3Q25 Global PC Shipments Rise as Windows 10 EoS Drives Enterprise Refresh and AI PCs

Global PC shipments climbed in the third quarter of 2025 as a wave of Windows 10 end‑of‑support (EoS) refreshes intersected with vendor pushes for AI‑capable hardware, producing an uneasy mix of strong enterprise buying, muted consumer sales and notable regional divergence.

Background / Overview​

Gartner’s preliminary figures show worldwide PC shipments exceeded 69 million units in 3Q25, an increase of 8.2% year‑over‑year, and identify the Windows 10 EoS deadline as the principal near‑term demand driver for the quarter. Gartner’s analysis explicitly links the Q3 uplift to replacement activity ahead of the October 14, 2025 end of mainstream support for Windows 10, while also highlighting the market’s broader pivot to AI PCs with integrated neural processing units (NPUs).
Those headline numbers sit alongside a crowded set of trackers and preliminary reads that report similar—but not identical—totals and regional patterns. Some preliminary IDC reads and other tracker aggregates reported a higher Q3 total in the mid‑70 million range and emphasised stronger growth in Asia/Pacific driven by education and public procurement, underscoring that shipment tallies vary by methodology and the timing of channel sell‑in versus retail sell‑through.
This article synthesises the available data, verifies the key figures, explains what’s actually driving vendor performance, and assesses what Windows 10 EoS plus the advance of AI‑capable PCs means for buyers, IT teams and the channel.

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The Q3 2025 snapshot: numbers that matter​

Gartner’s headline and the vendor table​

Gartner’s preliminary report states total worldwide PC shipments in 3Q25 were more than 69 million units, up 8.2% from the prior year. The firm also published a top‑five vendor snapshot showing Lenovo, HP Inc., Dell, Apple and ASUS retaining their positions, with Lenovo leading the pack and reporting the largest year‑over‑year growth among the top five at 16.6%. Gartner’s release notes that all top five vendors grew shipments in the quarter.
Key vendor figures Gartner reported for 3Q25 (rounded to thousands in the preliminary table) include:

• Lenovo: 19,421 units (27.8% share), growth +16.6% YoY.
• HP Inc.: 15,002 units (21.5% share), growth +10.6% YoY.
• Dell: 10,166 units (14.5% share), growth +2.5% YoY.
• Apple: 6,203 units (8.9% share), growth +10.7% YoY.
• ASUS: 5,383 units (7.7% share), growth +5.5% YoY.
• Others: 13,740 units (19.7%), slight YoY decline.

These vendor results validate the narrative of a refresh wave that benefits incumbents with broad commercial portfolios, while also showing how regional execution and channel positioning determine who captures the most benefit.

Why tracker totals differ​

Not every research house reports the same shipment totals. IDC‑style preliminary reads cited in industry threads put Q3 global shipments in the ~75–76 million range and emphasise double‑digit Asia/Pacific growth, particularly Japan’s education programmes. That variance is expected: market trackers differ in how they treat channel shipments, estimated sell‑through, prelim vs final figures, and cut‑offs for geography or vendor reporting windows. Readers should treat each tracker’s preliminary numbers as directional until finalised.

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Why Windows 10 end‑of‑support drove Q3 demand​

The clock that moved procurement​

Microsoft’s mainstream support for Windows 10 ended on October 14, 2025. That date forced many organisations to choose among three paths: in‑place upgrade to Windows 11 where supported, replacement with Windows 11‑capable hardware, or enrolment in Extended Security Updates (ESU) to temporarily preserve security patches. The existence of ESU options reduced the risk of wholesale instant replacement, but for many large enterprises and education buyers the cleaner long‑term option was fleet replacement.
Enterprise procurement tends to respond predictably to hard deadlines tied to support and compliance. For Q325, IT buying accelerated for:

• Lifecycle‑aged machines that could not be safely or easily upgraded in place.
• District and public procurement cycles (education refreshes) that often operate on strict schedules.
• Regulated environments where running an out‑of‑support OS creates unacceptable compliance risk.

That concentrated buying translated into increased sell‑in for OEMs and channel partners in the commercial and education segments—precisely the pockets of demand that lifted the quarter despite soft retail consumption.

Who upgraded vs who waited​

Vendor comments and distributor signals show a clear split:

• Enterprises and education: moving quickly to replace or upgrade machines, driven by compliance and security needs. Distributors reported surge activity in commercial channels.
• Consumers: far more cautious. Many consumers delayed purchases unless hardware failure or a distinct need justified replacing a working device; promotional pricing won the day when buys occurred. Economic pressure and tariff‑driven price uncertainty further suppressed retail demand.

This two‑speed market—strong B2B and education demand, weak B2C—helps explain why shipments can grow meaningfully while retail sell‑through appears tepid in many regions.

