The global PC market, once battered by pandemic hangovers and persistent economic headwinds, is now on track for an unexpected rebound in 2025, according to International Data Corporation’s (IDC) most recent forecast. IDC now projects that worldwide PC shipments will reach 274 million units in 2025—a 4.1% increase compared to last year. This outlook comes even as the industry contends with familiar challenges: the specter of renewed U.S. tariffs, persistent inflation, and widespread uncertainty dogging consumer and business confidence.
IDC’s revision is significant. For much of the previous year, market watchers and supply chain players braced for a flat—or even contracting—PC market. Macro factors, including a tightening global economy, surging component costs, and labor disruptions, prompted many to put off upgrades or stretch existing equipment further. But the latest figures suggest a growing confluence of demand drivers: businesses are gearing up for a broad Windows 11 migration, small and medium-sized enterprises are refreshing pandemic-era stockpiles, and most notably, manufacturers are expediting shipments to the U.S. to sidestep looming tariff hikes.
IDC clarifies what counts as a “PC” in its methodology. The tally comprises desktops, notebooks, and workstations but notably excludes tablets and x86 servers. This distinction is crucial in framing the scale and trajectory of the market’s growth when compared to the total computing device landscape.
There is, therefore, a risk of a “shipment cliff” where second-half numbers underwhelm as channel inventories swell and demand falters. This pattern was seen before in 2019 and 2020 during earlier waves of the U.S.–China trade war, when initial surges quickly gave way to slack quarters once policy changes crystallized. Financial analysts at major banks, including JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, have also sounded caution, warning that aggressive pre-tariff shipping could leave vendors with bloated inventories—a dicey situation should demand prove softer than hoped.
Software-driven upgrade cycles have reliably boosted shipments in past decades, particularly when operating system support sunsets force a fresh wave of compliance-driven purchases. The scale of this effect varies by region and company size, but medium and large organizations often move in waves, deploying new machines alongside broader security and infrastructure updates. Notably, the current Windows 11 transition has been somewhat slower than past cycles, owing in part to pandemic-era purchases and extended hardware longevity.
But there are signs this upgrade wave is gaining momentum. According to multiple independent reports, including those from Forrester and Spiceworks, IT decision-makers are budgeting for higher refresh rates in the coming fiscal year. As one CIO from a multinational financial institution told 9to5Mac, “Moving to Windows 11 isn’t just about features; it’s increasingly a compliance and security imperative.”
Small and medium-sized businesses, often slower to buy in the early years of an upgrade cycle, are now following larger organizations’ lead. Channel feedback from distributors such as Tech Data and Ingram Micro shows healthy double-digit order increases in select EMEA markets, particularly among SMBs in manufacturing, professional services, and education.
Yet, it’s not a uniform story. Some emerging markets in the Middle East and Africa still face logistical and financial constraints, dampening the overall regional picture. Analyst houses warn that currency weakness and political instability could temper gains if current macroeconomic volatility persists.
If tariffs return—potentially raising PC costs by up to 25% for U.S. importers, based on previous rounds—retail prices will rise, and demand is likely to recede, especially in the already-challenged consumer space. Businesses may delay less-essential purchases, and channel partners could find themselves with excess inventory at risk of deep discounting.
Independent market watchers, including those at Bloomberg and Reuters, confirm that most major PC vendors have not fundamentally altered their long-term U.S. supply chain strategies, largely because predicting future policy remains a fool’s errand. Instead, the playbook is largely tactical: ship now, adjust later, and hope for more clarity before Q3.
Historically, Apple has managed to sidestep some price elasticity through a combination of brand loyalty and premium positioning—Apple’s customers are generally less price-sensitive than PC buyers in the mass market. Still, if tariffs hit and retail prices bump upwards, some impact is inevitable. Analyst projections from Counterpoint Research and Strategy Analytics suggest the Mac segment could see a modest lift in the second half of the year, assuming new features resonate and the supply chain holds steady.
A closer look at the mechanics reveals that much of the 2025 bump is being ‘borrowed’ from the future. The rush to ship PCs ahead of tariff deadlines will likely leave a hangover of excess inventory just as macroeconomic conditions remain touch-and-go. Should consumer or business sentiment take another hit, or if the policy winds shift sharply, there’s little structural support for a sustained rally in unit shipments.
