Dell’s blunt assessment during its Q3 fiscal call — that the move from Windows 10 to Windows 11 is “10–12 points behind” the previous generation’s pace — has crystallized a story the industry has been watching for months: the Windows 11 transition is real, but it’s slower, messier, and more consequential for OEMs, enterprises, and consumers than many expected.
Microsoft formally ended mainstream support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025, closing the door on free security and feature updates for the operating system and leaving organizations with a handful of upgrade and extended-support options. That end‑of‑support date is a hard marker in the market and one of the main catalysts for migration activity. At the same time, independent telemetry shows Windows 11 has overtaken Windows 10 on several public trackers in mid‑2025, but the pace of replacement has been uneven and regionally divergent. StatCounter reported Windows 11 at roughly 55% of desktop Windows usage in October 2025 while Windows 10 still sat above 41%; those aggregate snapshots hide a complex reality where millions of devices remain ineligible, deferred, or simply uninterested in upgrading. Dell’s message — voiced by COO Jeff Clarke — is straightforward: the corporate and consumer installed base presents both a short‑term headwind for OEM shipments and a long runway of potential refresh demand. Dell quantified that runway during the call with a company estimate of an installed base of approximately 1.5 billion Windows PCs, of which roughly 500 million are capable of running Windows 11 but have not been upgraded, while another ~500 million are too old to run Windows 11 without hardware replacement. Treat those large numbers as directional company telemetry, not audited device inventories.
Dell’s message should be read as a market signal, not a deterministic forecast: a slower Windows 11 transition creates both risks and opportunities — for OEMs, a longer sales runway; for enterprises, a more complex migration; and for consumers, more time to make an informed choice.
(Analysis and commentary above draw on Dell’s Q3 fiscal remarks and public market data, Microsoft lifecycle documentation, StatCounter tracker snapshots, coverage of component and console pricing pressures, and industry commentary synthesized from multiple public sources and community analysis.
Source: gHacks Technology News Dell says the transition to Windows 11 is slower than Windows 10 - gHacks Tech News
Background
Microsoft formally ended mainstream support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025, closing the door on free security and feature updates for the operating system and leaving organizations with a handful of upgrade and extended-support options. That end‑of‑support date is a hard marker in the market and one of the main catalysts for migration activity. At the same time, independent telemetry shows Windows 11 has overtaken Windows 10 on several public trackers in mid‑2025, but the pace of replacement has been uneven and regionally divergent. StatCounter reported Windows 11 at roughly 55% of desktop Windows usage in October 2025 while Windows 10 still sat above 41%; those aggregate snapshots hide a complex reality where millions of devices remain ineligible, deferred, or simply uninterested in upgrading. Dell’s message — voiced by COO Jeff Clarke — is straightforward: the corporate and consumer installed base presents both a short‑term headwind for OEM shipments and a long runway of potential refresh demand. Dell quantified that runway during the call with a company estimate of an installed base of approximately 1.5 billion Windows PCs, of which roughly 500 million are capable of running Windows 11 but have not been upgraded, while another ~500 million are too old to run Windows 11 without hardware replacement. Treat those large numbers as directional company telemetry, not audited device inventories. Why Dell’s Statement Matters
Dell is more than an observer
Dell is one of the world’s largest PC OEMs and a major supplier of servers and networking gear. Its sales telemetry is not abstract: it reflects order pipelines, channel inventory, and enterprise procurement cycles. When Dell says the Windows 11 transition is behind previous OS migrations by 10–12 percentage points, that’s a channel-level signal that influences OEM production plans, corporate refresh budgets, and vendor go‑to‑market strategies. Multiple news outlets ran the quote from the earnings call within hours, validating that the comment came from Dell management and was not a paraphrase.It reframes the PC market outlook
Dell also used the earnings call to separate two narratives: a near-term softness in PC replacement demand tied to slower-than-expected Windows 11 adoption, and a medium-term optimism anchored in rising demand for AI servers and AI-capable client hardware (Copilot+ and NPU-enabled PCs). That duality helps explain Dell’s guidance: roughly flat PC revenue year‑over‑year, while server and networking — driven by AI infrastructure — grow strongly. Reuters, WSJ, and other outlets captured the same message: servers and AI gear are the engine, PCs are steady but not booming.The Data: What the Trackers and Microsoft Say
Windows 10 end-of-support and upgrade options
Microsoft’s lifecycle pages confirm the Windows 10 support cutoff on October 14, 2025, and outline the migration options: direct free upgrade for eligible devices, consumer Extended Security Updates (ESU) paths, and new device purchases. The company has been nudging users toward newer hardware and the Windows 11 platform for its security and AI features, though it has also provided short windows of paid ESU for those who need more time. These are firm, verifiable policy facts.Market share snapshots
