PC Shipments Rebound in 2025 Amid Windows Refresh and AI Push

PC shigheripments surged into the AI era: Gartner’s preliminary data shows global shipments reached 71.5 million units in Q4 2025, a 9.3% year‑over‑year increase, and totalled just over 270 million units for the full year—marking a decisive recovery for the PC market after several down years and signaling a market shaped by Windows refresh cycles, vendor AI positioning, and looming component price volatility.

Background​

The global PC market reversed course in 2025, emerging from two years of steep declines and modest gains in 2024 to deliver healthy year‑over‑year growth. Industry research firms reported broadly similar trends in Q4 and across the full year, although absolute totals differ by methodology: one major research house reports roughly 270 million units shipped for 2025, while other independent trackers put the number closer to 279–285 million. These methodological differences are typical for sell‑in shipment data and reflect variance in channel coverage, product definitions, and timing, but the underlying narrative is consistent: shipment growth was driven by enterprise refresh activity tied to Windows lifecycles, consumer demand for refreshed laptops, and vendor efforts to promote AI‑enabled systems.
Rishi Padhi, a research principal at a global analyst firm, summarized the quarter as a combination of robust consumer demand and business upgrades prompted by the Windows 11 migration and the winding down of Windows 10 Extended Security Update incentives. Vendors also leaned heavily into AI PC messaging to capture replacement demand—though practical, demonstrable productivity gains from local AI features remain uneven.

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Overview: The numbers and why they matter​

• Q4 2025 shipments: ~71.5 million units (reported growth ~9.3% YoY).
• Full‑year 2025 shipments: ~270 million units (Gartner) to ~279–285 million units (other firms).
• Top vendors by shipments: Lenovo, HP, Dell (maintaining the top three positions and increasing share YoY).
• Key drivers: Windows 11 upgrade cycle; end‑of‑support and ESU pressures for Windows 10; pre‑emptive inventory builds ahead of anticipated memory price increases; heavy marketing of AI PCs.
• Headwinds developing: memory supply tightness, tariff volatility, price pressure from promotions and inventory correction, and uncertain immediate business value from local AI features.

These figures are important because they signal the PC market's resilience and the potential for a near‑term re‑segmentation: mainstream volume growth driven by lifecycle refreshes, and a premium tier aimed at AI‑capable workstations and consumer devices. For OEMs, channel partners, and component suppliers, the 2025 rebound alters production and inventory strategies for 2026—when price volatility in memory and GPUs could shift demand and margins.

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Drivers of 2025 growth: Windows lifecycles, AI positioning, and inventory timing​

Windows 11 upgrade cycle and end of Windows 10 support​

One of the clearest, measurable catalysts for 2025 PC replacement activity was Microsoft’s Windows lifecycle calendar. With Windows 10 approaching end of support for broad consumer and enterprise versions, many organizations accelerated refresh programs to ensure compliance, security, and compatibility with modern management and security frameworks.

• Enterprises facing rising costs for Extended Security Updates (ESU) found replacement a more attractive option than continuing to buy patching contracts.
• Education and public sector procurement—often time‑boxed by fiscal calendars—front‑loaded purchases to meet procurement windows.
• The Windows upgrade narrative gave OEMs a tangible enterprise sales pitch: security, modern management, and compatibility for hybrid work.

This lifecycle replacement effect is a classic—upgrade cycles tied to OS support timelines usually create a multi‑quarter surge in commercial shipments. In 2025, that surge coincided with robust consumer demand during holiday promotions and year‑end channel restocking.

AI PCs: marketing momentum vs immediate productivity gains​

Vendors invested heavily in “AI PC” positioning—selling devices with on‑device inference engines, beefed‑up GPUs, and dedicated accelerators. Marketing around AI capability, local model inference, and developer ecosystems helped refresh narrative and differentiate SKUs. However, practical outcomes are mixed:

• On‑device inference and preconfigured AI toolchains can reduce latency and preserve privacy for certain use cases (e.g., local transcription, image enhancement).
• For enterprise productivity gains, cloud AI remains dominant for now: large language models and compute‑heavy inference tasks are still most effective in scalable cloud environments.
• Many organizations upgraded to “future‑proof” fleets: purchases were often defensive or strategic, rather than justified by immediate measurable ROI from local AI workloads.

In short, AI features helped sell hardware in 2025 by creating urgency and differentiation, but the business case for replacing systems to get immediate AI productivity remains under construction for many buyers.

Inventory builds and component timing​

A recurring theme in 2025 was front‑loading of orders due to expectations of component price increases—most notably DRAM and NAND flash—and concerns about tariff volatility. Vendors and resellers increased inventory to hedge against:

• Anticipated memory price hikes in 2026 driven by increased demand from AI datacenter builds.
• Tariff uncertainty and geopolitical headwinds that could disrupt supply chains or add landed cost to shipments.
• Channel partners responding to customer urgency around OS lifecycles.

