The holiday quarter of 2025 delivered a shock to pundits and procurement teams alike: global PC shipments surged as the Windows 10 end‑of‑support deadline collided with tariff fears and an accelerating vendor push for AI‑capable PCs, producing a late‑year spike that is already reshaping vendor strategies, channel inventories and IT migration plans.
Microsoft formally ended mainstream support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025, a hard calendar cutoff that removed routine security updates and standard technical assistance for most editions and pushed many organisations and consumers to decide: upgrade to Windows 11, buy a short‑term Extended Security Updates (ESU) bridge, or replace hardware outright. Industry trackers reported a clear, directional rebound in PC shipments through Q3 and the holiday quarter of 2025. Multiple analysts — including Gartner and Counterpoint Research — attributed the bulk of this uplift to accelerated replacements driven by the Windows 10 sunset, with headline quarter numbers climbing in the mid‑single to high‑single digits year‑over‑year depending on methodology. That macro narrative, however, hides important nuances: significant front‑loading of channel shipments to avoid prospective import duties, a prioritisation of memory and NAND wafer capacity by cloud and AI customers, and a vendor marketing push to sell premium “AI PCs” with on‑device neural processing units (NPUs). Together, these forces produced a lumpy, holiday‑quarter rebound that looks robust on paper but poses real risks for supply, price and channel digestion in 2026.
Source: EE Times Asia https://www.eetasia.com/2025-holida....com/series/best-windows-apps-this-week-188/]
Background / Overview
Microsoft formally ended mainstream support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025, a hard calendar cutoff that removed routine security updates and standard technical assistance for most editions and pushed many organisations and consumers to decide: upgrade to Windows 11, buy a short‑term Extended Security Updates (ESU) bridge, or replace hardware outright. Industry trackers reported a clear, directional rebound in PC shipments through Q3 and the holiday quarter of 2025. Multiple analysts — including Gartner and Counterpoint Research — attributed the bulk of this uplift to accelerated replacements driven by the Windows 10 sunset, with headline quarter numbers climbing in the mid‑single to high‑single digits year‑over‑year depending on methodology. That macro narrative, however, hides important nuances: significant front‑loading of channel shipments to avoid prospective import duties, a prioritisation of memory and NAND wafer capacity by cloud and AI customers, and a vendor marketing push to sell premium “AI PCs” with on‑device neural processing units (NPUs). Together, these forces produced a lumpy, holiday‑quarter rebound that looks robust on paper but poses real risks for supply, price and channel digestion in 2026. What the numbers say — parsing the trackers
Headline figures and why they differ
- Gartner’s preliminary release put worldwide PC shipments at about 69.9 million units in Q3 2025, an 8.2% year‑over‑year increase, and explicitly tied the rebound to the Windows 10 EoS refresh cycle.
- Counterpoint Research published a similar directional reading, citing +8.1% YoY growth in the same window and emphasising the dual drivers of the OS sunset and tactical inventory moves.
- IDC and other trackers reported higher or lower totals depending on whether they measured sell‑in to channels or sell‑through to end users; by the end of the year some estimates put Q4 shipments near 76 million units as holiday demand and late refresh programs closed out.
