Windows 10 End of Support 2025: ESU Options and Upgrade Paths

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A nationwide survey published this week shows a worrying level of complacency ahead of Windows 10’s fixed end-of-support date: roughly one-in-four people who still use Windows 10 say they intend to keep running it after Microsoft stops issuing routine security updates on 14 October 2025. That finding — and Which?’s broader estimate that some 21 million people in the UK still run Windows 10 — places millions of devices at elevated risk unless owners act quickly to upgrade, enroll in a short-term support bridge, or adopt other mitigations.

Background​

Microsoft has publicly confirmed that mainstream vendor support for Windows 10 (all consumer and most commercial SKUs) ends on 14 October 2025. After that date, routine OS security patches, cumulative quality fixes and standard technical support will cease for unenrolled devices; machines will continue to boot and run, but they will no longer receive the monthly vendor fixes that close newly discovered vulnerabilities.
To blunt the immediate security cliff, Microsoft introduced a consumer-facing Extended Security Updates (ESU) programme that provides a one-year window of security-only updates through 13 October 2026 for eligible devices. Microsoft also announced two free enrolment routes for many consumers — synchronising Windows Backup to OneDrive or redeeming Microsoft Rewards points — making the ESU effectively free in many cases if the enrolment conditions are met. These special options are an unusual consumer-facing concession compared with the traditional enterprise ESU model.
At the same time, market trackers show Windows 11 adoption has accelerated through 2025, but not everyone has moved. StatCounter and related trackers place Windows 11 ahead in several snapshots while Windows 10 still powers a substantial share of devices worldwide — a fragmented installed base that shapes the scale of the migration problem.

What the Which? survey reports (summary of the key findings)​

  • A quarter (26%) of Windows 10 users said they intend to continue using Windows 10 after support ends, according to the published survey summary.
  • Which? estimates 21 million people in the UK still own and use a laptop or PC running Windows 10. That figure is presented as an estimate extrapolated from a nationally representative poll.
  • Upgrade intentions: 39% intend to upgrade their existing device to a newer version of Windows, 14% plan to replace their computer, 6% would switch to an alternative OS such as Linux, 4% had other plans, and 11% were unsure.
These numbers are the central consumer-facing headline: millions of users are exposed, and a significant minority appear prepared to accept the risk of running an unsupported OS.

Why this matters — technical and practical implications​

Running an unsupported OS is not an immediate “it stops working” event; it is a progressive erosion of security and compatibility. The practical consequences are:
  • No OS-level security patches. Newly discovered kernel, driver and platform vulnerabilities will not be fixed on unenrolled Windows 10 machines after 14 October 2025 — a primary reason Microsoft presses users to upgrade.
  • Rising attractiveness to attackers. Malware and ransomware authors often target unsupported software precisely because vulnerabilities remain public and unpatched for long periods. That elevates the chance of credential theft, ransomware, and fraud.
  • Compatibility and compliance risks. Over time third-party vendors (browsers, security tools, business software) may drop support for older platforms, and organisations that must meet regulatory or contractual security standards will find unsupported endpoints problematic for compliance.
  • Partial mitigations are not substitutes. Microsoft will continue some application-level servicing — for example security updates for Microsoft 365 Apps and Microsoft Defender security intelligence — into 2028. Those protections help, but they do not replace patches for the OS kernel or platform components.

Verifying the headlines: what independent sources say​

  • Official lifecycle and ESU deadlines are confirmed by Microsoft’s support pages: Windows 10 mainstream support ends on 14 October 2025, and the consumer ESU bridge runs through 13 October 2026 for properly enrolled devices. That is the authoritative lifecycle anchor.
  • Multiple reputable outlets (TechSpot, Forbes, India Today, Windows Central and others) have reported Microsoft’s ESU mechanics and the free enrolment options — including the OneDrive/Windows Backup route and the Microsoft Rewards redemption — and examined the implications of those choices for consumers. These outlets corroborate the broad mechanics of Microsoft’s approach while offering additional context and reporting on regional differences and public reaction.
  • Market-tracker snapshots (StatCounter / analyst coverage) show Windows 11 adoption rising through 2025 while Windows 10 retains a large installed base in some markets — a reality that explains why millions still need to choose an upgrade path. Those independent telemetry sources corroborate the scale of the migration challenge.
Important note on the 21 million UK claim: the Which? reporting and the TechDigest article you shared attribute a specific UK figure (21 million). Which? publishes consumer-facing guidance and polling, and it has run related Windows 10 content and tools — but the exact mechanics used to extrapolate the “21 million” figure (sample size, weighting, margin of error) are not fully visible in every secondary report. That means the headline number is plausible and consistent with broader market patterns, but it should be treated as an estimate rather than an audited device inventory. Where a single large number is newsworthy, caution is appropriate: it is directionally useful but not a registry-level count.