This inventory build amplified shipments in FY2025. However, the same dynamics also seeded inventory overhang and price pressure late in Q4 as promotions and discounts offset earlier price increases, keeping average selling prices (ASPs) stable or slightly lower by quarter end.

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Vendor dynamics: who won, who consolidated, and what changed​

Top‑line vendor performance​

• Lenovo, HP, and Dell remained the Top 3 by unit shipments, each increasing share year‑over‑year. Lenovo retained the lead, reflecting broad product breadth across consumer and commercial segments.
• Apple maintained a strong premium segment position but commands a smaller unit share in overall PC market metrics because it focuses on higher ASP devices and vertically integrated hardware.
• Asus and Acer held mid‑tier positions with varying regional strength.

The marketplace shows consolidation toward established OEMs: scale matters. Large vendors with diverse supply chains were better positioned to secure scarce components and capture opportunistic enterprise refresh budgets.

Channel and geographic variations​

Regional performance diverged in 2025. Asia‑Pacific and EMEA often outperformed the Americas in several quarters, reflecting differing replacement cycles and public sector procurement timing. The Americas showed more sensitivity to tariff and macroeconomic conditions, moderating growth relative to other regions in some reports.
Channel players—value‑added resellers, distributors, and retail—also benefited from lifecycle replacements and consumer seasonal demand, but margins tightened where promotions were heavy and component price declines were anticipated.

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Component and supply risks shaping 2026 outlook​

Memory and storage pressures​

Memory (DRAM) and NAND supply tightened during 2025 as AI infrastructure and hyperscaler demand strained production capacity. The result: rising component prices and constrained availability. Several manufacturers signaled expectations of higher memory prices in 2026, prompting:

• Front‑loaded component purchases in 2025.
• Higher BOM (bill of materials) for AI‑oriented SKUs.
• Strategic prioritization by memory makers for datacenter buyers over consumer PC buyers, given higher margins.

That imbalance risks reducing supply to mainstream PC segments and pushing OEMs to alter configurations or increase prices.

GPU and accelerator demand​

High‑end GPUs and discrete accelerators faced dual pressure: scarcity due to datacenter demand, and price inflation as AI workloads consumed more silicon. For OEMs bundling higher‑performance GPUs into AI‑focused laptops and desktops, component costs rose, narrowing margin or pushing higher ASPs that some buyers resisted.

Tariff volatility​

Tariff policy fluctuations and trade restrictions remain a wildcard. Unexpected tariff moves can add material landed cost and complicate regional sourcing strategies, prompting vendors to either absorb costs, pass them to customers, or shift manufacturing footprints—each of which has operational friction and budgetary consequences.

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Pricing and ASP behavior: promotions, price pressure, and ASP convergence​

A notable late‑quarter trend was promotions eroding ASPs. Earlier in the cycle, OEMs increased price tags for high‑spec AI machines. By quarter end, heavier promotions and channel discounts countered some of those increases, leading to:

• Stable or slightly lower ASPs in Q4 despite premium SKUs hitting the market earlier in the year.
• Margin compression for OEMs and channel partners who sold stock at promotional pricing.
• A two‑tier market where premium AI SKUs sold at higher ASPs to early adopters, while broader market buyers had more price sensitivity.

This dynamic suggests a balancing between premium pricing for early AI capability adopters and mainstream price elasticity—important for forecasting revenue per unit and gross margins in 2026.

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Assessing the productivity claims of AI PCs​

Vendors highlight on‑device AI features—local inference, faster media processing, and offline model execution—as major value propositions. The reality is nuanced:

• Tangible gains: creative workflows (image/video editing), real‑time audio processing, and privacy‑sensitive tasks can see clear improvements from local inference.
• Limited scope: For heavy LLM tasks, large model inference, and enterprise‑scale AI workflows, cloud AI platforms still provide the performance, model freshness, and scale most organizations need.
• Transitional value: For many buyers, buying an AI PC is future‑proofing. They accept that immediate, measurable productivity lift may be modest today while positioning for future local AI workloads as edge models and toolchains mature.

Enterprises should therefore evaluate AI PC purchases with a pragmatic ROI lens: weigh security, manageability, and compatibility needs alongside any incremental AI features, and avoid paying a premium solely for speculative near‑term AI productivity.

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What this means for buyers, IT leaders, and channel partners​

Enterprise IT priorities​

• Audit device estate: inventory devices approaching end‑of‑support for OS or security tooling.
• Prioritize security and manageability: choose devices that align with modern management (MDM/Microsoft Endpoint Manager) and security baselines rather than feature gimmicks.
• Consider staged AI adoption: buy AI‑ready devices for roles where local inference offers clear benefits; otherwise, defer to cloud AI services until use cases are proven.

Consumer and small business buyers​

• If price is paramount, expect promotions and discounted 2025 models as OEMs clear inventory.
• If local AI features matter, target configurations with verified on‑device accelerators and appropriate GPU/DRAM specifications—recognizing that cloud alternatives may offer better performance per dollar for some workloads.

