US PC shipments cooled in Q2 2025 as channel inventories were worked through, but a steady commercial refresh — driven by the looming Windows 10 end‑of‑support and selective AI procurement — softened the blow and left OEM strategies, margins and channel execution in sharper focus. (canalys.com)
The headline number circulating from market coverage is that U.S. desktop and notebook shipments (excluding tablets) totaled about 18.6 million units in Q2 2025, down roughly 1.4% year‑on‑year, a figure reported in recent industry coverage as Canalys’ U.S. regional datapoint.
At the same time, global sell‑in was stronger: Canalys reported 67.6 million worldwide PC shipments in Q2 2025, up about 7.4% year‑on‑year — a recovery led by commercial deployments ahead of Microsoft’s Windows 10 end‑of‑support deadline. (canalys.com)
Those two data points set the scene for a split market: commercial demand (enterprises, government, education and mid‑market fleets) is supporting growth, while consumer spending remains cautious and uneven. This bifurcation is turning what could have been a sharp decline into a more manageable inventory‑clearance quarter for vendors and channels. (canalys.com)
The net effect: a quarter that looks weak on a year‑over‑year basis in the U.S. as channels digest stock, while global sell‑in remains supported by commercial procurement programs.
That deadline creates an elevated commercial refresh window: fleets that lack Windows 11 compatibility or that prefer to minimize security exposure will either buy new hardware or invest in ESU and migration services. The commercial sector’s willingness to prioritize supported OSes and manageability explains the quarter’s uplift in enterprise purchases even as consumers stayed cautious. (canalys.com)
In plain terms: AI capability is a procurement variable, not yet a universal replacement reason. IT buyers increasingly evaluate NPUs, on‑device privacy features and TCO implications, but many decisions remain driven by standard factors — manageability, security posture, price and lifecycle costs.
Key scenarios to watch:
At the same time, AI features have become a differentiator that justifies higher ASPs for some buyers and supports vendor margin strategies. The conversion of AI from buzzword to measurable enterprise value depends on credible integrations, manageability and demonstrable ROI — not simply marketing claims about NPUs or “AI‑capable” badges. (gallup.com)
Q2 2025 was not a market collapse — it was a market in transition: channels worked off the front‑loaded inventory, enterprises pressed purchases to meet a fixed Windows 10 deadline, and vendors accelerated efforts to productize AI at the endpoint level. For buyers and channel partners the immediate task is practical: map compatibility and lifecycle needs, validate AI ROI in production terms, and lock down trade‑in and lifecycle support to avoid being caught in the next timing mismatch. The market’s recovery will be real, but measured: opportunity exists for those who align procurement discipline with clear, measurable use cases rather than marketing‑led promises.
Source: TechRadar Shipments of PCs in the US fell in Q2 2025, but commercial growth cushioned the decline
Background
The headline number circulating from market coverage is that U.S. desktop and notebook shipments (excluding tablets) totaled about 18.6 million units in Q2 2025, down roughly 1.4% year‑on‑year, a figure reported in recent industry coverage as Canalys’ U.S. regional datapoint.At the same time, global sell‑in was stronger: Canalys reported 67.6 million worldwide PC shipments in Q2 2025, up about 7.4% year‑on‑year — a recovery led by commercial deployments ahead of Microsoft’s Windows 10 end‑of‑support deadline. (canalys.com)
Those two data points set the scene for a split market: commercial demand (enterprises, government, education and mid‑market fleets) is supporting growth, while consumer spending remains cautious and uneven. This bifurcation is turning what could have been a sharp decline into a more manageable inventory‑clearance quarter for vendors and channels. (canalys.com)
Market snapshot: numbers and what they mean
The raw figures
- Reported U.S. shipments (Q2 2025, desktops + notebooks, excluding tablets): ≈18.6M units; −1.4% YoY as published in market coverage.
- Global PC shipments (Q2 2025): 67.6M units; +7.4% YoY per Canalys’ Q2 global release. (canalys.com)
Vendor performance: winners and laggards
Coverage of the quarter highlights differing vendor outcomes in the U.S.:- Apple was the fastest growing major vendor in the U.S. in the quarter (reported at roughly +15.5% YoY in U.S. desktop/notebook shipments in Q2).
- Lenovo recorded modest U.S. growth (~+5.1% YoY in the U.S figure cited in channel reporting).
- HP and Dell showed declines in the U.S. quarter (reported near −4.8% and −3.5% respectively), while Acer fell more sharply (~−10.5%).
Why shipments fell in the US while the commercial sector grew
1) Inventory front‑loading and tariff risk
Early‑2025 sell‑in was unusually large as vendors and channel partners front‑loaded shipments to mitigate exposure to potential tariffs and shifting trade rules. That build created a short‑term buffer — pushing shipments into Q1 and leaving Q2 to work through excess inventory. Multiple industry commentaries and earnings calls from distributors corroborated this dynamic. (reuters.com)The net effect: a quarter that looks weak on a year‑over‑year basis in the U.S. as channels digest stock, while global sell‑in remains supported by commercial procurement programs.
