Windows 10 ESU Costs Double in 2026 as Memory Shortages Reshape PC Refresh Plans

The experts ITPro spoke to don't agree on whether the refresh cycle is dead. They do agree that it no longer runs on one clock. For Windows admins, the timing matters. Microsoft's Windows 10 Extended Security Updates (ESU) pricing is about to double, so the "keep it or replace it" question is getting more urgent.

The experts: one cycle has become many​

ITPro interviewed three practitioners. Their views overlap more than the "nobody agrees" framing suggests.

• Michael Rosholt, SVP at M&A specialist and IT investment bank martinwolf, says the answer depends on the technology. In his view, the market is splitting by technology and use case instead of following one universal cycle. He sees IT leaders checking how equipment is actually used and whether an upgrade brings a real benefit. Heavy-workload users and people with a clear need for AI capabilities get new machines sooner. Regular users keep theirs longer. He also says refurbished hardware, leasing and financing are becoming a bigger part of procurement.
• Adam Bowles, who runs Canadian managed services firm Act360, questions whether "cycle" is even the right word. In his account, lighter-duty employees keep hardware longer to save money, while power users may get a new device every couple of years because functionality is improving so quickly. His company sorts hardware into tiers by role: cheaper thin clients or refurbished units for light work, newer machines for finance and development teams.
• Ole Bülow, director of business development at Egiss, says the useful question is which capabilities employees will actually use during a device's life. He warns against treating an "AI" label as an automatic reason to replace hardware. ITPro says he helped a 120,000-employee global enterprise move from a three-year to a four-year refresh cycle. That is one reported case, not proof that four years suits every organization.

The common thread is that refresh cycles are getting shorter and longer at the same time. Demanding users may need an upgrade before a device reaches end of life. Supported devices doing predictable work can stay in service longer.

Section summary: The calendar is giving way to role, workload and device condition. All of the evidence here comes from practitioners interviewed by ITPro, not from a representative survey.

How Windows started the shake-up​

Bowles traces the earliest pressure to Microsoft. Windows 11's hardware requirements forced replacements, in his words, "on OS support grounds, not performance." Windows 10's end of support then caused a buying rush.

Microsoft's lifecycle documentation sets out the dates. Windows 10 version 22H2 reached end of support on October 14, 2025. That covers the Home, Pro, Enterprise and Education editions, plus Enterprise 2015 LTSB and IoT Enterprise LTSB 2015. Those editions no longer get security updates unless they're enrolled in ESU. Microsoft tells organizations to migrate to Windows 11 or join ESU.

End of support didn't make every Windows 10 PC stop working, and it didn't force every organization to buy new hardware. It did turn performance-adequate machines into a security and budget decision. The cost of putting that decision off is about to go up.

The ESU price doubles next week​

Organizations that chose ESU instead of buying hardware are about to see the bill grow. Microsoft says Extended Security Updates for organizations and businesses on Windows 10 can be purchased today through the Microsoft Volume Licensing Program, at $61 USD per device for Year One. The price doubles every consecutive year, for a maximum of three years.

Managed Solution, a Microsoft partner, lists the coverage windows: Year 1 (Oct 15, 2025 – Oct 13, 2026): $61/device; Year 2 (Oct 14, 2026 – Oct 12, 2027): $122/device; Year 3 (Oct 13, 2027 – Oct 12, 2028): $244/device. Year two of ESU therefore starts on October 14, 2026.

Waiting doesn't save money. If a company skips a year, they must pay for the prior years as well because ESU licenses are cumulative. One Microsoft services provider calculates that a year two entry is $183 per device, and a year three entry $427 per device.

There are exceptions. Microsoft notes that ESU is available at no additional cost for Windows 10 virtual machines in certain services. The same provider names Azure Virtual Desktop, Windows 365 Cloud PCs, and Azure virtual machines. That fits Bülow's point that thin clients and remote computing need their own business case.