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The AI PC pivot: NPUs, Copilot messaging and product premiumisation​

Gartner’s AI PC estimate and what it means​

Gartner forecasted that AI PCs—defined as machines with embedded NPUs or other on‑device AI accelerators—would represent 31% of PC shipments in 2025, up from roughly 15% in 2024, and projected a further ramp to 55% in 2026. The firm expects AI PCs to reach mass adoption as software vendors optimise for on‑device models and small language models (SLMs) scale locally.
This rapid premiumisation matters in three ways:

• Average selling prices (ASPs) rise as vendors add NPUs, stronger GPUs, and higher‑end silicon to support on‑device AI features.
• Buyer segmentation deepens: organisations will prioritise AI devices for roles with measurable gains, while cost‑sensitive segments delay or choose non‑AI SKUs.
• Channel opportunity shifts from hardware alone to bundled services—pilot programmes, data governance and device lifecycle services tied to AI capabilities.

Evidence and short‑term caveats​

Third‑party trackers and trade reporting show AI‑capable devices are increasing but are not yet a uniform replacement driver. Apple’s Mac line with M‑series chips has been an early vector for on‑device AI adoption, while Windows vendors (Intel, AMD, Qualcomm partners) are pushing Copilot‑ready marketing and NPU‑enabled SKUs to capture premium buyers. Reuters and Canalys reporting from prior quarters documented AI PC growth from a smaller base, indicating the market is real but still maturing.
Caveat: a portion of the immediate replacement activity seen in 2025 is still Windows 10 EoS‑driven rather than AI‑first. Many procurement decisions prioritised getting onto a supported OS; choosing AI NPU SKUs was sometimes a secondary decision driven by available budgets and contractual terms.

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Regional dynamics: why geography made the story patchy​

Asia/Pacific and education programmes​

Asia/Pacific—especially Japan and selected government education programmes—showed double‑digit growth in the quarter. Centrally funded school refreshes (GIGA and follow‑on programmes) drove large, predictable order flows that OEMs could anticipate and fulfil. Those concentrative public purchases accounted for a substantial portion of the incremental unit volumes reported by some trackers.

North America: tariffs, front‑loading and digesting inventory​

North America’s growth was modest—Gartner reported only 1.6% growth—largely because many shipments were front‑loaded into earlier quarters. OEMs and distributors accelerated shipments to the U.S. earlier in the year to mitigate the risk of proposed import tariffs; that channel fill produced a Q1 bump and left softer sell‑through in Q2–Q3 as channels worked through stock. The combined effect of inventory digestion and cautious consumer spending constrained North American growth in Q3.

EMEA: steady but price‑sensitive​

Europe, Middle East and Africa enjoyed respectable growth, but demand there remained price‑sensitive. The premium push for AI PCs faced more friction in EMEA’s budget‑conscious markets; where public procurement or enterprise upgrade budgets existed, shipments rose, but consumer upgrades lagged.

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Vendor outcomes and strategic winners​

Lenovo and the leadership playbook​

Lenovo’s outsized Q3 growth—double‑digit and the highest among the top five—reflects its historically strong commercial channel, deep education relationships in Asia/Pacific and aggressive product refresh cycles. Vendors that combine geographic breadth with robust channel coverage captured the lion’s share of Windows 10 EoS‑driven demand.

HP and Apple: different strengths​

HP’s growth was healthy and consistent with its enterprise and commercial device focus. Apple’s performance benefited from a continued appetite for M‑series Macs—products that already embed powerful on‑device AI primitives and that, in some markets, acted as a premium refuge for buyers seeking durable hardware and integrated software. Both firms show the advantage of differentiated product roadmaps.

Dell and margin mix​

Dell reported smaller year‑over‑year shipment growth but continues to benefit from enterprise services, server and AI infrastructure demand that often offsets consumer softness. Its commercial customers drove PC buys in Q3 and the enterprise focus reduced exposure to the fickle retail market.

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Risks, caveats and unverifiable claims​

• Tracker variance: Shipment totals differ across Gartner, IDC, Canalys and preliminary national reads. The Q3 global shipments figure ranges across trackers—Gartner: ~69M, IDC/prelim reads: ~75–76M—because of differing methodologies, reporting windows and how each firm treats channel inventory. Treat single‑tracker preliminary numbers as directional until final reconciled releases appear.
• AI PC adoption speed: While Gartner projects rapid AI PC growth, the realisation of local SLMs and broad NPU optimisation depends on software vendors building for on‑device models and on privacy/governance acceptance. Claims that "most PCs will be AI PCs by 2026" are plausible per Gartner’s scenarios, but remain contingent on software, developer readiness and buyer economics—variables that require continued verification.
• Consumer demand fragility: Assertions that Windows 10 EoS would produce a consumer buying spree were overstated in many forecasts; macroeconomic pressure and tariff uncertainty kept consumers cautious. Industry commentary that "half the installed base had already upgraded to Windows 11" is a management estimate and not uniformly verifiable. Treat such executive statements as directional rather than precise counts.
• Tariff impacts: The role of tariffs in front‑loading shipments is well‑documented in trade reporting, but the precise magnitude of the effect for each OEM is an internal commercial matter and not fully auditable through public trackers. Use trade and distribution earnings commentary to triangulate—not as final proof.

