Microsoft’s decision to end Windows 10 support has done exactly what Microsoft planners expected — it created a hard, calendar-driven refresh window — but the real surprise of Q3 2025 is who cashed the checks: Apple’s MacBooks posted double‑digit growth while Lenovo surged to the top of the PC shipments table, leaving Dell as the lone major laggard in a quarter defined by compliance-driven buying and early positioning for an “AI PC” future.
Microsoft formally ended mainstream support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025, a firm milestone that stopped regular security and feature updates for the platform and turned a decade‑old installed base into an immediate procurement problem for enterprises, schools and many consumers. Microsoft simultaneously offered a time‑boxed consumer ESU (Extended Security Updates) program that provides security patches through October 13, 2026, but with enrollment conditions that push users toward Microsoft accounts or other Microsoft‑centric enrollment choices.
Industry trackers and OEM reports show the impact: global PC shipments rose sharply in Q3 2025 as buyers — particularly institutional and education purchasers — accelerated replacements to avoid running unsupported endpoints. Counterpoint Research estimates global PC shipments rose about 8.1% year‑over‑year in Q3, with Apple’s Mac shipments jumping roughly 14.9% and Lenovo posting the largest vendor gain (around 17%). Gartner’s preliminary snapshot aligns directionally, reporting high single‑digit growth and naming Lenovo as the quarter’s largest unit mover.
In the Q3 market narrative, Windows 10’s end of support created the starting pistol; Lenovo sprinted to the front, Apple capitalized on migration friction to grow its Mac footprint, and the industry collectively nudged toward an AI‑ready future that may reshape procurement after 2026. The immediate lesson for readers and IT decision makers is practical: inventory, triage, and validate — the deadline has passed, but the replacement choices made now will shape help‑desk workloads, security posture and application compatibility for years to come.
Source: Windows Central Windows 10 is dying — and Apple’s Macs are cashing in — but one Windows PC maker remains in the lead
Background / Overview
Microsoft formally ended mainstream support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025, a firm milestone that stopped regular security and feature updates for the platform and turned a decade‑old installed base into an immediate procurement problem for enterprises, schools and many consumers. Microsoft simultaneously offered a time‑boxed consumer ESU (Extended Security Updates) program that provides security patches through October 13, 2026, but with enrollment conditions that push users toward Microsoft accounts or other Microsoft‑centric enrollment choices. Industry trackers and OEM reports show the impact: global PC shipments rose sharply in Q3 2025 as buyers — particularly institutional and education purchasers — accelerated replacements to avoid running unsupported endpoints. Counterpoint Research estimates global PC shipments rose about 8.1% year‑over‑year in Q3, with Apple’s Mac shipments jumping roughly 14.9% and Lenovo posting the largest vendor gain (around 17%). Gartner’s preliminary snapshot aligns directionally, reporting high single‑digit growth and naming Lenovo as the quarter’s largest unit mover.
Why a calendar date changed the market
The key dynamic here is reflexive: when support stops being guaranteed, the risk calculus flips overnight. For many organizations and public agencies, the decision isn’t optional — unsupported operating systems create compliance, audit and security exposure that procurement and security teams will not accept.- Unsupported OS instances increase immediate cyber risk and can trigger contractual or regulatory non‑compliance.
- Windows 11’s hardware baseline (TPM, Secure Boot, modern CPU families) prevents simple in‑place upgrades for a significant share of older PCs, converting a software problem into a hardware‑replacement project.
- Microsoft’s ESU is explicitly framed as a short bridge, not a long‑term continuity plan; enterprises see it as buying time while planning full refreshes.
The numbers: who gained, who didn’t
Market snapshot (what multiple trackers reported)
Multiple independent trackers and industry summaries converged on the same directional story for Q3 2025: shipments recovered into positive territory and the top vendors captured most of the gains.- Counterpoint Research: global PC shipments +8.1% YoY in Q3 2025; Apple Mac shipments +14.9% YoY; Lenovo +17% YoY; ASUS and HP posted double‑digit gains; Dell recorded a slight decline.
