Q3 2025 PC Shipments Rise 9.4% Amid Patchy Recovery and Windows 10 End of Life

PC shipments climbed again in the third quarter of 2025 — but the recovery is uneven: global volumes reached roughly 75.8 million units, up about 9.4% year‑on‑year, while regional patterns, tariff shocks, education refresh cycles and a halting enterprise migration to Windows 11 have combined to make the PC refresh story decidedly patchy.

Background​

The global PC market has been under the microscope all year as vendors, enterprises and governments balance a steady replacement cycle against trade and macroeconomic turbulence. Analysts point to two simultaneous forces driving shipments in 2025: the continuation of a long‑running corporate and public sector refresh for machines aged through the pandemic years, and the calendar pressure of Microsoft’s Windows 10 end of support on 14 October 2025 — a hard deadline that forces organisations and consumers to choose upgrade, replace, or pay for extended security options.
Yet the simple headline — “shipments up” — hides a more complicated story. Geography matters: Asia/Pacific (including Japan and China) posted double‑digit growth in Q3, driven in important part by Japan’s large education refresh and the so‑called GIGA school programs, while North America showed far weaker growth as tariffs and inventory rebalancing distorted channel dynamics. That split leaves the market with pockets of brisk demand and many pockets of hesitation.

---

Overview: the numbers that matter​

• Global PC shipments (preliminary): ~75.8 million units in Q3 2025, up ~9.4% YoY according to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker preliminary read.
• Vendor leadership remains concentrated: Lenovo, HP, Dell and Apple continue to occupy the top positions globally, though market share moves quarter‑to‑quarter in response to promotions, inventory timing and regional demand.
• Regional divergence: Asia/Pacific led the growth story in Q3, while North America was constrained by tariff disruptions and macro uncertainty. EMEA recorded healthy gains as well.

These headline figures are consistent with prior quarters of 2025 that showed an overall recovery in PC shipments, but also the influence of supply‑side timing (inventory front‑loading ahead of tariff changes) and demand drivers like Windows migration and education sector renewals.

---

Why Windows 10 end of life matters — and what it has actually done to demand​

A proximate deadline that forces decisions​

Microsoft’s formal end of mainstream support for Windows 10 on 14 October 2025 is the clearest single calendar event reshaping PC demand this year. For many businesses and public institutions, that date translates to an operational requirement: devices must be moved to a supported OS, patched via Extended Security Updates (ESU), or replaced. Microsoft’s guidance and ESU programs give organisations routes to delay replacement, but the policy itself creates a predictable push toward hardware changes when devices are not upgradeable.

What this means in practice​

• Organisations with Windows 10‑aged fleets face three main paths: (1) upgrade eligible devices in place to Windows 11, (2) replace machines with Windows 11‑capable hardware, or (3) buy ESU coverage to buy time. Each option carries costs and technical complexity — notably for legacy software or specialised peripherals that may not work on Windows 11.
• The consumer market is mixed. Many consumer PCs are upgrade‑eligible and will receive free upgrade paths; others will remain on Windows 10 or switch operating systems. Microsoft has offered limited one‑year ESU exemptions and reward‑based options to smooth the transition for consumers, but that is a stopgap.

The real effect on shipments​

The Windows 10 deadline is driving refresh activity — but not uniformly. Enterprises with tight budgets or complex endpoint estates are spacing migrations and, in many cases, using paid ESU services while they plan multi‑year refreshes. Meanwhile, the education sector and certain public procurement cycles have created concentrated demand pockets where entire fleets are replaced with modern Windows 11‑capable devices. The result is the mixed picture IDC and other trackers report: solid global growth, concentrated regional booms, and notable weak points.

---

Regional breakdown: where refreshes are working — and where they’re not​

Asia/Pacific: Japan’s education refresh and a wave of public procurement​

Japan stands out as a growth engine in Q3. Local government initiatives — broadly packaged under the continuing evolution of the GIGA School program and “Next GIGA” replacement cycles — have triggered large, planned procurement waves for student and teacher devices, often with modern specifications aligned to Windows 11 or Chromebooks where appropriate. Vendors and system integrators positioned for GIGA refreshes have seen strong demand in Q3.

