The PC market’s summer rebound was no accident: a hard October cutoff for Windows 10 support, strategic inventory moves around shifting U.S. tariff policy, and a nascent push toward on‑device AI combined to deliver a measurable jump in global shipments — and analysts say this is only the opening act of a multi‑year replacement and modernization cycle.
The calendar event at the center of the shipping surge is simple and incontrovertible: Microsoft ended mainstream support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025. After that date, routine security patches, feature updates and standard technical assistance ceased for most Windows 10 editions, and Microsoft published an explicit consumer Extended Security Updates (ESU) program as a short bridge for devices that can’t immediately upgrade. This official lifecycle detail is the starting point for every migration decision made by enterprises, public institutions and consumers in 2025.
Market researchers reported a clear reaction in device shipments. Counterpoint Research’s preliminary Q3 2025 numbers show global PC shipments rising roughly in the 8% range year‑over‑year, a result widely attributed to the Windows 10 EOL deadline pushing both commercial and consumer buyers to refresh aging fleets. Other research houses reported similar rebounds, although estimates vary by methodology and timing (Gartner, IDC and Canalys frames produce differing numeric pictures). Those methodological differences matter, but the directional signal — a meaningful, sustained uptick in procurement activity tied to the OS sunset — is consistent across trackers.
Two other forces shaped the quarter’s numbers. First, evolving U.S. import tariff policy triggered “strategic inventory adjustments” from OEMs and channel partners: some shipments were front‑loaded or reallocated to avoid impending duties, temporarily raising shipment totals without necessarily indicating immediate end‑user activations. Second, vendors and enterprises are already thinking beyond Windows 11: many IT buyers are choosing AI‑capable devices now to future‑proof fleets for next‑generation workloads, creating a twin runway for refresh cycles — current OS migration demand plus an expected AI‑driven replacement wave after 2026.
Source: HotHardware Windows 10 EOL Spurs Big Wave Of PC Upgrades And It's Just The Beginning
Background / Overview
The calendar event at the center of the shipping surge is simple and incontrovertible: Microsoft ended mainstream support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025. After that date, routine security patches, feature updates and standard technical assistance ceased for most Windows 10 editions, and Microsoft published an explicit consumer Extended Security Updates (ESU) program as a short bridge for devices that can’t immediately upgrade. This official lifecycle detail is the starting point for every migration decision made by enterprises, public institutions and consumers in 2025. Market researchers reported a clear reaction in device shipments. Counterpoint Research’s preliminary Q3 2025 numbers show global PC shipments rising roughly in the 8% range year‑over‑year, a result widely attributed to the Windows 10 EOL deadline pushing both commercial and consumer buyers to refresh aging fleets. Other research houses reported similar rebounds, although estimates vary by methodology and timing (Gartner, IDC and Canalys frames produce differing numeric pictures). Those methodological differences matter, but the directional signal — a meaningful, sustained uptick in procurement activity tied to the OS sunset — is consistent across trackers.
Two other forces shaped the quarter’s numbers. First, evolving U.S. import tariff policy triggered “strategic inventory adjustments” from OEMs and channel partners: some shipments were front‑loaded or reallocated to avoid impending duties, temporarily raising shipment totals without necessarily indicating immediate end‑user activations. Second, vendors and enterprises are already thinking beyond Windows 11: many IT buyers are choosing AI‑capable devices now to future‑proof fleets for next‑generation workloads, creating a twin runway for refresh cycles — current OS migration demand plus an expected AI‑driven replacement wave after 2026.
What the Q3 2025 numbers actually said
The Q3 shipment snapshot and the vendor breakdown deserve careful parsing because different trackers use different sampling windows and channel definitions. Broadly, the most widely cited takeaways were:- Global PC shipments rose around 8% year‑over‑year in Q3 2025 — Counterpoint reported 8.1% growth in preliminary figures; Gartner’s and IDC’s numbers land in the same neighborhood though they report slightly different unit totals and regional patterns. This uptick reversed several quarters of weak or flat demand and is unusual because it’s driven largely by forced lifecycle replacement rather than pure demand expansion.
- OEM winners in the quarter included Lenovo (double‑digit growth), HP (solid mid‑single to double‑digit gains), and Apple (continued strong MacBook momentum), while Dell showed either flat or slightly negative year‑over‑year movement depending on which tracker you read. Counterpoint’s vendor ranking called out a 17.4% YoY shipment increase for Lenovo and a roughly 10% rise for HP; Apple’s MacBooks were singled out as a meaningful growth contributor as well. These vendor dynamics reflect commercial replacement programs, channel fill patterns and product cycles (new MacBook models, refreshed PC SKUs with AI NPUs, etc.).
- Important nuance: not all shipments are the same. A portion of the volume growth was tactical inventory movement tied to tariff avoidance; another portion is genuine replacement buying from enterprise procurement teams scrambling to secure replacement machines before software and security policies force a change. That split matters for forecasting whether growth will persist or normalize.
