Windows 10 End of Support Spurs AI PC and Copilot+ SMB Upgrades

The approaching end of support for Windows 10 has turned routine hardware refresh conversations into a time‑boxed migration problem—and many small and medium businesses are answering that problem by buying into a new category of Windows 11 machines marketed as AI PCs or Copilot+ PCs that promise hardware‑accelerated on‑device AI, stronger hardware‑rooted security, and modern manageability for the hybrid workplace. Microsoft’s deadline — October 14, 2025 — is the fixed event driving this demand, and vendors, analysts and channel partners are positioning AI‑ready Windows 11 PCs as the practical, future‑proof choice for SMB fleets.

Background / Overview​

Microsoft’s official lifecycle announcement sets a firm calendar date: Windows 10 support ends on October 14, 2025. After that day Microsoft will stop shipping routine security and quality updates and will no longer provide general technical assistance for mainstream Windows 10 editions. For organisations that cannot migrate immediately, Microsoft has offered an Extended Security Updates (ESU) option — a time‑limited, paid bridge — while continuing to urge migration to Windows 11 where devices are eligible.
Two concurrent market forces make this calendar event unusual. First, a significant tranche of business PCs is now older than five years and faces compatibility or reliability issues. Second, the industry has introduced a new class of PCs with dedicated neural accelerators—NPUs—designed to accelerate local AI workloads and unlock Microsoft’s Copilot+ experiences. The combination of a hard OS deadline and a new hardware‑capability threshold has amplified procurement conversations: replace the aging hardware now with AI‑ready Windows 11 devices, or pay for ESU and accept mounting operational risk.

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What SMBs are Buying: AI PCs, Copilot+ and Intel vPro​

What “AI PC” and “Copilot+” mean in practice​

“AI PC” is a vendor classification for a machine with an on‑device neural processing unit (NPU) capable of accelerating inference workloads. Microsoft’s Copilot+ specification for Windows 11 features requires an NPU with the ability to perform 40+ TOPS (trillions of operations per second) for the full set of local AI features—things like Recall (secure snapshot history), Click to Do, Windows Studio Effects, Live Captions with translation, and improved on‑device image generation. Those Copilot+ features are hardware gated: the presence and performance of the NPU determine whether the full Copilot+ experience is available on a device.

Intel vPro and Intel Core Ultra: the commercial story​

For SMBs that prioritise manageability and firmware‑level security, Intel’s vPro platform paired with Intel Core Ultra series processors has featured prominently in vendor messaging. Intel presents Core Ultra processors as integrated platforms combining CPU, GPU, and in qualifying SKUs, an NPU—claiming large improvements in efficiency, performance per watt, and support for dozens of AI‑accelerated features across the Windows platform. Intel also positions vPro as the business‑grade service layer for remote provisioning, fleet telemetry and hardware‑rooted security controls. These claims are central to the “buy new, reduce incident cost” pitch that solution providers are bringing to SMBs.

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The Economics: Upgrade, ESU, or Delay?​

The ESU arithmetic​

Microsoft’s Extended Security Updates exist to buy time, not to be a long‑term substitute for migration. For commercial volume licensing, Microsoft set a Year‑One list price of $61 per device, with the price doubling in subsequent years if organisations renew. Consumer ESU terms differ: Microsoft has made consumer ESU available for a one‑year window (Oct 15, 2025–Oct 13, 2026) with lower or conditional pricing (consumer offers have included a $30 option or free enrollment tied to syncing a Microsoft account). The ESU pricing structure is intentionally punitive relative to buying new hardware to encourage migration. SMBs must therefore model the ESU cost against device replacement, cloud migration (for example, Windows 365 Cloud PCs), or targeted upgrades for critical endpoints.
Practical implication: an organisation with 100 seats that cannot migrate immediately faces a choice between spending roughly $6,100 for Year‑One ESU coverage (more in Year Two if needed) or investing in a targeted hardware refresh for the most critical users. Discounts and special offers (cloud‑based activation, Intune/Autopatch integration, or volume licensing discounts) can change the math; but the general point stands—ESU buys breathing room, not a strategic solution.