• Benefits for vendors: predictable, centrally funded replacement cycles; scale buying; repeatable service and support contracts.
• Risks for buyers: compressed procurement timelines, integration challenges with learning platforms, and sustainability concerns around device lifecycle and e‑waste.

Microsoft and OEM case studies from Japan show both public school districts and prefectural boards procuring tens of thousands of new devices in coordinated refresh waves — evidence that large public programs can still move significant unit volumes.

North America: tariffs, front‑loading, and softer end‑user demand​

North America’s performance is more mixed. A combination of US import tariff policies and macroeconomic uncertainty produced a two‑fingered effect: vendors pushed inventory ahead of tariff implementation (creating a temporary shipment surge in earlier quarters), while end‑user demand — particularly among consumers — remained cautious. The Q3 result shows the after‑effects: shipments affected by earlier stockpiling and by cautious buyers who are deferring purchases in the face of higher prices or uncertain returns. Reuters and other trade reporting capture this tariff shock as a real factor in Q3 dynamics.

Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA): steady, but price‑sensitive​

EMEA recorded a noticeable rebound in Q3, helped by enterprise refresh projects and seasonal procurement. However, price sensitivity and currency volatility can blunt consumer replacements, and many organisations are still phasing in Windows 11 as part of multi‑year refresh cycles rather than large, immediate upgrades.

---

Demand drivers and vendor responses​

The Windows 11 transition: adoption is real but uneven​

By mid‑2025, web‑traffic analyses and industry trackers showed Windows 11 finally overtaking Windows 10 in aggregate market share in some measures, and Microsoft’s messaging around Windows 10 end of life has accelerated migrations. Yet there’s an important nuance: desktop/web market share doesn’t automatically translate into enterprise upgrade completion. ControlUp and other enterprise telemetry providers report widespread readiness gaps and significant numbers of corporate endpoints still on Windows 10 or blocked by application and hardware compatibility issues.

• Consumer/retail uptake has been helped by promotions and Microsoft upgrade prompts.
• Enterprise adoption lags due to legacy applications, hardware incompatibility, and the sheer scale of fleet testing and deployment.

This divergence explains why analysts see a prolonged Windows 11 replacement tail that may extend well into 2026 even after Windows 10 reaches its support deadline.

AI PC hype vs practical buying behaviour​

In 2025 the term “AI PC” became a marketing staple — higher‑end SoCs, new Copilot features, and on‑device AI acceleration have been used to differentiate SKUs. That said, the average corporate refresh buyer prioritises compatibility, management, and cost over the marketing gloss of AI features. So while premium AI‑branded devices generate headlines and margin, the bulk of unit demand in many markets is still driven by replacement of older machines, education procurement, and lower‑tier business notebooks rather than a full‑scale upgrade to top‑end AI hardware. Analyst commentary from IDC and Gartner supports this mixed picture.

---

Supplier and channel implications​

Where vendors win​

• Vendors that align product portfolios to public procurement specifications (education, government) and that offer full lifecycle services (deployment, spare parts, device insurance) win in the large refresh programs.
• Strong supply chain agility — the ability to shift assembly footprints away from tariff‑exposed geographies quickly — has become a competitive advantage for Q3 and beyond. Vendors that preposition inventory and provide flexible financing options are better placed to close deals in tariff‑sensitive markets.

Channel challenges​

• Resellers face inventory timing risk: shipments front‑loaded into the channel for tariff arbitrage create a potential inventory hangover if end user demand softens.
• Trade‑in, refurbishment and remarketing services are growing in importance as sustainability and affordability concerns influence both public tenders and consumer choices.

---

Risks and unanswered questions​

1) Tariff policy volatility and inventory hangover​

Tariff announcements create a short‑term incentive to ship, but they don’t create long‑term demand. If tariffs remain in flux, vendors risk being left with channel inventory that will be slow to clear at full price. That can force discounts, compress margins, and create erratic quarterly comparisons. Reuters and other trade reporting make tariff impacts a clear risk factor.

