Windows 11 has just hit an unexpected speed bump: after briefly overtaking Windows 10 in global usage during July, official analytics show Windows 11 slipped in August while Windows 10 regained ground, a reversal that underlines how jagged, fragile, and politically charged operating system transitions can be. The wobble matters because Windows 10 reaches its end of support on October 14, 2025, and the choices users and organisations make now — upgrade, pay for Extended Security Updates (ESU), or remain exposed — will shape security, costs, and upgrade cycles for months to come.
Statistical snapshots from major web‑analytics services showed a clear story: Windows 11 climbed steadily through 2024 and into 2025 and briefly surpassed Windows 10 in monthly share, but the August figures recorded a drop for Windows 11 and a small uptick for Windows 10. At the same time Microsoft has repeatedly confirmed the Windows 10 end‑of‑support date as October 14, 2025, after which consumer devices will no longer receive mainstream security updates unless they enroll in the ESU program. Microsoft’s consumer ESU option runs through October 13, 2026 and offers three enrollment routes: syncing settings via Windows Backup (no additional cost), redeeming Microsoft Rewards points, or a one‑time consumer purchase priced at $30 (pricing may vary by currency and taxes). Commercial ESU pricing follows a different scale and increases year‑on‑year.
This convergence of market share volatility and a hard end‑of‑support deadline is driving headlines and anxious planning among IT teams and home users alike. The August reversal — from mid‑50s market share for Windows 11 in July to just under 50% in August — is a reminder that raw monthly figures can move quickly and that headline milestones don't mean the migration is complete.
The Windows transition story is far from over. August’s numbers are a reminder that the real work takes place in IT departments, repair shops, and living rooms — not in monthly charts. Whether users choose to upgrade to Windows 11, buy a year of ESU protection, or pivot to alternative platforms, the next 30‑60 days will define how smoothly the ecosystem moves past a major support milestone and who pays for the consequences of that migration.
Source: Daily Express Windows 11 suffers very surprising glitch that proves Windows 10 isn't dead just
Statistical snapshots from major web‑analytics services showed a clear story: Windows 11 climbed steadily through 2024 and into 2025 and briefly surpassed Windows 10 in monthly share, but the August figures recorded a drop for Windows 11 and a small uptick for Windows 10. At the same time Microsoft has repeatedly confirmed the Windows 10 end‑of‑support date as October 14, 2025, after which consumer devices will no longer receive mainstream security updates unless they enroll in the ESU program. Microsoft’s consumer ESU option runs through October 13, 2026 and offers three enrollment routes: syncing settings via Windows Backup (no additional cost), redeeming Microsoft Rewards points, or a one‑time consumer purchase priced at $30 (pricing may vary by currency and taxes). Commercial ESU pricing follows a different scale and increases year‑on‑year.This convergence of market share volatility and a hard end‑of‑support deadline is driving headlines and anxious planning among IT teams and home users alike. The August reversal — from mid‑50s market share for Windows 11 in July to just under 50% in August — is a reminder that raw monthly figures can move quickly and that headline milestones don't mean the migration is complete.
Overview: why the August dip matters
What the change really shows
- Short‑term market snapshots can swing. Analytics that measure operating‑system usage are influenced by sample composition (regions, websites crawled, device mixes), rounding, and short‑term events such as promotional PC shipments or patching cycles.
- Windows 10 remains massively installed. Even as Windows 11 surged, tens or hundreds of millions of devices still ran Windows 10 in the months leading to October. That creates a large surface area of devices needing decisions: upgrade, buy ESU, or find alternatives.
- Deadlines force behaviour but don’t eliminate friction. An end‑of‑support date creates urgency, but compatibility, cost, organisational policy, and risk appetite determine whether that urgency turns into immediate upgrades.
Why the August wobble got attention
- The idea that a legacy OS would “grow” just as its support window is about to close seems counterintuitive — and therefore newsworthy.
- The reversal exposes a simple truth: migration trajectories are not monotonic. Adoption surges can stall or reverse when users hit technical, financial, or trust barriers.
- For sysadmins and security teams, every percentage point that fails to migrate before EoS becomes a potential security liability and a budget line item for ESU or replacement hardware.
Technical and practical reasons for slower Windows 11 adoption
Strict upgrade requirements create a natural ceiling
Windows 11’s system requirements — including a supported 64‑bit processor, UEFI with Secure Boot, and TPM 2.0 — were designed to raise the platform’s baseline security and reliability. While those rules improve the security posture for new devices, they also exclude a large population of older but still perfectly functional PCs.- Many business and consumer devices lack firmware settings, CPU support, or BIOS updates to enable TPM 2.0.
