Q4 2025 PC Shipments Surge Amid Memory Squeeze and 2026 Price Pressures

Global PC shipments closed the holiday quarter with a surprise surge, but that uptick masks a brewing supply shock that could make 2026 a far more expensive and volatile year for PC buyers and builders than most expected.

Background​

The fourth quarter of 2025 produced an unexpected gain for the PC market: global shipments climbed roughly 9–10% year‑over‑year to about 76.4 million units, capping a full‑year recovery after several years of softness. That bounce, however, was driven by a confluence of temporary factors rather than by a sustained, structural revival in demand.
Three drivers stand out:

• The formal end of support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025, which accelerated refresh cycles for consumers and businesses still on legacy systems.
• Proactive inventory moves by OEMs and channel partners responding to tariff uncertainty and component‑price risk.
• A fast‑deepening memory supply squeeze—DRAM and NAND—caused by rapid AI data‑center buildouts that are redirecting production capacity toward server‑grade, high‑bandwidth memory.

Taken together, these elements produced a late‑year buying spike that is likely to be temporary. The critical question for the Windows ecosystem now is whether that pulled‑forward demand masks a longer period of constrained supply and higher prices—and what that means for system configuration choices, aftermarket upgrades, and platform transitions in 2026.

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The headline numbers and what they mean​

Q4 2025: shipments and share shifts​

The reported Q4 shipments—about 76.4 million units, nearly 10% YoY growth—reversed expectations of a flat or down holiday quarter. For the full calendar year, vendors showed positive momentum as well, with market leaders extending gains in several regions.
This jump is important because it came at a moment when vendors otherwise anticipated weakness: consumer budgets were constrained, business refresh cycles remained uneven, and macroeconomic indicators gave little reason for a robust rebound. That the market grew suggests buyers were reacting to external stimuli rather than improving unit economics.

Two caveats​

• The growth is concentrated in the quarter immediately following the Windows 10 end‑of‑support deadline and the period when OEMs were front‑loading inventory.
• Much of the demand was driven by replacement/upgrade urgency and inventory moves—not by expanding new use cases or dramatic adoption of high‑end client AI PCs.

Those distinctions matter because they shape the forward outlook: shipments can be pulled forward, but pulled‑forward demand accelerates inventory depletion and raises the risk of a supply‑constrained 2026.

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Why memory is the fulcrum: DRAM, NAND and the AI pull​

Memory types and the modern squeeze​

Memory is not a single commodity. The market is bifurcating into:

• High‑bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI accelerators and server GPUs—extremely profitable, production‑intensive, and prioritized by manufacturers.
• Server DDR5/LRDIMM for data centers—higher margins and growing allocation share.
• Client DRAM (DDR5, LPDDR5) and commodity NAND (client SSDs) used in laptops, desktops, and consumer devices.

What changed in 2025 is allocation: wafer fabs and packaging capacity are being diverted to HBM and server DRAM projects to satisfy hyperscaler orders. That reallocation reduces the wafer starts available for commodity DDR5 and NAND, tightening the spot and contract markets for client‑grade memory.

Price dynamics​

Contract and spot prices for DRAM and NAND saw sharp uplifts through the back half of 2025. Contract indications and market commentary across independent analyst houses and industry reports point to double‑digit percentage increases in DRAM and significant rises in NAND pricing—enough to materially move a laptop bill of materials (BOM).
To put scale on it: memory typically accounts for 10–18% of laptop BOMs and a larger slice for high‑end systems. A sustained 20–50% increase in DRAM or NAND pricing has direct consequences for system ASPs and OEM margins.

The AI effect​

Cloud providers and AI system integrators place long, high‑volume contracts with memory suppliers. Those contracts often outbid the client market for limited production capacity. When memory makers allocate wafer starts and advanced packaging to these customers, consumer and SMB PC supply gets pushed down the priority ladder.
The result is a classic allocation problem: the most profitable customer gets first claim on scarce supply. For 2026, that likely means hyperscalers maintain consistent supply while OEMs and distributors face tightened allocations and higher contract rates.