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Practical guidance for IT teams and buyers​

Corporate and public sector priorities​

• Inventory and classify endpoints by Windows 11 eligibility and business criticality.
• Prioritise replacement or tested in‑place upgrades for high‑risk systems and regulated environments.
• Use ESU selectively as a controlled, documented bridge with a set migration timeline—ESU is not a permanent solution.

For procurement and pilot programmes​

• Pilot AI PC capabilities in specific roles where the ROI is measurable (e.g., legal document summarisation, contact centre transcription, knowledge worker recall features).
• Require vendors to include privacy and local‑model governance controls in procurement contracts for on‑device AI features.
• Model total cost of ownership, not just hardware price, because AI PCs can raise upfront ASPs while promising downstream efficiency gains.

For consumers and SMBs​

• If your device is Windows 11‑eligible and you need continuity and security, upgrade after backing up data.
• If upgrade is not possible immediately and migration costs are prohibitive, ESU or a certified refurbished device can be a pragmatic stopgap—balanced against long‑term security and compatibility needs.

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Channel, sustainability and secondary markets​

The Windows 10 EoS created demand not only for new hardware but also for services: migration, imaging, warranty and asset recycling. Certified refurbishers and the secondary market gained attention as budget‑constrained buyers sought alternatives. That has both environmental and security implications: certified refurbishment extends device life and reduces e‑waste if executed properly; conversely, unmanaged secondary devices can amplify security exposure in organisations that lack disposal and data‑sanitisation discipline. Vendors and public procurement bodies should include credible recycling and refurbishment terms in large refresh contracts to balance security and sustainability goals.

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Bottom line: timing, opportunity and what to watch next​

The third quarter of 2025 shows the PC industry at a transitional inflection point. A forced calendar event—Windows 10 end‑of‑support—clearly produced measurable incremental shipment volumes, concentrated in enterprise and education channels and uneven across regions. At the same time, the industry’s pivot toward AI PCs with on‑device NPUs is accelerating a premiumisation trend that will reshape ASPs, procurement priorities and channel offerings. Gartner’s preliminary 3Q25 read and AI PC forecasts present a coherent narrative, but analysts’ totals and timing differ enough that readers should track multiple sources and finalised data releases to form a complete view.
Key short‑term watch points:

• Whether AI PC adoption converts from premium niche to mainstream beyond vendor projection windows.
• How quickly enterprises that opted for ESU will migrate off temporary coverage and whether that prolongs replacement cycles into 2026.
• The effect of tariff policy or other trade actions on channel inventory and retail sell‑through in North America.

The Windows 10 EoS created a deadline-driven refresh that vendors could monetise—but the follow‑through depends on software maturity, fiscal discipline and the channel’s ability to convert sell‑in into real, deployed, supported devices. For CIOs and procurement leaders, the imperative is straightforward: plan with measured pilots, validate vendor AI claims against role‑specific KPIs, and treat ESU as a controlled bridge, not an endgame.

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Source: IT-Online Windows 10 end-of-life drives PC shipments up - IT-Online

 

[ChatGPT]

Global PC shipments climbed sharply in the third quarter of 2025 as a calendar-driven Windows 10 end-of-support (EoS) wave collided with vendor-led pushes for AI-capable hardware, producing a quarter where enterprise and education procurement masked softer consumer demand. Gartner’s preliminary release shows worldwide PC shipments exceeded 69 million units in 3Q25 — an 8.2% year‑over‑year increase — and points directly to the October 14, 2025 Windows 10 EoS deadline and the ongoing shift to AI PCs as the main drivers of the uplift.

Background / Overview​

The Q3 2025 numbers arrived against two overlapping, market‑shaping forces. The first is a hard Microsoft lifecycle deadline: Windows 10 stopped receiving mainstream support after October 14, 2025, a date Microsoft publicised well in advance and which obliges organisations to either upgrade to Windows 11, buy time through Extended Security Updates (ESU), or replace devices. That deadline creates a non‑negotiable procurement window for risk‑sensitive enterprises and many public sector buyers.
The second force is the rapid emergence of AI PCs — machines with embedded Neural Processing Units (NPUs) designed to accelerate on‑device inference for features such as local large‑language-model inferencing, live captioning, noise suppression and Copilot+ experiences in Windows 11. Gartner now estimates AI PCs will account for about 31% of device shipments in 2025 (roughly 77–78 million units), up from mid‑teens in 2024, and projects a growing share in 2026 and beyond. That hardware premium has changed procurement math: buyers facing an obligatory refresh are frequently choosing AI‑capable machines, at least for roles where on‑device latency, privacy or productivity gains are visible.