2) The “Windows 10 cliff” is not a single event​

The end of support date is a firm deadline for support policy, but the actual migration is a multi‑year programme for many organisations. The availability of ESU programs — including consumer‑facing limited offers and enterprise packages — means the rate of replacement will depend on cost, urgency and the complexity of software estates. For vendors, that means predictable double‑digit growth is unlikely to be uniform: expect pockets of heavy procurement interspersed with extended ESU buying.

3) Sustainability and e‑waste concerns​

Large public procurement — for example, education refreshes — can deliver scale but also creates disposal and lifecycle questions. Advocacy groups and repair networks have highlighted the sustainability risks of rapid mass replacement if devices are discarded or poorly refurbished. Some estimates in commentary suggest very large numbers of at‑risk devices globally; however, such headline figures vary widely and should be treated cautiously unless supported by robust lifecycle audits. This claim is difficult to verify precisely in the public domain and should be treated as an indicator rather than a hard statistic.

4) Windows 11 momentum vs enterprise reality​

Public metrics (StatCounter, web traffic analyses, Steam hardware surveys) show Windows 11 crossing important market‑share thresholds, but enterprise telemetry paints a different picture: many corporate fleets remain only partially migrated. That disparity increases operational complexity for software vendors and hardware manufacturers who must support mixed environments for years. Analysts warn this creates protracted support costs and a chunkier replacement timeline than many expect.

---

What OEMs, IT managers and buyers should do now​

• Audit device fleets immediately and classify machines by Windows 11 eligibility and business‑critical application compatibility.
• For non‑eligible devices, model the cost of ESU vs replacement, taking into account management overhead, security risk and user productivity loss.
• Prioritise procurement windows where constrained budgets and public tenders align — education projects, end‑of‑year budgets, and corporate refresh waves offer leverage.
• Make sustainability part of procurement: insist on vendor buyback, refurbishment programmes and certified recycling to reduce lifecycle risk.
• Avoid overpaying for “AI PC” premium where the buyer’s workload doesn’t require on‑device model acceleration; match hardware to use case to protect margin and ROI.

These steps help buyers and resellers minimize total cost of ownership while navigating a year of uneven demand and structural change caused by software lifecycles and trade policy.

---

Winners and losers: a practical snapshot​

• Winners
• OEMs and channel partners with strong education and public sector pipelines.
• Vendors that can offer flexible financing, trade‑in and refurbishment services.
• Companies that diversified manufacturing footprints away from the most tariff‑exposed geographies.
• Losers (or at risk)
• Vendors overloaded with pre‑tariff inventory if consumer demand softens.
• Organisations that delayed fleet audits and will face rushed, costly migration projects.
• Markets with weak purchasing power where replacement cycles are being deferred.

---

Outlook: where the market goes from here​

Short term (next 6–12 months)

• Expect continued patchy refreshes: pockets of strong activity driven by government and education, mixed enterprise refresh pacing, and continued consumer caution as pricing and macro factors remain uncertain. IDC’s guidance — that demand for newer Windows 11‑ready PCs will “push well into 2026” — is consistent with the observed patchwork of refresh intensity.

Medium term (2026)

• If tariffs stabilise and inventory normalises, vendor shipments should align more closely with organic replacement demand.
• Windows 11 migrations are likely to continue through 2026 as complex enterprise environments complete staged rollouts.

Long term

• The PC market will settle back into replacement rhythms tied to enterprise refresh cycles, education funding cycles, and consumer hardware renewal patterns — but with more attention paid to lifecycle services, sustainability and software‑driven segmentation (for example, thin clients, Chromebooks and premium AI PCs coexisting in the same account).

---

Final assessment: strength, risks and what to watch​

Strengths

• The market has shown resilience: global shipments rose strongly in Q3 2025 and the Windows transition remains an important, sustained replacement driver.
• Large public programs (education) and planned enterprise refresh plans continue to deliver predictable demand for the right suppliers.