- Vendors and IT teams face compatibility checks with legacy applications, drivers, and imaging workflows.
- In some cases a manufacturer BIOS update can remediate eligibility; in others, hardware replacement is the only practical fix.
Enterprise caution and compatibility testing
Large organisations rarely upgrade en masse to a new OS the month it becomes available. Standard migration discipline demands:- Compatibility testing for line‑of‑business apps and drivers.
- Phased rollouts to pilot groups.
- Coordination with endpoint management tools.
Stability, patches, and public perception
Windows 11 has matured considerably, and Microsoft reports improvements in some reliability metrics. However, a visible stream of patch regressions and targeted bug incidents in 24H2 (for example, patch‑caused crashes or game/anti‑cheat issues reported by parts of the user base) has seeded hesitation among users who equate “new” with “risky.”- Some telemetry points to improved unexpected‑restart rates versus older Windows 10 builds.
- At the same time, a handful of high‑profile update regressions left some users waiting on fixes before they migrate.
Cost, timing, and the human factor
- Many users interpret software deadlines as hardware shopping deadlines. That mentality fuels concerns about e‑waste and unnecessary upgrades.
- For home users with limited budgets, the prospect of buying a new Copilot+ PC or moving to a Windows 11‑compatible machine is a non‑trivial expense.
- Some users simply prefer the familiarity of Windows 10 and delay the move unless forced by a credible security or functionality reason.
Microsoft’s Extended Security Updates (ESU): what it is and how it works
Consumer and commercial ESU — key facts
- End‑of‑support for Windows 10: October 14, 2025. After that date, regular monthly security updates stop for unsupported devices.
- Consumer ESU coverage period: Microsoft offers a consumer ESU option that provides security updates through October 13, 2026.
- Enrollment routes for consumers:
- Sync Windows settings using Windows Backup (no additional cost).
- Redeem 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points (no additional cost).
- One‑time purchase of the consumer ESU license for $30 (local currency equivalent and taxes may apply).
- Commercial ESU pricing: Organisations can purchase ESU through licensing channels; the published year‑one price starts higher (for example, the commercial Year 1 price is significantly above the consumer price) and is structured to increase in subsequent years. Commercial ESUs typically require Volume Licensing or CSP channels and are subject to different activation mechanics.
- Device coverage: A consumer ESU license can be applied to up to 10 devices under the same Microsoft account in many cases, but enrollment prerequisites include running Windows 10 22H2 and meeting other activation checks.
How to enroll (consumer path)
- Ensure the device is running Windows 10, version 22H2 and is up to date.
- Sign into the device with a Microsoft Account (local accounts may be prompted to sign in during enrollment).
- Go to Settings > Update & Security > Windows Update and follow the Enroll in ESU link if available.
- Choose one of the three enrollment options (Windows Backup sync, Microsoft Rewards points, or the one‑time purchase).
- After enrollment, monthly critical and important security updates for Windows 10 will arrive through Windows Update until the ESU coverage end date.
What ESU does — and does not — provide
- ESU delivers critical and important security updates, not feature or non‑security fixes.
- ESU does not extend general technical support, new features, or non‑security patches.
- ESU is intended as a temporary bridge — a stopgap to buy time for migration planning, not a long‑term strategy.
Risks and downsides of staying on Windows 10 beyond EoS
Security and compliance
- Unsupported systems no longer receive vulnerability patches, increasing exposure to exploit kits, ransomware, and targeted attacks.
- Organisations in regulated industries may face audit findings or compliance breaches if they retain unsupported OSes without compensating controls.
- Insurance and contractual liability could change for devices that are no longer maintained.
Operational and maintenance costs
- Maintaining a fleet on an unsupported OS often requires more manual patch work, compensating mitigations, and additional monitoring.
- Paid ESU is a recurring cost; commercial ESU pricing is intentionally steeper and increases each renewal period.
Compatibility and future software support
- Over time, third‑party vendors and hardware manufacturers may stop testing and certifying new software for Windows 10, which can create future incompatibilities for browsers, productivity software, and device drivers.
Environmental and ethical considerations
- A mass drive to replace otherwise functional hardware raises legitimate e‑waste concerns. Critics argue that Microsoft’s hardware‑centric upgrade policy encourages replacement rather than remediation.
- At the same time, security imperatives can force hardware refreshes where no practical in‑place upgrade exists.
Practical guidance: what readers and admins should do now
For home users
- Check compatibility: Run the official PC Health Check tool or review your manufacturer’s guidance to determine Windows 11 eligibility.
