A surprising pattern is emerging as the Windows 10 end‑of‑support deadline approaches: publicly available telemetry and independent trackers show measurable growth in Linux desktop usage, while community projects, vendors, and security firms are actively encouraging migration — but the evidence does not support a single, unstoppable “mass exodus.” Instead, the data points to a meaningful, uneven shift: Linux adoption is rising, gaming‑focused Linux usage (including SteamOS) is up, and activist campaigns are succeeding at converting a non‑trivial slice of users stuck on unsupported Windows hardware — though many more users are still opting to buy new Windows 11 machines or enroll in Microsoft’s one‑year ESU bridge. (notebookcheck.net)
Microsoft’s formal lifecycle clock for Windows 10 ends on October 14, 2025. After that date Microsoft will stop providing free security updates, feature updates, and technical assistance for Windows 10 systems — an inflection point that forces four realistic choices for most users: upgrade eligible machines to Windows 11, buy a new PC with Windows 11 preinstalled, enroll in the Windows 10 Consumer Extended Security Updates (ESU) for a temporary bridge, or migrate to an alternative OS such as Linux or ChromeOS Flex. Microsoft’s own guidance stresses Windows 11 as the recommended path, but explicitly points users toward ESU or replacement devices if their hardware is incompatible. (support.microsoft.com)
The debate is about more than convenience. It centers on security, costs, e‑waste, and control over a device’s software stack. That context is crucial for understanding why Linux — once a niche alternative for hobbyists and servers — is now being promoted by projects and vendors as a practical route for millions of otherwise stranded PCs. Campaigns like KDE’s “Endof10,” tools for migration, and endorsements by organizations such as The Document Foundation (LibreOffice) and security vendors illustrate that the Linux ecosystem is both mobilizing and trying to lower the barrier to entry. (neowin.net)
Valve’s Steam Hardware & Software survey — a narrower but highly relevant window into active gaming desktops — also records growth. Steam’s monthly reporting showed Linux (including SteamOS) rising to multi‑year highs (low single‑digit percentages of Steam clients), with SteamOS Holo and a handful of popular distributions occupying the top slots among Linux install bases on Steam. That survey is gaming‑focused and undercounts general desktop Linux, but it is important because gamers are among the more reluctant groups to leave Windows (due to game compatibility), yet they are increasingly using Linux-based solutions like SteamOS on handhelds (the Steam Deck) and PCs. (linux.slashdot.org)
Both datasets point the same way: Linux is climbing from a very small base. That is technically different from a mass exodus, but it means momentum is real and measurable. (notebookcheck.net)
For Linux vendors and the open‑source community, the moment is both opportunity and responsibility: greater visibility attracts new users who need comprehensible migration paths and reliable, documented support ecosystems. Projects that invest in low‑risk migration tooling, partnership programs (for resellers and refurbishers), and clear enterprise offerings stand to gain both goodwill and user base growth. (neowin.net)
However, the narrative that unsupported Windows 11 users are overwhelmingly choosing Linux over all other options is not fully supported by diverse telemetry and marketplace behavior. The data shows a clear trend toward increased Linux adoption, but it is incremental and fragmented across user segments. Practical migration still requires planning, testing, and honest risk assessment — particularly for users dependent on specialized Windows software.
