The startling headline — that Windows 10’s end-of-support could create roughly £1.8 billion of recoverable metals in the UK alone — is both eye-catching and accurate as a headline-sized calculation, but it is not a forecast. The figure emerges from a chain of assumptions (global device counts, regional market share, device mix, average weights, recovery rates and metal prices) that are plausible but highly sensitive; treated carefully, the claim is a useful alarm bell about the scale of potential e‑waste, not a precise ledger of recoverable profit.
Microsoft has fixed a clear lifecycle: free mainstream security updates for Windows 10 end on 14 October 2025, and consumers can access a one‑year security bridge (Extended Security Updates, ESU) that runs through 13 October 2026 under defined enrollment rules. The company documents the ESU options — free enrollment paths tied to a Microsoft Account and settings sync, a Microsoft Rewards redemption, or a one‑time paid enrollment — and stresses ESU is a temporary, security‑only bridge rather than a long‑term servicing solution.
That vendor deadline collides with the reality that a very large number of Windows 10 devices will not meet Windows 11’s hardware gates (TPM 2.0, secure boot/UEFI, and certain CPU family requirements). Multiple industry trackers and advocacy groups have pointed to a figure on the order of hundreds of millions of devices worldwide that are effectively “left behind” by Windows 11 compatibility. Broad estimates that have entered public discussion cluster around ~400 million devices — again, an extrapolation from inventory panels and market shares rather than a literal counted inventory.
Enter BusinessWaste.co.uk: its WEEE experts modelled the UK share of a hypothetical global pool of 400 million incompatible devices, applied a 3.6% UK share of global PCs, assumed a device mix of 70% laptops and 30% desktops, used average device weights, and applied metal‑recovery rates drawn from recycler data (cited to E‑Parisaraa). Using a snapshot of precious‑metal prices, they converted recoverable tonnes into a market value and reported approximately £1.8 billion in recoverable metals — dominated by gold, with copper and silver making up the rest.
The Windows 10 end‑of‑support date crystallizes a complex set of trade‑offs: security, cost, sustainability and equity. The BusinessWaste headline — “£1.8bn in recoverable metals” — is a useful prism for thinking about scale and opportunity, but it is not an accounting ledger. What matters now is the operational response: inventory, protect, prioritize reuse, and route retired hardware through certified refurbishers and recyclers so that the potential value in those machines benefits the circular economy rather than becoming a missed opportunity in a landfill.
Source: theregister.com Windows 10 EOL could generate £1.8B of e-waste in UK alone
Background / Overview
Microsoft has fixed a clear lifecycle: free mainstream security updates for Windows 10 end on 14 October 2025, and consumers can access a one‑year security bridge (Extended Security Updates, ESU) that runs through 13 October 2026 under defined enrollment rules. The company documents the ESU options — free enrollment paths tied to a Microsoft Account and settings sync, a Microsoft Rewards redemption, or a one‑time paid enrollment — and stresses ESU is a temporary, security‑only bridge rather than a long‑term servicing solution. That vendor deadline collides with the reality that a very large number of Windows 10 devices will not meet Windows 11’s hardware gates (TPM 2.0, secure boot/UEFI, and certain CPU family requirements). Multiple industry trackers and advocacy groups have pointed to a figure on the order of hundreds of millions of devices worldwide that are effectively “left behind” by Windows 11 compatibility. Broad estimates that have entered public discussion cluster around ~400 million devices — again, an extrapolation from inventory panels and market shares rather than a literal counted inventory.
Enter BusinessWaste.co.uk: its WEEE experts modelled the UK share of a hypothetical global pool of 400 million incompatible devices, applied a 3.6% UK share of global PCs, assumed a device mix of 70% laptops and 30% desktops, used average device weights, and applied metal‑recovery rates drawn from recycler data (cited to E‑Parisaraa). Using a snapshot of precious‑metal prices, they converted recoverable tonnes into a market value and reported approximately £1.8 billion in recoverable metals — dominated by gold, with copper and silver making up the rest.
The math behind the £1.8 billion claim (what BusinessWaste did, step by step)
Below is a plain‑English walk‑through of the calculation BusinessWaste published so readers can see how a big headline number is assembled and where the sensitivity lives.- Step 1 — global “left‑behind” devices: BusinessWaste started with a working estimate of 400 million devices that cannot upgrade to Windows 11. This number has circulated in media and advocacy reporting and is an extrapolation from inventory snapshots and vendor telemetry.
- Step 2 — UK share: they applied a UK share of the global PC market of 3.6%, yielding 14.4 million potentially impacted devices in the UK (400m × 3.6% = 14.4m).