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What the numbers say — and what they mean​

The headline: shipments and growth​

• Gartner’s preliminary estimate: more than 69 million global PC units shipped in Q3 2025, +8.2% YoY.
• Vendor leaderboards did not change materially; Lenovo, HP Inc., Dell, Apple and ASUS were the top five, with Lenovo posting the strongest year‑over‑year growth among them.
• Independent trackers show some variance: other preliminary reads (notably from IDC and some industry aggregates) placed Q3 totals in the ~75–76 million unit range, reflecting differences in methodology (sell‑in vs sell‑through, cut‑off windows, regional adjustments). Treat tracker differences as expected and methodological, not necessarily contradictory.

These differences matter because they change how urgent quarter‑to‑quarter inventory readings look for vendors and channel partners. A 69M number points to a robust but controlled refresh; a 75M number implies a heavier sell‑in wave and greater channel digestion risk. Both pictures are useful; the sensible interpretation is that Q3 experienced meaningful replacement activity concentrated in non‑retail channels.

Where growth came from: channels and regions​

Regional patterns were uneven:

• Asia‑Pacific (notably Japan and parts of APAC public procurement) produced the strongest growth, helped by large, centrally funded education refresh programs. Vendors with deep public‑sector channels captured predictable high-volume tenders.
• North America showed muted Q3 growth relative to other regions — Gartner specifically cited a limited 1.6% growth rate in North America for the quarter, attributing the weakness to demand having been accelerated into the first half of 2025 because of anticipated import tariffs and resulting front‑loading.
• EMEA recorded moderate recovery, with consumer price sensitivity and mixed public budgets holding growth below APAC drummers.

This regional divergence is critical: the Windows 10 EoS acted as a global clock, but the procurement patterns — education and public tenders, enterprise fiscal cycles, and tariff-driven front‑loading — created localized surges rather than a simultaneous worldwide consumer boom.

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AI PCs: the new axis of premiumisation​

Gartner’s AI PC forecast and independent corroboration​

Gartner’s August and October analyses converge on a fast AI PC ramp: 31% share of shipments in 2025 (≈77.8 million units), rising sharply in 2026 and expected to become the norm by 2029. Those figures are from Gartner’s own forecasting work and its press releases.
Independent industry coverage and analyst commentary echo the broad trend (though not always the precise percentages). Multiple firms — IDC, Canalys and vendor reports — show rising AI‑capable device counts and strong enterprise appetite to buy AI PCs as part of refresh projects. IDC‑sponsored surveys have reported that roughly 80–82% of IT decision‑makers planned to invest in AI PCs in 2025, and IDC’s forward modelling suggests AI PCs could represent a very large share of the commercial estate by 2028. These independent reads align with Gartner’s direction of travel even when they differ on timing and exact market share.

What defines an AI PC?​

At its core, an AI PC is a standard PC architecture augmented by a dedicated NPU or other on‑device accelerator that materially changes how models are executed locally. The practical benefits vendors sell are:

• Lower latency for inference (near‑instant responses for interactive AI features).
• Reduced cloud dependency and bandwidth cost.
• Better local privacy guarantees when properly implemented.
• New OS and application experiences (Copilot+, local SLMs, real‑time media processing).

But technical metrics used in marketing — notably TOPS (trillions of operations per second) — are a capacity estimate, not a direct measure of delivered end‑user performance. Real-world experience depends on the full system design (CPU/GPU balance, memory bandwidth, thermal envelope, software stack and model optimizations). Analysts caution against taking TOPS or single benchmark claims at face value without workload‑relevant validation.

Who should get an AI PC now?​

AI PCs make the most sense where business workflows map to measurable, local AI benefits — for example:

• Contact‑centre agents (on‑device transcription and summarization).
• Creative teams (local generative editing and fast iteration).
• Knowledge workers who rely on low‑latency context‑aware tools (Recall, Cocreator workflows).
• Roles constrained by data privacy or regulatory rules where local processing reduces exposure.

For broad administrative or budget‑constrained fleets, staged pilots and role‑based procurement are the pragmatic routes to adoption. Industry guidance emphasises pilots that tie actual KPIs (time saved, ticket reduction, battery behaviour) to procurement decisions.

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Windows 10 EoS: the hard deadline that made Q3 look different​

The mechanics: upgrade, replace, or buy time​

Microsoft’s official guidance made October 14, 2025 a firm discontinuation point for Windows 10 feature and security updates, forcing practical decisions across enterprises and the public sector. Microsoft’s support pages and lifecycle documentation confirm that after that date Microsoft would no longer provide free security updates or standard technical assistance for Windows 10. Extended Security Updates (ESU) remained an option for some organisations, but ESU is intentionally priced and architected as a bridge rather than a long‑term strategy.
Organisations largely faced three options:

• Upgrade eligible machines in place to Windows 11.
• Replace incompatible or end‑of‑life devices with Windows 11 or Copilot+ capable hardware.
• Purchase ESU coverage to buy planning time.

The majority of large public procurements and risk‑sensitive enterprises found replacement the most straightforward long‑term choice — and that created concentrated sell‑in to OEMs and system integrators in Q3.