Moreover, Western PC markets remain highly mature. While commercial and SMB sectors are relatively shielded by regulatory and operational upgrade cycles, consumer appetite has flattened; tablets, smartphones, and cloud computing continue to supplant desktop and notebook needs for millions of users. Growth, where it exists, is mostly about replacement rather than true market expansion.
The Windows 11 upgrade cycle presents a clear and present opportunity, though its effects are likely to taper off quickly. Unlike the Windows XP and Windows 7 sunsets, organizations today can stretch hardware further thanks to web-based apps and improved device management. This will likely cap the scope and duration of new PC fleet rollouts, especially as economic uncertainties persist.
On the strategic front, the industry is at the mercy of policymakers. Regardless of efficiency, innovation, or marketing, global supply chains cannot fully insulate themselves against sudden tariff hikes or regulatory changes. Companies with deep pockets and diverse global exposure (think Lenovo, HP, Dell, Apple) are best positioned to weather volatility. Small regional players and consumer-focused brands are more vulnerable.
For buyers, now is a prime opportunity to upgrade while incentives and supply remain favorable—but careful attention to pricing, especially in the U.S., is essential should tariffs return. For vendors, the imperative is to balance urgent fulfillment today against the likely need for flexibility and discounting tomorrow.
What comes after this ‘tariff sprint’ will determine whether PC growth is sustainable or simply an artifact of circumstance. As always, the watchwords are vigilance, agility, and a willingness to adapt at speed—qualities the PC market, after all its cycles of bust and boom, has always had in spades.
Source: 9to5Mac IDC now expects global PC shipments to grow in 2025 - 9to5Mac
A Shifting Forecast: Growth Amidst Uncertainty
IDC’s revision is significant. For much of the previous year, market watchers and supply chain players braced for a flat—or even contracting—PC market. Macro factors, including a tightening global economy, surging component costs, and labor disruptions, prompted many to put off upgrades or stretch existing equipment further. But the latest figures suggest a growing confluence of demand drivers: businesses are gearing up for a broad Windows 11 migration, small and medium-sized enterprises are refreshing pandemic-era stockpiles, and most notably, manufacturers are expediting shipments to the U.S. to sidestep looming tariff hikes.IDC clarifies what counts as a “PC” in its methodology. The tally comprises desktops, notebooks, and workstations but notably excludes tablets and x86 servers. This distinction is crucial in framing the scale and trajectory of the market’s growth when compared to the total computing device landscape.
Manufacturers Race Against the Tariff Clock
At the heart of IDC’s revised growth story lies a key policy development: the Trump administration’s 90-day exemption from new tariffs on PCs. This brief window has triggered a surge of front-loaded shipments as vendors race to get devices on U.S. soil before costs potentially spike in the latter half of the year. As IDC succinctly notes:This preemptive action isn’t without historical precedent. Similar runs on inventory happened in advance of previous trade skirmishes—manufacturers front-load supplies, distributors prep for price hikes, and retailers brace for volatility. However, this momentum is by definition unsustainable. IDC and other analysts agree: if tariffs snap back into place and inflation continues to erode household and business purchasing power, the market could face a precipitous drop as early as Q3 2025.
There is, therefore, a risk of a “shipment cliff” where second-half numbers underwhelm as channel inventories swell and demand falters. This pattern was seen before in 2019 and 2020 during earlier waves of the U.S.–China trade war, when initial surges quickly gave way to slack quarters once policy changes crystallized. Financial analysts at major banks, including JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, have also sounded caution, warning that aggressive pre-tariff shipping could leave vendors with bloated inventories—a dicey situation should demand prove softer than hoped.
Inflation and Consumer Sentiment: Threats on the Horizon
Adding to the uncertainty is the broader global economic climate. Inflation continues to apply upward pressure to prices on both the supply and demand side. For consumers, rising costs may continue to sap discretionary spending, making non-essential upgrades a tougher sell. Businesses, too, face squeezed budgets and a climate of cost containment across regions. IDC expressly points to the risk:Here, independent assessments from financial prognosticators and technology market analysts align. The World Bank and IMF have both flagged sluggish economic recoveries in Europe and parts of Asia, while the Federal Reserve continues to carefully signal the likelihood of persistent inflation. Industry watchdogs such as Gartner and Canalys echo IDC’s view—growth this year is real but fragile, largely at the mercy of fluid policy and economic developments.