What are your realistic options today?​

1) Upgrade to Windows 11 (free if eligible)​

  • Why: Full vendor servicing, current security stack, hardware-backed protections (TPM 2.0, Secure Boot, virtualization-based security), and continued feature updates.
  • Limits: Strict minimum hardware requirements mean many older devices cannot upgrade without unsupported hacks; performance and driver compatibility should be verified before mass upgrades. Use Microsoft’s PC Health Check or Which?’s compatibility tool to confirm eligibility.

2) Enrol in the consumer ESU for a one-year bridge​

  • How it works: Enrol eligible Windows 10 devices to receive security-only updates through 13 October 2026. Microsoft published three enrolment pathways: enable Windows Backup sync to OneDrive (free), redeem Microsoft Rewards points (free if you have them), or pay a one-off fee (where applicable). Enrollment is device- and account-linked and is not automatic.
  • Crucial caveats: ESU is a time-limited bridge, not a long-term solution. It provides security-only updates (Critical and Important) but excludes feature and non-security quality updates. Organisations with compliance needs should not assume ESU equates to full support.

3) Move to an alternative OS (Linux, ChromeOS Flex)​

  • Why: For older hardware that cannot or should not run Windows 11, modern Linux desktops (Ubuntu, Linux Mint) and ChromeOS options (ChromeOS Flex) can extend usable life while restoring regular security updates.
  • Limits: Application compatibility (Windows-only apps, games) and user familiarity are the main barriers; some users will need to retrain or adopt replacement apps.

4) Buy new hardware that ships with Windows 11​

  • Why: Clean transition, longer support horizon, and often better performance and battery life.
  • Environmental note: Responsible disposal is required under WEEE rules in many regions; retailers and manufacturers frequently offer trade-in or recycling programs — and in some jurisdictions retailers must provide safe disposal when you buy a new device. Which? highlights widespread consumer unawareness of these obligations.

A practical step-by-step playbook (home users)​

  • Check which Windows version you’re running: Start > Settings > System > About. If it shows Windows 10, proceed.
  • Run PC Health Check (or Which?’s compatibility tool) to test Windows 11 eligibility. If eligible, back up, then upgrade via Windows Update (free).
  • If not eligible, decide: (a) enrol in ESU using the free OneDrive/Windows Backup option (follow prompts in Settings > Windows Backup), (b) switch to Linux/ChromeOS Flex, or (c) plan a hardware refresh. Ensure you actually complete the ESU enrolment — it’s not automatic.
  • Back up everything now (image + file backup) and verify you can restore. Do not skip verification.
  • If buying a new PC, research trade-in and recycling options; do not dump old devices in general waste — retailers and producers typically offer lawful disposal pathways.

For small businesses and IT teams: priorities and pitfalls​

  • Inventory and prioritise. Tag endpoints into buckets: Upgradeable to Windows 11, Replace (hardware refresh), or ESU interim. Treat high-value and regulatory-exposed endpoints as highest priority.
  • Treat ESU as insurance, not a destination. ESU reduces immediate exposure but does not restore long-term vendor investment nor deliver non-security fixes. Plan migrations during the ESU window.
  • Compliance and insurer expectations. Some regulatory and cyber-insurance frameworks require vendor-supplied patches; operating an OS in extended unsupported status may affect coverage and audit outcomes. Document decisions.
  • Consider cloud-hosted alternatives. For legacy apps, Windows 365 / Azure Virtual Desktop can be cheaper and safer than hardware refresh in some cases, since cloud images can include ESU where applicable. Validate licensing and ongoing costs.