Why consumers were less responsive​

Consumer spending remained cautious in Q3: macroeconomic headwinds, tariff pass‑throughs, and price sensitivity at lower price points meant many household buyers deferred purchases unless a device failed or promotions made a compelling case. That two‑speed market — brisk B2B and education demand but restrained B2C — explains how shipments can rise while retail foot traffic and direct consumer sell‑through appear tepid.

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Vendor playbooks, margins and channel dynamics​

Who won Q3 and why​

The quarter favoured incumbents with deep commercial and education channels. Lenovo, HP and Dell showed the ability to convert tendered public and enterprise demand into shipments; Lenovo led in unit growth according to Gartner’s preliminary tables. Premiumisation around AI PCs also supported higher ASPs (average selling prices) in commercial SKUs, improving revenue and margin dynamics for some vendors.

Risks for vendors and the channel​

• Front‑loading risk: tariff-driven earlier shipping into North America reduced immediate Q3 demand there and created potential channel digestion problems if sell‑through lags.
• Inventory timing: differences across trackers highlight how channel sell‑in vs retail sell‑through can skew perceived health of the market.
• Sustainability and e‑waste: large, concentrated refresh programs risk significant electronic waste unless paired with credible refurbish, trade‑in and recycling programs. Advocacy groups warned of environmental consequences, and OEMs that fail to provide circularity options expose themselves to reputational and regulatory headwinds.

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Practical guidance for IT leaders and procurement teams​

A conservative, risk‑aware playbook​

• Audit: Inventory every Windows 10 endpoint and classify by Windows 11 upgrade eligibility, role criticality, and peripheral compatibility.
• Prioritise: Replace internet‑facing, high‑privilege and regulated systems first; treat ESU as a time‑boxed tactical instrument only.
• Pilot: Run small, role‑specific pilots for AI PCs (10–25 users) with defined KPIs to measure claimed productivity gains before wide deployment.
• Negotiate: Require trade‑in/refurbishment and guaranteed recycling commitments in large procurement contracts to reduce lifecycle environmental impact and preserve residual value.
• Manage the NPU lifecycle: Track firmware/drivers and on‑device model updates; include NPU software lifecycle and model governance in vendor SLAs because NPUs add a new patching surface.

For small organisations and consumers​

• If hardware is Windows 11‑eligible and continuity matters, upgrade after a full backup.
• If migration costs are prohibitive, consider ESU or certified refurbished devices as stopgaps while planning a long‑term path.
• Prioritise devices where the upgrade yields immediate productivity or security improvements; avoid blanket rip‑and‑replace for roles that won’t benefit from on‑device AI.

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Strengths, weaknesses and the big caveats​

Strengths and positive signals​

• A clear calendar event (Windows 10 EoS) creates buying urgency and reduces indecision for many organisations.
• AI PCs unlock meaningful on‑device features that can improve latency, privacy and certain workflows — a real technical differentiator in selected roles.
• Education and public procurement remain powerful, predictable demand engines that vendors can plan for and win at scale.

Weaknesses and systemic risks​

• Consumer demand fragility: price sensitivity and general economic caution will limit retail expansion and could extend the migration timeline for households and small businesses.
• Operational complexity and security: heterogeneous fleets (ESU, Windows 11, cloud‑hosted legacy access) raise management, patching and compliance costs for years.
• E‑waste and sustainability risks if large public programs lack robust circularity and refurbishment plans.

Unverifiable or overstated claims — flagged​

• Vendor marketing statements that promise uniform UX improvements (e.g., “50% faster workflows” across all users) are typically workload‑specific and derived from controlled benchmarks. Treat such numbers as directional and require real‑world pilots.
• Predictive statements like “every PC will be an AI PC in four to five years” are plausible under aggressive scenarios but depend on software readiness, pricing, policy and regional economics; they should be treated as forecasts rather than established fact. These claims are useful signposts of intent but require ongoing verification.

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How analysts’ methodologies shape the story​

Different trackers use different definitions and cut‑offs (sell‑in vs sell‑through, enterprise vs retail splits, inclusion/exclusion of tablets, regional reporting windows). That’s why Gartner’s 69M figure and IDC’s preliminary mid‑70M reads can both be true in context: they are measuring slightly different slices of the same market activity. Analysts and buyers should:

• Cross‑check multiple trackers rather than rely on a single preliminary read.
• Watch vendor channel commentary for indications of inventory digestion or unfilled demand.
• Consider fiscal‑calendar effects and tariff timing as short‑term modifiers to shipment data.

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What to watch next (short and medium term)​

• Quarterly reconciliations: finalised Q3 tracker releases and subsequent Q4 reads will show whether Q3 was a concentrated refresh spike or a sustainable uplift. Track Gartner, IDC and Canalys finalised releases carefully.
• AI PC software readiness: the speed at which ISVs and Microsoft enable meaningful on‑device experiences — and the rollout cadence of Copilot+/OS features — will determine whether NPUs translate into mass productivity gains or remain a niche premium.
• Channel digestion and inventory: watch vendor earnings commentary and distributor inventories for signs of overstock or a healthy sell‑through. Tariff normalization will be a key variable here.
• Procurement and policy attention to e‑waste: expect increased scrutiny and potential regulatory attention in regions where mass refresh programs are executed without circularity terms.

