Windows desktop market-share data flipped twice this summer: after StatCounter showed Windows 11 briefly overtaking Windows 10 in July 2025, August’s snapshot reversed some of that gain and put Windows 11 back under the 50% mark while Windows 10 recovered several points—an unexpected wobble with practical consequences because Windows 10 reaches end of support on October 14, 2025. (support.microsoft.com) (gs.statcounter.com)
The summer of 2025 became a telemetry‑war headline: after nearly four years of incremental adoption, Windows 11 finally crossed key thresholds in some public trackers in July, prompting stories that the successor had become the “most used” Windows version. That moment was closely tied to the looming Windows 10 end‑of‑support deadline, a fixed Microsoft lifecycle date that drives purchasing and upgrade behavior. Microsoft’s official lifecycle page confirms October 14, 2025 as the end of mainstream updates and technical support for consumer editions of Windows 10; Microsoft also published consumer Extended Security Updates (ESU) options that alter the upgrade calculus for some households. (support.microsoft.com)
Public trackers measure different things in different ways. StatCounter’s public charts are pageview‑weighted snapshots drawn from a global panel of websites; the company publishes multiple related views (desktop Windows versions, Windows share across all devices, regional breakdowns), and month‑to‑month swings can be exaggerated by traffic and sampling differences. That technical detail is central for interpreting the headline numbers. Analysts and community discussions highlighted this exact point as the July/August swings were digested. (gs.statcounter.com)
For consumers and IT leaders the pragmatic takeaway is straightforward and urgent: verify device eligibility, prioritize backups and pilots, and use ESU only as a bridge while completing tested upgrades or hardware refreshes. Public telemetry will keep producing headlines; internal telemetry and careful staging will determine whether those headlines become business risks or manageable transitions.
If the migration enters a new phase—either a sustained acceleration to Windows 11 across multiple credible trackers or a persistent, large population remaining on Windows 10 post‑EOL—those outcomes will create distinct security, financial, and policy consequences. Until then, treat monthly web‑analytics snapshots as directional signals, not certainties, and let internal inventories, pilot results, and Microsoft’s lifecycle rules drive operational decisions.
Source: hi-Tech.ua Windows 10 again catches up Windows 11 in number of installs
Background / Overview
The summer of 2025 became a telemetry‑war headline: after nearly four years of incremental adoption, Windows 11 finally crossed key thresholds in some public trackers in July, prompting stories that the successor had become the “most used” Windows version. That moment was closely tied to the looming Windows 10 end‑of‑support deadline, a fixed Microsoft lifecycle date that drives purchasing and upgrade behavior. Microsoft’s official lifecycle page confirms October 14, 2025 as the end of mainstream updates and technical support for consumer editions of Windows 10; Microsoft also published consumer Extended Security Updates (ESU) options that alter the upgrade calculus for some households. (support.microsoft.com)Public trackers measure different things in different ways. StatCounter’s public charts are pageview‑weighted snapshots drawn from a global panel of websites; the company publishes multiple related views (desktop Windows versions, Windows share across all devices, regional breakdowns), and month‑to‑month swings can be exaggerated by traffic and sampling differences. That technical detail is central for interpreting the headline numbers. Analysts and community discussions highlighted this exact point as the July/August swings were digested. (gs.statcounter.com)
What the data actually shows
StatCounter: July surge, August correction
- StatCounter’s widely‑reported July 2025 snapshots placed Windows 11 ahead of Windows 10 in some views, with many outlets quoting mid‑50s percentages for Win11 versus low‑to‑mid‑40s for Win10. Those numbers varied by the exact StatCounter chart and the rounding or month used by each reporter. (thurrott.com)
- StatCounter’s end‑of‑August 2025 “Desktop Windows Version Market Share Worldwide” shows Windows 11 at ~49.02% and Windows 10 at ~45.65%—a smaller lead for Win11 compared with some July figures and a clear example of how a single‑month snapshot can appear to “reverse” a headline. (gs.statcounter.com)
Steam (gaming) snapshot: gamers run newer OSes
The Steam Hardware & Software Survey for August 2025 reports Windows 11 64‑bit at 60.39% and Windows 10 64‑bit at 35.08% among participating Steam users. The gamer population skews toward newer, higher‑spec machines—devices that tend to meet Windows 11’s hardware requirements more often—so Steam’s data is a complementary but segment‑specific view rather than a rebuttal of broader trackers. (store.steampowered.com)Cross‑checks: multiple trackers and press coverage
Independent outlets that tracked StatCounter’s monthly releases broadly agree on the trend: Windows 11 adoption accelerated through 2025, with a visible spike in mid‑year that corresponded with Microsoft’s EOL messaging. Still, the exact figures differ by outlet and by which StatCounter view is quoted (desktop vs. all devices). The July-to‑August swing is therefore best described as a narrowing of Windows 11’s advantage rather than a wholesale reversal of the longer‑term trend. (techpowerup.com)Why Windows 10 reclaimed ground in August (possible drivers)