Risks

• Tariff volatility and inventory timing create short‑term spikes that can quickly turn into year‑end overhangs.
• Migration complexity in enterprise environments will prolong costs and create a fragmented endpoint landscape that vendors and software partners must support for years.
• Sustainability and e‑waste are real policy and reputational risks if mass replacements are handled without circular‑economy measures.

What to watch next

• Quarterly tracker updates from IDC, Gartner and Canalys for inventory and shipment normalization signals.
• StatCounter and enterprise telemetry updates for concrete Windows 11 adoption rates; these will indicate whether consumer momentum keeps pace with enterprise migrations.

---

The Q3 2025 PC market shows that a headline recovery — shipments up nearly 10% year‑on‑year — does not mean a uniform rebound. Instead, the industry faces a transition shaped by vendor strategy, government procurement cycles, tariff policy and the real complexities of moving millions of endpoints between operating systems. For vendors and IT leaders the immediate imperative is pragmatic: map fleets, prioritise compatibility and lifecycle outcomes, and handle the Windows 10 support sunset as a prolonged program rather than a one‑day event.

---

Source: IT-Online Despite Windows 10 end of life, PC refreshes are patchy - IT-Online

 

[ChatGPT]

Global PC shipments jumped sharply in the third quarter of 2025 — rising about 9.4% year‑on‑year to roughly 75.8 million units — a recovery shaped less by a broad consumer boom than by an industry‑wide replacement cycle tied to the Windows 10 end‑of‑support and targeted public procurement programs.

Background​

The PC market has navigated a difficult multi‑year reset since the pandemic spike, moving from supply shortages and record demand into a period of inventory normalization and cautious consumer spending. In 2025 the narrative shifted: legacy devices purchased during and before the pandemic aged into replacement windows, and Microsoft’s Windows 10 support timetable provided a hard calendar anchor that encouraged organisations — and some public buyers — to accelerate purchases. Preliminary tracker reads for Q3 2025 show a clear top‑line rebound, but that headline masks an uneven, regionally fractured recovery.
IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker — the dataset underpinning the recent results — counts traditional PCs (desktops, notebooks and professional workstations) shipped to distribution channels and end users; it does not include tablets or x86 servers. That definition matters because the numbers reflect sell‑in activity (units shipped into channels), which can diverge from sell‑through (units bought by end customers) when vendors and distributors adjust inventory timing.

---

Q3 2025 at a glance: key facts and figures​

• Global shipments: ~75.8 million units, up ~9.4% YoY in Q3 2025, according to preliminary IDC reads.
• Top five vendors by market share (preliminary): Lenovo 25.5%, HP 19.8%, Dell 13.3%, Apple 6.8%, Asus 5.9%. Lenovo shipped ~19.4 million units and posted the largest year‑over‑year growth (about 17.3%).
• Regional pattern: Asia‑Pacific (including Japan and China) delivered double‑digit growth, while North America lagged — affected by tariff dynamics and inventory timing. European markets showed moderate recovery driven by enterprise procurement.

These numbers reflect a preliminary IDC read reported across industry outlets; independent trackers (Gartner, Canalys) and vendor disclosures show consistent directional signals for 2025 — growth headed by enterprise and education demand, with consumers more price‑sensitive.

---

Why shipments rose: the Windows 10 end‑of‑support as a forcing function​

A hard calendar date that moves budgets​

Microsoft’s formal transition away from Windows 10 created a predictable demand window that institutional buyers could not ignore. Organisations with large fleets face three main choices for Windows 10 devices as support winds down: upgrade eligible devices in place, buy Extended Security Updates (ESU) as a time‑boxed bridge, or replace hardware with Windows 11‑capable systems. Many public entities and enterprises chose replacement as the lower‑risk, longer‑lifecycle option. That calculus produced concentrated procurement waves rather than a slow, even trickle of buys.

Commercial and education procurement lead; consumers lag​

IT budgets and procurement cycles make enterprises and school districts the natural first movers for compliance‑driven refreshes. In Q3, large government‑funded programs — notably Japan’s school refresh initiatives tied to the GIGA program — contributed materially to shipment growth in Asia‑Pacific. By contrast, many households deferred discretionary replacements due to price sensitivity and higher device landed costs in some markets.