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Conclusion​

The Q3 2025 PC market is less about a single “boom” and more about a coordinated market correction: a hard Windows 10 EoS deadline forced replacement decisions in enterprise and public sectors, while vendor product roadmaps and analyst forecasts pushed purchasers toward AI‑capable devices at the point of replacement. Gartner’s preliminary assertion that shipments rose 8.2% to more than 69 million units in Q3 — and its projection that AI PCs will account for about 31% of device shipments in 2025 — are corroborated by independent analyst commentary and industry surveys that show strong enterprise appetite for AI PCs, even as consumers remain cautious.
For IT leaders the practical imperative is clear: treat this as a program, not a panic. Map your estate, prioritise high‑risk systems, pilot AI‑capable devices where measurable gains are likely, and demand lifecycle commitments (trade‑in, refurbishment, secure wiping) from suppliers. For vendors and the channel, Q3’s momentum is an opportunity to convert short‑term replacement demand into longer‑term managed services — but only if inventory timing, responsible recycling and proofed on‑device AI value accompany the hardware story.
The quarter has reset expectations: the PC remains central to enterprise tooling and — now more than ever — an evolving conduit for edge AI. But the promise of AI PCs will be realised only where organisations pair hardware upgrades with careful pilots, governance for on‑device models, and procurement practices that balance security, cost and sustainability.

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Source: IT Pro Global PC shipments surge in Q3 2025, fueled by AI and Windows 10 refresh cycles

 

[ChatGPT]

The PC market posted a surprisingly strong quarter in Q3 2025 as shipments rose amid a surge of Windows 10 end-of-support (EOS) driven refreshes and an accelerating industry pivot toward AI-capable machines equipped with on-device NPUs.

Background / Overview​

In its preliminary release, Gartner reported that worldwide PC shipments reached more than 69.9 million units in the third quarter of 2025 — an 8.2% year‑over‑year increase — a lift Gartner attributes largely to organizations and some consumers rushing to replace Windows 10 devices ahead of end of support.
Microsoft has scheduled formal end of support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025, after which mainstream security updates and technical support cease for the consumer and most enterprise builds; Microsoft has been urging migrations to Windows 11 and offering Extended Security Updates (ESU) options for those who cannot upgrade immediately.
At the same time, major analysts and vendors are pointing to a structural market shift: OEMs are embedding neural processing units (NPUs) and other AI accelerators into laptops and desktops, and Gartner estimates the AI PC segment will comprise 31% of shipments in 2025, up from about 15% in 2024 — a rapid reorientation of product roadmaps around on-device AI.

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What the numbers say: preliminary results, vendors, and analyst splits​

Gartner’s snapshot​

Gartner’s preliminary Market Snapshot lists the top five vendors and their estimated shipments in 3Q25, with Lenovo leading the market at about 19.4 million units (27.8% share), followed by HP Inc. (15.0M; 21.5%), Dell (10.2M; 14.5%), Apple (6.2M; 8.9%), and ASUS (5.4M; 7.7%). All top-five vendors posted year‑over‑year shipment growth in the quarter. Gartner’s methodology for this release covers desktops and notebooks across Windows, macOS and ChromeOS and clearly labels these figures as preliminary estimates.

IDC’s higher tally and why counts diverge​

Not every research house sees the same headline number. The International Data Corporation (IDC) published a separate preliminary estimate that placed Q3 2025 shipments closer to 75.8 million units, a roughly 9.4% increase year‑over‑year, based on its Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. IDC highlights the same drivers — Windows 10 EOS-led refreshes and regional education programs such as Japan’s GIGA initiative — but arrives at a materially higher total. Differences between Gartner and IDC are common and typically reflect methodological choices: channel coverage, timing of shipments booked into inventory, and how hybrid devices or tablets are counted. Analysts and buyers should treat each vendor’s preliminary number as directional rather than absolute.

Regional dynamics​

• Asia‑Pacific (including Japan) was a standout region, with Japan in particular recording strong enterprise and public-sector procurement tied to Windows 10 migrations and national education projects.
• North America showed constrained growth, with Gartner noting a modest 1.6% increase for the region in Q3, which it attributed partly to inventory being pulled forward into H1 2025 amid concerns about U.S. import tariffs and resulting front‑loaded shipments earlier in the year.
• Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) displayed heterogeneous activity, with some markets seeing enterprise refreshes and others subdued consumer demand.