The short answer: there isn’t a single smoking gun. Multiple plausible mechanisms, measurement effects, and behavioral choices can explain why Windows 11’s headline share fell and Windows 10’s increased in StatCounter’s August snapshot.1) Measurement noise and panel effects (statistical mechanics)
StatCounter measures pageviews across a global panel of sites. If a cohort of Windows 10 users visited more pages in August (regional holidays, major local events, traffic to high‑volume sites that attract older hardware users), StatCounter’s pageview weighting would register that as a higher share for Windows 10 even if device counts didn’t materially change. Analysts have emphasized that short‑term swings of a few percentage points are common in web‑analytics panels. This is not speculation: it is the central methodological caveat that StatCounter itself and commentators repeatedly raise. (gs.statcounter.com)2) Corporate and institutional conservatism
Large organizations manage hundreds to thousands of endpoints and prefer staged, tested rollouts for operating system upgrades. Some enterprises will delay Windows 11 rollouts to complete compatibility testing or may purchase new hardware that ships with Windows 10 intentionally configured before switching to Windows 11 later. In addition, some procurement flows result in bulk device reimaging or downgrading to Windows 10 for compatibility with legacy business applications. These behaviors, concentrated in enterprise fleets, can materially influence aggregate telemetry.3) Hardware eligibility and upgrade gates
Windows 11’s baseline compatibility requirements—TPM 2.0, UEFI Secure Boot, and minimum CPU families—mean a meaningful portion of the installed base cannot upgrade without firmware patches or hardware changes. That structural eligibility gap slows adoption and forces many consumers to either buy new hardware or remain on Windows 10 and enroll in ESU. Independent analyst estimates suggest hundreds of millions of PCs sit in that “practically ineligible” cohort; those projections are useful for scale but should be treated as estimates rather than precise counts.4) Consumer sentiment and perceived value
Windows 11 introduced UI and UX changes that some users find disruptive; privacy and telemetry concerns, bundled apps and promotional experiences, or the learning curve of a new UI can push risk‑averse users to postpone upgrades. Where the immediate benefit from upgrading is unclear—especially on older but still functional PCs—many users opt to stay put through October and weigh ESU or replacement later. This soft resistance is hard to measure directly but shows up in enterprise surveys and community threads.5) Promotional device shipments and seasonal effects
Retail PC shipments (for instance, back‑to‑school promotions, enterprise refresh cycles, or regional VAT/sales events) can temporarily tilt the installed base that appears in web traffic samples. If a wave of cheaper devices shipped with Windows 10 or if refurbished inventory temporarily increased Windows 10’s online presence, a one‑month bounce could appear in StatCounter’s charts. The point is that installed base dynamics and retail timing can distort month‑to‑month telemetry.The security clock: what October 14, 2025 means
Microsoft’s lifecycle notice is clear: Windows 10 mainstream support ends on October 14, 2025. After that date Microsoft will stop providing routine security updates and technical support for the consumer SKUs unless the device is enrolled in an ESU program. Microsoft’s documentation and announcement pages describe consumer and commercial ESU paths and enrollment prerequisites (Windows 10 version 22H2, linked Microsoft Account for some consumer enrollment pathways, etc.). These lifecycle facts are immovable and are the operational deadline driving much of the migration behavior. (support.microsoft.com)Options and trade‑offs
- Upgrade to Windows 11 if the device is eligible and business/app testing is complete.
- Enroll in the consumer ESU program to receive critical security updates for up to one additional year (through October 13, 2026), subject to Microsoft’s enrollment rules and potential fees or point‑redemption options.
- Replace the device if hardware is incompatible and the organization prefers a clean migration.
- Isolate or segment legacy endpoints to reduce risk if remediation is not immediately feasible.
Practical checklist for users and IT teams (actionable, prioritized)
- Check eligibility:
- Run Microsoft’s PC Health Check or a trusted compatibility tool to confirm if your PCs can upgrade to Windows 11. If eligible, schedule pilot upgrades. (support.microsoft.com)
- Inventory and prioritize:
- Triage devices by business criticality, age, and application compatibility. Prioritize non‑disruptive, high‑value upgrades first.
- Backup and test:
- Back up files and create an OS image for rollback tests. Stage upgrades on pilot devices and run app compatibility checks.
- Consider ESU where needed:
- If devices are ineligible or migration cannot complete before October 14, enroll qualifying devices in Extended Security Updates to buy time. Confirm prerequisites and whether free consumer enrollment applies to your scenario. (windowscentral.com)
- Plan hardware refreshes responsibly:
- Where replacement is required, align procurement with lifecycle windows and sustainability considerations—consider refurbished, trade‑in, and end‑of‑life recycling programs.
