The partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI, once heralded as a groundbreaking alliance in artificial intelligence (AI) development, is now facing significant challenges. Central to this discord is a contractual clause concerning the achievement of artificial general intelligence (AGI), which has become a contentious point as both companies navigate their future collaboration.
Origins of the Partnership
In 2019, Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI, aiming to support the startup's AI research and integrate its technologies into Microsoft's Azure cloud platform. This investment marked the beginning of a deep collaboration, with Microsoft later increasing its total investment to over $13 billion. The partnership allowed Microsoft exclusive rights to resell OpenAI's models and a 20% revenue share up to $92 billion. In return, OpenAI benefited from Microsoft's vast computing resources, essential for training and deploying advanced AI models. (ft.com)
The AGI Clause: A Double-Edged Sword
A pivotal element of the 2019 agreement was the inclusion of an AGI clause. This provision stipulated that upon OpenAI's achievement of AGI—a system capable of outperforming humans in most economically valuable tasks—Microsoft's access to OpenAI's technology would be terminated. The clause was initially designed to prevent the potential misuse of AGI for commercial purposes, ensuring that such powerful technology remained under the stewardship of OpenAI's nonprofit board. (ft.com)
At the time, AGI was considered a distant goal, more science fiction than imminent reality. However, rapid advancements in AI have brought this prospect closer, turning the once-theoretical clause into a pressing issue. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has expressed confidence in the company's trajectory toward AGI, stating, "We know how to make AGI." This assertion has intensified discussions about the clause's implications. (time.com)
Diverging Perspectives and Strategic Implications
Microsoft's leadership, particularly CEO Satya Nadella, has expressed skepticism regarding the arbitrary standards for declaring AGI. Nadella suggested that a practical criterion for AGI achievement could be a significant global economic impact, such as a 10% annual increase in economic growth. This perspective underscores Microsoft's concern that an early declaration of AGI by OpenAI could prematurely terminate their access to critical technologies, potentially disrupting Microsoft's AI-driven initiatives like Copilot and Bing Chatbot. (ft.com)
Conversely, OpenAI is exploring restructuring options to facilitate an initial public offering (IPO). This includes revising the AGI clause to allow continued collaboration with Microsoft post-AGI achievement. Such changes aim to attract further investment, acknowledging the substantial funding required for future AI developments. OpenAI plans to spend $46 billion over the next four years to secure servers and talent, necessitating significant financial backing. (ft.com)
Potential Outcomes and Industry Impact
If negotiations to amend the AGI clause fail, OpenAI's IPO plans could be jeopardized, and Microsoft's AI strategies might face significant setbacks. The dissolution of this partnership could lead to increased competition among tech giants like Google, Amazon, and Meta, as they vie to fill the void in the AI market. Additionally, OpenAI would face the challenge of rebuilding its infrastructure independently, a daunting task given the scale of resources currently provided by Microsoft. (ft.com)
Conclusion
The evolving dynamics between Microsoft and OpenAI highlight the complexities inherent in partnerships centered around rapidly advancing technologies. As both companies navigate the implications of AGI and their contractual obligations, the outcome of their negotiations will likely have profound effects on the AI industry and the future of technological collaboration.
Source: 매일경제 The relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI, which were allies of artificial intelligence (AI) dev.. - MK