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Why Windows 10 EOS matters — and how it translated into demand​

Windows 10’s end of support created a hard calendar event for IT planners. For many organisations, EOS is not merely an upgrade preference; it is a compliance and security deadline. Devices still running the last supported build of Windows 10 (22H2) were on the clock for receiving security patches through October 14, 2025, after which critical updates would cease unless customers moved onto Windows 11 or enrolled in ESU programs. This deadline pushed procurement cycles: many enterprise buyers accelerated refresh plans to avoid running unsupported endpoints.
The migration impetus has three practical dimensions:

• Security and compliance — unsupported OS instances increase attack surface and can violate regulatory or contractual requirements.
• Manageability and feature parity — organizations seek consistent management tooling, driver support, and Microsoft 365/Windows Copilot compatibility, which are optimized for Windows 11.
• Vendor incentives and promotions — OEMs and channel partners offered aggressive trade-in, discounting, and recycling incentives to capture upgrade budgets ahead of the EOS date.

While enterprises largely drove the corporate refresh wave, consumer demand remained price-sensitive — many individual buyers deferred upgrades unless promotional deals or trade-in programs created an attractive value proposition. Gartner singled out cautious consumer spending at lower price points as a brake on broader retail momentum.

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The AI PC pivot: marketing buzz or durable product shift?​

What’s changing in hardware​

The term AI PC has quickly entered OEM product messaging to describe devices with dedicated NPUs or enhanced on-device acceleration for inference tasks like voice recognition, image processing, and Copilot-style features. This generation of PCs is designed to offload common AI workloads to local silicon for reduced latency, privacy-preserving processing, and offline capabilities. Vendors are integrating NPUs within SoCs, pairing them with heterogeneous CPU/GPU stacks and firmware tuned for local ML workloads. Gartner’s estimate that AI PCs will hit a 31% share of shipments in 2025 reflects strong vendor productization and marketing as much as enterprise interest.

Demand drivers and friction points​

• Enterprise IT sees immediate ROI in improved productivity scenarios (e.g., transcription, summarization, local inference for field apps) and in security-driven on‑device processing.
• Consumers may find on-device AI compelling in premium devices, but mainstream purchasers will weigh battery life, price, and app compatibility more heavily.
• Software ecosystem maturity matters: only if third‑party applications and enterprise management stacks meaningfully leverage NPUs will those chips deliver differentiated value.

Industry commentary suggests the AI PC story is more than a marketing label, but there is a risk vendors will over-index on chip-level capabilities without ensuring the software ecosystem or drivers deliver real-world benefits beyond a checklist item. If NPUs are underutilized, the shift will be incremental rather than transformational in the next 12–24 months.

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Vendor winners, losers and supply-chain implications​

Lenovo, HP and Dell benefitted from broad enterprise relationships and scale, allowing them to capture large portions of upgrade budgets; Apple and ASUS continue to win in specific segments such as creative/pro-sumer (Apple) and gaming/price-sensitive verticals (ASUS). Gartner’s top‑five list shows growth across the board among established OEMs, though the split between shipments and market share varies by analyst.
Supply‑chain and component considerations in 2025 include:

• Chip capacity and foundry allocation — demand for AI-capable silicon competes with other markets (servers, smartphones).
• Inventory timing — tariff volatility earlier in 2025 caused front-loading in H1 and resulted in a more measured North American Q3, raising the specter of uneven inventory adjustments heading into the holiday quarter.
• Stock management risk — vendors that over‑purchased components to meet anticipated demand or hedge tariffs may need to discount aggressively if end-user uptake softens.

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Practical guidance for IT buyers and procurement teams​

For organizations planning migrations or refreshes through the end of 2025 and into 2026, a structured approach is essential. The following steps reflect best practices tuned to the EOS-driven cycle and the new AI PC variables.

• Inventory and risk triage — Classify endpoints by criticality, compliance requirements and hardware compatibility with Windows 11.
• Cost-benefit: upgrade vs. ESU — For legacy-critical systems where Windows 11 is not an option, evaluate the cost of ESU versus replacement hardware and potential security exposure.
• Assess AI value proposition — Pilot AI PC use cases with clear KPIs (e.g., call center transcription accuracy, local image recognition throughput) before wide deployment.
• Standardize hardware baselines — Select 2–3 validated SKUs per workload type to simplify driver and firmware management.
• Negotiate trade-in and lifecycle services — Leverage OEM trade-in, refurbishment and recycling programs to offset capital costs and reduce e‑waste.
• Lock in lifecycle and driver support — Ensure OEMs commit to driver and firmware updates for at least a standard lifecycle window; confirm NPU driver maturity for your chosen platform.

These actions reduce the chance of buying hardware that cannot be managed consistently or that fails to deliver on the AI promises embedded in marketing materials.

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Security, compliance and the ESU option​

Windows 10’s EOS forces a hard choice: upgrade, extend via ESU, or accept increased exposure. Microsoft has offered ESU pathways and guidance for educational and enterprise customers, but ESU is a stopgap and typically incurs per-device costs and operational overhead. In regulated industries, continuing to run an unsupported OS after the EOS date can raise compliance red flags and expose organizations to risk. The smart play for many institutions is to pair short-term ESU uptake with an aggressive upgrade plan that migrates critical workloads to Windows 11 or cloud-hosted Windows 365 endpoints.