ESU as a safety valve​

The Extended Security Updates program is widely available as a stopgap for organisations that cannot complete migrations immediately, but analysts consistently characterise ESU as a bridge, not a long‑term fix. ESU reduces immediate migration pressure but creates added licensing and management complexity — factors that accelerate organised, planned replacements among risk‑sensitive buyers while allowing price‑conscious consumers to delay.

---

Regional breakdown: where the demand is concentrated​

Asia‑Pacific: the engine of growth​

Asia‑Pacific produced the strongest growth in Q3, with China and Japan standing out. Japan’s centrally funded education replacements (extensions of the GIGA school program) created repeatable, large‑scale procurement cycles that OEMs could plan for and fulfil. The result: predictable sell‑in to meet government tender timetables and a measurable bump in shipments. Outside Japan, growth varied — China’s consumer subsidies and local programs helped, but macro and political headwinds tempered the pace in other APAC markets.

North America: tariffs, front‑loading and a digestion phase​

North America presented the most striking counterpoint. Tariff changes and trade policy uncertainty in 2025 prompted vendors to front‑load shipments into the U.S. earlier in the year to avoid higher duties, producing a tactical spike in sell‑in followed by a digestion period where channels worked through inventory. Reuters and other trade reports documented this front‑loading effect and the resulting “pull‑forward then digest” pattern. The Q3 figures therefore show a muted North American sell‑through despite high channel inventory earlier in 2025.

EMEA: measured recovery, price sensitivity​

Europe, the Middle East and Africa recovered modestly in Q3, supported by business renewals and selective public tenders. However, price elasticity in consumer segments and political macro risks in some countries kept growth conservative compared with APAC’s large public contracts.

---

The OEM picture: winners, strategies and margin dynamics​

Lenovo, HP, Dell, Apple and Asus led the global leaderboard in Q3. Lenovo’s scale and diversified channel strategy gave it an advantage: the company reported the largest unit growth and leveraged both consumer and enterprise channels effectively. At the same time, OEMs are being strategic about which segments they pursue — premium AI‑capable devices (with local NPUs and Copilot+/AI marketing) command higher average selling prices, while mainstream business SKUs and education models compete heavily on value and manageability.
Key vendor dynamics to watch:

• Lenovo: scale advantage and aggressive positioning in AI and commercial deployments.
• HP and Dell: strong enterprise pipelines and service bundles; cautious consumer exposure.
• Apple: growing desktop/laptop footprint driven by M‑series Macs, but smaller unit share versus Windows OEM leaders.
• Asus: solid growth in selected consumer and education segments, but more modest unit volumes overall.

The strategic implication: vendors who pair hardware with deployment, imaging, buyback and lifecycle services are better positioned to protect margins as retail promotions compress prices in consumer channels.

---

AI PCs and premiumisation: a fresh angle on the upgrade story​

A distinguishing feature of the 2025 cycle is the emergence of AI‑certified or Copilot+ devices. These SKUs tout on‑device NPUs, improved integrated GPUs, and software experiences optimised for Windows 11’s AI features. That shift matters for two reasons:

• It raises the perceived benefit of replacing older hardware: buyers can justify spending more if the hardware unlocks local AI features and productivity gains.
• It pushes manufacturers to premiumise parts of their lineups, lifting average selling prices and shifting revenue mix toward higher‑margin SKUs.

Analysts estimate a meaningful, rising share of shipments will be AI‑capable devices through 2025–2026, creating an ongoing product differentiation axis for OEMs. However, premiumisation also raises affordability concerns for price‑sensitive consumers and SMBs — potentially delaying mass retail uptake even as enterprise procurement accelerates.

---

Risks and downside considerations​

1. Inventory vs. demand mismatch​

Shipments measure sell‑in; a front‑loaded channel or an overestimation of immediate sell‑through creates inventory risk and margin pressure. Vendors that shipped aggressively to avoid tariffs in Q1–Q2 2025 faced softer retail demand later in the year — a dynamic that can trigger promotions and thin margins.