- Gartner: worldwide PC shipments ~69 million units in Q3 2025, +8.2% YoY; Lenovo showed the strongest vendor growth (approx. +16.6% YoY).
- IDC (reported by media outlets): a higher headline total (mid‑70 millions), reflecting methodological differences between sell‑in and sell‑through measures.
Vendor winners and why
- Lenovo — Scale, channel reach and a dominant commercial portfolio let Lenovo capture the largest enterprise and education refresh orders. The company’s logistics and tender experience translated into outsized unit gains in Q3.
- Apple — MacBooks benefitted from timely product cycles and increasing enterprise interest in macOS endpoints, producing strong year‑on‑year growth even though Apple remains outside the overall top‑share leader in absolute units. The Mac’s appeal in knowledge‑work and creative segments, plus Apple’s on‑device AI messaging, made the platform an attractive migration target for users without Windows‑only line‑of‑business (LOB) software.
- ASUS & HP — Both saw meaningful YoY growth driven by refreshed consumer and education SKUs and aggressive channel promotions.
- Dell — The outlier, with shipments flat or slightly down in many trackers; timing of enterprise tenders and digestion of earlier front‑loaded shipments appeared to depress Q3 sell‑in for the company.
Why Macs — and why now?
Apple benefits from three practical strengths that make macOS a credible alternative for many Windows 10 holdouts:- Broad productivity parity: Microsoft 365 apps run natively on macOS and cover the daily document, email and collaboration needs of most knowledge workers. That dramatically reduces the app‑gap migration friction for many users.
- Hardware/OS integration and lifecycle narrative: Apple markets longer lifecycle support, trade‑in programs and higher residuals — metrics IT teams weigh into total cost of ownership models. For organizations that value predictable device lifecycles and lower help‑desk overheads, that narrative resonates.
- On‑device AI and perceived privacy advantages: Apple’s M‑series silicon (with neural engines) is positioned for local AI features, a capability that appeals to customers who want on‑device inference and tighter data‑governance. While the immediate Q3 demand was migration‑driven rather than AI‑driven, Apple’s story found receptive ears among buyers thinking about the next hardware cycle.
Lenovo: how one Windows OEM converted the deadline into market leadership
Lenovo’s performance in Q3 was the clearest demonstration of traditional Windows OEM strength in a compliance event.- Scale and breadth: Lenovo has SKUs that map to education price bands, enterprise security and higher‑end commercial laptops — allowing it to capture both low‑cost fleet replacements and premium corporate buys.
- Logistics and local fulfillment: Lenovo’s global manufacturing and distribution reduced exposure to regional trade timing shocks and allowed the company to fulfill large tender packages quickly.
- AI positioning where useful: Lenovo also pushed AI‑capable SKUs in marketing materials, positioning future‑proofed devices that could meet enterprise procurement checklists for on‑device AI support even if those features weren’t central to buyers’ immediate needs.
The AI PC story — real catalyst or marketing narrative?
Analysts and OEMs have started to talk about an “AI PC” category: notebooks and desktops with NPUs (neural processing units) and on‑device acceleration designed to run local inference for Copilot‑style assistants and models.- Counterpoint and Gartner both flagged AI PCs as a likely growth driver after 2026, once next‑generation silicon (Intel Panther Lake, Qualcomm Snapdragon X2 Elite, NVIDIA‑collaborative chips, etc.) and a richer application ecosystem arrive. Q3 2025’s growth, however, was predominantly OS migration, not a pure AI‑feature buying spree.
- Software readiness is the gating factor. Without mainstream apps that leverage NPUs at scale, hardware NPUs remain future‑proofing arguments rather than immediate productivity drivers.
- Pricing and TCO will matter. AI‑capable silicon increases BOM cost; many buyers will accept AI features only if the business case is clear or procurement incentives exist.
- Forecasts remain conditional. Analysts expect a “significant ramp” after 2026, but that hinges on silicon roadmaps, developer tooling and enterprise validation. Flagging this is essential: the AI PC thesis is credible, but not yet the primary motive for most Q3 purchases.