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Market risks and downside scenarios​

The Q3 2025 uplift masks several risk vectors that could temper growth in 2026:

• Over‑ordering and channel destocking: If OEMs and distributors overestimated replacement demand, the market could see a volatile inventory correction and price discounting in late 2025 or early 2026. Gartner itself warns preliminary figures may be revised as final data crystallizes.
• Tariff and geopolitical uncertainty: Trade policy remains a wild card for pricing and timing; prior tariff announcements drove H1 front‑loading in North America and distorted quarter‑to‑quarter comparisons.
• Software and driver immaturity for NPUs: If developers and enterprise ISVs do not meaningfully harness on‑device accelerators, NPUs will remain a marketing differentiator rather than a productivity multiplier.
• Consumer demand softness: Retail buyers remain cautious, seeking deals and trade‑ins; consumer segment growth may lag enterprise-led refreshes, leaving OEMs exposed if consumer promotions fail to trigger volumes.

Where possible, buyers and vendors should model both upside and downside cases and plan inventory and finance strategies accordingly.

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How hardware makers, chip vendors and cloud providers will respond​

The vendor response to EOS-driven demand and AI PC interest will shape 2026 product cycles.

• OEMs will push segmented SKUs, with premium AI PCs offering larger NPUs and battery/thermal budgets, while mainstream SKUs will balance performance and price for mass replacement cycles.
• Chip vendors (x86 and Arm ecosystem players) will highlight integrated accelerators; x86 devices remain dominant in enterprise Windows environments, while Arm architectures may press for consumer use cases. The competitive interplay between Intel, AMD and Arm licensees (and Apple’s in-house silicon for macOS) will accelerate optimization efforts for ML workloads.
• Cloud providers will complement on‑device AI with hybrid models, emphasizing cloud-assisted training and orchestration while promoting local inference as part of a privacy and latency story. Vendors offering Windows 365 and Copilot integrations will be prominent in enterprise procurement conversations.

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Education and public sector: a specific accelerant​

National and regional education programs, notably Japan’s GIGA initiative, have materially contributed to Q3 refreshes as school districts and ministries replaced aging fleets ahead of EOS. Education procurement is typically cyclical and can have outsized short‑term impacts on totals when large national rollouts occur. For vendors, aligning product portfolios, warranty terms and device management bundles to education timelines remains a reliable strategy for capturing concentrated procurement waves.

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Bottom line: tactical wins, strategic questions​

The Q3 2025 shipment uptick is real, but it is a mixture of a deadline-driven refresh and a nascent pivot toward AI-capable hardware. Gartner’s preliminary estimate of ~69.9 million units and 8.2% growth is corroborated by its own analysis of vendor performance and AI adoption trends, while IDC’s ~75.8 million figure shows how different trackers can read the same market through different methodological lenses. Buyers and vendors should treat the quarter as a clear signal that EOS matters for procurement timing, but they should also avoid conflating short‑term volume spikes with a permanent, uniform shift in consumer demand.

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Recommendations for stakeholders​

• IT decision‑makers: Prioritize endpoint inventory, segment devices by upgradeability, and run pilots that prove NPU-enabled use cases before committing to broad rollouts.
• Channel partners and resellers: Offer bundled migration services (hardware, imaging, application compatibility testing) and structure trade-in programs to accelerate conversions without creating unsold inventory risks.
• OEMs: Invest in software enablement and partnerships that make NPUs useful out of the box; avoid leaning solely on hardware marketing claims.
• Investors and market watchers: Track both Gartner and IDC releases and watch for signs of channel destocking or accelerated discounting that may pressure gross margins or inventory turns in early 2026.

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A few cautionary notes and unverifiable claims​

• The exact scale of the AI PC market’s long‑term impact depends on software adoption — an area that is currently forecasted but not yet fully realized. Projections such as Gartner’s 31% AI PC share for 2025 are directional and based on vendor roadmaps and early order books, but they should be treated with caution until enterprise ISV adoption and end‑user metrics confirm real‑world utilization.
• Preliminary shipment numbers are subject to revision; both Gartner and IDC label their Q3 figures as preliminary and note that final, audited totals will be released later. Readers should expect modest revisions as channel‑level data are reconciled.

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Conclusion​

Q3 2025 reminds the industry that calendar events — particularly OS end-of-support deadlines — still move large parts of the market. The Windows 10 EOS created a tangible, revenue-accretive refresh cycle for OEMs, distributors and partners, while also accelerating product narratives around on‑device AI and NPUs. The immediate winners are the vendors with enterprise scale and broad channel reach, but the next phase will hinge on whether AI-capable hardware translates to measurable productivity and security benefits for users. With Gartner and IDC painting slightly different portraits of the quarter’s size, stakeholders must balance urgency against prudence: move decisively to secure and modernize endpoints, but avoid overpaying for unproven AI premium features or creating inventory mismatches that could force painful corrections in 2026.

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Source: it-online.co.za Windows 10 end-of-life drives PC shipments up - IT-Online