The desktop war over what happens to millions of older Windows PCs after October’s Windows 10 end‑of‑support deadline has produced a surprising — if predictable — pattern: rather than switching en masse to Linux, many owners of unsupported machines appear to be following the route Microsoft and its hardware partners prefer — buying new Windows 11 machines or building fresh Windows 11 rigs. That conclusion is built on a mix of industry telemetry, market research from Jon Peddie Research, and the public campaigns from Linux communities and right‑to‑repair groups urging otherwise. The result is a high‑stakes policy and consumer debate about security, e‑waste, vendor influence, and what “choice” really means when an OS sunset collides with strict hardware gatekeeping. (neowin.net)
Microsoft has set a hard end‑of‑support date for Windows 10: after October 14, 2025 the company will stop providing regular security updates and technical support for that OS. For many users the default upgrade path is Windows 11, but Windows 11’s official hardware requirements — TPM 2.0, UEFI Secure Boot, and a limited list of supported CPUs — leave a substantial installed base unable to upgrade without replacing major components or buying new machines. That reality has spawned three main responses from the broader ecosystem:
This is not an either/or story where one path will completely dominate in the near term. Expect continued plurality: some users will adopt Linux to extend device life and control costs; gamers and enterprises with Windows dependencies will prefer new Windows 11 hardware; and others will use temporary bridges while planning long‑term strategies. The essential public policy question — whether manufacturers and platform owners should be allowed to push large refresh cycles without broader mitigation for e‑waste and consumer protection — remains unresolved and will shape how this transition looks in two to five years.
For anyone facing the October 14 deadline, the practical advice is straightforward: back up, test alternatives, and make a plan now rather than waiting until security patches stop. The tech ecosystem will continue to offer options, but the earlier you evaluate them, the smoother the transition will be — whichever path you choose. (endof10.org)
Source: Neowin 2025 year of Linux? Data suggests unsupported Windows 11 users overwhelmingly choosing one
Microsoft has set a hard end‑of‑support date for Windows 10: after October 14, 2025 the company will stop providing regular security updates and technical support for that OS. For many users the default upgrade path is Windows 11, but Windows 11’s official hardware requirements — TPM 2.0, UEFI Secure Boot, and a limited list of supported CPUs — leave a substantial installed base unable to upgrade without replacing major components or buying new machines. That reality has spawned three main responses from the broader ecosystem:- Microsoft and OEM partners pushing PC refresh cycles (new laptops and prebuilt desktops) and enterprise migration plans.
- Community and open‑source campaigns — notably the End of 10 initiative, KDE‑backed outreach, and The Restart Project’s “End of Windows 10 toolkit” — promoting Linux as a low‑cost, lower‑waste alternative and offering hands‑on migration help. (endof10.org)
- Market responses tracked by independent research firms that show measurable upticks in some hardware segments, especially components and gaming systems. Jon Peddie Research’s analyses of GPU and PC hardware trends are central to that line of evidence. (jonpeddie.com)
Why the debate matters
The decisions millions of users make now are not just technical; they’re economic, environmental, and political.- Security: running an unsupported OS increases exposure to zero‑day vulnerabilities, compatibility mismatches with newer browsers and security tools, and potential regulatory/compliance issues for businesses. Microsoft has offered a one‑year consumer Extended Security Update (ESU) bridge in prior transitions, but that’s explicitly temporary and often tied to enrollment or additional costs.
- Cost: a new Windows 11‑capable PC can cost hundreds to thousands of dollars. For price‑sensitive households, schools, and NGOs, those costs are material. Linux distributions and the open‑source app stack are free to install and maintain — but migration still requires personnel time and testing.
