The global PC industry finds itself at a crossroads as Q2 2025 statistics reveal a surprising surge in shipments—a sharp contrast to the broader narrative of stalled consumer spending and economic caution. At first glance, the numbers present a picture of strength. According to recent data from analyst firm Canalys, worldwide shipments of desktops, notebooks, and workstations rose 7.4% year-over-year, totaling 67.6 million units. Lenovo, Apple, and other leading vendors reported robust growth. Yet, beneath the surface, a more complex and fragile reality emerges—one driven by looming software deadlines, corporate urgency, and volatile global trade policies, rather than genuine consumer confidence or innovation-driven demand.
The core driver behind this year’s shipment surge is neither technological breakthrough nor renewed enthusiasm from home users. Instead, it stems from the fast-approaching end of Microsoft Windows 10’s support lifecycle, set for October 2025. Businesses across industries are racing to replace aging hardware, much of it deployed during the pandemic, to ensure ongoing compatibility and security in a post-Windows 10 world. This cycle, described by Canalys Research Manager Kieren Jessop as providing “essential market stability,” has temporarily buoyed the industry, yet its benefits are unevenly distributed.
For enterprise IT, the incentive is crystal clear. Running critical systems on unsupported software exposes businesses to regulatory risks, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and operational headaches. Consequently, companies are fast-tracking new deployments and pulling forward device refresh plans from future years. Industry insiders widely agree that a significant percentage of the 67.6 million units shipped this quarter ended up in the hands of businesses, government agencies, and other large organizations, not consumers.
Canalys projects that personal device upgrades will most likely be delayed into next year, setting the stage for a potentially sharp, but temporary, spike in retail sales if and when these pandemic-era machines reach the end of their effective lives. This scenario would mirror previous cyclical patterns seen after Windows XP and 7’s retirement—which caused brief, unsustainable rushes followed by prolonged lulls.
Crucially, experts warn that the numbers mask inherent instability. “Despite global uncertainty, the Windows 10 end of support deadline... is affecting consumer and commercial segments differently,” says Jessop. This divergence is significant for stakeholders planning inventory, forecasting OEM earnings, or evaluating industry health. The glut of business-focused orders now could lead to a pronounced sales drought in subsequent quarters, barring the arrival of truly transformative technology or unexpected shifts in consumer sentiment.
IT departments, meanwhile, find themselves stuck between compliance and cost management. Upgrading early brings short-term security gains and guarantees support—but risks overextending budgets on hardware that may soon be eclipsed by more advanced next-generation devices. Postponing upgrades, on the other hand, leaves organizations exposed. There is little room for error, and the stakes have been heightened by a steady uptick in ransomware and targeted cybercrime against outdated systems.
Although PCs have thus far remained largely exempt from these tariffs, the situation is precarious. Any change in classification or further escalation in trade disputes could quickly eliminate cost advantages for manufacturers that moved production out of China to other Southeast Asian locations. There are already signs of stress in logistics and component sourcing, with some vendors stockpiling key parts in anticipation of more restrictive policies.
Ben Yeh, Canalys Principal Analyst, offers a sober perspective: “What began as straightforward China avoidance has evolved into a complex regulatory maze.” For OEMs, adapting to such shifting ground requires flexibility—and higher costs, which could ultimately be passed through to buyers if the tariff net tightens further. Those least equipped to manage this volatility, whether due to weaker logistics, thinner margins, or limited bargaining power, could lose market share in the coming years.
In every previous instance, PC demand inspired by an operating system’s end-of-life has rapidly abated. The anticipated “pull-forward” effect is real: organizations upgrade early to avoid deadline chaos, which in turn reduces organic demand for several quarters or even years thereafter. Combined with continued uncertainty in consumer appetite—delayed but still not guaranteed—it is likely that the second half of 2026 and beyond could see shipments flatten, or even retreat, unless spurred by genuinely new use cases.
