Windows 10 ESU Year 2 Costs $122 Per Device as Windows 11 Leads Desktop Share

Statcounter's worldwide desktop Windows-version figures for September 2026 put Windows 11 at 71.44% and Windows 10 at 27.83%. Techzine reported the numbers as 71.5% and 27.77%, which is close but not identical. Windows 7, it turns out, still has 0.55%. The bigger news for IT departments is the calendar: The Register reports that the first year of the Extended Security Updates (ESU) program is coming to an end, and kind old Microsoft will be hiking the prices for year two, at least as far as commercial customers are concerned.

The two trends deserve to be pulled apart, so here's what the evidence actually shows.

What the market-share numbers do and don't tell you​

Microsoft does not publish official counts of how many devices run each version. Techzine noted the same thing. That leaves analytics firms such as Statcounter, which measure observed web traffic. They don't count installed PCs.

That matters, because different measuring methods give very different answers:

• Statcounter (web traffic): A statistics roundup from CommandLinux notes that Lansweeper found it on 16.9% of scanned Windows clients in July 2026, while StatCounter logged 30.14% of desktop Windows pageviews in August 2026.
• Month-to-month swings: The same roundup lists Statcounter's August 2026 figures as Windows 11 at 68.6% and Windows 10 at 30.14%. Further back, UK IT firm ServNet, citing Statcounter data reported by TweakTown, wrote that by February 2026, StatCounter data put Windows 11 at 72.57% of worldwide Windows desktop version share, with Windows 10 down to 26.45%.

So Windows 11 was at about 72.6% in February, about 68.6% in August and about 71.4% in September. Instead of a smooth climb, that looks like a plateau with a fair amount of noise. It fits Techzine's description: Windows 11 adoption stayed fairly flat over the past year after a big jump in late 2025, when Windows 10 support ended and ESU began.

The useful point for admins is that web-traffic share and fleet share are different things. Managed corporate fleets scanned by Lansweeper appear to have moved off Windows 10 faster than the general browsing public. Home PCs, gaming rigs and unmanaged machines likely make up a large part of what's left on Windows 10. That is my inference from the gap between the two measures, not a finding either company published.

Section summary: Windows 11 leads Windows 10 by a wide margin, but the exact figure depends on who measures and how. Treat any single month's Statcounter number as a rough estimate.

The ESU price schedule: doubling, and you can't skip years​

Microsoft ended support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025. The October 2025 security update was the last regular one for version 22H2 and the LTSB editions that ended alongside it. Since then, ESU has been the official way to keep getting security patches. It covers critical and important security updates only. Microsoft's ESU documentation says it does not include new features, customer-requested non-security fixes, design changes or general technical support.

For organizations, the price rises every year:

Microsoft's own documentation sets Year One at $61 per device through Volume Licensing and says the price doubles each year, for up to three years. The $427 total is simply $61 + $122 + $244. Microsoft doesn't quote that figure itself.

The part that catches people out is that ESU is cumulative. Microsoft's FAQ says the program must be bought by year, partial periods aren't available, and anyone who joins in Year Two also has to pay for Year One. A Microsoft Q&A answer puts it plainly: if you delay purchasing until Year 2, you will be required to pay the retroactive cost for Year 1 as well. Waiting doesn't save money. Managed IT provider UMSOL put it this way: A device that comes into the program in year three costs $427, not $244. There is no late entry at the current year's price.

On timing, several IT consultancies say year two runs from October 14, 2026 through October 12, 2027 at $122 per device. Microsoft's FAQ wording is a little different. It says Year One "starts in November 2025," while ESU activation keys become usable at the end-of-support date. Check your own Volume Licensing agreement or reseller terms for the exact renewal date. Either way, the renewal falls within days of this article.

A source quoted by The Register expects only a modest effect. They predicted a "small bump" around the renewal date and argued that "the remaining devices are mostly ones where paying ESU is cheaper or simpler than replacing whatever they're bolted to." That fits the legacy-hardware situation discussed below.

Section summary: Year Two costs $122 per device, but anyone joining now pays $183. Keeping a machine covered for all three years costs $427 in license fees alone.

Who doesn't pay the commercial price​

The doubling schedule only applies to commercial and education customers. Other groups get very different terms.