Vendor winners and losers
The refresh wave disproportionately rewarded vendors strong in enterprise, education and public procurement channels. Lenovo, HP and Apple (MacBook lines) were repeatedly cited as the quarter’s big beneficiaries, with Lenovo showing especially strong year‑over‑year gains. Dell’s performance varied by tracker and timing of tendered deals, illustrating how channel timing can swing vendor outcomes. Apple’s MacBooks were a notable story: some Windows 10 holdouts used the deadline as an opportunity to switch platforms rather than retrofit older hardware for Windows 11, feeding above‑market Mac growth in the quarter. That platform switching — while not dominant — is materially visible in vendor share movements.Why the Windows 10 sunset mattered
A hard deadline creates procurement urgency
For regulated enterprises, public agencies and many educational institutions, running an unsupported OS is a compliance and security risk. Microsoft’s lifecycle policy and the publicised October 14, 2025 date created a non‑negotiable procurement trigger: IT leaders either had to upgrade devices to Windows 11 where possible, buy ESU to buy time, or replace hardware that could not meet Windows 11’s baseline.Compatibility ceilings forced hardware refreshes
Windows 11’s minimum hardware requirements — including TPM 2.0, secure boot and a limited range of approved CPU families — mean many Windows 10 PCs cannot upgrade in place. Those machines require a full platform refresh (motherboard/CPU/firmware), which converts an OS lifecycle event into a hardware procurement program. That technical reality turned what might have been a gradual migration into concentrated replacement waves.ESU is a bridge, not a permanent fix
Microsoft’s Extended Security Updates (ESU) program provides a time‑boxed bridge for devices that can’t be upgraded immediately, but its escalating pricing and limited duration make ESU a short‑term mitigation rather than a long‑term strategy for large fleets. Many organisations viewed ESU as tactical breathing room, not a substitute for a managed migration program.Supply‑side distortions: tariffs, inventory and memory squeeze
Tariff fears and inventory timing
Announcements or fears of new import duties early in 2025 prompted many OEMs and channel partners to pull demand forward, shipping inventory earlier to avoid potential tariffs. That behaviour inflated earlier sell‑in numbers and altered North American quarter‑to‑quarter dynamics, leaving channels to digest stock later in the year. The net effect: a stronger reported quarter that masks timing distortions.Memory, NAND and the AI pull
Perhaps the most consequential supply factor was the rapid reallocation of wafer and packaging capacity toward server DDR, HBM and other memory types prioritised by cloud and hyperscaler AI projects. That prioritisation tightened supplies of commodity DRAM and client NAND used in laptops, driving contract and spot prices up and raising the cost base for consumer and commercial systems. Analysts warned that the memory squeeze could make 2026 materially more constrained and more expensive for PC buyers. The memory dynamic is not theoretical: high‑margin, long‑term hyperscaler contracts often get priority allocation, and when wafer starts are reoriented to server‑grade memory, the client market suffers. This creates an allocation problem that can show up as higher BOM costs, squeezed mid‑range SKUs and rising Average Selling Prices (ASPs).The AI PC premium — marketing vs. measurable value
Vendors leaned into “AI PC” messaging in 2025, embedding NPUs and touting on‑device inference for Copilot‑style features, local LLMs and enhanced privacy. Gartner and others estimated the AI PC segment would claim a significantly larger share of shipments in 2025 than in previous years. That premium can be rational for specific workloads — creative teams, speech processing, on‑device model inference for latency‑sensitive apps — but buyers should treat vendor claims as hypotheses to validate through pilots. On‑device AI often trades off model size, battery life, and manageability; not every user group will see measurable ROI from NPU hardware. Procurement plays should prioritise pilots with measurable KPIs rather than blanket purchases motivated by feature lists alone.Security, updates and Windows quality: Defender, KB rollups and Insider instability
Microsoft Defender and the CCleaner PUA flag
Microsoft Defender’s PUA (Potentially Unwanted Application) detection flagged the free CCleaner installers because certain free/trial distributions bundle unrelated third‑party software (browser toolbars, antivirus bundles), increasing the risk of inadvertent installs and degraded user experiences. The move illustrates how built‑in Windows protections are increasingly policing installer behaviour and bundling practices — good for user protection but a headache for software publishers with multiple distribution channels. The practical takeaway: use publisher‑verified installers, prefer paid versions that do not bundle extras, and educate end users and support teams to avoid inadvertent installs. Organisations should also account for such detections in their application whitelisting and endpoint protection policies.Patch Tuesday examples: KB5004237 and KB5004245
Microsoft’s ongoing quality and security work included cumulative updates such as KB5004237 and KB5004245, which addressed a long list of security vulnerabilities and specific issues (including printing problems and encryption protections). These rollups carry the usual mix of fixes and the occasional new incompatibility; IT pros must test updates against printing, IME and in‑house apps before wide deployment. The patch lifecycle during a major platform migration is especially sensitive: organisations juggling ESU enrolments and staged migrations must balance the need for security fixes with the risk that a cumulative update will disrupt a fragile, legacy environment. Prioritised testing, phased rollouts and rollback plans are essential.Insider builds and user experience volatility
The Windows Insider pipeline remains a double‑edged sword: preview builds like Redstone 5 Build 17655 (Skip Ahead) and historic big updates such as Build 16226 have introduced meaningful feature changes but also produced disruptive regressions for testers (missing Cortana, restart loops, Edge crashes, device driver issues). These episodes are reminders that large feature updates should be treated as pilots in enterprise settings, not as immediate deployment candidates.Practical guidance for IT and procurement teams
Rapid checklist for organisations during a platform transition
- Inventory and map exposure: identify all devices still on Windows 10 and classify by risk (exposed internet endpoints, critical servers, regulated workloads).