Price premium for AI PCs and targeted deployment​

AI‑capable, Copilot+ machines routinely carry a premium versus basic Windows 11 hardware. Analysts have documented a “premiumisation” effect: vendors can push higher ASPs (average selling prices) on AI‑capable lines while still selling non‑NPU Windows 11 devices to the broader user base. For SMBs this creates a sensible segmentation strategy: buy AI‑capable devices for roles that will materially benefit (creatives, product teams, analysts, managers who rely on summarization and meeting features), and choose standard Windows 11 Pro devices or extended cloud solutions for general knowledge workers. Vendor performance claims (percentage gains in productivity) are useful to build a business case but must be validated in‑house with pilots.

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Market Signals: Analysts, OEMs and the Shipping Curve​

Multiple independent analysts project rapid adoption of AI‑capable PCs. Gartner and Canalys forecasts show AI PCs moving from niche to a material share of shipments in 2024–2026, with projections that AI PCs could represent roughly 30–40% of PC shipments by the end of 2025 depending on the report and timing. Those forecasts support vendor claims that the Windows 10 end‑of‑support deadline provides a strong tailwind for refresh cycles in 2025. However, macro conditions—tariffs, corporate budget pauses, and supply chain dynamics—still influence actual purchase timing.
OEMs have aligned marketing and product portfolios around this thesis: new Copilot+ SKUs from major vendors (plus Intel’s Core Ultra vPro portfolios) are now a standard part of commercial refresh conversations. This alignment is not purely marketing; it reflects shipping programs, supply investments and partner enablement intended to capture the corporate refresh wave. SMBs should treat vendor claims as truthful for availability and roadmap, but they should validate performance and manageability claims against real workloads.

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Technical Reality Check: What NPUs and TOPS Actually Mean​

NPUs and TOPS are helpful benchmarks but they are not the whole performance story. A device’s effective AI capability depends on:

• The NPU TOPS rating (raw theoretical throughput) and how the silicon vendors measure it.
• The software stack and driver maturity (ONNX Runtime, OpenVINO, vendor runtimes).
• Power and thermals that determine whether a device can sustain inference workloads.
• Integration with Windows features and Copilot services that actually use on‑device inference.

Intel’s Core Ultra marketing touts platform TOPS figures that combine CPU, GPU and NPU throughput, and reports up to 120 TOPS on some configurations—however, TOPS alone don’t predict user‑visible gains for every workflow. Benchmarks targeted at the workloads you care about (e.g., meeting transcripts, summarization, image enhancement) matter more than headline TOPS numbers. Treat vendor TOPS figures as useful but incomplete indicators. Validate with pilots and real sample workloads before committing to a fleet‑wide standard.

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Security and Compliance: Why the Deadline Is More Than Cosmetic​

Stopping security updates is not merely inconvenient; it changes the attack surface and contractual posture of every device. Unsupported OSes are attractive targets for threat actors because disclosed vulnerabilities remain unpatched and unmitigated. For SMBs in regulated sectors (healthcare, finance, legal) unsupported endpoints can raise audit failures and insurance issues. Modern Windows 11 platforms bring hardware features—TPM 2.0, Secure Boot, virtualization‑based security (VBS), and firmware‑backed attestations—that materially lower certain classes of risk, and vPro adds manageability features that shrink remediation time for remote fleets. The security argument therefore has both operational and compliance weight for SMB procurement.
That said, security is not automatic: NPUs and on‑device models must be governed just like any runtime and data lifecycle. SMBs must include model lifecycle, telemetry, and patching of AI components in their security plans. Treat on‑device AI as additional attack surface that needs identity, update and lifecycle controls.

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Practical Migration Playbook for SMBs​

Short, actionable steps SMB IT leaders can use to convert the vendor narrative into a low‑risk program.