How analysts reconcile conflicting trackers
Different research groups report different unit totals because they use varying definitions (shipments to channel vs. sell‑through to end users), sample OEM disclosures differently and adjust for regional carve‑outs. As a result:- Counterpoint’s preliminary Q3 estimate centered on the OS migration narrative and included a tariff‑related inventory note.
- Gartner’s and IDC’s snapshots emphasized similar momentum but flagged regional heterogeneity — some markets surged while others, notably parts of North America, showed softer consumer demand.
Why Windows 10 EOL mattered — and still matters
The Windows 10 end‑of‑support deadline was a calendar‑driven inflection that converted risk into procurement action across segments.- Security and compliance: For regulated businesses, government agencies and large enterprises, running an unsupported OS is a compliance risk. Vendors and channel partners reported accelerated procurement and staged refresh programs for endpoints with security exposure. The practical business reality is that many IT departments prioritized risk reduction over cost‑stretching, moving purchases forward to ensure supported OS baselines.
- Microsoft’s ESU program is a bridge, not a destination. Microsoft’s consumer ESU offers a limited one‑year extension under defined enrollment mechanics; enterprise ESU pricing is intended as a temporary measure (year‑by‑year pricing that escalates). That structure nudged organizations toward hardware replacement where feasible rather than long‑term paid support. The lifecycle pages and ESU details also made the deadline publicly and unmistakably actionable.
- Hidden technical blockers: Windows 11’s strict compatibility baseline (TPM 2.0, firmware requirements, approved CPU families) means a meaningful subset of Windows 10 devices cannot upgrade in place. Those systems often require full platform refreshes (CPU, motherboard, memory), accelerating replacement demand beyond a simple in‑place OS migration. That technical friction is why many refreshes were full hardware replacements rather than OS‑only upgrades.
The remaining installed base — credibility and caveats
Counterpoint asserted that “nearly 40%” of the current PC install base was still on Windows 10 going into the fall of 2025, making the replacement runway extremely large. That figure is directionally useful, but it is not a single audited census: tracker methodologies, OEM telemetry, and enterprise fleet disclosures yield different estimates (some vendor comments referenced figures closer to “half” in specific contexts). Use these headline percentages as a market signal, not an exact device census.Tariffs, inventory math and the illusion of demand
A surprising subplot to the quarter was how trade policy interacted with procurement behavior and shipment math.- Front‑loading and strategic shipments: When tariff changes were anticipated, some OEMs and distributors shifted production scheduling and shipments to avoid duty exposure. Those strategic inventory moves can temporarily boost shipment statistics while actual end‑user purchases lag or are deferred. Several analysts explicitly called this out as a non‑sustainable component of the Q3 bump.
- Pricing and channel effects: Tariff‑driven supply adjustments introduced short‑term pricing uncertainty and led some retailers to pause or rebalance SKUs. That dynamic pushed certain enterprise buyers to lock shipments sooner rather than risk later price surprises during a security‑driven procurement window. The combination of EOL calendar pressure and tariff timing produced a compact window where channel shipments and enterprise purchases overlapped.
The AI PC thesis: real catalyst or marketing echo?
Beyond the immediate EOL‑driven refresh, vendors and analysts flagged a second, longer‑term growth vector: AI‑capable PCs. The idea is that hardware with on‑device neural processing units (NPUs) and architectures optimized for local inference will become a new replacement justification.- Counterpoint and other firms argue that the market will see another substantial refresh wave after 2026 as organizations increasingly prize on‑device AI capabilities and buy devices with hardware designed for that workload. Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Elite X2 (and Snapdragon X family), Intel’s upcoming Panther Lake/Core Ultra derivatives, and NVIDIA‑accelerated notebooks are all being marketed as part of this AI PC category.
- Practical reality today: Q3 2025 growth was primarily OS migration, not AI adoption. Most enterprise buyers selected AI‑capable devices as a future‑proofing purchase rather than because they immediately needed local LLM inference at scale. The true inflection point for AI‑driven replacement — where on‑device NPU capability becomes the dominant purchase reason — is still anticipated to occur after 2026.
- Challenges to broad AI PC uptake include application readiness (software that actually leverages NPUs), developer tooling, model size and deployment patterns, and cost. While NPU performance is compelling in demos, real‑world enterprise uptake depends on software and management stacks maturing to take advantage of on‑device intelligence. That said, many organizations prefer to buy now and enable later rather than attempt mass replacements mid‑cycle.
OEM winners and losers — reading the vendor signals
Vendor performance during Q3 2025 offers clues about where demand concentrated and which go‑to‑market strategies paid off.- Lenovo led the pack with the strongest YoY shipment growth among major OEMs, benefitting from a broad commercial portfolio and aggressive enterprise programs. Counterpoint and other trackers showed Lenovo posting double‑digit increases, consolidating its leadership in unit share.