For IT managers, hobbyists, and everyday users facing October’s deadline, the prudent approach is to treat Linux as a realistic, often attractive option — but one that should be approached with the same planning and verification standards as any major OS migration. The 2025 uplift in Linux usage is real and consequential; whether it becomes a multi‑year structural shift will depend on how well the Linux community, vendors, and tooling scale to support mainstream migration needs while Microsoft and OEMs continue to push refresh cycles. (notebookcheck.net)
Source: Neowin 2025 year of Linux? Data suggests unsupported Windows 11 users overwhelmingly choosing one
Background
Microsoft’s formal lifecycle clock for Windows 10 ends on October 14, 2025. After that date Microsoft will stop providing free security updates, feature updates, and technical assistance for Windows 10 systems — an inflection point that forces four realistic choices for most users: upgrade eligible machines to Windows 11, buy a new PC with Windows 11 preinstalled, enroll in the Windows 10 Consumer Extended Security Updates (ESU) for a temporary bridge, or migrate to an alternative OS such as Linux or ChromeOS Flex. Microsoft’s own guidance stresses Windows 11 as the recommended path, but explicitly points users toward ESU or replacement devices if their hardware is incompatible. (support.microsoft.com)The debate is about more than convenience. It centers on security, costs, e‑waste, and control over a device’s software stack. That context is crucial for understanding why Linux — once a niche alternative for hobbyists and servers — is now being promoted by projects and vendors as a practical route for millions of otherwise stranded PCs. Campaigns like KDE’s “Endof10,” tools for migration, and endorsements by organizations such as The Document Foundation (LibreOffice) and security vendors illustrate that the Linux ecosystem is both mobilizing and trying to lower the barrier to entry. (neowin.net)
What the numbers say: modest but visible growth, not a landslide
Linux market share: several trackers, one direction
Multiple public trackers and focused surveys record a lift in Linux usage in 2025. StatCounter data, quoted and analyzed by industry outlets, shows Linux reaching roughly the 4–5% range in select markets and time windows in 2025 — a notable jump from low single digits a few years ago. That kind of movement is statistically meaningful for an operating system class that has hovered around 1–3% on desktops for many years. (notebookcheck.net)Valve’s Steam Hardware & Software survey — a narrower but highly relevant window into active gaming desktops — also records growth. Steam’s monthly reporting showed Linux (including SteamOS) rising to multi‑year highs (low single‑digit percentages of Steam clients), with SteamOS Holo and a handful of popular distributions occupying the top slots among Linux install bases on Steam. That survey is gaming‑focused and undercounts general desktop Linux, but it is important because gamers are among the more reluctant groups to leave Windows (due to game compatibility), yet they are increasingly using Linux-based solutions like SteamOS on handhelds (the Steam Deck) and PCs. (linux.slashdot.org)
Both datasets point the same way: Linux is climbing from a very small base. That is technically different from a mass exodus, but it means momentum is real and measurable. (notebookcheck.net)
How much growth, exactly?
The exact percentage depends on the tracker and timeframe. Where StatCounter-based reporting shows Linux hitting the ~5% mark in some US desktop windows (a jump that garnered headlines), Steam’s Linux share is still inside the single digits globally but has recorded month‑over‑month gains correlating with increased Steam Deck and SteamOS uptake. Those are independent signals pointing to different user segments, and both must be read together to form a complete picture. (notebookcheck.net)Why users are choosing Linux (or considering it)
Windows 11 hardware gatekeeping
Windows 11 introduced a stricter compatibility basement — TPM 2.0, UEFI Secure Boot expectations, and a shorter list of officially supported CPU generations — which excludes many otherwise perfectly serviceable PCs. For many owners the only Microsoft‑approved path to remain on a supported Windows build is to buy new hardware. That commercial logic has pushed people to evaluate alternatives that can extend device life. (support.microsoft.com)Cost and perceived value
Extended Security Updates are available as a one‑year safety valve, but they are temporary and may incur costs or enrollment steps that feel burdensome for home users. The choice to install Linux is therefore framed by many as a way to avoid the immediate cost of new hardware or paid support while keeping a device secure and usable. Security vendors and open‑source projects have explicitly endorsed Linux as a practical alternative for incompatible devices. (neowin.net)Better options for gaming and specialized devices
Valve’s Steam Deck and the maturation of Proton/Wine layers have reduced friction for gaming on Linux. That makes Linux a pragmatic option for handheld gamers and some desktop gamers — not because every Windows game runs perfectly, but because the ecosystem’s toolchain has improved substantially in recent years. The Steam survey’s rising Linux shares reflect this practical improvement. (linux.slashdot.org)Organized migration campaigns and tooling
Community projects are not just nagging from the sidelines: KDE’s Endof10 initiative, The Document Foundation’s LibreOffice outreach, and third‑party migration tools (early‑stage apps that automate data and some settings migration) are actively lowering the technical barrier for newcomers. Those initiatives provide step‑by‑step guidance, local install‑fests, and migration checklists — real commodities for users who are not Linux experts. (neowin.net)Which distributions are attracting Windows refugees?