• Inventory and triage
• Identify devices by age, warranty, Windows 11 eligibility (use PC Health Check), and criticality.
• Classify endpoints: Upgradeable to Windows 11 in place, non‑upgradeable but replaceable, or legacy special‑purpose machines.
• Pilot the AI story
• Run a focused 10–25 user pilot that maps to real job functions (e.g., marketing creatives, managers with heavy meeting loads).
• Measure time saved, ticket volume, battery life, app compatibility, and whether Copilot+ features actually improve outcomes.
• Model the ESU vs replacement cost
• Price out ESU for critical legacy devices where migration is infeasible in the short term.
• Run TCO scenarios that include device replacement, deployment services, training and disposal/recycling.
• Use modern provisioning and management
• Adopt Autopilot, Microsoft Intune and/or Windows Autopatch to minimize deployment overhead and to capture cloud activation discounts for ESU where applicable.
• Use remote management features like Intel vPro where hardware supports it to reduce on‑site support costs.
• Segment device buys
• Purchase AI‑capable Copilot+ devices for users who will gain real productivity uplift.
• Buy standard Windows 11 Pro laptops for the broader knowledge worker population.
• Consider refurbished or cloud‑hosted solutions (Windows 365 Cloud PCs) for transient or highly price‑sensitive roles.
• Governance and education
• Create data‑handling rules for public AI services versus on‑device Copilot workflows.
• Train staff on secure use of AI, and document which workflows may send data off‑premises.

These steps are intentionally short and repeatable: pilot, validate, finance, scale. Vendors’ ROI numbers help build justification but real ROI will vary by role and app.

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Strengths of the Current Market Narrative​

• Clear calendar discipline: The October 14, 2025 deadline makes planning a project with a finish line, which reduces procrastination and the risk of last‑minute emergency upgrades.
• Vendor alignment: OEMs, Intel, AMD and Microsoft have coordinated product and messaging roadmaps, making it easier for solution providers to offer bundled migration services and trade‑in programs.
• Meaningful capabilities: For some roles, on‑device AI and hardware security features provide tangible productivity and security gains that justify the premium. Validated pilots commonly show measurable time savings.

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Risks, Caveats and Over‑Claims​

• Vendor percentages need scrutiny. Public claims of “40–50% faster” or “250% better performance” are often derived from vendor‑selected benchmarks and specific configurations. These can be directionally useful but should not be accepted as universal truths without pilot validation. Treat headline numbers as marketing, not guarantees.
• Compatibility edge cases. Legacy LOB apps and certain peripherals (medical devices, custom instrumentation) may not be compatible with Windows 11 or Arm‑based Copilot+ SKUs. Test those use cases early and plan remediation for specialized endpoints.
• Environmental and cost concerns. A synchronous refresh across many SMBs carries e‑waste implications and budget pressure. Use trade‑in, refurbishment, or targeted ESU for genuinely constrained endpoints to reduce waste and cost spikes.
• Vendor lock‑in and governance issues with AI. On‑device AI still interacts with cloud services and model stores; SMBs need explicit governance for what is processed locally versus what leaves the corporate boundary. Without policies, organisations add risk.

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Final Assessment and Recommendation​

The Windows 10 end‑of‑support event is a non‑negotiable calendar milestone that upgrades the migration decision from “nice to have” to “risk and compliance imperative” for many SMBs. The industry’s simultaneous push of Copilot+ and AI‑capable PCs gives SMBs a workable pathway to modernise while gaining new productivity and security features—provided the purchase is targeted, validated and managed.
Short, pragmatic guidance:

• Treat the October 14, 2025 date as a project deadline and prioritise devices that are both critical and non‑upgradeable.
• Use ESU only as a tactical bridge and budget conservatively for Year‑One ESU pricing versus replacement.
• Pilot Copilot+ devices with real users to validate vendor productivity claims before a large‑scale roll‑out.
• Use modern provisioning and remote management tools to minimise break/fix overhead and to capture licensing or cloud‑linked discounts.

Taken together, the most sensible SMB strategy is not “buy everything AI now” nor “delay everything with ESU.” It is a staged, evidence‑driven upgrade program that segments users by need, validates the promised benefits of AI PCs, and uses ESU where short delays are unavoidable. That approach keeps risk manageable, contains cost, and positions the organisation to adopt genuinely useful AI features where they deliver measurable operational value.
Conclusion: SMBs will rightly see the Windows 10 end‑of‑support milestone as both a constraint and an opportunity. The smart path is to act deliberately—prioritise high‑impact users for AI‑capable Copilot+ PCs, use ESU sparingly as a bridge, and validate vendor claims with short pilots that measure real productivity and security outcomes before scaling.