A further concern is sustainability: while corporate refresh cycles are vital for network security and support compliance, the environmental toll of mass hardware replacement cannot be ignored. E-waste volumes are projected to climb in tandem with these replacement cycles, challenging both OEMs and lawmakers to accelerate progress on recycling and device longevity initiatives.
Alternatively, there is a very real risk that demand drops off sharply after the commercial refresh, especially if the macroeconomic situation fails to improve or if trade disruptions further strain the supply side. Under this scenario, the industry may revert to a familiar pattern of oversupply, inventory adjustments, and intense price competition.
There is also the wildcard of Microsoft’s next OS transition. With Windows 11 now in its maturity phase and Windows 12 (or its rumored successors) on the horizon, the software giant’s update cadence may set the tempo for all future PC refreshes. If Microsoft pushes further into subscription models, continuous delivery, or aggressively deprecates older hardware, it could create more frequent—but possibly smaller and less predictable—spikes in demand.
Trade tensions, shifting supply chains, and environmental concerns only add layers of uncertainty. Once the Windows 10 end-of-life passes, the PC industry will need to prove it can adapt to a landscape where forced upgrades are rare and real innovation is the only driver of growth. Until then, the software panic may keep shipments afloat—but only for as long as the ticking clock allows.
Source: TechRadar Lenovo, Apple, and others post huge PC numbers, but behind it all is looming software panic
A Closer Look at the PC Shipment Boom
The core driver behind this year’s shipment surge is neither technological breakthrough nor renewed enthusiasm from home users. Instead, it stems from the fast-approaching end of Microsoft Windows 10’s support lifecycle, set for October 2025. Businesses across industries are racing to replace aging hardware, much of it deployed during the pandemic, to ensure ongoing compatibility and security in a post-Windows 10 world. This cycle, described by Canalys Research Manager Kieren Jessop as providing “essential market stability,” has temporarily buoyed the industry, yet its benefits are unevenly distributed.Windows 10 End-of-Life: The Ultimate Trigger
It is rare to see a software event drive hardware sales to this extent. Microsoft’s official timeline for ceasing Windows 10 updates and support has created a forced upgrade cycle not seen since the sunset of Windows 7 and XP. The impact is most pronounced in the commercial sector. Jessop notes, “The commercial refresh cycle is providing vital momentum for the market,” with over half of channel partners expecting PC business growth through the end of 2025, and nearly a third predicting their gains will exceed 10%.For enterprise IT, the incentive is crystal clear. Running critical systems on unsupported software exposes businesses to regulatory risks, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and operational headaches. Consequently, companies are fast-tracking new deployments and pulling forward device refresh plans from future years. Industry insiders widely agree that a significant percentage of the 67.6 million units shipped this quarter ended up in the hands of businesses, government agencies, and other large organizations, not consumers.
Consumers Remain on the Sidelines
If enterprises are driving current demand, the consumer segment provides a stark counterpoint. Research indicates that individuals, facing economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures, continue to postpone big-ticket purchases like PC upgrades. Many are making do with devices purchased early in the pandemic, intending to stretch their lifespan until at least 2026. This hesitance is multifactorial. Aside from macroeconomic forces, consumers perceive fewer compelling reasons to upgrade. The shift toward web-based applications and cloud services, along with the longevity of modern hardware, means that older laptops and desktops remain serviceable for most personal tasks.Canalys projects that personal device upgrades will most likely be delayed into next year, setting the stage for a potentially sharp, but temporary, spike in retail sales if and when these pandemic-era machines reach the end of their effective lives. This scenario would mirror previous cyclical patterns seen after Windows XP and 7’s retirement—which caused brief, unsustainable rushes followed by prolonged lulls.
Winners and Losers: The OEM Landscape in Flux
Recent shipment data reveal which OEMs are capitalizing on these temporary tailwinds—and which are struggling to adapt.- Lenovo maintained its position atop the global PC leaderboard, shipping 17.0 million units—up 15.2% compared to last year. The company’s deep roots in enterprise and education markets, as well as its ability to navigate supply chain complexity, have solidified its dominance during this cycle.
