for invoices issued before the change but taxed after, e‑way bills, ITC adjustments, and refund windows need precise directives.
  • State compensation and fiscal arithmetic: The Centre and states must finalize compensation mechanisms to avert intergovernmental disputes.
Failure in any of these operational steps would weaken the electoral narrative and could become a point of political vulnerability.

Opposition reaction and likely counter‑narratives​

Expect opposition parties to pursue several concurrent strategies:
  • Question timing: Frame the launch of welfare schemes as electoral inducement when timed near polls and push for enforcement of electoral norms.
  • Highlight execution gaps: Scrutinize DBT rollouts, beneficiary lists, software errors, and implementation delays to argue that the schemes are symbolic rather than substantive.
  • Reframe identity politics: Push countermessages emphasizing pluralism, governance record, and concrete social indicators (health, education, employment) rather than symbolic victories.
  • Economic skepticism: Challenge the sustainability and distributional fairness of GST rate changes, and call for transparent fiscal accounting of revenue implications.
These pushbacks will shape the narrative terrain in the weeks ahead.

Measuring success: short‑term indicators and long‑term signals​

Short‑term metrics to watch:
  • Uptake percentage of the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana within 30 days of launch.
  • Price movements and retail pass‑through following GST rate changes (especially essentials).
  • Public sentiment in key swing districts as captured by independent polling and on‑ground reports.
Long‑term signals:
  • Whether the central and state administrations institutionalize the women’s livelihood program beyond the campaign cycle.
  • Fiscal sustainability of GST changes and any subsequent course corrections by the GST Council or finance ministry.
  • Electoral returns in Bihar and whether the BJP‑NDA can convert the multi‑pronged narrative into a governing majority.

Conclusion: politics, policy and the festival of messaging​

Amit Shah’s “four Diwalis” line is textbook campaign engineering: compressing cultural symbolism, targeted welfare, macroeconomic relief, and a politics‑first call‑to‑action into a memorable frame. Each element is grounded in verifiable events and policy shifts — the Ram Mandir consecration, the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana launch on September 26, 2025, and the next‑gen GST reforms implemented in September 2025 — but the rhetorical fusion is explicitly partisan.
The strategy’s strength is its breadth: it appeals to devotional sentiment, direct household benefit, economic self‑interest, and the desire for political continuity. Its principal weakness is the friction between spectacle and substance. Delivering durable welfare, ensuring GST transitions are smooth and equitable, and avoiding the corrosive effects of identity polarization are nontrivial administrative and ethical challenges. If those operational pieces hold, the narrative may translate into electoral gains; if they fray, the “four Diwalis” may remain an evocative slogan rather than an enduring political legacy.
Ultimately, the coming weeks will determine whether the mixture of faith, fiscal policy, and welfare delivery becomes a winning electoral formula in Bihar’s 2025 contest—or an example of how high‑visibility messaging can outpace the slower, harder work of implementation and trust building.
Source: The Economic Times 'People of Bihar have to celebrate four Diwalis this time...': Amit Shah ahead of polls | The Economic Times Podcast
 
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