- Sustainability and e‑waste: replacing otherwise functional hardware contributes to electronic waste and the upstream emissions of manufacture, logistics, and disposal. The End of 10 campaign and repair activists highlight the environmental cost of large‑scale refreshes and advocate for installing Linux on viable older machines. (endof10.org)
What the data shows (and what it doesn’t)
Strong signals that many users are buying new Windows 11 systems
Industry trackers and research firms show meaningful increases in component shipments and prebuilt system sales in the quarters surrounding the Windows 10 EOS narrative.- Jon Peddie Research (JPR), which tracks GPU and PC hardware shipments and runs a PC Gaming Hardware Market Study, reported that GPU and CPU shipments rose in several quarters across 2024–2025 and that demand for gaming‑class hardware has strengthened. JPR’s market commentary highlights purchasing intent among gamers and notes that consumers are prepared to buy new systems where needed. (jonpeddie.com)
- Industry coverage and vendor channels corroborate higher prebuilt sales and visible retail promotions for Windows 11‑ready machines during 2024–2025; mainstream outlets and advisory pieces from enterprise IT vendors also document enterprises and MSPs executing staged refresh programs. These trade press accounts align with JPR’s thesis that a portion of the market is choosing hardware replacement rather than OS migration on older devices. (arstechnica.com)
Linux adoption is rising — but not necessarily as a forced mass exodus
Multiple public trackers and coverage show Linux desktop share has been rising from small baselines, and 2025 saw a notable bump in some samples:- StatCounter and reporting outlets documented that Linux had grown to around the 4–5% range in certain markets and measurement windows, and commentators labelled 2025 as a moment when desktop Linux reached meaningful new visibility. That progress is real and backed by multiple independent trackers and articles. (notebookcheck.net)
- Community campaigns (End of 10, KDE, openSUSE, Zorin, The Document Foundation) have actively promoted Linux migration and published toolkits, documentation, and local support networks to help non‑expert users switch. Those organized efforts are substantial and coordinated across many grassroots and project teams. (endof10.org)
Who’s pushing which narrative — and why
Microsoft and OEMs: upgrade and refresh
Microsoft and hardware partners have strong commercial incentives to accelerate hardware refresh cycles. Windows 11 is positioned as a value proposition tied to security features and a new hardware baseline. Industry guidance from Microsoft and OEM marketing has framed the solution to the Windows 10 EOS as buying a new Windows 11 PC. That messaging combined with OEM trade‑in and promotional programs nudges consumers toward replacement rather than migration. Independent IT outlets and business coverage confirm this push. (redmondmag.com)Linux and repair communities: reuse, privacy, and cost savings
Groups like The Restart Project, KDE’s Endof10 campaign, The Document Foundation (LibreOffice), Zorin OS, openSUSE and many distributions position Linux as both an ethical and pragmatic alternative:- They argue Linux extends useful device life, reduces e‑waste, and decouples users from Microsoft’s licensing and cloud‑centric monetization. They provide practical tooling, dual‑boot recommendations, install‑fest networks, and checklists. Their messaging emphasizes privacy, reduced telemetry, and zero licensing fees. (therestartproject.org)
- Distributions like Zorin OS explicitly target Windows 10 users with release notes, compatibility tooling, and workflow migration aids (Zorin OS 17.3, for example, advertised Windows‑friendly features and preinstalled app compatibility helpers). These product plays make switching less intimidating. (blog.zorin.com)
The journalists and analysts: interpreting the crosstalk
Tech press and research firms are doing what markets require: translating data, calling out causal inferences, and testing claims. JPR and others show hardware volume increases; community projects show organized outreach; OS market trackers show Linux growth — but none of these datasets, taken alone, proves a single dominant outcome. The truth is mixed and time‑sensitive.Practical realities for different user groups
Home users with older PCs
- Best short‑term safety: consider the ESU or a cloud/virtual Windows option if critical Windows‑only apps are needed and you cannot migrate immediately. ESU is a one‑year bridge, not a permanent fix — plan accordingly.
- Best long‑term cost/sustainability: if your device hardware is still functional (battery health, storage, display), try a live USB and test a Linux distro (Zorin, Linux Mint, Fedora, Ubuntu variants). Use dual‑boot to preserve options while you learn. Community campaigns and local repair cafes can help. (endof10.org)
- Best if gaming matters: many modern games and GPU/driver stacks still favor Windows, so gamers who need native performance and compatibility are disproportionately likely to buy new Windows 11‑ready hardware. JPR’s gaming hardware models make this tradeoff explicit. (jonpeddie.com)
Small business and nonprofits
- Inventory and test: run compatibility checks for critical in‑house software and printers. If migration is non‑trivial, consider temporary ESU plus a staged plan to modernize hardware or migrate workloads to web/cloud alternatives.
- Consider Linux for secondary machines: cost savings and privacy gains can be substantial, but factor in support resources and staff training.
IT managers and MSPs
- Audit fleet for Windows 11 eligibility using PC Health Check or vendor tools.
- Pilot upgrades on representative machines and build rollback plans.
- Evaluate Linux for specific use cases (kiosks, legacy admin stations, thin clients) and partner with local integrators for desktop support when needed. (biztechmagazine.com)
Strengths and risks of the competing paths
Strengths of switching to Linux (what advocates emphasize)
- Cost: no OS licensing fees and a large ecosystem of free applications (LibreOffice, Firefox, native alternatives).
