For more than three decades, Microsoft Windows has reigned as the default desktop operating system, a fixture of both professional and home computing. But in 2025, the narrative surrounding Windows has shifted—and not in Microsoft’s favor. The latest usage data, conflicting statements from Microsoft, and the surging appeal of rivals like macOS, Linux, and mobile platforms all combine to chart a steeply competitive new landscape for operating systems. As Windows faces the sunset of version 10, several converging trends may redefine the next era of desktop and personal computing.
Back in 2022, Microsoft reported 1.4 billion devices running Windows 10 and 11. Jump to 2025, and Microsoft now references “over one billion” active devices in public statements, sometimes reverting to “over 1.4 billion” after community and press scrutiny forced clarification. This vacillation triggered rampant speculation: Has Windows really lost up to 400 million users within three years? Or is Microsoft merely massaging the message to fit new strategic priorities?
The confusion matters, as statistical ambiguity is rare for a company of Microsoft’s size. In past decades, Windows’ market penetration was so absolute that granular device tracking seemed superfluous. Today, however, every jump—or drop—carries outsized importance, not only for Microsoft’s prestige, but for the ecosystem of developers, manufacturers, and users who rely on Windows’ ubiquity. According to independent analytics, Windows 10’s share of all Windows desktop installations dropped precipitously: from roughly 70% in April 2024 to about 54% by April 2025. Meanwhile, Windows 11 deployments spiked, with the company touting a 75% year-over-year increase in commercial installations—the strongest growth since its launch.
Yet however Windows’ total active device count is managed in press releases, the broader context is inescapable: Windows' growth has stagnated, and pockets of the user base are defecting to other platforms.
While Windows laptops have long offered a wider hardware variety, Apple’s tightly curated lineup is proving persuasive. The introduction of the M3 and M4 chips further entrenched this narrative, with Apple routinely boasting superior single-threaded CPU results and the kind of energy efficiency that makes MacBooks favorites for mobile professionals and campus warriors.
However, it’s not a one-way street. Microsoft, recognizing the threat, is leaning into a new generation of Windows 11 Copilot+ PCs—especially those based on ARM chips like the Snapdragon X Elite. These are marketed as delivering up to 58% better multi-core CPU performance than the MacBook Air with M3, according to Cinebench 2024, while maintaining parity or exceeding battery life claims made by Apple. Early independent reviews from outlets such as NotebookCheck and AnandTech suggest the Snapdragon X Elite can, under certain conditions, indeed outperform current MacBooks in multi-core tasks. But differences in software optimization, real-world workflows, and the breadth of application support make these triumphs nuanced rather than absolute.
Linux’s mainstream desktop appeal now hinges on several evolved factors:
The overall effect: Windows may still dominate the traditional PC usage share, but the personal computing pie itself is being dramatically reshaped.
But as cloud computing, open-source alternatives, and mobile-first attitudes take deeper root, Microsoft cannot rely on inertia. The margin for error has never been slimmer. The need to genuinely balance innovation with accessibility, and to reassure both enterprise and home users, is existential. If the company stumbles over aggressive AI monetization, hardware lockouts, or neglect of user choice, the slow attrition of the last few years could snowball.
With more competition than ever—and with the consumer desktop no longer tech’s center of gravity—the next decade will be defined by flexibility, transparency, and minimalism. Windows retains a privileged place in tech history, and its future is far from written. But for the first time in a generation, its claim to default status is under real, credible threat from every angle: hardware, software, and, most tellingly, user choice.
Source: Techweez Microsoft’s Windows Usage Slumps as Macs, Linux, and Mobile Take Over
Back in 2022, Microsoft reported 1.4 billion devices running Windows 10 and 11. Jump to 2025, and Microsoft now references “over one billion” active devices in public statements, sometimes reverting to “over 1.4 billion” after community and press scrutiny forced clarification. This vacillation triggered rampant speculation: Has Windows really lost up to 400 million users within three years? Or is Microsoft merely massaging the message to fit new strategic priorities?The confusion matters, as statistical ambiguity is rare for a company of Microsoft’s size. In past decades, Windows’ market penetration was so absolute that granular device tracking seemed superfluous. Today, however, every jump—or drop—carries outsized importance, not only for Microsoft’s prestige, but for the ecosystem of developers, manufacturers, and users who rely on Windows’ ubiquity. According to independent analytics, Windows 10’s share of all Windows desktop installations dropped precipitously: from roughly 70% in April 2024 to about 54% by April 2025. Meanwhile, Windows 11 deployments spiked, with the company touting a 75% year-over-year increase in commercial installations—the strongest growth since its launch.
Yet however Windows’ total active device count is managed in press releases, the broader context is inescapable: Windows' growth has stagnated, and pockets of the user base are defecting to other platforms.