2) Windows 10 end of support — a concentrated commercial driver
Microsoft’s official lifecycle notices put Windows 10 end of support on October 14, 2025, a hard date that converts security/compliance risk into a procurement trigger for many IT organizations. Microsoft explicitly advises upgrades to Windows 11 or enrollment in Extended Security Updates (ESU) for devices that cannot move to Windows 11. (support.microsoft.com)That deadline creates an elevated commercial refresh window: fleets that lack Windows 11 compatibility or that prefer to minimize security exposure will either buy new hardware or invest in ESU and migration services. The commercial sector’s willingness to prioritize supported OSes and manageability explains the quarter’s uplift in enterprise purchases even as consumers stayed cautious. (canalys.com)
3) Consumer caution & macro pressure
Persistent inflation, wage dynamics and a cautious consumer wallet have reduced demand for discretionary, premium electronics. Coverage from channels and OEM results shows consumers delaying upgrades unless devices fail or performance drops precipitously. That contrast — urgent enterprise refresh vs discretionary consumer delay — produced the mixed shipment picture in the U.S. market.AI as an upgrade driver: reality versus rhetoric
AI is now an explicit part of vendor messaging and RFP checklists, but the market signal is nuanced.The claim and the data
- Market analysts and OEMs are pushing “AI‑capable” PC narratives (NPUs, Copilot+ SKUs, M‑series devices with on‑device neural engines). Canonical definitions vary, but the industry is aligning around NPUs or integrated silicon that supports local inference as a baseline for the label. (canalys.com)
- Industry surveys and Canalys commentary cite rapid growth in business AI experimentation. Canalys’ analysts told reporters that business adoption has accelerated and that many organizations are actively piloting or planning AI projects; some quotes suggest usage metrics have increased sharply in recent years.
- Independent government and polling data show growth, but starting points were small. The U.S. Census Business Trends and Outlook Survey documented that the share of businesses using AI to produce goods and services was in single‑digit percentages (rising from the low single digits in 2023 toward larger numbers), while Gallup data show employee AI use at work nearly doubled in two years — a strong behavioral signal that AI tools are entering workflows. (census.gov) (gallup.com)
The disconnect: pilots, ROI and "pilot purgatory"
Despite rising adoption metrics, vendors are encountering a “pilot purgatory” problem: enterprises run proof‑of‑concepts and pilots but balk at broad rollouts when integration costs, security constraints, model management and change management become significant. Canalys’ analysts warn that while adoption has accelerated, the rate of conversion from pilot to integrated, high‑value usage is slowing for large organizations as practical integration challenges surface.In plain terms: AI capability is a procurement variable, not yet a universal replacement reason. IT buyers increasingly evaluate NPUs, on‑device privacy features and TCO implications, but many decisions remain driven by standard factors — manageability, security posture, price and lifecycle costs.
Vendor strategies: premiumization, software plays, and supply‑chain shifts
Premiumization and ASP uplift
Several OEMs report a deliberate move to higher‑configured, AI‑capable SKUs that carry price premiums. HP, Dell and others are positioning Copilot+ or “AI PC” tiers at higher ASPs; HP has publicly stated AI‑enabled SKUs commanded a mid‑single to double‑digit uplift in ASP in recent quarters. This mix shift can improve margins even without dramatic unit growth.Software and IP acquisitions
OEMs are buying or building software IP to claim differentiation — either through on‑device AI, management suites, or value‑added services. These moves are strategically sensible: hardware alone is easy to commoditize, so owning software and service hooks helps preserve recurring revenue and stronger margins. The caveat: integration is hard and timeline‑heavy, as prior acquisitions and product launches have shown.Nearshoring to avoid tariffs
To reduce tariff exposure, many vendors shifted North America‑bound manufacturing and assembly to Southeast Asia, Mexico and limited U.S. facilities. That re‑routing reduces short‑term tariff risk but introduces transition costs and operational execution risk — a trade‑off that shaped vendor inventory decisions earlier in 2025.Forecasts and calendar effects: what to expect into 2026
Analysts now generally project modest growth in 2025 and 2026 (roughly 3% annually) for PC shipments as the Windows refresh and AI premiumization unfold across a stretched calendar rather than a single spike. Channel partners and OEM management commentary anticipate that a material portion of the upgrade cycle will carry into 2026 rather than being completed before October 14, 2025. (canalys.com)Key scenarios to watch:
- Front‑loaded refresh now, post‑deadline lull: Many upgrades happen in late 2025 and early 2026, followed by a potential drop in replacement cycles unless new drivers (broader AI apps, subscription services) sustain demand.
- Sustained premiumization: AI‑capable SKUs hold price premiums and expand ASP, allowing vendors to grow revenue and margins despite slow unit growth. Execution here hinges on software integration and NPU supply.