Home users. Microsoft's consumer ESU lets individuals enroll by syncing settings with Windows Backup, redeeming 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points, or paying $30. Microsoft updated its Windows Experience Blog on June 25, 2026 to say personal-device coverage now lasts an extra year, through October 12, 2027. ServNet's summary agrees that consumer Windows 10 ESU now runs to October 12, 2027 — a full year later than originally announced.

European Economic Area. Techzine describes EEA consumers as getting ESU with "no conditions at all." That goes slightly too far. Microsoft's EEA guidance says private users can enroll at no extra cost by signing in with a Microsoft account and staying signed in. If that account isn't used to sign in for up to 60 days, updates stop until the user signs back in. The other option is a one-time $30 purchase. You still have to sign in with a Microsoft account to enroll, but you can switch back to a local account afterwards. Microsoft's EEA list also includes Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.

Cloud and virtual machines. Microsoft lists Windows 10 virtual machines in these services as eligible for ESU at no extra cost: Windows 365, Azure Virtual Desktop, Azure VMs, Azure Dedicated Host, Azure VMware Solution, Nutanix Cloud Clusters on Azure, Azure Local, Azure Stack Hub and Azure Stack Edge. Windows 10 PCs that connect to Windows 365 Cloud PCs are also covered for up to three years, as long as there's an active Windows 365 subscription. So "Windows 365 users are exempt" is roughly right, but it depends on that specific setup.

The fine print admins should know​

A few details tend to get lost:

• Only version 22H2 qualifies for regular ESU. Machines on older feature updates need to move to 22H2 first. According to Microsoft's release-health page, the latest 22H2 ESU build is 19045.7727 (the September 2026 out-of-band update, KB5129236).
• LTSB/LTSC editions follow their own lifecycles. This matters a lot for the industrial and kiosk machines Techzine describes as here to stay. Microsoft lists extended support for Windows 10 Enterprise LTSB 2016 ending 2026-10-13 and LTSC 2019 ending 2029-01-09. Enterprise LTSC 2021 has no extended support and stops getting updates on 2027-01-12. Only IoT Enterprise LTSC 2021 is supported until 2032-01-13. Before you buy ESU for a factory-floor PC, check which edition it actually runs.
• Some components outlast the OS. Microsoft says Microsoft 365 Apps on Windows 10 will get security updates until October 10, 2028. Microsoft Defender Antivirus security intelligence updates also continue through October 2028. That helps, but it doesn't replace OS patches.
• Windows 10 keeps working without ESU. Microsoft says unenrolled PCs will keep running. They just won't get quality updates, security fixes or support.

The real decision: renew, upgrade or replace?​

Techzine argues that rising costs make Windows 11 more attractive. That's reasonable, but the license fee is only part of the bill. A practical way to decide:

1. Sort your Windows 10 machines by Windows 11 eligibility. Eligible PCs can upgrade for free. Paying ESU for them is just a postponement fee.
2. Price the remaining two years for ineligible PCs. Consultancy 3rd Element points out that $122 this year plus $244 next year is $366 per device, a meaningful share of the price of a new business-class laptop, spent on a machine you will still have to replace.
3. Isolate the genuine legacy machines. PCs tied to unvalidated industrial software or old hardware may be worth renewing, or may already be on LTSC with longer support. Write down why each one is staying and when it will be retired.
4. Consider cloud options carefully. Windows 365 includes ESU, but subscription costs usually exceed the ESU fee. It only makes sense if you were already planning to move desktops to the cloud.
5. Budget for Year Three now. If you renew this month, the next invoice will be $244 per device.

Microsoft's own advice is to move eligible PCs with Windows Autopatch or Intune. That tells you ESU was meant as a temporary bridge, and the doubling prices make sure nobody gets comfortable on it.

Bottom line​

Windows 10 hasn't disappeared. Statcounter still puts it on more than a quarter of desktop Windows traffic. But the available data doesn't prove that price increases caused its decline. Windows 11's share has mostly levelled off since early 2026, and corporate fleet scans show far fewer Windows 10 machines than web traffic does.

For businesses, this month's change is concrete: Year Two ESU costs $122 per device, or $183 for anyone joining late, and Year Three costs twice that. For home users, especially in the EEA, the pressure is lower until October 2027. Either way, whoever is left on Windows 10 by late 2027 will mostly be a short list of legacy machines with a documented reason to stay.