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Source: Financial Times Error

 

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The approaching end of support for Windows 10 has become a hard deadline for many small and medium businesses, and the result is an accelerating migration to Windows 11 AI PCs—marketed as Copilot+ or NPU‑equipped devices—that promise modern manageability, hardware‑rooted security, and on‑device AI experiences as part of the replacement justification.

Background / Overview​

Microsoft set a firm calendar date: Windows 10 mainstream support ends on October 14, 2025. After that date Microsoft will no longer provide routine security updates, feature updates, or general technical assistance for supported Windows 10 editions; organizations are advised to upgrade to Windows 11, enroll eligible devices in Extended Security Updates (ESU), or replace non‑upgradeable hardware.
That lifecycle milestone is colliding with the first broad commercial wave of machines that include dedicated neural processing units (NPUs). Microsoft’s Copilot+ PC program defines a hardware bar—an on‑device NPU capable of 40+ TOPS—as the baseline for unlocking a set of Windows AI experiences (Recall, Click to Do, Windows Studio Effects, Live Captions with translation, Cocreator, and more). This combination—an immovable OS lifecycle date and a new hardware capability threshold—has reframed routine refresh conversations into time‑boxed modernization projects.
Industry analysts and vendors see the two forces (EOL + AI hardware) as mutually reinforcing. Canalys and Gartner published forecasts predicting a dramatic ramp in AI‑capable PC shipments through 2025, and OEMs have aligned product and channel messaging to present Copilot+ and Intel/AMD/Qualcomm AI‑PC lines as the practical path forward for businesses that want both security and new productivity features.

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What SMBs are Buying — the Practical Product Tiers​

Copilot+ PCs: the high‑value, NPU‑enabled tier​

Copilot+ PCs are laptops that pair Windows 11 with a turbo‑charged NPU (40+ TOPS) alongside CPU and GPU. Microsoft positions these devices as the ones that can reliably deliver the full slate of on‑device AI experiences without heavy cloud dependence. For SMBs, that translates into two practical claims:

• Faster, contextual productivity features (summaries, meeting captures, Click to Do actions).
• Improved privacy and latency for AI workloads because inference can occur locally on the device’s NPU.

Intel vPro + Core Ultra: the manageability and security story​

For businesses that prioritise fleet manageability, remote provisioning, and firmware‑rooted controls, Intel’s vPro platform—now extended to the Core Ultra family—remains the commercial backbone. Core Ultra processors incorporate an NPU, integrated Arc graphics (in qualifying SKUs), and platform services designed to reduce break‑fix costs with stronger device telemetry, hardware‑assisted security (Intel Threat Detection Technology, Silicon Security Engine), and cloud‑aware device discovery. Intel’s messaging positions vPro + Core Ultra as the enterprise‑grade choice for SMBs that need broad app compatibility and remote management tools.

Standard Windows 11 devices and edge options​

Not every employee needs an NPU. The realistic SMB posture is segmentation: buy Copilot+ AI‑capable devices for roles that will materially benefit (creatives, analysts, managers who rely on summarization and meeting features), purchase standard Windows 11 Pro machines (without a premium NPU) for knowledge workers, and consider refurbished or cloud‑hosted (Windows 365 Cloud PC) alternatives for highly price‑sensitive or transient roles.

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The Technical Bottom Line: What “40+ TOPS NPU” Actually Means​

Many of Microsoft’s Copilot+ experiences are hardware‑gated—they are tested and delivered with the expectation of an NPU delivering at least 40 trillion operations per second (TOPS). That metric is intended to ensure consistent on‑device inference for features such as Recall (secure snapshot history), Cocreator (image generation), Live Captions with translation, and Windows Studio Effects. Microsoft documentation and the Copilot+ marketing explicitly call out the 40+ TOPS requirement.
Practically speaking:

• TOPS is a synthetic throughput metric and does not map one‑for‑one to user‑visible performance; model optimizations, driver stacks and runtime support matter as much as the raw TOPS number.
• Different silicon vendors implement NPUs differently (Qualcomm’s Hexagon, AMD’s and Intel’s NPU designs), so feature availability and performance can vary between models even if they meet the 40+ TOPS threshold.