- Step 3 — device mix & weights: BusinessWaste assumed 70% laptops (average ~1.5 kg each) and 30% desktops (average ~12 kg each) to turn device counts into total tonnage of redundant machines. That produced roughly 12.8 million kilograms (12,805,100 kg) of recoverable metals across the UK set.
- Step 4 — recoverable metal rates: they applied recovery yields cited from recycler E‑Parisaraa (the figures BusinessWaste used include per‑ton yields such as ~0.28 kg gold and ~190.5 kg copper per tonne of shredded WEEE material, among other numbers). Those recovery rates represent processed output under industrial urban‑mining methods and are specific to the types of PC boards and cabling BusinessWaste assumed.
- Step 5 — price snapshot: BusinessWaste converted the estimated kilograms into troy ounces (for gold and silver) and multiplied by a metal price snapshot (they cite Kitco for prices). This step produced an approximate £1.677 billion attributable to gold, ~£98.8 million for copper and ~£32.8 million for silver, and a summed headline near £1.809 billion. Commodity prices were the final multiplier.
How reliable is that £1.8bn estimate? (critical analysis)
The figure is an instructive “what‑if” — but not a forecast. Here is what strengthens the claim and where it is weak.What makes the headline plausible
- The basic physical reality is indisputable: modern PCs contain gold, silver, copper and other valuable elements in circuit boards, connectors and cabling. Recoverable quantities per tonne are non‑zero and recycling can concentrate value. E‑waste is an urban‑mining resource, and multiple recycler reports and academic reviews confirm that printed circuit boards are especially gold‑rich on a per‑ton basis compared with mined ore.
- Several independent industry observers and advocacy groups all point to a very large installed base of Windows 10 machines that will face choices at EOL — upgrade, pay for ESU, migrate to an alternative OS, or replace hardware. Those systemic drivers make large‑scale reuse, resale, or recycling outcomes plausible.
Key weaknesses and sources of error
- Device‑count uncertainty: the 400 million figure is an estimate derived from inventory panels and market extrapolations; different trackers and vendors produce materially different counts. Small changes in that input produce large swings in the final value.
- Regional share is not uniform: applying a global market share to the UK (3.6%) ignores regional variations in device age, enterprise fleets, and replacement behaviour. The UK might have a younger or older installed base than the global average; that matters for weights and recovery potential.
- Device mix and average weights: BusinessWaste’s 70/30 laptop/desktop split and per‑device weights are reasonable but not universally representative. If the true laptop share is higher (or if laptops average different weights), total tonnage and metal yields change.
- Recovery rates are conditional: the cited E‑Parisaraa yields reflect industrial processing of certain waste streams (shredded boards, concentrated fractions). Real‑world yields vary with preprocessing, contamination, dismantling quality and the composition of the specific devices delivered to recyclers. Informal recycling lowers yield and increases losses and environmental harm.
- Price volatility: precious‑metal pricing moves daily. The BusinessWaste valuation used a Kitco snapshot; a 10% move in the gold price changes the headline by hundreds of millions of pounds. Using current market prices (gold ≈ US$4,000/oz on the date examined), the same physical metal mass lines up with the BusinessWaste range — but that’s a point‑in‑time observation, not a constant.
- Behavioral and policy responses: uptake of Microsoft’s ESU, trade‑in/refurbish programmes, charity refurbishing, and market prices for refurbished devices will all reduce the volume actually entering the recycling stream on day one and over time. BusinessWaste acknowledges that ESU uptake will “stagger” WEEE generation rather than eliminate it, but the claim does not factor in detailed adoption curves.
Environmental and security trade‑offs: why this matters beyond the headline
- E‑waste scale: if even a modest fraction of tens of millions of machines is replaced rapidly, the volume of WEEE will be meaningful for waste‑management infrastructure and could stress domestic collection, IT asset disposal (ITAD) capacity and international downstream flows. That creates both environmental and health risks when devices are mishandled.
- Resource opportunity vs. loss: the “value” headline (gold + copper + silver) shows that these machines are a resource if properly processed — but if devices are dumped, those metals remain in the ground (or in toxic waste piles) rather than being urban‑mined into new products. That’s a lost circular‑economy opportunity.
- Security risk from unsupported systems: running an unpatched OS is a practical security hazard. Organizations and households that do not upgrade or enroll in ESU expose themselves to increasing risk from vulnerabilities discovered after the EOL date. In regulated industries or critical infrastructure, that can create compliance and liability issues.