- Zorin OS and Linux Mint: both position themselves explicitly as Windows‑friendly distributions with familiar desktop metaphors and migration tooling; they are common recommendations for users seeking low‑friction transitions. Zorin OS, for example, has released Windows‑friendly updates in 2025 that include features to ease migration. (news.tuxmachines.org)
- Ubuntu (and flavors): as the largest mainstream base, Ubuntu and its derivatives remain a principal migration target because of long‑term support (LTS) releases and broad driver compatibility. (en.wikipedia.org)
- SteamOS / Valve’s ecosystem: for gamers the SteamOS/Deck experience is a primary driver of Linux adoption; SteamOS variants are prominent in Steam’s Linux reporting. (linux.slashdot.org)
- Windows‑styled skins and projects (e.g., WINUX/Linuxfx): some projects deliberately mimic the Windows user experience to reduce shock for switching users; these can be helpful but also carry additional caution flags (branding, support, and trustworthiness vary). (en.wikipedia.org)
Critical analysis: strengths, gaps, and risk points
Strengths in the current migration narrative
- Real technical viability: Modern desktop Linux distributions support most everyday tasks — web, email, document editing (LibreOffice), media playback, and many developer workflows — with robust security patching and long‑term supported kernels/releases. Community support is strong and increasingly targeted at newcomers. (neowin.net)
- Lower immediate cost: For households and small organizations that cannot afford wholesale hardware refreshes, Linux provides a no‑license‑fee alternative that prolongs device life and reduces e‑waste.
- Momentum in gaming: Improvements in Proton and Valve’s platform mean gaming is a less intractable barrier than in past years, shifting some formerly Windows‑only use cases across. (linux.slashdot.org)
Serious gaps and risks
- Application compatibility and workflow continuity: Proprietary, niche, or legacy Windows‑only applications remain a major obstacle for many users (accounting software, industry‑specific tools, some creative suites). Although Wine/Proton and virtualization help, they are not guaranteed replacements for every scenario. Migrating a home user is often straightforward; migrating organizations with bespoke tools is much harder. This is a central caveat that migration campaigns acknowledge.
- Perception vs. reality for “overwhelming” uptake: Headlines framing 2025 as the “Year of Linux” can overreach. The evidence shows growth but not a wholesale collapse of Windows usage. Many users — especially enterprises, schools, and certain home users — are still buying new Windows 11 machines or using Microsoft’s ESU bridge. The data must be read as incremental acceleration, not an immediate sea‑change. (notebookcheck.net)
- User support and training costs: While a single desktop may run fine after a Linux install, organizational migration requires training, documentation, and occasionally paid support. Those costs are often underestimated in public debates. (neowin.net)
- Trust and vendor quality variance: Not every Linux distribution is equally maintained, audited, or secure. Projects that heavily rebrand or mimic Windows for mass appeal deserve extra scrutiny for update hygiene, license clarity, and vendor transparency. (en.wikipedia.org)
What this means for Microsoft, OEMs and the ecosystem
Microsoft and OEMs have a clear commercial interest in steering users toward Windows 11 and hardware refresh cycles. Their messaging — upgrade to Windows 11 or buy a new PC — is consistent with those incentives. But the rising Linux narrative places reputational and regulatory pressure on the industry: consumer advocates and open‑source projects argue that requiring modern hardware to stay supported is effectively forcing device turnover and generating avoidable e‑waste. The market response is mixed: OEM refresh programs continue, but second‑hand markets and Linux adoption are simultaneously expanding. (support.microsoft.com)For Linux vendors and the open‑source community, the moment is both opportunity and responsibility: greater visibility attracts new users who need comprehensible migration paths and reliable, documented support ecosystems. Projects that invest in low‑risk migration tooling, partnership programs (for resellers and refurbishers), and clear enterprise offerings stand to gain both goodwill and user base growth. (neowin.net)
Practical guidance for Windows users who can’t run Windows 11
- Inventory first — list essential apps and peripherals. If a key app is Windows‑only and critical, migrating without virtualization or compatibility layers is risky.