Channel strategy for resellers and distributors​

• Manage inventory carefully to avoid being caught with excess premium stock if demand softens in 2026.
• Educate customers on realistic AI PC benefits and on the tradeoffs between on‑device and cloud AI.
• Leverage Windows 11 migration programs and security narratives to capture enterprise refresh budgets.

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The financial and market implications for OEMs and suppliers​

• Scale advantage: Larger OEMs with diversified manufacturing and secured component allocations are best positioned to capture 2025 momentum and manage 2026 supply shocks.
• Margin pressure: If promotions continue and component costs rise, margins will be squeezed—prompting potential SKU rationalization or strategic price increases on premium models.
• Component suppliers: Memory and GPU suppliers enjoy stronger pricing power but also face customer concentration risks; their allocation decisions will materially influence the shape of the PC market in 2026.

Investors and market watchers should track component order books and guidance from major OEMs for signs of either continued front‑loading or inventory correction in the channel.

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Cross‑report differences and methodological caveats​

Different research houses returned similar directional results for 2025 growth but reported different absolute volumes: one firm’s preliminary full‑year total is ~270 million units, while others report totals in the high‑270s to mid‑280s million range. These gaps arise because:

• Data scope: some trackers include Chromebooks and certain commercial channels differently.
• Timing and revision: preliminary sell‑in data are frequently revised as final channel receipts and manufacturer reporting are reconciled.
• Geographic coverage: sampling and weighting for large regional markets can shift aggregate totals.

Readers should treat preliminary shipment numbers as high‑quality indicators rather than immutable final counts. Finalized market share reports typically follow weeks after the preliminary release and can slightly adjust vendor rankings and totals.

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Forecast and risks for 2026​

Most analysts expect 2026 to be a more volatile year for PC shipments than 2025. Key risks include:

• Memory and NAND price increases that could push consumer prices higher and compress volume demand.
• Continued GPU allocation to datacenters, limiting availability for high‑end consumer and workstation SKUs.
• Macro tightening or fiscal pressures that slow enterprise refresh cycles once Windows 10 EOL‑driven replacement demand normalizes.
• Tariff changes that could add landed cost or require manufacturing adjustments.

That said, some counterweights could support baseline demand: continued hybrid work patterns requiring device refresh, new form factors, and incremental consumer demand for creative and gaming PCs.

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Practical recommendations​

• For CIOs and IT procurement teams:
• Prioritize replacements where security and manageability risk is quantifiable.
• Negotiate pricing and supply terms that account for potential component volatility (e.g., longer lead times, capped price escalators).
• Consider mixed estate strategies—deploy “AI‑ready” machines only where the use case is validated.
• For OEMs and channel partners:
• Rebalance inventory exposure to avoid promotional overhang while keeping flexibility for opportunistic demand.
• Strengthen component commitments with suppliers where possible to secure supply for key SKUs.
• Educate buyers on realistic AI benefits and how to integrate on‑device capabilities with cloud services.
• For consumers:
• If upgrading for performance or battery life, 2025 models often represent good value as newer SKUs appear and retailers discount inventory.
• If buying specifically for AI features, evaluate use‑case fit carefully; not all advertised “AI” capabilities translate into tangible day‑to‑day improvements.

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Strengths, weaknesses, and final assessment​

Strengths of the 2025 rebound:

• Clear, measurable drivers (Windows lifecycle and security deadlines) created deterministic demand.
• Vendor AI messaging successfully converted future promise into purchase urgency for many buyers.
• Strong top‑tier vendor performance demonstrated the benefits of scale and supply chain resilience.

Risks and weaknesses to watch:

• Component tightening and price inflation in memory and accelerators threaten to reduce volumes and erode margins in 2026.
• Heavy promotional activity late in Q4 created price pressure that may compress 2026 revenue even if unit volumes remain healthy.
• A gap between marketed AI capabilities and immediate enterprise productivity means some upgrades were precautionary rather than ROI‑driven—this could dampen repeat upgrade cycles if local AI value does not materialize.

Final assessment: the 2025 PC rebound is real and meaningful, but it is a rebound shaped by one‑off timing factors (OS EOL, inventory hedging) and strategic positioning (AI PC marketing). The market enters 2026 with momentum but also significant uncertainty. Buyers should be strategic and selective, OEMs must manage supply and price carefully, and the broader industry should temper AI hype with evidence‑based deployment strategies.

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The PC market’s 2025 rebound confirms that the device still matters in an AI‑first era—but the next chapter will hinge on whether local AI capabilities translate into measurable business outcomes, how component markets evolve, and how vendors navigate pricing and supply challenges in 2026.

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Source: thehawk.in https://www.thehawk.in/news/economy-and-business/global-pc-shipments-up-93-pc-in-oct-dec-in-ai-era/