- Equity and digital inclusion: hardware gates that require newer TPM/CPU features disproportionately affect budget‑constrained users, public institutions (like schools) and underfunded public services. The fiscal burden to replace machines or pay for ESU is not trivial at scale. Campaigners and consumer advocates have framed this as a social and environmental justice concern.
Practical options for minimizing harm (what to do now)
Every actor has choices. Below are pragmatic, prioritized steps for households, small businesses and IT teams that reduce security exposure and limit environmental harm.For households and small businesses
- Inventory: record model, CPU, RAM, storage, TPM presence and Windows build. The PC Health Check tool or OEM upgrade checks are quick first steps.
- Short bridge: if you cannot migrate immediately and the device is critical, enroll eligible machines in consumer ESU (free if you enable settings sync for a Microsoft account, redeem Rewards, or make the one‑time paid enrollment). ESU is an explicit one‑year bridge — not a long‑term fix.
- Refurbish before you replace: consider using ChromeOS Flex, a lightweight Linux distribution, or donating to charities that refurbish devices; many older laptops are perfectly serviceable for web, mail and document work after an OS refresh. ChromeOS Flex and common Linux distros are low‑cost, supported paths for many users.
- Responsible disposal: do not dump electronics. Use retailer take‑back, municipal WEEE collection, or certified ITAD/refurbishers that can erase data and recover materials properly. BusinessWaste and WEEE regulations in the UK make improper disposal illegal; certified recyclers can provide duty‑of‑care paperwork.
For IT managers and enterprises
- Treat ESU as a bridge only: plan hardware refreshes and application testing against Windows 11 (or VDI/cloud alternatives) within the ESU window to avoid perpetual subscription costs.
- Security compensations for hold‑overs: isolate legacy hosts, enforce strict access controls, deploy EDR, and harden backup strategies until systems are migrated. These are stop‑gap mitigations, not substitutes for patches.
- Contracted ITAD: establish certified ITAD relationships before decommissioning cycles accelerate. Certified refurbishers and recyclers can maximize reuse and metal recovery while protecting data and complying with WEEE rules.
Policy, market and industry implications
- Regulatory scrutiny is likely: consumer groups and environmental campaigners have already asked regulators to consider minimum software support durations and trade‑in/refurbish obligations to avoid avoidable e‑waste. That pressure could prompt policy responses around lifecycle transparency, right‑to‑repair and minimum security support windows.
- Secondary markets and refurbishment will matter: large volumes of decommissioned machines will test the capacity of the refurbished‑device market. If refurbishers scale, much of the “value” in raw materials can be preserved into secondary lives instead of being melted down immediately. That’s both economically and environmentally preferable.
- Corporate responsibility: OEMs and retailers can blunt the e‑waste spike by offering meaningful trade‑in credits, low‑cost upgrade kits where feasible (for desktops), and regionally accessible recycling and refurbishment programs. These interventions reduce consumer cost and channel devices toward reuse rather than disposal.
What the numbers do — and do not — show (final assessment)
- Do: the BusinessWaste calculation shows that a mountain of material value exists inside redundant PCs, and that scale should change behaviour: plan transitions, prioritize reuse, expand certified refurbishment, and scale recycling infrastructure. The arithmetic behind the £1.8bn headline is plausible for the set of assumptions BusinessWaste used.
- Do not: interpret the figure as a guaranteed, immediate windfall or as a literal expectation that £1.8bn will sit in recycler accounts next month. The valuation assumes a specific device count, a regional allocation, a static recovery yield and one day’s metal prices. Small shifts in any input produce large output swings. Real‑world outcomes will be spread over years and shaped by ESU uptake, refurbishment flows, trade‑in programmes and commodity price volatility.
Short checklist for WindowsForum readers (actionable, copyable)
- Inventory now: record models, TPM status, and Windows build. Use OEM tools and PC Health Check.
- Back up and image: create a tested restore plan before any OS migration.
- Enroll critical household machines in ESU if needed — don’t rely on it longer than the 12‑month consumer window.
- Consider ChromeOS Flex or Linux for older laptops to extend life affordably.
- Arrange certified recycling or ITAD for devices you will retire; ask for a duty‑of‑care certificate.
The Windows 10 end‑of‑support date crystallizes a complex set of trade‑offs: security, cost, sustainability and equity. The BusinessWaste headline — “£1.8bn in recoverable metals” — is a useful prism for thinking about scale and opportunity, but it is not an accounting ledger. What matters now is the operational response: inventory, protect, prioritize reuse, and route retired hardware through certified refurbishers and recyclers so that the potential value in those machines benefits the circular economy rather than becoming a missed opportunity in a landfill.
Source: theregister.com Windows 10 EOL could generate £1.8B of e-waste in UK alone