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The Windows 10 deadline: a measurable but transient boost​

Microsoft’s end of support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025 created a predictable upgrade window. Many organizations and consumers used the deadline as a justification to replace aging hardware rather than attempt in‑place upgrades, especially where Windows 11 compatibility or Copilot+ PC features were attractive.
This produced:

• Enterprise refresh pockets (organizations budgeting to stay within supported platforms).
• Consumer upgrades driven by free Windows 11 paths where hardware compatibility was satisfied.
• A second‑order effect: OEMs used Windows 10’s retirement as a marketing trigger for refreshed models and bundled trade‑ins.

That uplift accelerated demand into Q4 2025. Importantly, it was event‑driven; once the deadline passed, the incremental urgency evaporates. In other words, Windows 10 retirement created timing effects, not a new baseline level of demand.

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OEM responses: stockpiles, SKU rationalization and pricing strategy​

Pulling inventory forward​

Multiple OEMs and channel partners reacted to tariff rhetoric, distribution risk and memory pricing volatility by front‑loading inventory—buying memory and finished systems earlier than usual to hedge against price rises and allocation shortfalls.
This strategy has immediate benefits (securing supply, preserving promotional cadence) but creates forward risk:

• It masks true consumption trends by moving demand into an earlier quarter.
• It builds inventories that will eventually be sold into a market where demand may be softer.
• It can create cyclical shortages once the shelf stock is consumed, magnifying price moves.

SKU rationalization and memory specification changes​

OEMs may adjust system specifications to preserve inventory and margins. Possible tactics include:

• Prioritizing midrange and premium SKUs that absorb higher memory costs while protecting gross margins.
• Reducing memory configurations offered in entry and mid tiers (for example, fewer 16GB or 32GB SKUs) to stretch available memory.
• Extending life of older, validated designs (DDR4 platforms) because they have predictable supply and lower BOM volatility.

Those changes shift the product mix away from entry‑level volume toward higher‑price systems—another force pushing average selling prices higher even if unit volumes soften.

Pricing and channel implications​

Owing to memory cost pressure, expect OEMs to adopt one or more of the following:

• Raise MSRP and channel prices selectively on new orders.
• Narrow promotional windows and reduce discounting.
• Push trade‑in and bundle promotions to keep ASPs healthy while preserving unit turnover.

For channel partners and smaller regional brands, constrained memory allocations and weaker purchasing power are significant risks—some could lose share if they can’t secure inventory.

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Where the risk lies: winners and losers​

Potential winners​

• Large OEMs (scale players): Firms with long‑standing supplier relationships, global buying clout and in‑house logistics are better positioned to secure memory volumes and prioritize attractive SKUs.
• Memory manufacturers: Suppliers that redirected product to high‑margin HBM and server DRAM benefited from better pricing and stronger profitability.
• Premium PC segments: Business and prosumer buyers are less price‑sensitive; OEMs will focus efforts here to protect margins.

Potential losers​

• Smaller OEMs and boutique brands: Limited buying power and allocation may cause product shortages and lost market share.
• DIY builders and small channel resellers: Spot market spikes and fragmented allocations increase build costs and reduce availability of specific part SKUs.
• Entry‑level buyers: If manufacturers reduce memory specs to preserve inventory, low‑cost systems may ship with lower RAM or smaller SSDs—or simply become more expensive.

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Practical implications for WindowsForum readers: timing, upgrades and building strategies​

Buying timing​

• The late‑2025 spike was driven by temporary incentives; if a purchase is urgent, earlier in 2026 still looks preferable to waiting until memory supply tightens further and OEMs pass on price increases.
• For non‑urgent purchases, watch the first half of 2026: pricing may continue to rise before new capacity and supply rebalancing start to have an effect.

