The Surprising Renaissance of Desktops in Windows 11 Migration Across Europe

Four months stand between Windows 10 users and the end of standard support, and the pressure is on businesses to leave the comfort of familiar territory. Yet, for many, the path forward is not a wholesale embrace of sleek new laptops or futuristic AI-powered devices. Instead, across Europe's enterprises, the classic desktop PC—the unsung workhorse—has become the surprise hero of the Windows 11 migration story, its resurgence marked by a blend of necessity, reluctance, and hard economic facts.

The Desktop Resurgence: Contextualizing the Shift​

In the first two months of the second quarter, distributors and resellers across Europe reported a surge in desktop shipments to enterprise customers: unit sales jumped an impressive 22 percent compared to the previous year, with corresponding year-on-year revenue swelling by 17 percent, according to channel analyst firm Context. The drivers behind this unexpected uptick? A mix of commercial refresh cycles that had been put off for too long and the rapidly approaching Windows 10 end-of-support deadline.
Marie Christine Pygott, Context’s senior analyst, underscored the pattern: "Desktops have been the standout performer over the past six months. Their share of total PC revenues in early Q2 reached nearly 17 percent, the highest level in Context's two-year reporting period. This reflects both a long-overdue refresh cycle in commercial environments and the typical spike in demand ahead of major OS support deadlines."
What’s particularly telling: the spike isn’t confined to one region or segment. Germany’s surge in desktop sales reportedly led to "availability constraints in some cases," while the UK saw growth in both commercial and consumer desktops. Poland experienced a notable jump in retail and SME (small and medium-sized enterprise) sectors. Such broad-based momentum confirms that the desktop, often dismissed as outdated, remains vital in professional settings where reliability and compatibility are paramount.

Market Share Stalemate: The Reluctance to Upgrade​

Despite the hardware turnover, actual migration to Windows 11 trails expectations. Data from StatCounter showed Windows 10 still commanding over half (53.9 percent) of desktop Windows version market share in May, while Windows 11 trailed at 43.2 percent. Many customers, enterprise and consumer alike, have been notably resistant to Microsoft’s latest OS.
There are several reasons for this inertia:

• Economic Uncertainty: A slowing global economy has made enterprises cautious. Rather than plunging headlong into expensive upgrades, many opted to defer, squeezing extra life from their Windows 10 machines.
• Hardware Incompatibility: The stringent requirements of Windows 11—like mandatory TPM 2.0, Secure Boot, and modern CPUs—mean that large swathes of perfectly serviceable hardware are incompatible. This is no minor issue for businesses with extensive fleets of aging systems; it equates to significant additional cost beyond software licensing.
• Delayed Refresh Cycles: Pandemic-era purchases created a large stock of computers just old enough to need replacement, but not so old as to be useless. Vendors like Dell and HP have acknowledged that refresh cycles, theoretically timed with Windows 11’s rollout, have been “delayed for sure” and “behind others,” according to their executives in recent earnings calls.

Critical Voices: Industry Leaders’ Measured Optimism and Warnings​

Industry heavyweights have chimed in with realistic, sometimes guarded, outlooks on the transition:

• Dell’s Michael Dell and Jeff Clarke: Both have commented on the slower-than-expected pace but point out they're now witnessing a “good growth” spurt as the deadline looms.
• HP's Enrique Lores: Lores has repeatedly warned about the "aging installed base," initially predicting that new purchases would ramp up, but has since acknowledged that ongoing economic headwinds and rising component prices may dampen demand. HP has even lowered its PC sales forecast for the latter half of its fiscal 2025, pivoting from the expectation that a Windows-11-led refresh would significantly lift growth. Lores recently cited economic uncertainty and anticipated industry-wide price hikes as likely contributors to a “potential impact in the demand that we see.”
• HP CFO Karen Parkhill: On the plus side, Parkhill maintains that, "Win 11 does remain a catalyst for the back half." However, she tempers her optimism, noting that strong demand isn’t guaranteed unless economic and consumer sentiment improves.