What Microsoft’s concessions get right — and where they fall short​

Strengths
  • A pragmatic bridge. The consumer ESU and continued app/Defender servicing create a multi-year transition path that reduces immediate chaos and helps households and small organisations buy time.
  • Multiple enrolment methods. Giving users two ways to obtain free one-year coverage (Windows Backup to OneDrive or Rewards points) lowers the bar for many households who otherwise would have to pay.
Risks and weaknesses
  • Privacy and regional inconsistency. The OneDrive/backup route requires a Microsoft account and cloud sync; some privacy-conscious users will find that trade-off unacceptable. Moreover, the rollout of free options has seen regional variations, and in certain regions the $30 fee or other restrictions remain contentious. Reported differences between EEA and non‑EEA arrangements have triggered consumer pushback.
  • Limited horizon. ESU is deliberately short-term. Treating it as a long-term policy to dodge upgrades risks larger costs later — technical debt, incompatibility with new apps, and growing exposure.
  • User confusion and inaction. As the Which? survey highlights, a significant share of users either plan to stay put or are unsure what to do. That inaction is the greatest single risk.

Environmental and consumer-protection considerations​

The scale of devices potentially affected raises genuine e‑waste concerns. Analysts and commentators have estimated millions of older PCs could be retired in short order; that raises both environmental and consumer-protection issues. Under WEEE rules in many places, retailers have obligations to accept old devices for safe recycling when sold new equipment; yet public awareness of those obligations is low. Which?’s research shows a large majority of consumers are unaware of retailer responsibilities — an angle that should shape policy and retailer communications during the transition.

How trustworthy are the survey numbers and media coverage?​

Which? is a respected UK consumer group with a track record of polling and practical consumer advice. Its headline — that 26% of Windows 10 users intend to continue running the OS after end-of-support — is plausible and consistent with independent telemetry showing a large installed base of Windows 10 machines. At the same time, any headline extrapolation (for example the precise “21 million” UK figure) depends on sample size, weighting and the modelling assumptions used to project from respondents to an entire national population. Those methodological details matter. Where a precise headcount is quoted, readers should treat the figure as an evidence-backed estimate rather than an audited device registry.

Quick checklist: What every Windows 10 user should do in the next 72 hours​

  • Confirm your Windows version and Windows build.
  • Back up your data (image backup + file sync) and verify the restore.
  • Run PC Health Check or Which?’s compatibility tool. If eligible, plan the free upgrade to Windows 11.
  • If not eligible and you’re not ready to buy new hardware, enrol in ESU now if you want that safety net — remember enrolment is not automatic.
  • If you’re buying a new device, arrange lawful recycling/trade-in of the old machine.

Final analysis — practical advice and the wider picture​

The Which? survey’s topline should be read as a clear consumer warning: many people still plan to remain on Windows 10 beyond Microsoft’s hard servicing cutoff. That decision will increase exposure to cyberthreats, scams and compatibility problems over time. Microsoft’s ESU and the free enrolment options materially reduce the immediate cliff risk for many households, but ESU is a bridge—short, conditional, and not a replacement for migration to a supported platform.
The most responsible path for users and small organisations is straightforward: inventory devices, back up data, test compatibility, upgrade eligible machines to Windows 11, and use ESU only as a controlled breathing space while planning a permanent migration. Where upgrade is impossible, evaluate a well-supported Linux distribution or a hardware refresh — but do not simply “keep going” because doing nothing converts an operational convenience into a future security liability.
This is a transitional moment with three overlapping timelines: the Microsoft OS lifecycle cutoff (14 October 2025), the short ESU bridge (through 13 October 2026), and longer application-level support for certain Microsoft components (into 2028). Acting within those windows, and with an evidence-based plan, will minimise risk — for individuals, households and organisations alike.

Conclusion
The decision to stay on Windows 10 after 14 October 2025 is a real choice with measurable consequence. Which?’s survey underlines how many users are unprepared; Microsoft’s ESU programme and continued app/Defender protections provide a breathing space but not a long-term fix. The practical advice is simple and urgent: back up your PC, check upgrade eligibility, enrol for ESU if you need to, or plan a transition to a supported platform — and do it before the deadlines remove options and increase hazard.

Source: Tech Digest Survey reveals 1 in 4 will continue using Windows 10 even after support ends - Tech Digest