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Economics: Upgrade, ESU, or Delay?​

The ESU arithmetic (short‑term bridge)​

Microsoft’s Extended Security Updates (ESU) program is explicitly designed as a temporary bridge, not a perpetual substitute for migration. Commercial ESU pricing for organizations is published: approximately $61 USD per device for Year One, with the list price doubling each subsequent year if renewed (up to three years total). For certain cloud‑hosted VM scenarios (Windows 365, Azure Virtual Desktop), ESU protections are included.
This arithmetic makes for a blunt decision framework:

• For a 100‑seat SMB, Year‑One ESU costs roughly $6,100 (list) — a breathing space but not a strategic long‑term answer.
• Compare ESU’s temporary cost and operational limits to targeted refreshes for critical roles, or to hybrid approaches using Cloud PCs for legacy apps while modernizing endpoints that drive productivity.

Price premium and segmentation​

Analysts report a premiumisation effect for AI‑capable PCs—Canalys estimated AI‑capable devices may command a 10–15% price premium in the short term. That premium means SMBs should target AI PC purchases to specific roles instead of buying NPUs for everyone. Rigorous pilots and role‑based TCO calculations uncover the real ROI.

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Migration Playbook for SMB IT Leaders​

The most successful SMB programs follow a short, staged modernization plan: pilot, validate, finance, and scale.

• Inventory and eligibility
• Record make/model, CPU, RAM, storage, TPM/UEFI status and whether devices are domain‑joined.
• Run the Windows PC Health Check to flag devices eligible for in‑place Windows 11 upgrades.
• Prioritise critical endpoints
• Put finance, client‑facing, and internet‑facing devices at the front of the queue.
• Run a focused pilot (10–25 users)
• Validate the actual Copilot+ features you care about on the exact SKU you will buy.
• Measure time saved, ticket volume, app compatibility issues, and battery endurance.
• Decide ESU vs targeted replacement
• Buy ESU only for devices that block immediate migration; treat ESU as tactical breathing room.
• Use a mix of replacements, Cloud PC sessions for legacy apps, and targeted ESU purchases.
• Automate provisioning and management
• Adopt Windows Autopilot + Microsoft Intune and, where available, Windows Autopatch to streamline build and update operations.
• Leverage Intel vPro remote management features when hardware supports it to reduce on‑site interventions.
• Governance and model lifecycle
• Treat NPUs and on‑device models as part of the patch surface: plan driver, runtime, and model updates as you would for any other managed runtime.

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Security, Governance and Operational Risks​

NPUs, model stores and the new patch surface​

On‑device AI introduces a new operational vector. NPUs run models and runtimes that require firmware, driver and model updates. Security teams must incorporate those layers into existing patch and configuration management processes. Intel and Microsoft explicitly point to NPU‑assisted security tooling (AI‑assisted anomaly detection, TDT) as a plus—but that same capability increases the attack surface if model stores or NPUs are unmanaged.

Feature fragmentation and region gating​

Copilot+ features are rolled out in waves and are device, SKU and region dependent. Not every Copilot+ capability appears on every Copilot+ laptop at the same time. SMBs should validate feature parity on the precise SKU and region they plan to buy, because availability and rollout timing matter to user outcomes.

App compatibility and ARM friction​

ARM‑based Copilot+ devices (early Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite systems) delivered excellent battery life and NPU throughput, but legacy x86 LOB applications can encounter compatibility issues on ARM builds. Intel/AMD Copilot+ designs alleviate that friction, but verification is essential: test critical business apps on each planned SKU.

Environmental, cost and e‑waste concerns​

A synchronous refresh across many SMBs creates environmental questions and budget pressure. Trades, refurbishing, trade‑in programs and targeted ESU for genuinely constrained devices are practical mitigations. Microsoft and OEM recycling/trade‑in offers can offset cost and reduce e‑waste when refresh programs are scaled responsibly.