Public trackers (StatCounter et al. show Windows 11 gaining material share through 2024–2025 and crossing into a majority position on some measures by mid‑2025. But month‑to‑month movement has moderated; after a period of faster gains earlier in the transition, recent months show smaller incremental shifts. Different trackers use different methods — web page view weighting, sample bias, or Steam/telemetry slices — which explains variation in headline percentages. Use these numbers to identify trend lines, not to precisely count hardware units.Why Adoption Is Slower Than Historical OS Transitions
1) A genuine hardware compatibility cliff
Windows 11 shipped with a higher baseline: TPM 2.0, UEFI Secure Boot, and CPU-generation minimums. Unlike a purely software refresh, this created a compatibility barrier that excluded a big chunk of otherwise functional PCs. Millions of units are simply not eligible without motherboard replacement or full system refresh. That hardware gating is one of the most concrete reasons adoption has been slower.2) Enterprise risk calculus and slower refresh cycles
Enterprises do not flip operating systems overnight. They require testing, application certification, imaging strategy, and staged rollouts — often measured in quarters or years. Many IT shops delay mass upgrades until hardware refresh windows or until security and management tooling fully stabilize. That behavior reduces the short‑term bump that OEMs experienced in prior OS transitions.3) Perception and user choice
For many users, Windows 11’s changes have felt incremental: UI tweaks, polished features, and AI add‑ons that are useful but not transformative for basic productivity. Early reports of bugs or occasional performance regressions amplified hesitancy among certain user groups. Some consumers simply prefer to “if it isn’t broken, don’t fix it,” especially when free ESU or other mitigations exist.4) Economic and geopolitical pressure
Component cost inflation — especially memory (DRAM/HBM) — and trade frictions have pushed hardware prices up in 2025, raising the total cost of replacement. Memory suppliers reallocating capacity toward AI datacenter needs has put upward cost pressure on DDR and GDDR memory used across PCs, GPUs, and consoles, and OEMs have cited these supply dynamics publicly. Tariffs and trade policy also ripple through device pricing, which can blunt consumer upgrade appetite.Dell’s Opportunity — And the Caveats
The upside Dell is pitching
- A large installed base still on Windows 10 represents potential future demand for replacements and enterprise refreshes.
- AI differentiation (Copilot+, local small language models, NPUs) can be bundled as a reason to refresh hardware.
- Dell’s server and networking business is already benefiting from AI infrastructure purchases, offsetting weakness in client devices.
Where to be cautious
- Dell’s big numbers (1.5 billion installed base, 500 million upgradeable but unconverted) are management estimates intended to size opportunity; they should be reconciled against independent telemetry and an organization’s internal asset inventory before using them to make capital‑allocation decisions. Treat them as directional, not absolute.
- The theoretical pool of upgradeable devices does not translate uniformly into near‑term shipments. Replacement timing depends on budgets, tactical priorities, and the perceived value of on‑device AI versus cloud services.
- Consumer behavior can be sticky. A substantial fraction of home users will postpone upgrades until hardware actually fails or until a compelling new use case emerges that requires modern silicon.
The AI PC Argument: Will AI Drive Refreshes?
Vendor case: yes — when it’s visible and useful
OEMs argue that the promise of on‑device AI (faster small models, local Recall features, integrated Copilot experiences) will justify new purchases for users who can monetize improved productivity, enhanced security, or offline AI functionality. Dell specifically highlighted NPUs/MPUs and small LLMs as factors that will sustain PC demand into the medium term. For targeted audiences — creators, knowledge workers, firms with sensitive data — local AI acceleration can be a differentiator.Practical reality: most AI services remain cloud-first
For most consumers, AI features are currently accessible via cloud APIs, web apps, and browser‑based services — not a must‑have on every endpoint. Many AI-enhanced experiences don’t yet require specialized client silicon, which lowers the immediate motivation to buy new hardware purely for AI. Copilot+ PCs are a niche premium play in the near term; broad, sustained adoption will need clear, repeatable productivity improvements and affordable pricing.Supply, Pricing, and Macro Risks
Memory shortages and price pressure
DRAM and HBM allocation for AI datacenter builds has tightened memory markets in 2025. The result: retail memory kits and OEM BOMs have seen price inflation, and vendors have warned of further increases. That directly raises the manufacturing cost for PCs and gaming consoles and can impact OEM pricing strategies. Evidence of this squeeze has been widely reported across industry outlets.Console price movements as a proxy for consumer electronics inflation
Console price hikes from major vendors this year highlight a broader phenomenon: supply constraints and tariffs are prompting price changes across consumer electronics. That sets a more challenging price environment for discretionary purchases, including PC upgrades. Consumers facing higher console or peripheral costs may deprioritize a PC refresh.Tariffs and trade policy
Tariff policy and reshoring conversations affect OEM sourcing and margin planning. Manufacturers are re-evaluating where to build devices and how to price them, and those dynamics feed directly into consumer and enterprise pricing. The result for OEMs like Dell is a need to balance margin protection with competitive pricing to stimulate refresh cycles.What IT Leaders Should Do Now (Practical Playbook)
- Inventory first. Run hardware and firmware audits to classify devices as:
- Windows 11‑ready
- Upgradeable with BIOS/firmware/TPM changes
- Replacement required
- Prioritize business-critical apps. Map line‑of‑business (LOB) apps against compatibility and vendor support windows.
