The third quarter of 2025 delivered a clear — if nuanced — shot in the arm for the global PC market: shipments rose sharply as enterprises and consumers accelerated refresh programs ahead of Microsoft’s Windows 10 end-of-support deadline, while vendors simultaneously repositioned supply chains and product roadmaps around AI-enabled hardware. What looks like a single “refresh quarter” on the surface is actually the convergence of three forces — the Windows 10 end-of-support (EOS) deadline, earlier tariff-driven inventory moves that reshaped regional timing, and the industry’s pivot toward AI PCs — and each carries distinct implications for IT teams, vendors, the channel, and the environment.
The clock that mattered this year was Microsoft’s announced end of free mainstream support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025. That deadline forced many organizations to choose between upgrading existing machines to Windows 11 where compatible, buying new Windows 11-capable hardware, or enrolling eligible systems in Extended Security Updates (ESU) programs while they complete a transition plan. The result: an accelerated enterprise refresh cycle that pushed shipments higher in Q3.
At the same time, a separate operational pressure — the threat of new import tariffs announced earlier in 2025 — led multiple PC vendors and channel partners to pull demand forward, stockpiling inventory in the U.S. and other markets. That strategic timing had two effects: it helped vendors meet expected demand earlier in the year, and it compressed the remaining addressable growth in North America later in the year as channels digested stockpiled units.
Riding both waves, the industry also leaned harder into the next phase of PC differentiation: AI-capable systems with neural processing units (NPUs), "Copilot" integrations and other on-device acceleration that vendors argue will raise capabilities and prices.
Source: CIO Dive Windows 10 end-of-support boosts global PC shipment growth
Background / Overview
The clock that mattered this year was Microsoft’s announced end of free mainstream support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025. That deadline forced many organizations to choose between upgrading existing machines to Windows 11 where compatible, buying new Windows 11-capable hardware, or enrolling eligible systems in Extended Security Updates (ESU) programs while they complete a transition plan. The result: an accelerated enterprise refresh cycle that pushed shipments higher in Q3.At the same time, a separate operational pressure — the threat of new import tariffs announced earlier in 2025 — led multiple PC vendors and channel partners to pull demand forward, stockpiling inventory in the U.S. and other markets. That strategic timing had two effects: it helped vendors meet expected demand earlier in the year, and it compressed the remaining addressable growth in North America later in the year as channels digested stockpiled units.
Riding both waves, the industry also leaned harder into the next phase of PC differentiation: AI-capable systems with neural processing units (NPUs), "Copilot" integrations and other on-device acceleration that vendors argue will raise capabilities and prices.
Q3 2025: What the numbers tell us
A snapshot of shipment growth
- Preliminary industry tracking showed positive year-over-year growth in global PC shipments for Q3 2025 after several quarters of modest recovery.
- Multiple market trackers reported stronger totals, with two commonly referenced snapshots putting growth in the low-to-high single digits: one set of preliminary figures indicated around 69.9 million units (roughly +8.2% YoY), while other tracker reads — using slightly different methodologies — reported totals in the mid‑70 million range (near +9–9.5% YoY).
- All the major incumbent vendors posted year-over-year gains in the quarter, with Lenovo, HP Inc., Dell, Apple and ASUS remaining the top five by shipment volume and each capturing meaningful shares of that refresh demand.
Regional picture: Asia leads, North America lags late in the year
- Asia-Pacific and several education- and public-sector programs (notably in Japan and parts of Southeast Asia) provided robust demand, pushing regional volumes higher and driving the overall growth narrative.
- North America told a different story: shipments showed only modest growth late in the cycle. The slower quarter-over-quarter expansion in the U.S. and Canada largely reflected earlier channel stockpiling in anticipation of tariffs and a soft consumer market for entry-level devices; the result was that much of the demand that would otherwise have fallen in Q3 happened earlier in 2025.
Why tracker totals diverge (and what to believe)
Different industry trackers report different headline totals for the same quarter. Those differences are not errors — they come from:- Variations in methodology (sell‑in to channel versus sell‑through to end users).
- Cutoff windows for vendor reporting and shipments (which can shift a few weeks’ worth of volume between quarters).
- Geographic coverage differences and how OEMs classify “others” or small-brand shipments.
The Windows 10 end-of-support effect: refresh, migration, and ESU
The migration pressure
Microsoft’s decision to end standard support created a hard operational deadline for many organizations. The EOS date heightened the urgency for fleet security and compliance, leading to:- A surge in procurement for Windows 11-capable hardware where in-place upgrades were impractical or impossible.