Windows 11 Fuels Enterprise Replacement Cycles
One consistently robust engine for PC shipments, at least in the commercial segment, remains the ongoing rollout of Windows 11. With extended support for Windows 10 set to expire, organizations in regulated industries and large enterprises are methodically refreshing fleets of aging hardware. IDC highlights this point, stressing that commercial demand for PCs is expected to remain healthy in 2025 specifically due to the migration to Windows 11.Software-driven upgrade cycles have reliably boosted shipments in past decades, particularly when operating system support sunsets force a fresh wave of compliance-driven purchases. The scale of this effect varies by region and company size, but medium and large organizations often move in waves, deploying new machines alongside broader security and infrastructure updates. Notably, the current Windows 11 transition has been somewhat slower than past cycles, owing in part to pandemic-era purchases and extended hardware longevity.
But there are signs this upgrade wave is gaining momentum. According to multiple independent reports, including those from Forrester and Spiceworks, IT decision-makers are budgeting for higher refresh rates in the coming fiscal year. As one CIO from a multinational financial institution told 9to5Mac, “Moving to Windows 11 isn’t just about features; it’s increasingly a compliance and security imperative.”
Regional Picture: Growth Across EMEA, SMB Segments
IDC’s report calls out particular regions as engines of growth. The combined Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) bloc is on track to post gains well into the second quarter and beyond, with both large and small businesses taking part in what amounts to a rolling refresh. The coronavirus pandemic spurred a global scramble for remote-capable PCs, and now—three years later—those rapidly deployed machines are candidates for replacement.Small and medium-sized businesses, often slower to buy in the early years of an upgrade cycle, are now following larger organizations’ lead. Channel feedback from distributors such as Tech Data and Ingram Micro shows healthy double-digit order increases in select EMEA markets, particularly among SMBs in manufacturing, professional services, and education.
Yet, it’s not a uniform story. Some emerging markets in the Middle East and Africa still face logistical and financial constraints, dampening the overall regional picture. Analyst houses warn that currency weakness and political instability could temper gains if current macroeconomic volatility persists.
The Tariff Question: Uncertainty Lingers
The fate of the U.S. tariff waivers remains the wild card in IDC’s 2025 forecast. While the current 90-day exemption has undoubtedly pulled forward demand, what happens next is anything but clear. Administration officials remain noncommittal about a permanent solution, and there is little consensus in the business community or on Capitol Hill about the best path forward.If tariffs return—potentially raising PC costs by up to 25% for U.S. importers, based on previous rounds—retail prices will rise, and demand is likely to recede, especially in the already-challenged consumer space. Businesses may delay less-essential purchases, and channel partners could find themselves with excess inventory at risk of deep discounting.
Independent market watchers, including those at Bloomberg and Reuters, confirm that most major PC vendors have not fundamentally altered their long-term U.S. supply chain strategies, largely because predicting future policy remains a fool’s errand. Instead, the playbook is largely tactical: ship now, adjust later, and hope for more clarity before Q3.
The Apple Angle: Waiting for a Mac Resurgence
While IDC’s report does not break out shipment estimates by vendor, all eyes are on Apple as the company prepares for a major Mac refresh and the unveiling of new macOS AI features at WWDC in June. Given Apple’s growing share of the global premium PC market, industry observers are watching closely to gauge whether Cupertino can galvanize its base in the face of tariff challenges.Historically, Apple has managed to sidestep some price elasticity through a combination of brand loyalty and premium positioning—Apple’s customers are generally less price-sensitive than PC buyers in the mass market. Still, if tariffs hit and retail prices bump upwards, some impact is inevitable. Analyst projections from Counterpoint Research and Strategy Analytics suggest the Mac segment could see a modest lift in the second half of the year, assuming new features resonate and the supply chain holds steady.