- HP strengthened its number‑two position with a big commercial presence that converted refresh demand into shipments. HP’s focus on enterprise lifecycle services and channel partnerships helped it capture a large share of the OS‑driven buys.
- Dell posted mixed results, with some trackers showing a slight y/y decline or muted growth. Dell’s commercial focus means its refresh cadence depends heavily on enterprise budget timing; the migration pattern into late 2025 and 2026 will determine whether Dell’s quarter‑to‑quarter softness is temporary.
- Apple remains one of the rare winners in the mix: timely MacBook refreshes and expanding enterprise adoption translated into another quarter of above‑market growth for Mac shipments in many regions. Apple’s product cycle advantage and enterprise traction allowed it to convert demand even amidst tariff and supply chain noise.
Practical guidance for IT teams and consumers
For organizations and individual buyers navigating the tight window created by EOL and tariff uncertainty, the practical checklist is straightforward and risk‑focused.- Inventory and classify endpoints by risk and upgradeability. Prioritize internet‑facing, compliance‑sensitive, and high‑privilege systems for immediate migration.
- Evaluate ESU only as a bridge for systems that cannot be upgraded quickly; treat ESU as temporary and budget replacement in the medium term.
- For devices eligible for Windows 11, test line‑of‑business applications and drivers in a staged upgrade before mass deployment; driver and firmware issues remain the most common blockers.
- Consider refurbished or trade‑in programs and alternative OS options (ChromeOS Flex, mainstream Linux distros) for devices that cannot meet Windows 11 requirements — these can reduce e‑waste and cost while keeping endpoints supported.
- Start with a security triage.
- Enroll mission‑critical endpoints in ESU only if necessary.
- Prioritize replacements where Windows 11 requirements force full platform refreshes.
- Lock down unsupported machines with compensating controls if replacement is delayed.
The risks and second‑order effects
This refresh cycle contains real upside for vendors but it also creates complex risks for IT leaders, policymakers and the environment.- E‑waste and lifecycle externalities. Rapid hardware replacement risks producing unnecessary electronic waste if trade‑in, refurbishment and responsible recycling programs are not scaled. Repair advocacy and public-interest groups urged more robust trade‑in and subsidy options to avoid pushing functioning devices to landfill.
- Security fragmentation. A mixed environment of Windows 11, Windows 10 + ESU and alternate OSes will create a more complex attack surface for organizations that fail to inventory and isolate legacy endpoints. The end of free updates makes unmanaged Windows 10 machines high‑value targets.
- Supply chain & pricing pressure. Tariff and supply realignments could push prices up or temporarily tighten SKUs in certain markets. That may increase total cost of ownership for replacements, particularly in price‑sensitive public or education segments.
- Forecast uncertainty for AI PCs. Vendors betting on a rapid on‑device AI upgrade cycle must contend with application‑level readiness, enterprise procurement cycles and software vendor support. If AI‑capable hardware outpaces software readiness, there’s a real risk of a modest initial uptake followed by a much larger refresh once the software stack matures — which is precisely the staged market path many analysts now expect.
What happens next — a realistic roadmap
The most likely scenario for the next 18–36 months is a two‑phase market expansion:- Phase 1 (late 2025 into 2026): OS migration and compliance‑driven refresh — enterprises and consumers complete the bulk of Windows 10 migrations, with ESU used selectively as a limited bridge. Shipments remain elevated as procurement completes scheduled refreshes and stranded devices are replaced.
- Phase 2 (2026–beyond): AI‑driven refresh — as software ecosystems mature for on‑device models and NPUs become more integrated into standard SKUs, a second wave of replacement is likely to accelerate purchases of devices explicitly chosen for AI workloads. Vendors that align silicon, OS features and enterprise management for on‑device AI are best positioned to capture this wave.
Final analysis — why this matters to WindowsForum readers
This refresh cycle is not merely a seasonal bump; it’s a structurally important moment for the Windows ecosystem. The Windows 10 EOL created an unavoidable deadline that converted latent risk into purchases. That migration will raise short‑term sales for OEMs and channel partners, but it also creates an opportunity and challenge for IT teams, procurement professionals and policy makers to balance security, cost and sustainability.- For buyers: prioritize risk reduction and lifecycle planning over impulse upgrades; ESU can buy time but should not be treated as a long‑term strategy.
- For vendors and channel partners: those who provide clear migration paths, trade‑in/refurb programs and AI software integration will build durable enterprise relationships.
- For the industry: expect another growth inflection when AI‑capable hardware and software converge; the 2025 OS migration set the stage, but the real test is whether AI experiences become compelling enough to make on‑device NPUs a standard procurement requirement.
Source: HotHardware Windows 10 EOL Spurs Big Wave Of PC Upgrades And It's Just The Beginning