Upgrade and build guidance​

• If building a custom PC today:
• Consider acquiring critical memory parts (DRAM, NVMe SSD) now if you need a specific performance/compatibility window.
• Preserve platform flexibility: choose motherboards with support for both DDR4 (if still available) and DDR5 platforms only when you can secure memory at acceptable price points.
• If upgrading an existing laptop or small form factor PC:
• Evaluate whether the incremental performance of a memory upgrade justifies paying a premium in the current market.
• If the system supports Windows 11, weigh a modest RAM or SSD upgrade against a full system replacement—the former may be the cheaper path in a high‑price environment.
• For business buyers:
• Lock multi‑quarter contracts early for predictable needs.
• Maintain a clear refresh cadence and consider staged upgrades to smooth cashflow.

Warranty, trade‑in and extended security considerations​

Because Windows 10 reached end of support on October 14, 2025, organizations that retained Windows 10 devices may need Extended Security Updates (ESU) or replacement timelines. ESU programs can buy time but are temporary; long‑term security posture favors migration to supported platforms.

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Forecasts and the high‑uncertainty outlook for 2026​

Analyst consensus and OEM commentary converge on a few expectations:

• Average selling prices (ASPs) for PCs are likely to increase in 2026 as memory and NAND cost pressures feed through to finished systems.
• System configurations may be adjusted: fewer high‑capacity consumer SKUs, extended life for DDR4 in entry tiers, and more focus on premium systems where margins can absorb component inflation.
• Volatility will be elevated: sudden contract price movements, allocation shifts and order rebalancing can produce month‑to‑month swings in the channel.

These are forward‑looking assessments, not certainties. Several moving parts—fab capacity ramps, policy/tariff changes, demand elasticity, and hyperscaler procurement behavior—will determine how quickly supply normalizes.

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Critical analysis: strengths in the current environment and major risks​

Notable strengths​

• Market resilience: The PC ecosystem demonstrated demand elasticity in response to an external deadline (Windows 10 EoS), showing that replacement cycles still exist and can be activated.
• OEM agility: Major vendors moved quickly to secure supply and rework product mixes, demonstrating supply‑chain sophistication.
• Producer profitability: Memory suppliers captured higher margins as pricing recovered from the 2022–2023 slump, enabling capital investment in advanced nodes and packaging.

Principal risks​

• Allocation asymmetry: Prioritizing AI and server customers could leave client PC supply structurally constrained for multiple years until new capacity comes online.
• Margin squeeze for price‑sensitive channels: If OEMs push price increases, consumer volumes—especially in the low end—could contract, creating churn for vendors that depend on low‑margin volume.
• Spec downgrades and consumer confusion: Quiet reductions in system memory or storage could lead to buyer dissatisfaction and returns, especially if configurations are not clearly explained.
• Forecast fragility: Many projections hinge on assumed timelines for memory capacity expansion; delays or technical setbacks in fab ramps would extend the shortage and magnify price effects.

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What to watch in 2026​

• Memory contract price trajectories in Q1 and Q2: sharp contract jumps would confirm further ASP pressure for systems.
• OEM public statements about SKU changes and pricing strategies: watch for channel notices and MSRP revisions.
• Hyperscaler procurement patterns: continued heavy ordering for HBM and server DRAM will keep client allocations constrained.
• New capacity announcements and yield risks from memory manufacturers: capacity guidance that fails to materialize can prolong tightness.
• Regional policy and tariff developments that could again push OEMs to reroute or front‑load inventory.

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Final assessment​

The Q4 2025 shipment rebound was real, but it is not a sign that the PC market has returned to a stable growth path. Instead, it represents a temporary bunching of demand triggered by an operating‑system deadline, tariff risk, and a looming memory squeeze. The more consequential story is the structural shift in memory allocation driven by AI and data‑center growth—this is changing the economics of client machines.
For consumers, builders and IT buyers, the immediate takeaway is pragmatic: when upgrades or replacements are needed in the near term, acting sooner can avoid paying a premium later in 2026. For OEMs and the channel, the environment rewards scale, allocation clout and the ability to pivot SKUs and pricing quickly.
The next several quarters will reveal whether memory supply investments and fab capacity ramps can bring relief—or whether higher prices and narrower configurations become the new normal for at least a multi‑quarter window. Until then, expect continued volatility, selective price increases, and a product mix that favors vendors able to secure memory at scale.

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Source: The Verge PC shipments just grew unexpectedly amid RAM shortages