For the first time since its launch in October 2021, Windows 11 has surpassed Windows 10 in global desktop OS market share, marking a significant milestone not only for Microsoft but also for the evolving trajectory of PC operating systems. After several years of steady, though at times sluggish, adoption, the turning point for Windows 11 comes just months before its fourth anniversary—a testament to shifting user attitudes, mounting hardware compatibility, and the persuasive nudge of Microsoft’s support policies.
The Global Shift: Windows 11 Surges Ahead of Windows 10
Data from Statcounter shows that at the end of June, the race between Windows 11 and Windows 10 was neck and neck, with the two sharing equal percentages of the global Windows market. By early July, Windows 11 edged decisively forward, reaching a 51.77% share, officially overtaking its predecessor.This changing of the guard has not come overnight. Adoption figures paint a story of slow-but-steady progression: By the end of Windows 11’s first year, it held less than 10% market share—a figure dwarfed by the longevity of Windows 10, which benefited from a massive user base and unprecedented free upgrade period. One year later, Windows 11’s share climbed to 28%, and by the close of 2024, the number sat at 36%. The past six months, however, have seen a rapid acceleration in upgraders and new device purchases, pushing Windows 11 past the critical halfway mark among Windows installations worldwide.
Examining the Factors Behind the Surge
Several converging factors have fueled this recent leap:- End-of-Support Communications: Microsoft’s increasingly overt campaign to highlight Windows 10’s end of support (scheduled for October 14, 2025) has had a measurable effect on user decisions. Although paid Extended Security Updates (ESUs) will be available for an extra year—confirmed in official Microsoft documentation—there is little appetite among home users or smaller businesses to extend their tenure with an aging OS via ongoing fees.
- Evolving Hardware Requirements and PC Refresh Cycles: Windows 11's often controversial hardware requirements, including TPM 2.0 and newer CPUs, acted as an initial barrier for upgraders but have become less obstructive as older machines are retired and replaced. Industry analysts report increased sales of Windows 11-ready PCs, suggesting that users now view these requirements as a sign of forward compatibility and enhanced security, rather than a prohibitive cost.
- A New OS for Gamers and Power Users: According to the latest Steam hardware surveys, Windows 11 has become increasingly popular among gamers and enthusiasts. The platform’s support for advanced features like DirectStorage, Auto HDR, and improvements in window management (notably Snap Layouts) resonates strongly with high-performance users. These enhancements, unavailable on Windows 10, have given the new OS an edge among a vocal and influential segment of the market.
Numbers in Perspective
Windows 11 is now installed on more than 700 million devices, matching Microsoft’s adjusted estimate of a total Windows user base around 1.4 billion. This means one in two Windows devices worldwide is running the latest version. Notably, the combined Windows market share across all versions remains dominant among desktop operating systems—Statcounter places Windows at 70.14%, well ahead of macOS/OS X's 15% and Linux’s 4% share.The Ukrainian Exception: Windows 10’s Unwavering Grip
While most of the world is steadily tilting toward Windows 11, the Ukrainian market stands out as a striking exception. Here, Windows 10 retains absolute dominance: 68.7% of the country’s Windows installations are still on Windows 10, while Windows 11 accounts for just 25.1%. Over the past two years, Windows 7’s share has fallen sharply, from 23% to 4.4%, as the last holdouts gradually move to newer platforms.The reasons behind this Ukrainian divergence point to a combination of economic, infrastructural, and cultural factors:
- Economic Headwinds and Hardware Constraints: A significant portion of Ukraine’s population relies on older hardware, which often fails to meet Windows 11’s stringent requirements. Upgrading entire fleets of devices in homes, schools, and workplaces is cost-prohibitive for many.
- Resilience and Uncertainty Amid Ongoing Conflict: The war in Ukraine, with its attendant disruption to supply chains, personal finances, and IT budgets, further limits the capacity for mass hardware refreshes and OS migrations. Many businesses and households prefer the stability and familiarity of Windows 10, which continues to receive security updates for another year.
- Slow but Steady Decline in Legacy Systems: The steady erosion of Windows 7’s user base—down by nearly four-fifths over two years—suggests some momentum toward modernization. However, the jump to Windows 11 has been far slower than the global average.
Desktop OS Landscape in Ukraine
Other desktop platforms remain a distant second in Ukraine’s PC market. In July, Windows ran on between 81.68% (July) and 87.78% (May) of Ukrainian computers, while macOS had a 5.76% share. Linux and other alternatives command only a niche presence, consistent with global patterns.Interestingly, when expanding the focus to all device types (including mobile), Windows drops to second place overall. Android now dominates Ukraine, with a 47.66% share of total devices, while Windows makes up only 24.72%. iOS commands 16.85%, followed by macOS at 3.3%. This mirrors a broader global migration pattern, where smartphones—driven by Android’s ubiquity and affordability—now make up the plurality of connected devices.