- Environmental: reuse of functioning hardware reduces e‑waste and the embedded carbon footprint of manufacturing new devices.
- Privacy and control: reduced telemetry and stronger user control over updates and configuration.
- Community support and modern distro usability: many distros now ship with easy installers, GUI management tools, and Windows‑like desktop metaphors to ease the learning curve. (blog.documentfoundation.org)
Risks and caveats for Linux migration
- Application compatibility: proprietary Windows‑only software (some industry‑specific apps, certain games, and niche utilities) may require virtualization (Wine, Proton, virtualization) or replacement, which can introduce cost or workflow disruption.
- Support burden: while community help is abundant, organizations may prefer commercial SLAs; procuring paid Linux support or training can offset initial savings.
- Perception and training: user resistance and retraining costs in workplaces can be non‑negligible.
Strengths of buying new Windows 11 hardware
- Compatibility and continuity: preserves all existing workflows and minimizes retraining.
- Official security updates and vendor support for hardware and drivers.
- Seamless vendor ecosystems for businesses reliant on Microsoft services.
Risks of buying new hardware
- Cost and total cost of ownership: new devices are expensive and often tied to licensing and cloud subscriptions.
- Environmental impact: rapid refreshes increase e‑waste and lifecycle emissions.
- Vendor lock: moving deeper into Microsoft’s hardware + cloud value chain reduces future flexibility.
How to read the numbers responsibly
Two points of methodological caution are worth repeating.- Market research and telemetry are samples with different methodologies. JPR’s hardware shipment numbers, StatCounter’s web‑traffic desktop OS shares, and Steam’s Hardware Survey all measure different slices of the market; triangulation is necessary. Cross‑referencing JPR’s shipment data with web‑tracking and platform surveys reduces the chance of over‑interpreting one dataset. (jonpeddie.com)
- Analyst language (“forced hardware migration,” “over 100 million gamers,” “surge in prebuilt purchases”) often reflects extrapolation from installed bases and purchase intent surveys. These are real signals, but they are not literal census figures. Always treat quoted totals as model‑driven estimates unless a vendor or registry supplies precise counts. (jonpeddie.com)
Concrete steps for readers (short, practical checklist)
- Inventory: run PC Health Check and record Windows 10 version (22H2 recommended), CPU generation, presence of TPM 2.0, and firmware (UEFI vs legacy).
- Backup: create two independent backups (external drive + cloud) before making changes.
- Test: boot a Linux live USB (Zorin, Mint, Ubuntu) and test hardware compatibility and your critical apps.
- Pilot: if managing multiple devices, pilot any transition on one machine or a small user group first.
- Choose: decide between upgrade to Windows 11 (if eligible), ESU bridge (if temporary), Linux migration (if compatible), or buying new hardware.
- Support: if switching to Linux for business-critical systems, budget for training or paid support. (blog.zorin.com)
Bottom line and forward view
The 2025 window around Windows 10’s end of support has amplified long‑running tensions in the desktop ecosystem: vendor upgrade cycles versus community reuse, platform lock‑in versus user control, and short‑term commercial incentives versus long‑term environmental costs. The data shows a mixed outcome. On one hand, Jon Peddie Research and market trackers document stronger hardware demand — particularly in gaming and component channels — consistent with many users buying new Windows 11 systems or building new PCs. On the other hand, coordinated Linux campaigns, usability improvements in mainstream distros, and measurable increases in Linux desktop share demonstrate that switching to Linux is a viable and growing choice for a meaningful minority of users. (jonpeddie.com)This is not an either/or story where one path will completely dominate in the near term. Expect continued plurality: some users will adopt Linux to extend device life and control costs; gamers and enterprises with Windows dependencies will prefer new Windows 11 hardware; and others will use temporary bridges while planning long‑term strategies. The essential public policy question — whether manufacturers and platform owners should be allowed to push large refresh cycles without broader mitigation for e‑waste and consumer protection — remains unresolved and will shape how this transition looks in two to five years.
For anyone facing the October 14 deadline, the practical advice is straightforward: back up, test alternatives, and make a plan now rather than waiting until security patches stop. The tech ecosystem will continue to offer options, but the earlier you evaluate them, the smoother the transition will be — whichever path you choose. (endof10.org)
Source: Neowin 2025 year of Linux? Data suggests unsupported Windows 11 users overwhelmingly choosing one