India’s power sector stands at the cusp of what could be one of the most consequential transitions in its history—a move from coal-dominated generation to a grid where renewable energy takes center stage. The Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW)’s latest study, “How Can India Meet Its Rising Power Demand? Pathways to 2030,” provides not only a data-rich roadmap for this urgent transformation but also sets the bar high for energy analysts and policymakers alike. With power demand surging to record highs, and the ambitious Viksit Bharat vision in clear focus, the findings from this study deserve a thorough exploration—not only of what they project, but of the enabling conditions and risks that may shape India’s journey to a decarbonized energy future.
India’s electricity landscape is evolving at a blistering pace. The country’s power demand reached an all-time high of 238 GW in February 2025 and is expected to touch 260 GW during the forthcoming summer months—levels that already surpass earlier projections from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). These unprecedented peaks are being attributed to both accelerating economic growth and to climate change-induced heat, portending a future where demand volatility could become the new normal.
As per the CEEW study, if India’s electricity demand grows in line with existing CEA projections, the country’s current pipeline—comprising existing, under-construction, and planned generation—would suffice to meet the needs of 2030. However, the stakes rise dramatically if demand continues to outstrip current forecasts. For India, the “high renewable energy pathway”—targeting 600 GW of non-fossil fuel power by 2030—emerges not just as an environmental imperative, but as the most economically viable safeguard for reliability and affordability.
This scale-up is not purely aspirational. Over the last decade, India’s clean energy journey has been remarkable. Non-fossil-fuel capacity has risen from just 76 GW in 2014 to 220 GW in 2025. Yet, the leap to 600 GW within the next five years will demand nothing less than a transformation in how policies are made, how markets are structured, and how technologies are deployed.
Complicating matters is India’s rapid electrification—reaching ever deeper into rural areas, paired with a growing middle class and an expanding base of industrial consumers. Each of these trends reinforces the necessity for not just more capacity, but the right kind of capacity—renewables integrated with storage and flexible resources.
Equally important, renewables are gaining an unassailable edge on cost, outcompeting new fossil generation even without subsidies. As international supply chains scale, tariffs for new solar and wind projects in India regularly set global benchmarks for affordability. It’s against this backdrop that the CEEW analysis concludes: a 600 GW non-fossil portfolio is not simply environmentally prudent but economically logical, both for consumers and for the Indian state.
Yet, as CEEW trustees and experts stress, realizing 600 GW will require more than rhetoric. A “future-ready policy and regulatory framework” is paramount. The government is already deploying bold blueprints—ranging from market-based dispatch and green open-access policies to reforms in project financing and land acquisition. These policy pivots must not only persist, but accelerate and adapt.
The energy transition’s complexity lies in the details: how grid operators balance variable supply from solar and wind, how financially-stressed distribution companies (DISCOMs) are enabled to absorb renewable power, and how states with divergent energy mixes are aligned with national objectives.
Rooftop solar, community hydro, and distributed storage are not only technically feasible but necessary to reach the last mile. State and city governments, being closer to the unique needs of local consumers and the realities of local grids, must become co-architects of the transition.
The study’s innovative modeling of 15-minute dispatch intervals reinforces the necessity: real-time flexibility will be essential, enabled by digitalization, smart metering, and market platforms allowing demand-side participation, including from commercial and industrial users.
The study implicitly calls for innovative blended finance mechanisms, improved risk mitigation tools, and clarity in regulatory regimes to crowd in institutional investors, especially for grid-scale storage and transmission infrastructure that tend to have longer payback periods.
India’s current grid architecture was designed for dispatchable coal power. The future grid must absorb rapid, sometimes unpredictable, ramps in renewable output—necessitating smart grids, digital twins, advanced storage, and system-level reforms.
Hydropower and nuclear, though growing more slowly, will be pivotal as balancing resources. Storage—both battery and pumped hydro—will move from fringe to mainstream, operationalized at all relevant scales.
What must not be overlooked, however, is the necessity for a “just transition.” Workers and communities dependent on coal mining and thermal power must not be left behind. The CEEW report’s focus on distributed solutions, and policy support for reskilling, is critical to ensure that vulnerable populations are included in the benefits of the energy revolution.
First, over-reliance on intermittent renewables without adequate storage or grid infrastructure could threaten reliability, particularly during extreme weather events or systemic shocks.
Second, regulatory lag remains a concern. Even as progressive market reforms are unveiled, incumbent interests and bureaucratic inertia occasionally slow adoption. Rapid, coordinated regulatory adjustments are required to keep pace with evolving technical and economic realities.
Third, land acquisition for large-scale solar and wind farms can become flashpoints for local resistance unless managed transparently and inclusively. The balance between utility-scale and distributed renewables must be tailored to specific geographies.