- Try before you buy: If possible, use a spare PC or a virtual machine to test Windows 11 and see if the apps and peripherals you rely on work correctly.
- Consider the ESU enrollment options: If your device is ineligible for Windows 11 and you can’t replace it immediately, use the free ESU route (Windows Backup or Microsoft Rewards) if eligible, or consider the $30 ESU option as an interim measure.
- Back up first: Always make a full backup before major OS upgrades or enrollment steps.
- Avoid untrusted bypass tools: Third‑party scripts or “bypass” installers that remove hardware checks (TPM/Secure Boot) offer a path to Windows 11 on unsupported machines but carry real risks: instability, bricking, security gaps, and no official support.
For small business and enterprise IT
- Inventory: Identify devices with compatibility gaps and prioritise mission‑critical systems.
- Pilot and test: Run pilot upgrades with representative hardware and applications to catch driver or software conflicts.
- Cost model: Compare one‑time ESU costs, multi‑year commercial ESU pricing, and the total cost of hardware refresh versus staged upgrades.
- Mitigation posture: For devices that remain on Windows 10, harden them with endpoint protection, network segmentation, and strict access controls.
- Consider cloud options: Windows 365 Cloud PC or Virtual Desktop solutions can be a migration option that preserves compatibility while retiring local legacy hardware.
For enterprises considering ESU
- ESU is a bridge, not a migration plan. Use the extra year to finish testing and execute staged rollouts.
- Factor in cumulative ESU costs, doubling pricing structure in subsequent years, and the administrative overhead of licensing and activation.
- ESU does not substitute for modern security controls; maintain layered defenses.
Critical analysis: strengths and weaknesses of Microsoft’s approach
Strengths
- Clear end‑of‑support date gives organisations a fixed deadline to plan against and prevents indefinite deferral.
- Consumer ESU options are significantly more accessible than previous generation ESU programs, with a low‑cost consumer route and free enrollment methods that accept Microsoft Rewards or Windows Backup sync.
- Raising the hardware baseline (TPM 2.0, Secure Boot) measurably improves platform security for future attacks and aligns Windows with modern threat expectations.
- Cloud‑based options (Windows 365, Windows 11 on Copilot+ PCs) give alternative migration paths that don’t require hardware upgrades for all endpoints.
Weaknesses and risks
- Perceived coercion and e‑waste risk: For many consumers the practical effect is pressure to buy new hardware for security updates, spurring environmental and affordability concerns.
- Fragmentation pain: A large installed base remaining on Windows 10 creates fragmentation that complicates testing, support, and patching for software vendors and IT teams.
- Patch regressions can undermine trust: Visibility of early 24H2 patch regressions and high‑profile issues in niche areas (games, niche drivers) feeds public hesitation and slows organic uptake.
- ESU as a revenue lever: Critics will see ESU pricing and the structure of consumer vs commercial options as incentivising hardware turnover rather than remediation. That perception may fuel regulatory and public relations headwinds.
What the August numbers actually mean — a sober conclusion
The August dip in Windows 11 share is not a cause for existential panic but it is a useful corrective to simplistic narratives that a platform migration is complete once a headline milestone is reached. The data illustrate how:- Adoption curves are noisy: monthly analytics are snapshots, not destinies.
- Technical barriers (TPM, Secure Boot, CPU support) and human factors (budget, testing timelines, user trust) still dominate migration decisions.
- Microsoft’s ESU program for consumers lowers the immediate barrier to remaining secure past October 14, 2025, but it is a one‑year bridge, not a permanent solution.
Quick checklist: essential steps before October 14, 2025
- Run the PC Health Check app on Windows 10 devices to verify Windows 11 eligibility.
- Identify mission‑critical devices that cannot be upgraded and plan ESU enrollment if necessary.
- Back up all important data and system images before attempting upgrades or enrollment.
- For organisations: schedule pilot groups, perform application compatibility testing, and document rollback plans.
- For consumers: explore the free ESU enrollment options (Windows Backup sync or Microsoft Rewards) before purchasing the $30 consumer ESU license.
- Avoid untrusted third‑party hacks to bypass hardware checks — those installs are unsupported and risky.
- Consider cloud or virtual desktop options if hardware replacement is impractical.
The Windows transition story is far from over. August’s numbers are a reminder that the real work takes place in IT departments, repair shops, and living rooms — not in monthly charts. Whether users choose to upgrade to Windows 11, buy a year of ESU protection, or pivot to alternative platforms, the next 30‑60 days will define how smoothly the ecosystem moves past a major support milestone and who pays for the consequences of that migration.
Source: Daily Express Windows 11 suffers very surprising glitch that proves Windows 10 isn't dead just