What Windows 10 users and IT leaders should know (practical guidance)
The lifecycle cutoff and quarter‑end shipment dynamics create both urgency and options. Below is a compact, tactical decision matrix and a migration playbook.Decision matrix — quick triage
- You’re a home user with web‑centric workloads: A new Windows 11 laptop or a Mac (if you own iPhone/iPad) are both practical choices. Consider trade‑in offers.
- You run creative apps or prefer Apple workflows (Final Cut, Logic, Metal‑optimized suites): Macs remain an excellent fit. Validate GPU/format workflows if you collaborate with Windows‑native studios.
- Small business: Inventory endpoints for Windows 11 compatibility. If no Windows‑only LOB apps exist, Mac migration may lower help‑desk calls; otherwise plan a Windows 11 refresh.
- Large enterprise / regulated environments: Treat ESU as a bridge only. Plan scheduled refreshes, pilot Windows 11 rollouts and evaluate cloud Windows (Windows 365 / Azure Virtual Desktop) for devices that cannot be upgraded in place.
Migration playbook — five practical steps
- Inventory and classify every Windows 10 endpoint (hardware spec, LOB dependencies, upgradeability). Use automated tools where possible.
- Run Windows PC Health Check and vendor utilities to confirm Windows 11 eligibility; tag non‑upgradeable devices for replacement.
- Prioritize high‑risk systems (sensitive data or regulatory scope) for immediate replacement or ESU enrollment; use ESU only as a temporary stopgap.
- Pilot cross‑platform scenarios if considering Macs: test virtualization (Parallels Desktop, VMware Fusion), validate printing/peripheral drivers and confirm performance for required workloads.
- Use refresh windows to modernize endpoint management (Intune / Jamf / combined MDM strategies) and ensure consistent security baselines on new devices.
Risks, caveats and unverifiable claims
- Forecast risk: projections that AI PCs will drive a sustained market surge after 2026 are plausible, but depend heavily on silicon shipping at scale, compatible software and enterprise readiness. Treat these forecasts as conditional; they are strategic signals, not guaranteed near‑term demand drivers.
- Shipment vs. sell‑through: A portion of Q3 shipment growth reflected front‑loaded inventory and tariff avoidance rather than immediate end‑user activations. Analysts caution that shipment data can overstate short‑term consumption. Distinguish channel shipments from actual device rollouts.
- Migration friction: For many users, the cost of retraining, re‑tooling peripherals, and validating LOB software remains the decisive barrier against switching to macOS. Avoid blanket claims that “everyone will switch”; the reality is nuanced and heterogenous.
The strategic takeaway for Windows enthusiasts and IT buyers
The Windows 10 sunset did what lifecycle deadlines do: it converted diffuse risk into concentrated procurement action. That action benefited traditional Windows OEMs with deep commercial reach (Lenovo foremost), but it also created an opportunistic opening for Apple to convert a meaningful subset of knowledge‑workers and small businesses to Mac hardware. The quarter’s numbers are less a permanent hand‑off of the PC market to Apple than a reminder that a well‑timed product cycle and an adjacent lifecycle event can shift buyer behavior quickly.- Short term: expect continued refresh activity into 2026 as enterprises execute staged rollouts and public tenders finalize deliveries. ESU will dampen some immediate urgency but not eliminate fleet replacement plans.
- Medium term: watch for genuine AI PC adoption signals in 2026 and beyond — meaningful growth depends on software that leverages on‑device NPUs, not only the presence of NPUs themselves.
- For buyers: prioritize verified compatibility (hardware and software), leverage trade‑in and vendor migration assistance where possible, and treat ESU as a controlled, temporary contingency rather than a long‑term research‑and‑development discount.
In the Q3 market narrative, Windows 10’s end of support created the starting pistol; Lenovo sprinted to the front, Apple capitalized on migration friction to grow its Mac footprint, and the industry collectively nudged toward an AI‑ready future that may reshape procurement after 2026. The immediate lesson for readers and IT decision makers is practical: inventory, triage, and validate — the deadline has passed, but the replacement choices made now will shape help‑desk workloads, security posture and application compatibility for years to come.
Source: Windows Central Windows 10 is dying — and Apple’s Macs are cashing in — but one Windows PC maker remains in the lead