Behind the Numbers: Why Windows 11 Hit Its Stride
The crossing of the adoption threshold for Windows 11 can be attributed to more than just the ticking clock on Windows 10 support. The past two years have seen a series of incremental updates to Windows 11, both in terms of user experience and compatibility.Product Maturity and New Feature Rollouts
Early reviews of Windows 11 noted its visual polish but critiqued gaps in feature parity, occasional instability, and a sometimes confusing start menu. Throughout 2023 and 2024, Microsoft delivered a succession of cumulative updates, addressing legacy issues, expanding customization options, and introducing new features originally previewed for power users:- AI Integration: Windows Copilot and new generative features, including AI-powered search, summarization, and real-time translation, now ship by default on many Windows 11 devices. For users in the knowledge economy, these features promise improved productivity and workflow streamlining—with visible impact on day-to-day PC usage.
- Security Advancements: Microsoft’s greater emphasis on hardware-based security—including virtualization-based security (VBS), secure boot, and enhanced driver controls—has made Windows 11 more resilient against ransomware and attack vectors that plagued earlier systems.
- Enhanced Update Mechanisms: The introduction of more reliable, predictable cumulative updates reduces user anxiety over disruptive “Patch Tuesday” incidents that historically affected Windows 10. Windows 11’s servicing model, coupled with clearer communication, is widely seen as an upgrade.
Market Forces and the Role of OEMs
PC OEMs have been pivotal in accelerating Windows 11 adoption. As of mid-2024, the overwhelming majority of new PCs ship with Windows 11 pre-installed, nudging default adoption ever higher. Schools and enterprises, encouraged to modernize fleets for security and compliance purposes, are also making the switch—further propelled by global return-to-office initiatives and hybrid work arrangements.According to IDC and Gartner, global PC shipments resumed modest growth post-pandemic, with 2024 figures showing recovery in both commercial and consumer segments. This natural hardware replacement cycle dovetails with Windows 11’s hardware requirements, resulting in increased penetration rates for the new OS.
Critical Analysis: Strengths, Risks, and the Road Ahead
Strengths of the Transition
- Security-First Paradigm: Windows 11’s hardware-enforced security stack is now seen as a model for future PC operating systems. The requirements for TPM 2.0 and secure boot, once derided as arbitrary, have proven effective in defending against certain classes of attacks.
- Modern User Experience: The new taskbar, Snap Layout enhancements, and improved touch/stylus input have won over many users, particularly as hybrid and flexible work models become the norm.
- AI and Cloud Integration: By embedding cloud-driven features and machine learning into the heart of the OS, Microsoft has begun to set itself apart from macOS and Chrome OS in the AI productivity race.
Potential Risks and Lingering Hurdles
- Hardware Obsolescence: Critics argue that the acceleration of hardware requirements has the unintended consequence of stranding millions of otherwise-viable PCs—especially in developing markets or among economically disadvantaged populations. Environmental advocates also warn of increased e-waste.
- Regional Disparities: The Ukrainian case illustrates that global averages can mask significant regional divergence. Countries facing economic or infrastructural headwinds could be left behind, creating pockets of outdated, unsupported devices more vulnerable to cyber threats.
- User Friction: The ongoing debate over bundled applications, changing UI paradigms, and the occasional bug or glitch means that not all users are enthusiastic. Some prefer the stability and familiarity of Windows 10, particularly in mission-critical environments.
The Upcoming Windows 10 Endgame
The single biggest variable influencing Windows 11’s future trajectory remains the definitive retirement of Windows 10 support. Although Microsoft has committed to optional paid security updates, the precedent from past OS sunsets—such as Windows 7 and XP—suggests that a substantial minority of users will cling to the familiar until forced off by absence of updates, application incompatibility, or outright pressure from IT departments.For Ukraine and similar markets, the hardware gap could widen, creating an extended support cycle well into 2026 or beyond. For the rest of the world, analysts expect Windows 11’s share to rise still further, possibly reaching 60–70% of Windows devices within the next year.
Conclusion: A New Era, with Cautionary Lessons
The rise of Windows 11 to majority status among Windows installations marks a new era for Microsoft and for PC users worldwide. It is the product of both technological progress and calibrated policy—an evolution shaped by the interplay of business cycles, security threats, and the relentless march of hardware innovation.Yet the uneven adoption in Ukraine is a warning: the pace of innovation must be matched by efforts to bridge the digital divide and support those left behind by economic and infrastructural constraints. As Microsoft prepares for its next chapter, the lessons of this transition are clear—modernization, while inevitable, must bring as many users as possible along for the ride.
Windows 11 has finally outpaced its predecessor, but its greatest legacy may depend on how inclusively, transparently, and securely it—for the first time in four years—leads the way into the future of desktop computing.
Source: ITC.ua For the first time in 4 years, Windows 11 has outpaced Windows 10 — but not in Ukraine