- Monitor telemetry and trackers:
- Don’t rely on a single monthly StatCounter number as the defining truth. Use multiple telemetry sources (internal management tools, Steam for gaming endpoints, StatCounter for web‑traffic trends) to triangulate reality. (store.steampowered.com)
Broader implications: Microsoft strategy, competition and sustainability
Microsoft’s product and AI push
Microsoft’s device and OS roadmap increasingly ties Windows 11 to on‑device AI features and to premium Copilot+ hardware tiers that include NPUs (neural processing units). That positioning creates a multi‑tier ecosystem where baseline Windows 11 functionality remains broadly available, while certain AI experiences are optimized for more powerful, often newer hardware. Critics argue this dynamic favors new hardware cycles and a faster retail churn—an argument visible in public filings and commentary. Those are contested assertions in public debate and should be treated as strategic interpretations rather than settled facts.Legal, regulatory and environmental questions
Public discussion and even legal challenges have invoked concerns that retiring free support for a large, still‑active installed base could create competitive advantages for Microsoft’s cloud and device offerings or spur unnecessary hardware turnover. Environmental advocates and analysts have also flagged potential e‑waste consequences: some analyst estimates put the number of affected PCs in the hundreds of millions, though those figures are projections built on specific assumptions about device condition and market behavior and should not be treated as precise counts. The legal and regulatory dimensions are evolving and depend on evidence that is not yet public or adjudicated.Strengths and risks in the current migration picture
Notable strengths
- Acceleration of modern security posture: Moving more devices to Windows 11 brings modern security defaults (Secure Boot, deeper virtualization‑based protections) to more endpoints, improving baseline resilience over time.
- Clear, enforceable deadlines: Microsoft’s lifecycle policy gives organizations a fixed planning horizon to budget and schedule migrations, a rare clarity that sharpens procurement and testing plans.
- Segmented adoption advantage: Newer device classes—gaming rigs, recent business laptops, and Copilot+ hardware—are adopting Windows 11 rapidly, enabling developers and ISVs to target newer platform features with growing reach (e.g., gaming performance and AI‑assisted workflows). (store.steampowered.com)
Key risks
- Fragmentation and vulnerability tail: A meaningful installed base staying on Windows 10 past EOL increases the population of potentially unpatched, exploitable endpoints—especially among budget users, nonprofits, and small businesses that cannot afford replacements or ESU. (support.microsoft.com)
- Measurement surprises complicating planning: Public telemetry swings (July vs. August) demonstrate that external trackers can’t be the sole basis for risk assessment; organizations need internal telemetry to understand their exposure.
- Operational cost of last‑minute migration: Compressing large migration programs into the final weeks before an EOL deadline increases risk—higher rollback rates, app incompatibilities, and business disruption are real operational costs.
- Environmental and reseller disruption: Rapid, hardware‑driven migration behavior could increase e‑waste and stress the secondary market for refurbishers and resellers; analyst projections about scale merit careful policy attention but should be scrutinized for methodology.
What to watch next (metrics and milestones)
- September and October StatCounter releases: Month‑to‑month changes will continue, but a sustained trend (Win11 > 50% across multiple trackers and regions) would be more meaningful than a single snapshot. Use multiple views (desktop vs. all devices; regional splits) to interpret the data. (gs.statcounter.com)
- Internal enterprise telemetry: IT teams should measure their own fleet’s upgrade cadence, application compatibility issues, and security posture—these internal numbers matter far more than global web‑analytics headlines.
- ESU enrollment rates and Microsoft communications: Uptake of consumer ESU (free or paid paths) will influence how many devices remain protected into 2026; changes in Microsoft’s enrollment rules or tools would materially alter risk assessments. (windowscentral.com)
- Regulatory or legal developments: Any judicial or regulatory intervention that affects Microsoft’s lifecycle policies would have outsized effects on enterprise planning—monitor filings, complaints, and related news.
Verdict and closing analysis
The July surge and August correction together tell a useful story: Windows 11 adoption has materially accelerated in 2025, but the migration is messy, regionally uneven, and sensitive to measurement method. StatCounter’s July number (when quoted from certain charts) and August’s adjustment are both valid within their datasets; neither is definitive by itself. What does matter concretely is the calendar: Windows 10’s official end of mainstream support on October 14, 2025 converts these telemetry debates into operational choices that affect security posture, IT budgets, and device lifecycle management. (support.microsoft.com)For consumers and IT leaders the pragmatic takeaway is straightforward and urgent: verify device eligibility, prioritize backups and pilots, and use ESU only as a bridge while completing tested upgrades or hardware refreshes. Public telemetry will keep producing headlines; internal telemetry and careful staging will determine whether those headlines become business risks or manageable transitions.
If the migration enters a new phase—either a sustained acceleration to Windows 11 across multiple credible trackers or a persistent, large population remaining on Windows 10 post‑EOL—those outcomes will create distinct security, financial, and policy consequences. Until then, treat monthly web‑analytics snapshots as directional signals, not certainties, and let internal inventories, pilot results, and Microsoft’s lifecycle rules drive operational decisions.
Source: hi-Tech.ua Windows 10 again catches up Windows 11 in number of installs