- HP followed with 14.1 million units shipped, a 3.2% increase. While still formidable, HP’s slower growth suggests it is not benefiting as disproportionately from the business refresh as Lenovo.
- Dell, traditionally a robust commercial player, actually saw shipments decline 3.0%. Analysts suggest that Dell’s more conservative channel strategy or exposure to specific markets facing heavy economic headwinds could explain the slip.
- Apple stands out for different reasons. With macOS unaffected by Microsoft’s end-of-support policies, Apple still posted a 21.3% increase—shipping 6.4 million units. This spike likely reflects pent-up demand for M3-powered Macs and their appeal to education, creative, and professional users.
- Asus reported an impressive 18.4% boost, pointing to the sustained appeal of its notebooks and continued innovation within Windows ecosystems.
The Shadow of Software Deadlines
Microsoft’s policy choices cast an unusually long shadow over these results. The company’s aggressive sunsetting of Windows 10, like past transitions, is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it injects predictability into PC sales cycles, providing a welcome lifeline after sluggish pandemic-era growth. On the other, it creates artificial demand that will inevitably dissipate once the deadline passes.Crucially, experts warn that the numbers mask inherent instability. “Despite global uncertainty, the Windows 10 end of support deadline... is affecting consumer and commercial segments differently,” says Jessop. This divergence is significant for stakeholders planning inventory, forecasting OEM earnings, or evaluating industry health. The glut of business-focused orders now could lead to a pronounced sales drought in subsequent quarters, barring the arrival of truly transformative technology or unexpected shifts in consumer sentiment.
IT departments, meanwhile, find themselves stuck between compliance and cost management. Upgrading early brings short-term security gains and guarantees support—but risks overextending budgets on hardware that may soon be eclipsed by more advanced next-generation devices. Postponing upgrades, on the other hand, leaves organizations exposed. There is little room for error, and the stakes have been heightened by a steady uptick in ransomware and targeted cybercrime against outdated systems.
Trade Policy: The Unseen Wildcard
Equally critical, yet somewhat underreported, are the impacts of evolving global trade policies. The Canalys report highlights the uncertainty injected into supply chains by recent tariff negotiations, especially between the US, China, and Vietnam. The Trump administration’s shifting position—introducing new tariffs of up to 20% on Vietnamese goods and as much as 40% on items classified as “transshipped”—has turned what was once a straightforward shift away from China into what analysts call “a complex regulatory maze.”Although PCs have thus far remained largely exempt from these tariffs, the situation is precarious. Any change in classification or further escalation in trade disputes could quickly eliminate cost advantages for manufacturers that moved production out of China to other Southeast Asian locations. There are already signs of stress in logistics and component sourcing, with some vendors stockpiling key parts in anticipation of more restrictive policies.
Ben Yeh, Canalys Principal Analyst, offers a sober perspective: “What began as straightforward China avoidance has evolved into a complex regulatory maze.” For OEMs, adapting to such shifting ground requires flexibility—and higher costs, which could ultimately be passed through to buyers if the tariff net tightens further. Those least equipped to manage this volatility, whether due to weaker logistics, thinner margins, or limited bargaining power, could lose market share in the coming years.
What Happens After the Surge? Sustainability and Risk
Perhaps the most crucial question is what happens once the software-driven business refresh cycle passes its peak. Will the record Q2 numbers prove a high-water mark for the next several years, or merely the beginning of a more dynamic recovery? Historical precedent suggests caution.In every previous instance, PC demand inspired by an operating system’s end-of-life has rapidly abated. The anticipated “pull-forward” effect is real: organizations upgrade early to avoid deadline chaos, which in turn reduces organic demand for several quarters or even years thereafter. Combined with continued uncertainty in consumer appetite—delayed but still not guaranteed—it is likely that the second half of 2026 and beyond could see shipments flatten, or even retreat, unless spurred by genuinely new use cases.
A further concern is sustainability: while corporate refresh cycles are vital for network security and support compliance, the environmental toll of mass hardware replacement cannot be ignored. E-waste volumes are projected to climb in tandem with these replacement cycles, challenging both OEMs and lawmakers to accelerate progress on recycling and device longevity initiatives.