- Test before committing — run a Linux live USB on the device and verify Wi‑Fi, GPU, audio, and any USB or printer workflows.
- Back up everything — follow the 3‑2‑1 rule: three copies, two media, one offsite. Migration mistakes happen.
- Consider ESU for critical systems — ESU buys time to plan a careful migration instead of a rushed swap that breaks workflows. Microsoft’s consumer ESU is explicitly designed as a bridge. (windowscentral.com)
- Choose the right distribution — pick a distro aligned with your needs: Zorin or Linux Mint for a Windows‑like experience; Ubuntu flavors for driver breadth; SteamOS or a gaming‑oriented distro for play; lightweight distros for very old hardware. (techradar.com)
- Plan for apps — identify alternatives (web‑based, native Linux, or virtualization) and test them. Office workflows can often be handled by LibreOffice or web apps, but compatibility with complex macros and integrations must be verified. (neowin.net)
Migration tooling and community campaigns worth noting
- KDE Endof10: community education and resource collection to help users test and migrate to KDE‑based or other Linux desktops. This kind of coordinated outreach lowers friction for non‑technical users. (neowin.net)
- LibreOffice / The Document Foundation: active messaging about using LibreOffice as a drop‑in document productivity suite during migration, with migration guides and organizational outreach. (neowin.net)
- Third‑party migration utilities: several projects (some experimental) aim to automate file and basic settings migration to Linux. These tools are promising but should be treated cautiously until mature; users should test on noncritical devices first.
Read the data — and the limitations
- The growth signals are authentic: multiple independent trackers (StatCounter‑derived reporting, Valve’s Steam survey, independent Linux outlets) show Linux gaining share in 2025. That growth is the basis for headlines about a “Year of Linux.” (notebookcheck.net)
- But the sample frames differ: Steam reflects gamers, StatCounter samples web traffic and can vary by methodology and geography. Neither dataset alone proves that most unsupported Windows 11 users are switching to Linux. The reality is a mixed set of responses: Linux migration, ESU enrollment, new Windows purchases, and continued risk‑acceptance by a subset of users. Readers should treat “overwhelming” as rhetorical unless tied to a narrowly defined sample. (notebookcheck.net)
Conclusion: a genuine inflection, not a fait accompli
The combination of Windows 10’s end‑of‑support deadline, Windows 11’s hardware bar, stronger Linux migration tooling, and rising Linux gaming support has created a unique window in which the Linux desktop can make demonstrable gains. Those gains are visible and meaningful for enthusiasts, gamers, and some budget‑constrained users. Community campaigns and vendor endorsements lower the barrier, and the technical stack today is far friendlier to newcomers than in years past.However, the narrative that unsupported Windows 11 users are overwhelmingly choosing Linux over all other options is not fully supported by diverse telemetry and marketplace behavior. The data shows a clear trend toward increased Linux adoption, but it is incremental and fragmented across user segments. Practical migration still requires planning, testing, and honest risk assessment — particularly for users dependent on specialized Windows software.
For IT managers, hobbyists, and everyday users facing October’s deadline, the prudent approach is to treat Linux as a realistic, often attractive option — but one that should be approached with the same planning and verification standards as any major OS migration. The 2025 uplift in Linux usage is real and consequential; whether it becomes a multi‑year structural shift will depend on how well the Linux community, vendors, and tooling scale to support mainstream migration needs while Microsoft and OEMs continue to push refresh cycles. (notebookcheck.net)
Source: Neowin 2025 year of Linux? Data suggests unsupported Windows 11 users overwhelmingly choosing one