- Prioritization of security-first replacement strategies for high-risk endpoints (front-line devices, high-value servers, financial terminals, etc.).
- Increased interest in managed migration programs, Windows Autopatch, and cloud-hosted desktop alternatives where hardware refresh was costly or slow.
The ESU safety valve and its limits
Extended Security Updates (ESU) remain an important transitional tool. ESU lets organizations keep receiving critical security patches for Windows 10 after the EOS date, but it is a temporary and often cost-bearing measure:- Enterprises can purchase ESU licensing through volume licensing channels for a limited number of years, with escalating per-device pricing annually.
- Consumer ESU options have been structured differently and generally offer short-term windows to buy time rather than a long-term safety net.
AI PCs: buzz, reality, and pricing pressure
What vendors are selling
Major OEMs moved quickly in 2025 to position a new class of systems as AI PCs — machines with on-device neural accelerators, Copilot integration keys, optimized drivers and software stacks for local AI inference, and marketing that highlighted generative AI workflows.- Vendors argue AI PCs deliver tangible benefits for content creation, collaboration, and certain productivity workflows through lower latency and privacy-controlled on-device processing.
- The product mix has shifted upward as AI-capable SKUs carry premium components and pricing, and some vendors forecast a gradual increase (single-digit to low‑double-digit) in average selling price for the segment.
Market adoption and skepticism
- Market analysts and buyers broadly agree AI PC shipments are rising, but adoption is heterogeneous. Organizations with clear on-device AI use cases (media, engineering, certain knowledge-work scenarios) are more likely to pay the premium; mainstream enterprise buyers remain conservative unless software vendors demonstrate clear, measurable value.
- AI PC adoption is not yet universal: some enterprise teams prefer cloud-based AI processing to avoid hardware refresh costs, while others hedge by adding a limited number of high-end AI devices to pilot workflows.
Supply chain moves and tariff-driven timing
Earlier in the year, announcements and the specter of import tariffs prompted strategic operational moves:- Some vendors accelerated shipments and shifted production to alternate factories in Southeast Asia and Mexico to reduce exposure to potential tariffs, resulting in U.S. channel stockpiling earlier in 2025.
- The front-loading of inventory had the secondary effect of dampening late-Q3 growth in North America because channels and certain buyers had already absorbed extra supply.
- Conversely, regions without equivalent early stockpiling saw the EOS deadline materialize as a sharper, more visible uptick in Q3 demand.
Vendor winners, product strategies, and channel dynamics
Incumbents capitalized on enterprise portfolios
Top OEMs with strong enterprise relationships and broad commercial portfolios captured the bulk of upgrade demand. Key strategic advantages included:- Global supply chains that could react quickly to regional policy changes.
- Established enterprise services for deployment, asset management, and lifecycle refresh.
- Early availability of Windows 11-compatible configurations and AI-capable SKUs.
Channel risks and inventory management
While vendors’ reactive stockpiling avoided short-term shortages, it created new risks:- Channels holding elevated inventory risk markdowns if demand weakens after the deadline passes.
- Aggressive sell‑in can artificially inflate quarterly shipment figures while masking slower sell‑through.
- Managed service providers and VARs need to coordinate deployment schedules to avoid bottlenecks in imaging, security hardening and provisioning.
Security, compliance and operational implications for IT leaders
Immediate priorities
- Inventory and risk triage: Audit device fleets to identify Windows 10 systems that cannot upgrade to Windows 11 due to hardware limits (TPM 2.0, Secure Boot, CPU compatibility, RAM/storage minimums).
- ESU enrollment: For critical systems that cannot be retired immediately, ensure ESU enrollment where appropriate and budgeted, understanding the limited time-limited nature of the program.
- Phased deployment: Implement a staged migration plan that prioritizes high-risk devices and high-value business users first, and non-critical systems later.
Technical requirements to evaluate
Windows 11’s minimum hardware requirements remain a gating factor for many older PCs:- Processor: 1 GHz or faster with 2 or more cores on a compatible 64-bit CPU, and vendor-maintained compatibility lists that effectively narrow the CPU field to chips manufactured since around 2018 for full feature support.
- RAM: Minimum 4 GB.
- Storage: Minimum 64 GB.
- System firmware: UEFI with Secure Boot capability.
- TPM: Trusted Platform Module (TPM) version 2.0 (often available as firmware TPM on many modern systems).
- Graphics: DirectX 12 compatible graphics with WDDM 2.0 driver.