Finally, affordability must not come at the cost of sustainability. While clean power tariffs are diving, situations where financially distressed DISCOMs are unable to purchase or transmit renewable power highlight the urgent need for integrated solutions.
By pushing the envelope on scale, grid integration, and policy innovation, India is positioned to shape global norms around clean energy transitions. The sophisticated modeling and risk analysis undertaken by CEEW underlines India’s capacity not only to follow but to lead.
Success would not only insulate the economy from the price shocks of fossil fuels and the impacts of climate volatility, but also accelerate the march toward an innovative, resilient, and inclusive energy system. The next five years, therefore, will be decisive—not only for India but for the global clean energy movement. In this audacious gamble, the risks are real, but so too are the rewards—both for a greener grid and a thriving population.
Source: www.lokmattimes.com India needs to scale up to 600 GW of non-fossil-fuel capacity by 2030: CEEW - www.lokmattimes.com
India’s Surging Electricity Demand: Present Reality and the Path to 2030
India’s electricity landscape is evolving at a blistering pace. The country’s power demand reached an all-time high of 238 GW in February 2025 and is expected to touch 260 GW during the forthcoming summer months—levels that already surpass earlier projections from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). These unprecedented peaks are being attributed to both accelerating economic growth and to climate change-induced heat, portending a future where demand volatility could become the new normal.As per the CEEW study, if India’s electricity demand grows in line with existing CEA projections, the country’s current pipeline—comprising existing, under-construction, and planned generation—would suffice to meet the needs of 2030. However, the stakes rise dramatically if demand continues to outstrip current forecasts. For India, the “high renewable energy pathway”—targeting 600 GW of non-fossil fuel power by 2030—emerges not just as an environmental imperative, but as the most economically viable safeguard for reliability and affordability.
The 600 GW Non-Fossil Fuel Target: Components and Implications
The distribution of the envisaged 600 GW paints a compelling picture of India’s clean energy potential: 377 GW from solar, 148 GW from wind, 62 GW from hydro, and 20 GW from nuclear. Such a portfolio—notably, several times the current installed renewable capacity—ushers in a new era where renewables are no longer a peripheral supplement but the backbone of India’s electricity ecosystem.This scale-up is not purely aspirational. Over the last decade, India’s clean energy journey has been remarkable. Non-fossil-fuel capacity has risen from just 76 GW in 2014 to 220 GW in 2025. Yet, the leap to 600 GW within the next five years will demand nothing less than a transformation in how policies are made, how markets are structured, and how technologies are deployed.
Why 600 GW? Viability and Urgency
There’s a critical logic underpinning the 600 GW figure. The CEEW study, unique in its design, models India’s power system dispatch at 15-minute intervals for 2030, capturing a granularity of operational detail that most conventional forecasts miss. This approach unearths the hidden challenge: traditional generation and transmission systems are unlikely to cope efficiently with the dual pressures of steadily rising average demand and sharply spiking peaks, especially when driven by extreme heat.Complicating matters is India’s rapid electrification—reaching ever deeper into rural areas, paired with a growing middle class and an expanding base of industrial consumers. Each of these trends reinforces the necessity for not just more capacity, but the right kind of capacity—renewables integrated with storage and flexible resources.
Equally important, renewables are gaining an unassailable edge on cost, outcompeting new fossil generation even without subsidies. As international supply chains scale, tariffs for new solar and wind projects in India regularly set global benchmarks for affordability. It’s against this backdrop that the CEEW analysis concludes: a 600 GW non-fossil portfolio is not simply environmentally prudent but economically logical, both for consumers and for the Indian state.
Government Vision and Policy Responses
Drawing from the remarks of Minister of State for Power Shripad Yesso Naik and former Union minister Suresh Prabhu at the study launch, India's leadership understands the moment’s gravity. The drive toward net zero by 2070, conceptualized as foundational for a “Viksit Bharat” (developed India), is seen as inseparable from energy sector reform.Yet, as CEEW trustees and experts stress, realizing 600 GW will require more than rhetoric. A “future-ready policy and regulatory framework” is paramount. The government is already deploying bold blueprints—ranging from market-based dispatch and green open-access policies to reforms in project financing and land acquisition. These policy pivots must not only persist, but accelerate and adapt.
The energy transition’s complexity lies in the details: how grid operators balance variable supply from solar and wind, how financially-stressed distribution companies (DISCOMs) are enabled to absorb renewable power, and how states with divergent energy mixes are aligned with national objectives.
