Apple’s sudden windfall of Mac buyers is the clearest market signal yet that Microsoft’s October 14, 2025 end‑of‑support for Windows 10 turned a long‑running upgrade cycle into a calendar‑driven buying event—and that some users chose to leave the Windows ecosystem rather than wrestle with eligibility, firmware fiddling, or a hurried Windows 11 transition. Counterpoint Research’s Q3 2025 snapshot shows global PC shipments rising by roughly 8.1% year‑over‑year, while Apple’s Mac shipments climbed around 14.9%, a gap that industry trackers and retail channels are interpreting as a measurable migration of Windows‑aligned buyers toward macOS during the compressed refresh window.
The pivot that triggered this quarter’s activity is unambiguous: Microsoft stopped mainstream support and routine security updates for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025. That lifecycle cutoff is not theoretical—Microsoft’s guidance makes clear that while devices will keep booting, they will no longer receive security fixes, feature updates, or standard technical support after that date, and the company published an Extended Security Updates (ESU) option as a short‑term bridge.
Most market trackers reported a pronounced Q3 2025 recovery in shipments. Counterpoint attributed the bump mainly to the Windows 10 sunset plus inventory timing around import tariffs and logged Apple’s outperformance within that rebound. Independently, Gartner and IDC published preliminary Q3 figures that landed in the same directional neighborhood—Gartner around ~69.9 million units (+8.2% YoY) and IDC with a higher preliminary total in the mid‑70s million range (+~9.4% YoY)—confirming a broad, industry‑wide refresh.
This is the setting in which Apple’s Mac lineup—new MacBook models and updated Apple Silicon—found a receptive audience among users suddenly forced to replace devices or to pick a safer, longer‑lived platform.
For organizations with Windows‑only LOB apps, GPU‑dependent workloads, or custom drivers, the right answer is usually hybrid: preserve Windows where required, pilot macOS for knowledge workers, and use virtualization or cloud Windows for exceptions. ESU buys time but is not a strategic substitute for a migration plan.
Finally, buyers must run the math, test real workloads, and avoid letting a calendar alone drive a panic purchase. The Q3 numbers prove one thing: a hard software lifecycle date forces decisions. The best outcomes will go to organizations and users that convert that urgency into disciplined piloting, verification, and conservative cost modeling—rather than to those who simply follow marketing momentum.
Source: TechRadar Apple’s MacBooks are cashing in on Microsoft’s Windows 10 exit
Background / Overview
The pivot that triggered this quarter’s activity is unambiguous: Microsoft stopped mainstream support and routine security updates for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025. That lifecycle cutoff is not theoretical—Microsoft’s guidance makes clear that while devices will keep booting, they will no longer receive security fixes, feature updates, or standard technical support after that date, and the company published an Extended Security Updates (ESU) option as a short‑term bridge. Most market trackers reported a pronounced Q3 2025 recovery in shipments. Counterpoint attributed the bump mainly to the Windows 10 sunset plus inventory timing around import tariffs and logged Apple’s outperformance within that rebound. Independently, Gartner and IDC published preliminary Q3 figures that landed in the same directional neighborhood—Gartner around ~69.9 million units (+8.2% YoY) and IDC with a higher preliminary total in the mid‑70s million range (+~9.4% YoY)—confirming a broad, industry‑wide refresh.
This is the setting in which Apple’s Mac lineup—new MacBook models and updated Apple Silicon—found a receptive audience among users suddenly forced to replace devices or to pick a safer, longer‑lived platform.
