The global personal computer (PC) market is poised for modest growth in 2025, with International Data Corporation (IDC) projecting shipments to reach 273 million units, marking a 3.7% increase from the previous year. (idc.com) This forecast comes amid a complex landscape shaped by U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, evolving consumer demand, and the ongoing transition to Windows 11.
Impact of U.S. Tariffs on the PC Market
The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. government on Chinese goods has introduced significant challenges for the PC industry. These tariffs have led to increased production costs, which are often passed on to consumers, resulting in higher retail prices. Jitesh Ubrani, research manager at IDC, noted that "price hikes stemming from tariffs in the U.S. combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs." (idc.com)
In response to the 90-day tariff exemption on PCs, manufacturers accelerated shipments to the U.S. to mitigate potential future costs. This strategic move aimed to capitalize on the temporary relief, but IDC cautions that such a pace is unsustainable. If tariffs are reinstated and inflation continues to erode consumer confidence, the market could experience a downturn as early as the third quarter of 2025. (idc.com)
Commercial Demand and Windows 11 Migration
Despite these challenges, the commercial sector is expected to drive PC market growth in 2025. The transition to Windows 11 is prompting organizations to upgrade aging hardware, particularly as support for Windows 10 approaches its end in October 2025. This migration is anticipated to sustain demand, with IDC projecting that commercial PC volume, including education PCs, will grow by 4.3% in 2025. (idc.com)
Bryan Ma, vice president of Devices Research at IDC, highlighted Japan as a notable example of this trend:
Consumer Market Challenges and AI PC Adoption
The consumer segment faces headwinds due to economic pressures and market saturation. IDC forecasts a marginal growth of 0.2% in consumer PC and tablet shipments in 2025, totaling 236.7 million units. The introduction of AI-powered PCs is seen as a potential catalyst for future growth. While initial adoption has been slow, IDC anticipates a more robust ecosystem to emerge by late 2025, with most new PCs expected to be AI-capable by 2026. (idc.com)
Tablet Market Outlook
The tablet market is projected to decline, with shipments expected to shrink by 0.8% in 2025 to 143.3 million units. This gradual decline is attributed to consumer saturation and the lack of compelling new features to drive upgrades. (idc.com)
Conclusion
The global PC market in 2025 is navigating a complex environment marked by tariff uncertainties, economic pressures, and technological transitions. While challenges persist, particularly in the consumer segment, the commercial sector's demand driven by Windows 11 migration and the anticipated adoption of AI PCs offer avenues for growth. Manufacturers and stakeholders must remain agile, balancing short-term strategies with long-term investments to sustain momentum in an evolving market landscape.
Source: 9to5Mac IDC now expects global PC shipments to grow in 2025 - 9to5Mac