The Curious Case of AI PCs: Hype Runs Ahead of Reality​

In the same period, notebooks—including the much-hyped AI-ready models—have seen only modest growth. Distributor unit sales of notebooks climbed a modest 2 percent, while revenue rose 7 percent due in part to a larger share of high-margin, AI-powered devices. According to Context, AI-capable notebooks (with dedicated Neural Processing Units/NPUs) accounted for approximately 40-41 percent of recent unit sales. Yet, tellingly, this was largely attributable to pressure from vendors to stock these devices, rather than genuine customer demand.
The crux of the matter: “no killer app” for AI PCs has emerged. Enterprises are unconvinced that the higher acquisition costs—often 10 to 20 percent above traditional laptops—are justified. The “build it and they will come” approach, so far, isn’t panning out. Companies are sticking to familiar desktop configurations for mission-critical work and only tentatively embracing notebooks with enhanced AI features.

Risk Factors: Why Adoption Hesitation Persists​

These sales trends underscore several notable risks and points of friction in the market:

• Cost Sensitivity: The economic climate remains volatile. Organizations are managing reduced budgets, leading to careful scrutiny of any PC refresh project—especially those that require replacing hardware to satisfy Windows 11’s tight security prerequisites.
• Supply Chain and Pricing Pressures: Muted demand is further complicated by pricing signals. Announced cost increases for PCs and components could negatively impact purchasing plans in the second half of the year, potentially curbing what would otherwise be a natural rush to upgrade before the Windows 10 cutoff.
• Policy and Trade Uncertainty: Fluctuations in tariffs, influenced by changing US political strategies, create additional ambiguity for international supply chains. Any sudden moves—such as new import duties—could disrupt European purchasing patterns, potentially delaying migrations.
• Software Ecosystem Uncertainty: Many business-critical applications have yet to be fully optimized or certified for Windows 11, particularly in vertical markets like healthcare, finance, and manufacturing. The risk of compatibility woes makes IT departments understandably hesitant.
• Security and Lifecycle Concerns: While Microsoft offers extended support (at a price), the looming withdrawal of standard patches for Windows 10 poses a real risk. Any organizations slow to migrate could find themselves vulnerable to emerging threats—a dynamic not lost on IT leaders, but one that must be balanced against the costs and challenges of migration.

Critical Analysis: The Double-Edged Sword of Forced Migration​

From a critical standpoint, the current strategy presents both strengths and potential pitfalls.

Strengths​

• Security Modernization: Windows 11’s hardware requirements, from TPM 2.0 to Secure Boot, undeniably strengthen the baseline security posture of modern enterprises. This could mitigate risks from ransomware and rootkit attacks, which have surged in recent years.
• Operational Stability: By nudging organizations towards newer hardware, Microsoft ensures a common set of standards—making it easier (at least in theory) to deliver patches, feature updates, and technical support.
• Ecosystem Innovation: The push for AI-ready devices aligns with broader trends in productivity and automation. Early adopters may find tangible gains from new capabilities as the software ecosystem matures.

Risks​

• Environmental Impact: Forced hardware refreshes, while good for PC makers’ bottom lines, generate substantial e-waste. Many of the retired PCs are still operational but do not meet the new OS’s requirements. Unless robust recycling and donation programs are in place, this migration risks amplifying the ecological footprint of enterprise IT.
• Economic Disparity: Smaller businesses and organizations in lower-income regions may struggle to meet the upgrade costs, potentially widening the digital divide. While multinational corporations can absorb hardware refresh costs, SMEs face real pain points.
• User Dissatisfaction and Migration Fatigue: The lack of excitement around Windows 11 is well-documented. Many users—especially those who view Windows 10 as “good enough”—are upgrading due to necessity, not enthusiasm. This kind of coerced migration can undermine goodwill and dampen engagement with the new platform’s features.
• Slower Innovation Cycle for AI PCs: Without a compelling reason to adopt AI PCs, the pace of enterprise innovation may stall. If software makers don’t catch up with “killer apps” for AI hardware, hardware sales could lag, blunting momentum for the next technological leap.