2. Tariff and geopolitical uncertainty​

Tariff policy remains an outsized variable for landed costs and supplier footprints. Production shifting away from high‑tariff origins can smooth future volatility but also raises short‑term logistic and cost complexity. Reuters and other trade reports documented material tariff‑led behavior in 2025.

3. E‑waste and sustainability pressures​

Large, concentrated refreshes — especially in education and public procurement — generate e‑waste risk unless paired with credible buyback, refurbishment and recycling programs. Advocacy groups and regulators are increasingly attentive to lifecycle commitments, and OEMs that fail to offer transparent circularity pathways expose themselves to reputational and regulatory risk. Estimates of “hundreds of millions” of at‑risk devices circulating in commentary are directional and should be treated cautiously, but the scale of potential disposal is significant and real.

4. Security and fragmentation​

Organizations that delay migration and skip ESU face long‑term exposure to unpatched vulnerabilities. At the same time, a prolonged, staggered migration creates heterogeneity across fleets — complicating management, patching, and vendor support. IT teams will need disciplined asset inventories and staged rollout plans to avoid creating fragile, hard‑to‑secure endpoints.

---

Practical guidance for buyers and IT teams​

For IT managers and procurement leads navigating the refresh window, the practical path must balance security, cost and operational disruption. A pragmatic playbook:

• Audit every Windows 10 endpoint by hardware capability, business criticality and upgrade eligibility.
• Prioritise replacements for internet‑facing, high‑privilege and compliance‑critical systems.
• Treat ESU as a temporary bridge, not a permanent strategy. Budget for the costs and plan exit timelines.
• Negotiate trade‑in, refurbishment and certified recycling commitments with OEMs to preserve residual value and reduce e‑waste.
• Pilot AI‑capable SKUs before mass deployment to validate real productivity benefits against premium price points.
• Align procurement to fiscal calendars and staged replacement waves to avoid last‑minute premium buys.

These steps reduce the risk of reactive procurement and protect IT teams from the worst effects of a staggered, regionally uneven refresh cycle.

---

Outlook: what comes next for the PC market​

The immediate outlook is for continued, but lumpy, growth through 2026 as migration tails spill over and OEMs monetise premium AI hardware. Several points frame that trajectory:

• The Windows 10 calendar will keep replacement demand elevated through late 2025 and into 2026 for laggards.
• If tariffs stabilise and channels normalise inventories, shipments should reflect a healthier sell‑through profile rather than tactical sell‑in spikes.
• Premium AI‑capable devices will grow as a share of units and revenue, but mainstream affordability constraints will temper consumer momentum relative to enterprise and education segments.

Analyst houses differ on the magnitude of growth, but directionally IDC, Gartner and Canalys all expect positive — if moderate — growth in 2025 driven by commercial cycles and education programs. The timing and concentration of that growth will be uneven by region and segment.

---

Conclusion — a nuanced recovery, not a simple boom​

Q3 2025’s 9.4% shipment rise to ~75.8 million units is real and meaningful, but it should be read with nuance. The market’s short‑term health is being driven by a calendar‑anchored replacement cycle — the Windows 10 end of support — plus targeted education and public procurement in key APAC markets. Tariff policy and inventory front‑loading produced a distorted North American picture that tempers the headline recovery, while the premiumisation of hardware into AI‑capable SKUs reshapes the mix of units and revenue.
For OEMs, the immediate challenge is converting sell‑in momentum into sustainable sell‑through without sacrificing margins; for IT buyers, the task is to balance security and cost while avoiding rushed, high‑cost procurement that creates long‑term lifecycle headaches. For the industry at large, the next two quarters will reveal whether deferred consumer demand converges into a durable upswing or whether regional headwinds keep retail buyers on the sidelines longer than vendors hope.

---

This article synthesises the preliminary IDC shipment readouts reported in industry coverage and places those numbers in the operational context that matters to buyers, channel partners and OEMs. The Q3 surge is a clear signal the PC market is no longer shrinking — but it is a recovery defined by policy, procurement and product mix rather than a single broad consumer rebound.

---

Source: TechSpot Global PC shipments surge as Windows EOL transition fuels upgrade cycle