- Validate Windows 11 eligibility: use PC Health Check and vendor telemetry to separate devices eligible for in‑place upgrade from those needing full hardware replacement.
- ESU as a tactical bridge: budget for ESU where migration timelines are constrained, but treat it as a controlled short‑term measure with a clear exit plan.
- Prioritise pilots for AI PC purchases: run targeted PoCs for groups likely to see measurable AI gains (e.g., transcription, local inference tasks).
- Lock down installer practice: for user tooling (e.g., CCleaner), standardise on approved installers and enforce application whitelisting to avoid PUA flags or bundling problems.
Deployment cadence and channel considerations
- Stagger procurement to match deployment capacity. Large batches arriving all at once are worthless if IT lacks the imaging, security baseline and helpdesk bandwidth to deploy them.
- Watch distributor inventories and vendor earnings commentary for signs of overstock or digesting pressure. Channel digestion risk affects warranty claims, trade‑in values and repair timelines.
Cost and sustainability trade‑offs
- Evaluate trade‑in, refurbishment and secure wipe options to reclaim value and reduce e‑waste exposure in large refresh contracts. Contracts that ignore circularity terms risk regulatory and PR fallout.
Risks and the 2026 outlook
The late‑2025 surge masks multiple downside scenarios for 2026:- Memory and NAND allocation to AI/cloud customers could tighten client‑grade supply and push prices higher, forcing OEMs to either raise ASPs, reduce memory specs, or prioritise premium models.
- Pulled‑forward demand creates a hangover effect: having replaced devices in 2025, some segments may buy less in 2026, dampening volumes and pressuring smaller OEMs.
- Channel overstock in North America from tariff avoidance could lead to aggressive promotions, margin compression and longer inventory digestion times that delay real sell‑through metrics.
Critical assessment — strengths, weaknesses and blind spots
Strengths in the market response
- The Windows 10 deadline created necessary urgency, reducing long‑tail risk in enterprise fleets and accelerating the adoption of more secure, modern platforms where organisations could afford to replace hardware.
- The industry’s push toward AI capabilities is catalysing vendor innovation and giving CIOs a chance to rethink endpoint value beyond raw CPU/GPU metrics. For the right workloads, on‑device AI can deliver measurable privacy and latency benefits.
Weaknesses and operational hazards
- The shipment rebound is lumpy and partly tactical; not all shipped units equate to deployed, secured endpoints. Relying on headline shipment growth as a proxy for health misreads the underlying digestion and deployment realities.
- Memory allocation dynamics create a real and immediate supply‑chain vulnerability. If HBM and server DRAM continue to suck up wafer starts, client PC markets will face rising costs and constrained choices that will hit lower‑end buyers hardest.
Blind spots and unverifiable areas
- Estimates of the installed base remaining on Windows 10 varied between trackers and vendor telemetry; headline percentages such as “nearly 40% of devices still on Windows 10” are useful as directional signals but cannot substitute for an organisation’s own inventory audit. Treat such figures as indicative, not precise.
Conclusion: a cautious reset, not a return to boom
The 2025 holiday surge capped a volatile year that was less about a structural revival of consumer demand and more about calendar‑driven replacement, tactical inventory moves and a product reorientation toward AI features. For the Windows ecosystem, the prompt end of mainstream support for Windows 10 forced decisions that vendors monetised and channels recorded as shipments — but converting that activity into durable, profitable demand requires clear workload benefits, disciplined rollout plans, and supply‑chain stability. For IT leaders, the pragmatic path is simple: prioritise security and governance, use ESU only as controlled breathing room, validate AI‑centric device purchases with representative pilots, and insist on vendor commitments for trade‑in and refurbishment to limit e‑waste. The hardware refresh triggered by Windows 10’s sunset is the start of a multi‑year migration and product evolution — not a one‑off victory lap.Source: EE Times Asia https://www.eetasia.com/2025-holida....com/series/best-windows-apps-this-week-188/]