Why MacBooks benefited: practical drivers
1. A hard deadline made procurement immediate
Lifecycle deadlines convert planning into action. For many organizations—schools, government bodies, and regulated enterprises—the choice after October 14 was not philosophical: unsupported endpoints become audit and security risks. That forced procurement teams to accelerate purchases and, when hardware or firmware prevented an in‑place Windows 11 upgrade, to consider alternatives. Counterpoint explicitly ties the Q3 uplift to the Windows 10 sunset and “strategic inventory adjustments.”2. Windows 11’s baseline requirements excluded many devices
Windows 11 requires hardware features that some older but otherwise capable machines lack—most notably TPM 2.0 and UEFI/Secure Boot. Microsoft documents TPM 2.0 as a non‑optional security prerequisite for a supported Windows 11 install; many PCs either shipped without a physically present TPM 2.0 or left firmware settings disabled, forcing users into device replacement or complex BIOS/firmware workarounds. That binary compatibility barrier turned a software migration into a hardware decision for a significant installed base.3. Apple’s timing and product cycle
Apple’s refreshed MacBook line—featuring successive M‑series silicon—arrived at a moment when buyers prioritized battery life, long‑term OS support, and on‑device performance. For users who run cloud‑centric productivity suites (Microsoft 365, Google Workspace) and rely on browser‑based workflows, macOS is a low‑friction substitute: the core collaboration and productivity apps are available and maintained on Mac, reducing the perceived cost of switching. Counterpoint and multiple outlets note that Apple’s trade‑in programs, retail promotions, and residual value advantages narrowed the effective price gap in Q3–Q4 buying windows.4. Simpler lifecycle math for many small teams and freelancers
Small teams and freelancers without dedicated IT staff found macOS attractive because Apple’s integrated hardware‑software update model, relatively homogeneous drivers, and higher resale values reduce administrative overhead. For many, buying a Mac removed a year of ESU complexity, firmware toggling, and driver headaches. That operational simplicity is a practical selling point, not just an aesthetic or brand preference.The numbers at a glance (what trackers reported)
- Counterpoint Research (Q3 2025): global PC shipments +8.1% YoY; Apple Mac shipments +14.9% YoY.
- Gartner (Q3 2025 preliminary): worldwide PC shipments ~69.9 million units (+8.2% YoY), with a refresh wave attributed largely to Windows 10 EoS.
- IDC (Q3 2025 preliminary): total shipments ~75.8–75.9 million units (+~9.4% YoY), reflecting different methodology and channel coverage than Gartner.
Practical analysis: strengths of Apple’s gains
- Product coherence and longevity: Apple’s control over silicon and macOS lets it promise multiyear support and predictable updates, which matters when buyers are risk‑averse about an unsupported OS. That message resonated in late‑2025 procurement.
- Performance per watt: M‑series chips deliver strong battery life and sustained performance for many creative and knowledge‑work workloads—appealing when buyers compare refresh economics. (Note: specific M‑series performance claims should be validated against third‑party benchmarks for workload parity.)
- Trade‑in economics: Higher residual values for Apple devices materially change total cost of ownership calculations for time‑sensitive upgrades. Counterpoint and retailer analyses flagged trade‑ins and promotions as contributors to Q3 Mac demand.
- Enterprise pilots: A rising number of enterprises tested Mac adoption in mixed environments and expanded pilots for knowledge workers, aided by virtualization and MDM tooling that reduce migration friction.
Risks, limits and caveats
The headline media narrative—“Windows 10 expiry causes mass platform switching to macOS”—is directionally true, but it requires nuance.- One quarter does not equal wholesale platform realignment. Counterpoint’s Mac growth is meaningful but came alongside double‑digit growth for several Windows OEMs (Lenovo, ASUS, HP). Many buyers still chose Windows 11‑capable hardware. Market concentration remains strong among the top five vendors, and Apple’s total share is still far behind Windows OEMs in absolute volume. Treat Q3 as evidence of opportunity, not inevitability.
- Line‑of‑business (LOB) lock‑ins persist. Organizations with Windows‑only LOB apps, specialized drivers, lab instruments, or GPU‑heavy workloads generally cannot migrate without virtualization or reengineering. Virtualization (cloud Windows, Parallels Desktop) is a practical bridge for many apps, but it introduces licensing, peripheral compatibility, and performance tradeoffs that must be validated on a per‑app basis.
- TPM and hardware workarounds are messy. There are ways to bypass Windows 11 checks, and some firmware updates can enable TPM 2.0 where physically present. However, Microsoft strongly recommends supported hardware and has removed earlier “soft” bypass guidance. Running Windows 11 on unsupported hardware invites update, stability, and security risks. Buyers should not treat registry tweaks or unsupported installs as a long‑term solution.
- Some vendor performance and AI claims need independent verification. Vendor TOPS numbers, NPU specs, and marketing claims about on‑device AI are directional signals. Procurement teams must demand workload‑specific benchmarking rather than relying on headline TOPS or theoretical throughput. Flag: vendor AI claims and M‑series numbers cited in press coverage are useful but not a substitute for independent testing in real workflows.
What this means for specific buyer groups
Freelancers, solo operators, and small businesses
- For those with cloud‑first workflows and limited external device dependencies, switching to a Mac often reduces support burden and simplifies security posture. Trade‑in credits and refurbished Macs can make the economics appealing. Use ESU as a short bridge only if immediate replacement is unaffordable.