Where Are Former Windows Users Going?
macOS: Apple Silicon’s Impact and a New User Base
Among the primary winners are Apple’s MacBooks, particularly since the company’s transition to M-series chips. With this seismic silicon shift, Apple made the MacBook dramatically more compelling—delivering breakthroughs in performance, battery life, and ecosystem synergy. Recent market share studies credit macOS with an 8.7% to 10.4% share globally (IDC and Canalys), the largest in Apple’s history for computers. For the first time, even die-hard Windows users—especially in the creative industries and among students—are making the switch to macOS, citing superior performance, battery efficiency, and seamless device integration as major draws.While Windows laptops have long offered a wider hardware variety, Apple’s tightly curated lineup is proving persuasive. The introduction of the M3 and M4 chips further entrenched this narrative, with Apple routinely boasting superior single-threaded CPU results and the kind of energy efficiency that makes MacBooks favorites for mobile professionals and campus warriors.
However, it’s not a one-way street. Microsoft, recognizing the threat, is leaning into a new generation of Windows 11 Copilot+ PCs—especially those based on ARM chips like the Snapdragon X Elite. These are marketed as delivering up to 58% better multi-core CPU performance than the MacBook Air with M3, according to Cinebench 2024, while maintaining parity or exceeding battery life claims made by Apple. Early independent reviews from outlets such as NotebookCheck and AnandTech suggest the Snapdragon X Elite can, under certain conditions, indeed outperform current MacBooks in multi-core tasks. But differences in software optimization, real-world workflows, and the breadth of application support make these triumphs nuanced rather than absolute.
Linux: From Niche to Notable, Especially in Public Sector
Linux-based systems, long considered the purview of die-hard techies or server environments, have made meaningful inroads on the desktop—particularly in government, education, and among privacy advocates. European regions such as Schleswig-Holstein (Germany) and cities including Lyon (France) have adopted Linux for whole fleets of machines, primarily citing cost savings, control, and resistance to vendor lock-in. The Document Foundation, which steers LibreOffice, has publicly campaigned for governments and organizations to “Go Linux, not Windows 11,” leveraging the windfall of Windows 10’s planned obsolescence as a call to arms for open-source migration.Linux’s mainstream desktop appeal now hinges on several evolved factors:
- Broad Hardware Compatibility: Most distributions run on aging hardware with no stringent requirements for security chips, contrary to Windows 11’s TPM 2.0 and Secure Boot insistence.
- No License Fees: The economic calculus is almost irresistible for institutions managing thousands of endpoints.
- Enhanced Security & Minimal Telemetry: Privacy-conscious users are increasingly opting for open-source, auditable alternatives.
Mobile and Cloud: PCs Are No Longer the Only Computers That Matter
Another significant contingent of defecting users isn’t shifting to Mac or Linux—they’re leaving the PC category altogether, or using it only for specialized tasks. The ascendance of iOS, Android, and Chromebooks (many of which also run Linux under the hood) has fundamentally changed the notion of what constitutes a personal computer. For large swathes of the global population, especially in emerging markets and among younger generations, the smartphone or tablet suffices for virtually all non-gaming, non-professional computing: browsing, communication, productivity, streaming, and even basic content creation.The overall effect: Windows may still dominate the traditional PC usage share, but the personal computing pie itself is being dramatically reshaped.
Windows 11: The Reluctant Successor Meets an Upgrade Wall
Microsoft had hoped Windows 11 would be the catalyst for large-scale upgrades. In some ways, it’s succeeding: Windows 11’s share among gamers has surged, especially on platforms like Steam, and commercial deployments nearly doubled year-on-year in the business sector. Yet two issues temper this growth:1. Strict Hardware Requirements Shut Out Millions
Windows 11’s requirement for TPM 2.0, Secure Boot, and newer CPUs places it out of reach for many perfectly functional older PCs. Estimates based on market research suggest tens of millions of Windows 10 PCs in use globally can’t be upgraded without new hardware. For cost-sensitive consumers and public institutions, this is a significant barrier, leading to reluctance or outright defection to other platforms—including cloud-based alternatives or Linux distributions designed for older hardware.2. End of Support Forces a Decision
With support for Windows 10 ending in October 2025, Microsoft is offering an Extended Security Update (ESU) program—but at a substantial markup (a 22% rise in ESU costs over the Windows 7 plan). For many, staying on Windows 10 beyond support isn’t economically viable, pushing organizations and users to seriously contemplate alternatives: buy a new PC, shift to Windows 365 in the cloud, or try a non-Windows OS.3. Enterprise Moves Faster Than Consumers
Microsoft reports that “commercial deployment” of Windows 11 has jumped 75% year-over-year—a remarkable growth rate by enterprise standards. Still, many consumers hesitate, largely because their habits, hardware, or budget don’t align with the upgrade narrative, and because alternatives (especially mobile and web-based productivity suites) seem “good enough” for daily tasks.Why This Slump Is Different: A Shift in Market Dynamics
It’s tempting to view the plateau—or slow decline—of Windows usage as a normal ebb in a mature tech market. But this era of stagnation is shaped by several forces unique to the current decade:- Proliferation of Platform-Agnostic Tools: Web-based productivity suites, cloud gaming, and SaaS platforms have decoupled work and play from any single OS.