Looking Forward: Scenarios and Strategic Risks
While IDC’s headline number suggests optimism, the report and independent analysis urge caution. The 4.1% growth figure rests on several assumptions: the tariff exemption either gets extended or replaced by a less punitive regime, inflation cools by Q3, and commercial upgrades stay on schedule. Should any of these variables break in the wrong direction, the market’s recovery will look far shakier.Key Growth Drivers
- Windows 11 migration: Both large and small organizations are accelerating upgrades to meet compliance deadlines and access improved security.
- Replacement cycles: Many businesses are swapping out pandemic-era hardware, now three or four years old, across regions like EMEA and North America.
- Tariff window: Manufacturers are moving aggressively to maximize shipments ahead of potential cost increases with efficient, sometimes risky, inventory management.
- Enterprise and SMB demand: Both segments remain relatively resilient, buoyed by a combination of regulatory requirements and productivity enhancements.
Principal Risks
- Tariff snapback: If exemptions lapse, the U.S. market could see double-digit price rises and a sharp pullback in both consumer and business spending.
- Inflation and macroeconomics: Persistent upward pressure on prices may erode buying power, especially for consumers and cash-strapped small businesses.
- Channel risk: Accelerated shipments now could translate to inventory gluts later, triggering deep discounts and eroding margins.
- Policy unpredictability: Ongoing trade tension between the U.S. and China introduces volatility that is difficult for even the largest players to hedge.
Critical Analysis: Fragile Gains, Conditional Optimism
There is genuine cause for optimism in the revised IDC forecast—a positive growth story after several quarters of malaise. The interplay of regulatory-driven upgrades, tactical supply chain maneuvers, and pent-up replacement demand has—at least temporarily—stabilized a market that once looked rudderless. That being said, the gains find their foundations on uneven ground.A closer look at the mechanics reveals that much of the 2025 bump is being ‘borrowed’ from the future. The rush to ship PCs ahead of tariff deadlines will likely leave a hangover of excess inventory just as macroeconomic conditions remain touch-and-go. Should consumer or business sentiment take another hit, or if the policy winds shift sharply, there’s little structural support for a sustained rally in unit shipments.
Moreover, Western PC markets remain highly mature. While commercial and SMB sectors are relatively shielded by regulatory and operational upgrade cycles, consumer appetite has flattened; tablets, smartphones, and cloud computing continue to supplant desktop and notebook needs for millions of users. Growth, where it exists, is mostly about replacement rather than true market expansion.
The Windows 11 upgrade cycle presents a clear and present opportunity, though its effects are likely to taper off quickly. Unlike the Windows XP and Windows 7 sunsets, organizations today can stretch hardware further thanks to web-based apps and improved device management. This will likely cap the scope and duration of new PC fleet rollouts, especially as economic uncertainties persist.
On the strategic front, the industry is at the mercy of policymakers. Regardless of efficiency, innovation, or marketing, global supply chains cannot fully insulate themselves against sudden tariff hikes or regulatory changes. Companies with deep pockets and diverse global exposure (think Lenovo, HP, Dell, Apple) are best positioned to weather volatility. Small regional players and consumer-focused brands are more vulnerable.
Conclusion: Proceed with Cautious Optimism
For PC manufacturers, channel partners, and IT buyers, IDC’s latest numbers represent a rare bright spot in an otherwise tumultuous global economy. The market is stabilizing, even showing signs of growth, underpinned by a mix of compliance-driven upgrades and shrewd logistics. But the conditions that created this window are themselves highly fragile, and few experts expect the current pace to hold beyond 2025 absent wider economic and policy improvements.For buyers, now is a prime opportunity to upgrade while incentives and supply remain favorable—but careful attention to pricing, especially in the U.S., is essential should tariffs return. For vendors, the imperative is to balance urgent fulfillment today against the likely need for flexibility and discounting tomorrow.
What comes after this ‘tariff sprint’ will determine whether PC growth is sustainable or simply an artifact of circumstance. As always, the watchwords are vigilance, agility, and a willingness to adapt at speed—qualities the PC market, after all its cycles of bust and boom, has always had in spades.
Source: 9to5Mac IDC now expects global PC shipments to grow in 2025 - 9to5Mac