Practical Guidance: What Enterprises Need to Know Now​

For organizations facing the migration imperative, several practical steps can smooth the transition:

Inventory and Assessment​

• Assess Current Hardware: Identify which desktops and notebooks meet Windows 11’s minimum requirements. Check for supported CPUs, TPM 2.0, Secure Boot capability, and other essentials via Microsoft’s PC Health Check tool or similar enterprise management tools.
• Prioritize High-Risk Devices: Systems in frontline roles (finance, HR, compliance, etc.) with end-of-life OS versions should be migrated first to minimize exposure.

Cost Management​

• Plan for Staged Migration: Spread out hardware purchases and upgrades to manage budget impact. Consider leasing or hardware-as-a-service agreements for maximum flexibility.
• Explore Refurbished and Certified Pre-Owned Options: These may offer a cost-effective bridge for organizations struggling to replace large numbers of out-of-date PCs at once.

Software Compatibility​

• Test Key Applications: Ensure mission-critical software is certified for Windows 11. Engage with vendors early to identify any blockers or required patches.
• Pilot and Train: Deploy Windows 11 in controlled environments first and provide ample user training to minimize disruption and resistance.

Security and Compliance​

• Leverage New Security Features: Take advantage of hardware-level security built into modern systems. Implement BitLocker, Windows Hello, and virtualization-based security where possible.
• Evaluate Extended Support: For systems that cannot be upgraded in time, consider Microsoft’s paid extended support as a short-term stopgap, but plan for a full migration as soon as feasible.

The Future Outlook: Desktops Hold The Fort, But for How Long?​

With just months left before Windows 10’s support sunset, it’s clear that desktops—notebooks and AI PCs—are currently carrying much of the migration load. However, this trend may prove temporary. As application ecosystems improve and cost barriers ease, AI-enhanced devices are likely to gain traction. Vendors continue to invest heavily in AI PC marketing and R&D, betting that future waves of software will unlock their latent potential.
Yet, in 2025’s reality, CIOs and IT managers are focused on pragmatic needs: security, compatibility, and minimizing disruption. For all the marketing attention lavished on next-generation laptops, it is the humble desktop—familiar, stable, and newly revitalized—that anchors the Windows 11 migration for many organizations.
The result is a migration process more complex, more incremental, and more contingent on economic conditions than prior OS transitions. The “rush” to Windows 11 is a measured one, with organizations looking to balance long-term value against short-term risk and cost.

Conclusion: Opportunity, Caution, and Lessons for the Next Migration​

The story of Windows 11 migration thus far is emblematic of a broader truth in enterprise IT: technological progress, while inevitable, is neither smooth nor uniform. External pressures—from expiring support to shifting economic winds and unpredictable trade policies—shape adoption patterns as much as technological innovation itself.
Organizations that adopt a clear-eyed, strategic approach—prioritizing risk management, user engagement, and phased investment—will weather this transition most effectively. Those who rely solely on deadlines or vendor hype may find themselves exposed, either in terms of cost or cyber risk.
As Microsoft, vendors, and customers navigate the intricacies of this migration, one lesson is abundantly clear: the classic desktop may be entering a twilight period, but it isn’t going quietly. Instead, it remains a linchpin—proving that, sometimes, what’s old can be made new again, at least for one more upgrade cycle.
And in the background, the future is quietly assembling itself in the form of AI PCs and more adaptive, intelligent endpoints. Their day may yet come—but only once the everyday, workhorse tasks of today's organizations are safely carried into Windows 11’s embrace.

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Source: theregister.com Windows 11 migration heats up... on desktops