Here is a rough per-device calculation based on those list prices. Volume agreements can change the real numbers.

Compare that with the price of a new PC and the cost of migrating to it, and the replacement timeline gets clearer. Microsoft has repeatedly called ESU a temporary bridge, and the pricing reflects that.

Section summary: Windows support status, not raw performance, triggered many replacements. The ESU price jump on October 14 makes the remaining Windows 10 machines more expensive to keep.

Memory shortages complicate the buy-now math​

If ESU pushes organizations toward replacing hardware, the component market pushes back. ITPro links surging memory prices to the AI infrastructure buildout and says low-budget devices have been hit hardest.

ITPro cited a "projected 20% year-on-year fall in sales." IDC's June 2, 2026 update is more specific. IDC forecasts a 20% year-over-year decline in Q4 2026 shipments. Its full-year forecast is an 11.3% shipment decline. Neither figure is a revenue forecast, and the Q4 figure is a projection, not a result.

IDC also reports:

• Q1 2026 shipments grew 3%. IDC says much of that demand was pulled forward by buyers trying to beat price rises and stock shortages.
• It does not expect meaningful memory relief before the end of 2027.
• PC manufacturers are struggling to keep full product lineups available.
• Average selling prices are forecast to rise 17% in 2026. That is a market average, not a price rise on every model.
• Apple's MacBook Neo pushed up IDC's notebook forecast. IDC expects rivals to respond with new silicon, a more efficient Microsoft OS and aggressive promotions.

ITPro reports that OEMs are pushing replacements, but enterprises are spending more carefully. One manufacturer response is to cut memory in standard configurations to hold prices steady. Rosholt suggests more organizations may take up the financing and leasing offers that come with these deals.

Admins should check memory specs closely. A lower memory spec at the same price can leave a machine short for its whole service life, especially for the power users who are supposed to be getting the upgrades.

Section summary: Memory constraints are raising prices and narrowing product choice, which pulls against the ESU-driven pressure to replace.

AI PCs: what work will actually run on the device?​

ITPro separates early AI PC marketing from newer systems with genuinely useful on-device features. The argument for the second group is that power users may want to run agents locally instead of paying for constant cloud processing.

Bülow's test works in either case: understand the applications and where they process data before buying. Local AI hardware only matters if the workload actually runs on the device. It matters much less when the AI work happens in the cloud anyway.

A practical framework for a hybrid lifecycle​

The most useful part of the ITPro piece is Bülow's advice on running a policy. Here it is turned into steps:

1. Collect the right data. Combine performance and digital employee experience (DEX) telemetry with repair history, battery condition, warranty status and security requirements.
2. Diagnose before replacing. Check whether poor performance calls for a new device, a repair or a software change.
3. Write down the criteria. Set clear rules for keeping, repairing, redeploying or replacing equipment.
4. Assign an owner for exceptions. Someone has to review the edge cases instead of letting them slip.
5. Tier by role. Following Bowles's approach, match thin clients, refurbished units or new hardware to the workload.
6. Redeploy carefully. A device a power user has outgrown can go to a lighter-duty user after secure recovery and preparation.
7. Add Windows 10 holdouts to the plan. Before October 14, decide which remaining machines justify Year 2 ESU, which can be upgraded to Windows 11, and which should be retired.

Bülow also warns against assuming mini PCs or thin clients are underpowered. Whether they fit depends on the work. For thin clients, the cost comparison has to include the remote computing environment, connectivity, licensing, support and the device price.

The bottom line​

The ITPro story describes a messy but sensible change. The fixed refresh cycle is giving way to decisions based on role and device condition. The pressures come from several directions: Windows support deadlines, an ESU price that doubles on October 14, memory-driven price rises IDC doesn't expect to ease before late 2027, and AI hardware claims that need checking against real workloads.

No single refresh interval is right for everyone. Fleets that are measured, sorted into tiers and kept up to date on licensing will get through the memory shortage better than those still replacing everything on a fixed date.