- Stage pilots and measure. Execute staggered rollouts with rollback plans, focusing early on non-critical cohorts to validate imaging and performance.
- Consider cost tradeoffs. Factor in component inflation, warranty timelines, and the value of Copilot+ features for specific user groups before committing to mass replacements.
- Use available bridges. If replacement isn’t affordable immediately, consider ESU options where appropriate and augment endpoint protections (EPP/EPR tools) to reduce risk exposure.
Consumer Perspective: Buy, Upgrade, or Wait?
- If your PC is Windows 11‑capable and performing well, there is no technical emergency to upgrade the OS immediately — but plan for eventual migration if security and feature access matter.
- If your device is ineligible, compare the cost of component upgrades (rarely economical) versus purchasing a modern, more energy‑efficient replacement. Given rising memory and component costs, timing purchases around vendor deals remains important.
- If privacy or account concerns are paramount, review the ESU enrollment terms carefully — some options require account and backup behaviors that may be unacceptable to certain users.
Risks Beyond the Numbers
Fragmentation and support complexity
A prolonged transition where significant fleets run both Windows 10 and Windows 11 increases complexity: patching, imaging, and helpdesk workflows are harder to standardize, and software testing windows grow. That raises operational costs and compliance risk for enterprises.Environmental and consumer sentiment risks
Forced obsolescence narratives resonate with consumers and regulators. Manufacturers and Microsoft face scrutiny over sustainability and the ethics of hardware gating — where functional devices become de‑facto obsolete for feature parity. That can create reputational risk and regulatory attention.Financial risk for OEMs and channels
If the refresh runway stretches longer than expected, OEMs could face inventory mismatches, margin compression, and the need to pivot more aggressively into services, software, or enterprise hardware (servers) to maintain top‑line growth. Dell appears to be making that pivot already by leaning into AI server demand.What to Watch Next — Key Indicators
- Month‑over‑month movement in StatCounter and other public trackers for Windows 10 vs Windows 11.
- Enterprise survey data (Canalys, IDC) on scheduled refresh budgets and expected timing.
- Memory and component pricing trends across DDR, GDDR, and HBM.
- OEM channel inventory signals — are manufacturers discounting older SKUs or bundling AI features to accelerate replacement?
- Microsoft policy shifts: any relaxation of compatibility gates, incentives for upgrade, or ESU program extensions.
Final Analysis: Slow Transition, Long Game
Dell’s public framing is accurate in one fundamental way: the Windows 11 migration is not following the same rapid trajectory as prior mass OS transitions. The why is multi‑factorial — hardware gating, enterprise prudence, economic pressure, and user perception — and each factor has its own timeline. Dell sees a long runway to monetize replacements, but there is important nuance: the available upgradeable pool does not instantly convert into near‑term sales. Dell’s revenues for Q3 and its optimistic AI server backlog show where growth is concentrated now, and that will shape how the company and others invest in go‑to‑market strategies for client PCs. For IT leaders, the prudent approach is to inventory, prioritize, and phase migrations in a way that balances security, cost, and productivity. For consumers, the calculus is personal: capability, economics, and how much on‑device AI you actually need right now will determine whether to buy, upgrade, or wait.Dell’s message should be read as a market signal, not a deterministic forecast: a slower Windows 11 transition creates both risks and opportunities — for OEMs, a longer sales runway; for enterprises, a more complex migration; and for consumers, more time to make an informed choice.
(Analysis and commentary above draw on Dell’s Q3 fiscal remarks and public market data, Microsoft lifecycle documentation, StatCounter tracker snapshots, coverage of component and console pricing pressures, and industry commentary synthesized from multiple public sources and community analysis.
Source: gHacks Technology News Dell says the transition to Windows 11 is slower than Windows 10 - gHacks Tech News