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Independent Market Signals: Are SMBs Actually Buying AI PCs?​

Multiple independent analyst houses and market trackers indicate a rapid adoption curve. Canalys projected AI‑capable PCs to make up a large share of shipments in 2025 (40% in its projection), and Gartner has issued similar forecasts that see AI PCs representing a substantial portion of the market by the end of 2025. Those forecasts help explain OEM and channel readiness: vendors have moved to offer Copilot+ or Intel Core Ultra family machines across broad commercial portfolios. These independent forecasts corroborate the industry narrative that Windows 10 EOL is a real tailwind for PC refresh cycles.

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Vendor Claims vs. What SMBs Should Demand​

Vendors headline large percentage improvements: “up to 40–50% faster workflows” or “58% faster” in targeted benchmarks. These numbers are often derived from lab conditions and selected workloads; they are directionally useful but not universal guarantees. Independent third‑party reviews confirm meaningful gains on modern hardware for many productivity tasks, but real‑world uplift varies by workload, role and app optimization. SMBs should require:

• Role‑based pilots tied to measured KPIs (time saved, ticket volume, energy/battery, app compatibility).
• SKU‑level validation of Copilot+ features and NPU TOPS claims on the exact model they intend to buy.
• A clear plan for driver/runtimes and model updates for on‑device AI.

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A Realistic, Conservative SMB Migration Plan (Quick Checklist)​

• Inventory and classify endpoints by upgradeability and risk.
• Run a 10–25 person pilot that mirrors real job activities and emphasizes measurable KPIs.
• Choose a segmented procurement strategy (Copilot+ for roles that gain real uplift; standard Windows 11 Pro for the rest).
• Budget ESU only for critical legacy devices and cap ESU as a one‑year tactical move, not a long‑term plan.
• Adopt Autopilot + Intune + Windows Autopatch or a managed service to avoid imaging and to accelerate provisioning.
• Build a security lifecycle for NPUs and on‑device models: inventory NPUs, track driver releases, and treat model stores as a managed runtime.

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Strengths, Weaknesses and the Final Assessment​

Strengths​

• Clear calendar discipline: October 14, 2025 is a hard deadline that removes indecision and forces a project-based approach.
• Meaningful capabilities: On‑device NPUs unlock low‑latency features (Recall, Live Captions, Cocreator) that can produce real productivity gains for targeted roles.
• Improved security & manageability options: Hardware‑rooted security primitives and vPro remote management reduce break/fix costs for SMBs that adopt them correctly.

Risks and caveats​

• Marketing numbers vs. real jobs: Vendor percentages are workload‑specific; pilots are mandatory to validate real ROI.
• Operational overhead: NPUs and model lifecycle create new patch surfaces and governance needs that IT teams must manage.
• Fragmentation & timing: Copilot+ features are staggered by device and region; feature parity is not guaranteed across SKUs.
• Cost and e‑waste: A broad, simultaneous swap to Copilot+ devices is expensive and increases environmental disposal needs unless managed through trade‑in/refurbish programs.

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Conclusion​

The Windows 10 end‑of‑support date is a non‑negotiable calendar event that converts a deferred refresh problem into a short, hard project window for SMBs. The industry’s simultaneous push of Copilot+ and AI‑capable PCs offers a sensible path: address security and compliance (don't rely on perpetual ESU), target investments toward roles that will benefit from local AI acceleration, and use pilots and managed provisioning to control risk and cost. Independent forecasts from Canalys and Gartner confirm the market shift toward AI PCs, and vendor platforms such as Intel vPro with Core Ultra provide the manageability and security features that SMBs need to operationalize a safe, staged migration.
For SMB IT leaders the pragmatic imperative is straightforward: treat October 14, 2025 as a project deadline; pilot Copilot+ devices where the business case is clear; use ESU only as tactical breathing room; and adopt modern provisioning and model lifecycle controls so on‑device AI becomes a managed, measurable advantage rather than an uncontrolled risk.

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Source: The Malaysian Reserve https://themalaysianreserve.com/202...-pcs-as-windows-10-end-of-support-approaches/