Broader risks: e‑waste, accessibility and entry-level affordability
The EOS-driven refresh highlights uncomfortable tradeoffs:- Environmental impact: A rapid wave of replacement increases electronic waste and recycling burdens. Programs to repair, repurpose or responsibly recycle legacy hardware should be central to procurement and corporate sustainability plans.
- Equity and affordability: Stricter hardware requirements for Windows 11 risk excluding budget-conscious users and small organizations that cannot afford mass upgrades. Some users will turn to alternative OS options (Linux distributions, ChromeOS Flex), creating heterogeneous endpoint estates that complicate support.
- Compatibility and driver support: Peripheral and application compatibility risks rise as third-party vendors shift focus toward Windows 11 — some niche drivers and legacy business applications may not be supported on newer platforms without updates.
Practical checklist for IT procurement and security teams
- Inventory: Map all Windows 10 devices and categorize by upgradeability, business criticality, and end-user profile.
- Prioritize: Rank replacements by security exposure and business impact; assign ESU to only those you must keep online temporarily.
- Standardize: Define a target Windows 11 hardware baseline (including TPM and Secure Boot configuration) to reduce support complexity.
- Pilot: Deploy a pilot fleet of Windows 11 and AI-capable machines to validate application compatibility and measurable productivity gains before scaling.
- Procurement strategy: Negotiate phased procurement with vendors to reduce channel inventory risks and align purchases with deployment capacity.
- Sustainability: Integrate device reuse, refurbishment and certified recycling clauses into procurement contracts to mitigate e‑waste.
- Communication: Prepare clear internal messaging and helpdesk resources so end users understand timelines, trade-in programs, and any enrollment steps for consumer ESU or device trade-in incentives.
What this means for the channel, OEMs and component suppliers
- The refocus on enterprise refreshes and AI SKUs should support stronger top-line vendor performance as OEMs sell higher-margin devices, but it also raises execution complexity (software validation, firmware readiness, and training for IT integrators).
- Component suppliers that provide NPUs, specialized GPUs and AI accelerators stand to benefit from incremental demand — but weakness in the consumer entry-level segment could limit broad market expansion.
- Channel partners should manage the timing of shipment acceptance and deployment capacity to avoid a late‑quarter log‑jam where units arrive before organizations are ready to image and provision them.
Caveats, contested points and what remains uncertain
- The exact magnitude of Q3 growth differs across trackers; some market research firms reported roughly 8.2% YoY while others placed growth closer to 9.4%. These differences are real and methodological; relying on multiple tracker reads and vendor financials gives the clearest picture.
- The role of tariff-driven stockpiling in shaping North American weakness is supported by vendor commentary and channel behavior earlier in 2025, but quantifying that effect precisely — how many units moved earlier versus how many purchases were permanently advanced or canceled — is difficult in real time.
- AI PC demand is emerging and will vary by vertical. Expect pilot-driven adoption in creative, design and engineering teams, with broader uptake dependent on software vendors demonstrating clear ROI for on-device AI versus cloud alternatives.
Strategic conclusions for IT decision-makers
- The Q3 2025 shipment surge is a practical reminder that major platform deadlines have real operational consequences. The Windows 10 EOS created a compressed replacement window; organizations that acted early reduced risk and avoided rushed, costly last-minute purchases.
- Plan your next upgrade cycle with both security and sustainability in mind. Use ESU selectively to buy time, not as a long-term crutch.
- Where AI-capable hardware delivers measurable value, budget for a targeted refresh of priority groups. Where the value is unproven, prioritize security and manage costs through staggered purchase windows and procurement incentives.
- Align procurement timing to deployment capacity. Excess inventory at the vendor or channel does not help end users if IT teams lack the manpower to image, secure, and deploy devices.
Final assessment
Q3 2025 marks a turning point: the PC market has moved from recovery to cyclical replacement driven by a major platform event and reinforced by product evolution toward AI-capable systems. That combination will reshape who buys what and when — and it will force IT teams to balance security, cost, and sustainability. The immediate lift in shipments provides vendors with much‑needed momentum, but it also raises short- and medium-term risks for channels and buyers who misread timing or ignore deployment capacity and environmental responsibilities. The pragmatic path is a measured, prioritized rollout: secure the most critical endpoints now, validate AI value through pilots, and adopt a longer-term lifecycle strategy that avoids last-minute scrambles and unnecessary e‑waste.Source: CIO Dive Windows 10 end-of-support boosts global PC shipment growth