- Supply shock or component re‑pricing: NPU availability, GPU allocations and input‑cost volatility could constrain supply for premium SKUs or compress margins if vendors buy scarce silicon at elevated prices.
Risks and the credibility gaps
While the headline narrative — Windows EOL drives commercial refresh and AI nudges premiumization — is consistent across reporting, several claims deserve caution:- The precise U.S. figure of 18.6M units (Q2 2025) is reported through industry press coverage referencing Canalys; however, regional methodology differences and sell‑in vs sell‑through distinctions can produce divergent numbers across trackers. Treat single‑point regional figures as directional unless sourced directly from the research provider’s published regional dataset. (canalys.com)
- Vendor growth rates for the U.S. market vary by tracker. For example, Canalys’ global dataset shows Apple with very strong global growth, while regional breakouts can show different percentages — methodology (sell‑in to channel partners vs. sell‑through to consumers) matters. Procurement teams should request underlying datasets if precise market share reconciliation is material to planning. (canalys.com)
- AI adoption statistics are growing from small bases. Government surveys (BTOS) measured single‑digit business adoption early on, while employee‑level polls (Gallup) show more rapid doubling in reported usage — these are complementary but not identical metrics, so equating them without caveats overstates penetration. (census.gov)
What IT buyers and channel partners should do next
The remainder of 2025 into 2026 is a migration window; practical, tactical actions matter more than vendor narratives. Recommended priorities:- Inventory and timeline triage. Assess the installed base for Windows 11 eligibility, warranty lifecycle and TCO — segment devices into immediate‑replace, delayed‑replace (ESU candidate) and refresh‑later cohorts.
- Validate AI worth‑case. For teams considering AI‑capable endpoints, run short, targeted pilots tied to measurable outcomes (time saved, accuracy improvements, reduced cloud costs), and include integration, security and model‑ops budget in ROI models.
- Negotiate trade‑in and ITAD terms. Use trade‑in to manage capex and carbon footprint; insist on certified IT asset disposition and data‑sanitization commitments.
- Lock in service and lifecycle SLAs. When buying premium AI SKUs or Copilot+ tiers, ensure firmware update cadence, manageability integrations and device‑level security controls are contractual.
- Diversify procurement channels. Given supply re‑routing and tariff uncertainty, cultivate multiple supply sources and validate lead times for critical SKUs, especially those with NPUs or specialized silicon.
The strategic takeaway: modest recovery, concentrated opportunity
Q2 2025’s numbers tell a more nuanced story than a simple “market fell” headline. Globally, PC shipments recovered as commercial refreshes accelerated and vendors pushed AI messaging; regionally — especially in the U.S. consumer space — caution and inventory digestion produced softness. The Windows 10 end‑of‑support on October 14, 2025 is an incontrovertible calendar anchor that will continue to shape procurement timelines and provide a predictable tailwind for commercial PCs. (support.microsoft.com)At the same time, AI features have become a differentiator that justifies higher ASPs for some buyers and supports vendor margin strategies. The conversion of AI from buzzword to measurable enterprise value depends on credible integrations, manageability and demonstrable ROI — not simply marketing claims about NPUs or “AI‑capable” badges. (gallup.com)
Final assessment: strengths, risks and what to watch
Strengths
- Clear demand runway from an enforced OS lifecycle event that motivates procurement and compliance upgrades. (support.microsoft.com)
- Vendor product mix moves toward higher‑value configurations and integrated software, which can raise ASPs and margins if executed well.
- Growing AI tool use in the workplace, indicating that endpoints with on‑device capabilities have a credible long‑term market. (gallup.com)
Risks
- Post‑refresh cliff: a concentrated upgrade window risks an uneven 2026 unless new drivers sustain demand.
- Pilot to production gap: many AI projects stall during integration, undermining immediate justification for mass endpoint upgrades.
- Supply and tariff exposure: nearshoring reduces some tariff risk but introduces transition and quality variability costs that can stress margins and delivery.
What to watch next (practical indicators)
- OEM and distributor channel fill rates and trade‑in volumes (near‑term inventory signal).
- Mix of AI‑capable SKUs as a percentage of shipments and reported ASP trends (monetization signal).
- BTOS / Gallup / other independent survey cycles for real‑world AI usage and conversion rates from pilot to scaled deployments. (census.gov)
Q2 2025 was not a market collapse — it was a market in transition: channels worked off the front‑loaded inventory, enterprises pressed purchases to meet a fixed Windows 10 deadline, and vendors accelerated efforts to productize AI at the endpoint level. For buyers and channel partners the immediate task is practical: map compatibility and lifecycle needs, validate AI ROI in production terms, and lock down trade‑in and lifecycle support to avoid being caught in the next timing mismatch. The market’s recovery will be real, but measured: opportunity exists for those who align procurement discipline with clear, measurable use cases rather than marketing‑led promises.
Source: TechRadar Shipments of PCs in the US fell in Q2 2025, but commercial growth cushioned the decline