Knowledge workers at mid‑size companies
- Mac pilots for knowledge workers are now a mainstream, justifiable choice—especially when paired with an MDM, Parallels or cloud Windows, and clear policies for LOB app access. A cautious, measured pilot (30–90 days) reduces risk and surfaces unexpected compatibility issues before committing at scale.
Large enterprises and regulated organizations
- Windows still dominates where domain policies, specialized apps, certification, and GPU‑heavy workloads are central. The rational enterprise strategy will be hybrid: retain Windows for specialist workloads and evaluate Mac deployment for desktop productivity cohorts after rigorous pilots. ESU is a bridge for mission‑critical devices that cannot migrate within the ESU window.
A practical migration checklist (30‑day sprint for the undecided)
- Run Microsoft PC Health Check on every device to document Windows 11 eligibility (TPM, Secure Boot, CPU support).
- Inventory mission‑critical applications, drivers, and hardware dependencies; flag Windows‑only items.
- Pilot a Mac (or a small Mac mini fleet) with representative users for 2–4 weeks; test virtualization for holdout apps (Parallels, VMware, cloud Windows).
- Model TCO with trade‑in, refurbished options, virtualization licensing, MDM and endpoint protection for macOS, staff retraining costs, and residual value sensitivity.
- If immediate replacement is impossible, enroll in ESU for eligible devices as a time‑boxed risk management step while you plan migration. ESU extends critical security updates for a limited period and should be treated as temporary.
What Microsoft and OEMs should watch next
- Microsoft needs to make upgrading paths and compatibility messaging clearer and less disruptive. The TPM/UEFI baseline served a security purpose but also created a spiky migration surface that some users avoided by switching ecosystems. How Microsoft balances security hardening with upgrade friction will shape the next refresh window.
- OEMs that can deliver large commercial refresh programs (logistics, imaging, enterprise services) will capture the bulk of replacement demand. Lenovo’s Q3 execution reinforced that advantage; Apple’s strength was converting a subset of buyers into platform switchers. Both strategies are defensible, but they serve different buyer types (enterprise vs. freelancer/knowledge worker).
- The longer‑term battle remains about AI‑capability and software ecosystems. Vendors are positioning “AI readiness” as a procurement checkbox. However, until enterprise and consumer applications exploit local NPUs broadly, on‑device AI will be a differentiator mostly in marketing and targeted workloads—buyers should prioritize real workload gains over TOPS headlines.
Verdict: is it time to switch?
For many individual users, freelancers, and small teams whose workflows are cloud‑centric and largely Microsoft 365‑based, yes—switching to a Mac can be a pragmatic, lower‑friction route that reduces short‑term risk from Windows 10 EoS and simplifies lifecycle management. Apple’s Q3 2025 gains are evidence that a non‑trivial cohort made this choice and found the trade‑offs acceptable.For organizations with Windows‑only LOB apps, GPU‑dependent workloads, or custom drivers, the right answer is usually hybrid: preserve Windows where required, pilot macOS for knowledge workers, and use virtualization or cloud Windows for exceptions. ESU buys time but is not a strategic substitute for a migration plan.
Finally, buyers must run the math, test real workloads, and avoid letting a calendar alone drive a panic purchase. The Q3 numbers prove one thing: a hard software lifecycle date forces decisions. The best outcomes will go to organizations and users that convert that urgency into disciplined piloting, verification, and conservative cost modeling—rather than to those who simply follow marketing momentum.
Final takeaways (short)
- Windows 10 reached end‑of‑support on October 14, 2025; Microsoft’s ESU is a short bridge, not a long term answer.
- Q3 2025 saw a clear refresh wave: Counterpoint reports global PC shipments +8.1% and Apple Mac shipments +14.9% YoY; Gartner and IDC preliminary reads corroborate a multi‑tracker rebound.
- TPM 2.0 and other Windows 11 baseline requirements excluded many good Windows 10 machines, creating the hardware replacement moment that benefited multiple vendors—including Apple.
- Switching to macOS is a defensible, pragmatic choice for cloud‑first users; enterprises should adopt measured pilots and hybrid strategies rather than blanket migrations.
Source: TechRadar Apple’s MacBooks are cashing in on Microsoft’s Windows 10 exit