- Erosion of the Microsoft Office Monopoly: Google Workspace, Apple iWork, and open-source alternatives have eaten into Microsoft’s once-unassailable market share, especially among students and small businesses.
- AI Integration as Differentiator—And Pain Point: Microsoft has aggressively pushed Copilot and generative AI functions into Windows 11, Microsoft 365, and other crown jewels. This strategy is double-edged; while AI-powered features can drive productivity and innovation, their ubiquity also drives up subscription costs and may alienate traditional users who just want basic features to work well.
- Edge Cases and Niche Loyalty: Gamers are sticking with Windows largely due to legacy compatibility and superior support for new GPUs and APIs, but even here, alternatives like SteamOS, MacBooks, and cloud gaming service gains suggest chinks in the armor.
Critical Analysis: Strengths and Risks for Windows’ Next Decade
Core Strengths
- Enterprise Entrenchment: Windows remains the bedrock of corporate IT; most business software, device management protocols, and identity systems are still written for or optimized for Windows. The sheer cost of retraining, migration, and compatibility keeps this moat high for now.
- Developer Tools and Ecosystem: Microsoft’s investment in developer resources, cross-platform frameworks, and backward compatibility keeps Windows essential for software creators and legacy industries.
- Cloud and AI Synergy: Integration with Azure and the Copilot AI suite furthers Microsoft's ambition to be not just an OS vendor, but a platform provider—from the edge to the cloud.
Structural Risks
- Alienating the Consumer Base: Pushing AI and new pricing models into every corner of the Microsoft ecosystem may repel price-sensitive or casual users, many of whom increasingly view Office 365’s AI-powered price bump as unnecessary, if not exploitative. Subscription fatigue and the ease of switching—especially for families and students—pose a real risk to Microsoft’s “sticky” customer base.
- Losing “Default” Status: For generations raised on smartphones and Chromebooks, Windows isn’t the assumed standard anymore. Brand loyalty in computing is dictated less by default settings and more by perceived value—performance, privacy, convenience, and the ubiquity of experience across devices.
- Platform Fragmentation and Software Gaps: With Copilot Plus, ARM-based innovation, and an arms race over NPUs and AI features, Microsoft risks splintering the Windows experience. Fragmentation in software compatibility—especially between x86, ARM, and cloud iterations—could sow confusion or degrade app quality in the shorter term.
- Regulatory Clouds: Class action lawsuits in the UK and scrutiny over cloud practices hint at increased regulatory headwinds, especially regarding licensing costs and corporate competition.
Is This Windows' “End of an Era”—or Just a Pivotal Transition?
Detractors may see the plateau in Windows count as a historic turning point, the start of an inexorable decline from dominance. Yet, caution should govern any eulogy for Microsoft’s OS. Windows remains the backbone of the business world, continues to power premium gaming, and is set to play a critical role in the ecosystem of AI-augmented productivity.But as cloud computing, open-source alternatives, and mobile-first attitudes take deeper root, Microsoft cannot rely on inertia. The margin for error has never been slimmer. The need to genuinely balance innovation with accessibility, and to reassure both enterprise and home users, is existential. If the company stumbles over aggressive AI monetization, hardware lockouts, or neglect of user choice, the slow attrition of the last few years could snowball.
Conclusion: Adaptation Is Non-Negotiable
The computing world has entered a new era where platform dominance isn’t ensured by legacy alone. Microsoft’s challenge is now twofold: to continue innovating, especially in AI and enterprise, while simultaneously addressing the needs and concerns of those users for whom Windows is just one of several viable options. At the same time, the company must quell discontent over perceived price gouging, forced upgrades, and overactive telemetry.With more competition than ever—and with the consumer desktop no longer tech’s center of gravity—the next decade will be defined by flexibility, transparency, and minimalism. Windows retains a privileged place in tech history, and its future is far from written. But for the first time in a generation, its claim to default status is under real, credible threat from every angle: hardware, software, and, most tellingly, user choice.
Source: Techweez Microsoft’s Windows Usage Slumps as Macs, Linux, and Mobile Take Over