Distributed Solutions: Beyond Centralized Mega-Projects
A striking insight from the discourse at the CEEW event—echoed by Prabhu and several private-sector leaders—is that the 600 GW challenge cannot be met solely through mega-projects or central mandates. Decentralized, research-driven solutions must flourish.Rooftop solar, community hydro, and distributed storage are not only technically feasible but necessary to reach the last mile. State and city governments, being closer to the unique needs of local consumers and the realities of local grids, must become co-architects of the transition.
The study’s innovative modeling of 15-minute dispatch intervals reinforces the necessity: real-time flexibility will be essential, enabled by digitalization, smart metering, and market platforms allowing demand-side participation, including from commercial and industrial users.
Financing the Green Shift: The Next Frontier
Scaling to 600 GW brings with it a seismic requirement for capital. India must mobilize not only domestic investment—both public and private—but also tap into global climate finance pools. Current trends are positive but insufficient: while renewable energy project financing in India has matured over the last decade, challenges persist around cost of capital, perceived policy risks, and currency volatility.The study implicitly calls for innovative blended finance mechanisms, improved risk mitigation tools, and clarity in regulatory regimes to crowd in institutional investors, especially for grid-scale storage and transmission infrastructure that tend to have longer payback periods.
Grid Management: Balancing Reliability and Flexibility
Perhaps the thorniest technical issue flagged by the CEEW research is grid management. As the share of variable generation—principally solar and wind—rises, so does the need for robust forecasting, ancillary services, and grid-scale storage.India’s current grid architecture was designed for dispatchable coal power. The future grid must absorb rapid, sometimes unpredictable, ramps in renewable output—necessitating smart grids, digital twins, advanced storage, and system-level reforms.
Hydropower and nuclear, though growing more slowly, will be pivotal as balancing resources. Storage—both battery and pumped hydro—will move from fringe to mainstream, operationalized at all relevant scales.
Socioeconomic Stakes: Job Creation, Industrial Development, and Just Transition
The shift to 600 GW non-fossil capacity has deep implications for Indian society beyond the electrical engineer’s dashboard. Clean energy industries are engines of job creation: solar installation, wind turbine manufacturing, grid modernization, and battery assembly collectively support large swathes of the workforce—potentially eclipsing employment in coal and conventional power sectors.What must not be overlooked, however, is the necessity for a “just transition.” Workers and communities dependent on coal mining and thermal power must not be left behind. The CEEW report’s focus on distributed solutions, and policy support for reskilling, is critical to ensure that vulnerable populations are included in the benefits of the energy revolution.
Hidden Risks and Systemic Challenges
Vast as its opportunities are, India’s green energy transformation is not free of risks.First, over-reliance on intermittent renewables without adequate storage or grid infrastructure could threaten reliability, particularly during extreme weather events or systemic shocks.
Second, regulatory lag remains a concern. Even as progressive market reforms are unveiled, incumbent interests and bureaucratic inertia occasionally slow adoption. Rapid, coordinated regulatory adjustments are required to keep pace with evolving technical and economic realities.
Third, land acquisition for large-scale solar and wind farms can become flashpoints for local resistance unless managed transparently and inclusively. The balance between utility-scale and distributed renewables must be tailored to specific geographies.
Finally, affordability must not come at the cost of sustainability. While clean power tariffs are diving, situations where financially distressed DISCOMs are unable to purchase or transmit renewable power highlight the urgent need for integrated solutions.
The Global Signal: India as a Climate Leader
India’s pursuit of a 600 GW non-fossil portfolio comes against a global backdrop where energy security, affordability, and climate action are seen as increasingly intertwined. The country’s success (or difficulties) will send powerful signals to other emerging economies wrestling with similar tradeoffs.By pushing the envelope on scale, grid integration, and policy innovation, India is positioned to shape global norms around clean energy transitions. The sophisticated modeling and risk analysis undertaken by CEEW underlines India’s capacity not only to follow but to lead.
Outlook: A Decisive Decade for India’s Energy Future
The CEEW study is clear-eyed in its conclusion: if India is to meet its economic ambitions and uphold its climate commitments, scaling up to 600 GW of non-fossil-fuel energy by 2030 is both viable and necessary. But this will require unwavering political resolve, nimble regulatory innovation, deep financial engagement, and above all, a collaborative ethos spanning government, industry, financiers, and citizens.Success would not only insulate the economy from the price shocks of fossil fuels and the impacts of climate volatility, but also accelerate the march toward an innovative, resilient, and inclusive energy system. The next five years, therefore, will be decisive—not only for India but for the global clean energy movement. In this audacious gamble, the risks are real, but so too are the rewards—both for a greener grid and a thriving population.
Source: www.lokmattimes.com India needs to scale up to 600 GW of non-fossil-fuel capacity by 2030: CEEW - www.lokmattimes.com
Last edited:
