Lenovo Leads Q3 2025 PC Market as Windows 10 EOS Spurs AI PC Momentum

Lenovo reinforced its lead in the global PC market in the third quarter of 2025 as shipment volumes rebounded across the industry, with HP and Dell holding steady in the runner-up positions and ASUS posting the fastest quarter‑on‑quarter growth amid a Windows 10 end‑of‑support‑driven refresh cycle and rising chatter about “AI PCs.”

Background / Overview​

The third quarter of 2025 marked a turning point for the PC industry: after several weak years of muted consumer demand, vendors reported solid shipment growth driven largely by a calendar‑forced migration away from Windows 10 ahead of its scheduled end of support on October 14, 2025. Enterprises, schools and budget‑conscious consumers that had deferred replacements faced a hard deadline for security and compliance, prompting accelerated procurement and replacement activity across multiple regions.
At the same time, policy shifts and tariff anxieties earlier in the year caused strategic inventory moves — manufacturers and channel partners advanced deliveries into earlier quarters to avoid potential import levies. Those inventory adjustments amplified quarter‑to‑quarter swings and complicate simple year‑over‑year comparisons.
Analyst trackers reported broadly consistent narratives but differing headline totals and vendor share percentages because of methodology differences (shipments vs. sell‑in windows, regional sampling, and whether Chromebooks or certain commercial channels are included). The broad consensus: global PC shipments rose in Q3, incumbents with broad commercial reach captured the lion’s share of gains, and the market is beginning an industry‑wide pivot toward machines designed for on‑device AI acceleration — even if those AI features are not yet the decisive factor for most buyers.

---

Q3 2025 at a glance: the numbers and what they mean​

• Global PC shipments returned to growth in Q3 2025, with reported year‑over‑year increases in the high single digits across major trackers.
• Lenovo remained the undisputed market leader and posted the largest incremental unit gains among the top vendors.
• HP and Dell held second and third places respectively; Apple and ASUS rounded out the top five.
• The top five vendors together captured roughly three‑quarters of global volume, underscoring persistent consolidation.
• ASUS delivered the strongest sequential acceleration — an unusually large quarter‑on‑quarter jump driven by consumer notebooks and gaming systems.

Key contextual notes for these figures:

• Different research houses publish different absolute shipment totals for Q3 2025 (estimates vary), but they converge on the direction: a refresh cycle powered by the Windows 10 end of life and tactical inventory timing.
• Tracker snapshots are preliminary and subject to revision; vendors’ own financial reports and channel inventories can shift the final picture over subsequent releases.

---

Vendor performance: who won and why​

Lenovo: scale and channel reach turned into market share gains​

Lenovo translated scale and a broad commercial portfolio into double‑digit year‑over‑year unit growth. The vendor’s strength in enterprise fleets, notebooks for education, and retail channels allowed it to capture much of the Windows‑10 induced replacement demand. Lenovo’s global logistics and diversified manufacturing footprint also reduced exposure to single‑country tariff shocks, enabling more reliable fulfilment during the quarter.

HP: second place, commercial strength​

HP’s volume gains were anchored in the commercial and education segments, where lifecycle refresh programs are easiest to upsell. Strong enterprise partnerships and services allowed HP to monetize migrations beyond hardware, capturing buyers who demanded managed deployments and migration assistance as part of procurement.

Dell: resilience amid mixed enterprise timing​

Dell’s performance was steady but less spectacular than some rivals. Enterprise procurement continues to be Dell’s core strength; however, timing differences in public‑sector tenders and large corporate projects produced a mixed QoQ and YoY profile. In certain trackers Dell showed only modest YoY improvement while recording small sequential gains, suggesting a cautious corporate upgrade posture in some markets.

Apple: MacBook momentum continues​

Apple’s notebook lineup remained attractive to both consumers and enterprise buyers. New MacBook models and steady Mac adoption in corporate environments produced double‑digit YoY improvement in several tracker snapshots, reinforcing Apple’s position in the high‑value, premium segment of the market.

ASUS: fastest quarter‑on‑quarter growth​

ASUS recorded the most pronounced QoQ acceleration, driven by consumer notebooks and a robust gaming laptop portfolio. Strong seasonal consumer demand, refreshed product cycles and targeted promotions helped ASUS outperform on a sequential basis while also posting solid YoY gains.

---

Market dynamics: consolidation and the declining tail​

The third quarter results reaffirmed a structural reality: the PC market continues to concentrate at the top. The top five OEMs now command the majority of volume, leaving smaller vendors to compete on price niches or regional strengths. This consolidation creates advantages for large OEMs — scale procurement of components, powerful channel relationships, managed services, and public tender experience — all of which proved decisive during a fast, calendar‑driven refresh.
At the same time, the long tail of smaller OEMs and regional assemblers faces clear challenges:

• Flat or shrinking orders as institutional buyers standardize on preferred large vendors.
• Downward margin pressure in price‑sensitive consumer segments.
• Difficulty matching logistics and warranties offered by incumbents.

The implication is straightforward: scale matters more than ever in procurement cycles that favor predictable fulfilment, enterprise tooling and ongoing device lifecycle services.

---

Regional patterns: Asia‑Pacific leads, North America lags in Q3​

Regional variation was a major theme in Q3:

• Asia‑Pacific — particularly markets with active public education programs or concentrated enterprise upgrades — delivered some of the strongest growth. Large, centralized tenders and government‑funded refresh programs created predictable high‑volume windows.
• Japan and certain APAC markets saw outsized refresh activity because of synchronous procurement calendars.
• Europe showed moderate gains, driven by enterprise projects and replacement of aging fleets.
• North America lagged relative to other regions in Q3 because some demand had been pulled into earlier quarters as a result of tariff timing and pre‑import acceleration. This led to a smaller QoQ uplift in the U.S. for the reporting quarter even while remaining structurally important.

These regional dynamics emphasize how logistics, government tenders and local procurement calendars interact with global product cycles to produce materially different outcomes across geographies.

---

The AI PC pivot: marketing headline vs. buying reality​

The phrase AI PC has become the industry shorthand for a new class of laptops and desktops that include on‑device AI acceleration — typically a dedicated NPU (neural processing unit) or similar hardware block — plus firmware and software stacks designed to run generative AI assistants or constrained large language model (LLM) workloads locally.
Manufacturers positioned 2025 models as “AI ready,” marketing the ability to:

• Run local generative assistants for document drafting, summarization and basic code generation.
• Execute on‑device models for privacy‑sensitive tasks (voice recognition, personal productivity assistants).
• Offload latency‑sensitive AI inference to local accelerators to reduce cloud dependence.

That said, actual buying drivers in Q3 tell a different story:

• Most corporate and consumer buyers still prioritise OS compatibility, raw CPU/GPU performance, battery life, and price over on‑device AI capabilities.
• AI features were frequently evaluated as a future‑proofing checkbox rather than an immediate procurement requirement.
• For enterprise purchasers, manageability, security and the cost of migration from Windows 10 to Windows 11 remain the dominant procurement considerations.

Industry analysts observed that while AI PC hardware is rapidly proliferating, the software ecosystem and practical enterprise use cases are still catching up. In short, AI PCs are visible in product roadmaps and marketing materials, but they have not yet been the primary sales driver for the quarter under review.

---

Component and design trade‑offs for AI PCs​

Adding dedicated NPUs and AI silicon to thin, light laptops introduces engineering trade‑offs:

• Power budget: NPUs can increase peak power draw; unless paired with power‑efficient designs, battery life may suffer.
• Thermal constraints: Integrating accelerators in ultra‑thin chassis requires careful thermal engineering to avoid thermal throttling.
• Software stack: On‑device AI value depends as much on software integration (OS hooks, model delivery, security sandboxes) as on raw silicon.
• Cost: NPUs and associated IP add to bill‑of‑materials, and near‑term unit economics may favor higher‑price segments.

Consumers and IT managers should demand measured benchmarks for AI tasks rather than vendor marketing claims: the end‑user experience (responsiveness, battery impact, model latency, and privacy controls) will determine whether AI features justify premium pricing.

---

Tariffs and inventory timing: accounting for the noise​

U.S. tariff policy and expectations shaped the first half of 2025 and fed into Q3 results:

• Anticipated or announced import levies caused manufacturers and resellers to accelerate shipments into earlier months to avoid higher duty rates.
• That strategic shift created a wave of off‑cycle shipments which inflated early‑year totals and produced a channel digestion phase later on.
• Q3 therefore shows a mix of genuine replacement demand (Windows 10 EOS) and tactical inventory movements.

The net effect: some part of Q3’s growth is durable (enterprises replacing unsupported systems) and some part is cyclical (inventory timing), raising the risk of a subsequent slowdown as channels digest stock and purchase cadence normalizes.

---

Security, compliance and the Windows 10 deadline​

The fixed calendar date for Windows 10 support cessation created a predictable planning horizon for IT decision‑makers. After October 14, 2025:

• Regular security updates for Windows 10 will cease for most editions.
• Organizations must choose among upgrading eligible devices to Windows 11, enrolling devices in Extended Security Updates (ESU) where available, or replacing unsupported devices.
• Microsoft’s ESU options offer a time‑limited bridge, but ESU is a stopgap that may come with conditions (licensing, account requirements), so many organizations used Q3 to complete migrations rather than defer.

This compliance imperative was a potent motivator for enterprise procurement: replacing ageing fleets is less about seeking new features and more about reducing security risk and ensuring ongoing platform support for productivity and line‑of‑business applications.

---

Risks and downside scenarios​

Several risks could temper the apparent momentum from Q3:

• Inventory digestion: accelerated early shipments and peak quarter promotions create a risk of muted follow‑on quarters as channels and distributors sell through stock rather than place fresh orders.
• Macroeconomic pressures: consumer softness and a tighter enterprise budget environment could reduce the tail of discretionary notebook purchases.
• Tariff volatility: any new tariff announcements or rapid reconfigurations of supply chains can produce order timing shocks that either lift or depress future quarters.
• Fragmentation of AI capabilities: without standardized software stacks and developer support, AI hardware differentiators may be difficult to monetize broadly.
• Security concerns for on‑device AI: local generative models raise new questions about data leakage, model governance and firmware attack surfaces — issues enterprises will scrutinize carefully.
• Hardware compatibility and Windows 11 constraints: a significant installed base of Windows 10 devices will remain ineligible for Windows 11 due to TPM or CPU requirements, forcing either hardware replacement or continued reliance on ESU.

Any of these factors could produce softness after the immediate migration rush dissipates.

---

Opportunities and strategic moves for OEMs and channel partners​

The window opened by the Windows 10 migration and the early AI PC positioning presents several commercial opportunities:

• Services and migration offerings: OEMs and channel partners that pair hardware sales with migration assistance, app compatibility testing and managed update services can capture outsized margin.
• Enterprise AI enablement: vendors that deliver a compelling combination of hardware acceleration, secure model management and enterprise‑grade orchestration will have an advantage as organizations pilot on‑device AI.
• Trade‑in and refurbishment programs: with many consumers and small businesses needing replacements, robust trade‑in and refurbishment channels can lower acquisition costs and support sustainability goals.
• Education and public sector focus: synchronized tender cycles in education remain a reliable source of volume. Vendors that tailor product lines for classroom durability, manageability and budget-channel pricing can win predictable contracts.
• Differentiation in battery and thermals: improving battery life while delivering AI acceleration will be a technical differentiator in thin‑and‑light categories.

OEMs that pivot beyond raw hardware and into lifecycle services, software ecosystems and AI tooling will be best positioned for sustained profit growth.

---

Practical guidance for IT managers and buyers​

• Prioritize compatibility and manageability: choose devices that clearly support Windows 11 and your management stack; confirm driver availability and firmware update mechanisms.
• Treat AI features as additive, not essential: evaluate on‑device AI by testing real workloads relevant to workflows (e.g., transcription, summarization, internal assistants) rather than relying on marketing benchmarks.
• Validate battery and thermal performance: long battery life remains a top user requirement; insist on vendor‑provided mobile‑workload battery tests.
• Consider ESU where a full hardware refresh is impractical: ESU provides a bridge but plan for a definitive migration within the ESU term.
• Use trade‑in and sustainable disposal: pursue vendor or retailer trade‑in options to capture residual value and simplify end‑of‑life compliance.
• Beware of channel timing: avoid buying into temporarily discounted stock unless long‑term support and firmware update commitments are explicit.

These steps will reduce migration risk, optimize total cost of ownership and preserve user productivity during the transition.

---

What to watch next: signals that will shape the market in Q4 and beyond​

• Inventory flow indicators: channel sell‑through rates and distributor inventory levels will indicate whether Q3 activity was front‑loaded or sustained.
• Vendor financial disclosures: official shipment and revenue numbers for Q3 and subsequent quarterly guidance will clarify how much of the growth was durable.
• AI PC software announcements: meaningful developer tooling, model marketplaces or enterprise orchestration frameworks will turn AI PC hardware from a checkbox into genuine value.
• New silicon generations: CPU and NPU launches that materially improve performance per watt can accelerate adoption in mainstream segments.
• Tariff and trade policy changes: any new policies will again alter shipment timing and production footprint decisions.

These data points will define whether the Q3 recovery represents a short‑term bounce or the start of a multi‑year, AI‑driven market expansion.

---

Conclusion​

Q3 2025 reintroduced growth to an industry that had been operating under prolonged consumer caution. The immediate drivers were pragmatic and calendar‑bound: Windows 10’s impending end of support and tactical inventory shifts around trade policy. Lenovo, HP and Dell benefited from established commercial channels and fulfillment capabilities, while ASUS’s sequential acceleration underscored a still‑vibrant consumer and gaming laptop market.
Looking forward, the narrative is shifting from forced refreshes to strategic modernization — led by the gradual, but increasingly visible, emergence of AI PCs. Hardware vendors are racing to place NPUs and AI focal points into mainstream designs, but practical adoption will hinge on software maturity, battery and thermal engineering, and clear enterprise use cases that justify incremental cost.
For buyers and IT planners, the sensible course is to treat Q3 as a moment to align lifecycle plans with security and manageability requirements, to evaluate AI features pragmatically, and to demand vendor commitments for long‑term support. The larger industry question is whether AI PCs will transition from marketing headline to mass purchase driver. That evolution is underway, but as of Q3 it remains a strategic trend rather than the dominant reason organizations and consumers reached for wallets.

---

Source: The New Indian Express Lenovo leads global PC shipments in third quarter; HP, Dell follow