Critical Analysis: Strengths, Weaknesses, and the Looming Challenges
Strengths
- Short-Term Stability: The Windows 10 end-of-life has stabilized the market at a crucial moment, preventing what might have otherwise been a significant contraction in the face of macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.
- Robust Commercial Channel: Vendors with strong enterprise and government relationships—Lenovo, HP, Dell—have succeeded in capturing nearly all incremental demand, highlighting the continued relevance and resilience of traditional B2B sales networks.
- Innovation Opportunities: Apple’s success, driven less by legacy OS cycles than by silicon and ecosystem innovation, illustrates that there is still room for meaningful differentiation. Similarly, Asus’s gains hint at sustained demand for features that resonate with niche or advanced users.
Risks and Weaknesses
- Artificial Cycle Dependency: The industry’s reliance on forced OS upgrade cycles reveals a lack of fundamental growth in consumer-side demand. Absent compelling new applications—AI, mixed reality, or advances in gaming—the sector risks continued stagnancy.
- Trade Policy Uncertainty: The future of PC manufacturing costs remains highly contingent on geopolitical decisions outside the industry’s control. Tariff policy, in particular, could reverse competitive gains overnight.
- Sustainability Risks: A rapid replacement cycle, if not matched with aggressive recycling and refurbishment programs, will intensify environmental challenges. Neither OEMs nor regulators appear fully prepared for an e-waste surge commensurate with the current refresh rate.
- Inventory and Channel Risk: Should consumer demand fail to rebound as anticipated in 2026, manufacturers could face overstocking, price erosion, and margin compression.
The Road Ahead: Where Does the PC Market Go From Here?
Looking forward, several scenarios could play out. In the best-case outlook, consumer sentiment rebounds in 2026 as economic headwinds subside and a new wave of pandemic-era devices reaches obsolescence. Combined with the rise of “AI PC” narratives, the arrival of ARM-based Windows systems, or breakthroughs in hybrid work solutions, this could drive a new, organic cycle of upgrades.Alternatively, there is a very real risk that demand drops off sharply after the commercial refresh, especially if the macroeconomic situation fails to improve or if trade disruptions further strain the supply side. Under this scenario, the industry may revert to a familiar pattern of oversupply, inventory adjustments, and intense price competition.
There is also the wildcard of Microsoft’s next OS transition. With Windows 11 now in its maturity phase and Windows 12 (or its rumored successors) on the horizon, the software giant’s update cadence may set the tempo for all future PC refreshes. If Microsoft pushes further into subscription models, continuous delivery, or aggressively deprecates older hardware, it could create more frequent—but possibly smaller and less predictable—spikes in demand.
SEO Key Phrases and Industry Implications
Throughout this period, several SEO-friendly themes have dominated analyst and media coverage, reflecting search traffic and broad user interest:- Windows 10 end of life 2025
- Global PC shipment trends
- Best PC upgrades for business
- Commercial PC refresh cycle
- PC supply chain tariffs and trade policy
- Apple vs. Windows market share
- Environmental impact of PC upgrades
- Next-generation PCs: AI, ARM, and hybrid work
Conclusion: Opportunity—and Panic—Under the Surface
The Q2 2025 PC shipment surge is, by all accounts, impressive. It demonstrates the power of software lifecycles and the enduring importance of the commercial market. However, beneath the headline numbers lies a market still struggling to generate lasting, organic growth. Enterprises are buying because they must, not because they want to. Consumers are waiting for a better moment, or a better reason, to invest.Trade tensions, shifting supply chains, and environmental concerns only add layers of uncertainty. Once the Windows 10 end-of-life passes, the PC industry will need to prove it can adapt to a landscape where forced upgrades are rare and real innovation is the only driver of growth. Until then, the software panic may keep shipments afloat—but only for as long as the ticking clock allows.
Source: TechRadar Lenovo, Apple, and others post huge PC numbers, but behind it all is looming software panic
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