Global PC Market Q3 2025: Windows 10 End of Support Spurs Migration

The global PC market staged a visible recovery in the third quarter of 2025, driven by enterprise refreshes and education programs as organisations scramble to deal with Microsoft’s Windows 10 end-of-support deadline — yet North America stands out as the notable exception, with shipments effectively flat amid tariff-driven front‑loading, inventory digestion, and cautious consumer demand. IDC’s preliminary tracker put worldwide shipments at roughly 75.8 million units in Q3 2025, a year‑over‑year increase of about 9–9.4%, but the Americas grew by only ~1%, while EMEA and Asia Pacific posted double‑digit gains.
This feature unpacks what’s behind those headline numbers, why the U.S. market is behaving differently from the rest of the world, and what the short‑ and medium‑term implications are for OEMs, resellers, enterprise IT, and everyday buyers. It cross‑references official Microsoft lifecycle guidance, major market trackers, and recent trade reporting to provide a verified, practical view that WindowsForum readers can use to plan migrations, procurement, and pricing strategies.

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Background / Overview​

Windows 10 reaches end of support on October 14, 2025. After that date Microsoft will no longer provide routine security or feature updates for Windows 10 devices unless those devices are enrolled in the consumer Extended Security Updates (ESU) program or moved to Windows 11. Microsoft’s official guidance lists upgrade, replacement, or ESU enrollment as the primary paths forward. That deadline is a hard calendar anchor that has been widely publicised and is shaping procurement windows for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.
Market trackers (IDC, Canalys, Gartner and others) show the OS lifecycle event is a real demand driver — but it’s producing a two‑speed market. Enterprise and education channels are buying now to meet compliance and fleet‑management needs, while many consumers are deferring replacements because of economic pressure and tariff‑related price uncertainty. The net result is strong global shipment growth concentrated outside the Americas, with the U.S. sell‑through lagging the sell‑in signal that vendors shipped earlier in the year.

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What the Q3 numbers actually show​

The headline: shipments are up — but geography tells a different story​

• Global shipments: ~75.8 million units in Q3 2025, up roughly 9.4% YoY according to preliminary IDC reads.
• Regional split: EMEA and Asia Pacific/Greater China recorded high‑teens to mid‑teens growth (~14% reported by IDC), while the Americas grew by only about 1% for the quarter. This divergence is the key lens for understanding the “patchy recovery.”
• Top vendors (Q3 preliminaries): Lenovo remained the global leader, with ~25% share; HP and Dell followed; Apple and ASUS rounded out the top five. Vendor unit shares reported by market trackers broadly align with these rankings.

Why this matters: headline growth masks structural differences in demand. When one major market (North America) is flat while others accelerate, OEMs face complex channel math — they must balance sell‑in (shipments to distributors) with actual sell‑through (end‑user purchases), pricing, and inventory risk.

Why IDC’s shipment metric is easy to misread​

IDC and other trackers report shipments — i.e., units shipped into reseller and distributor channels — not retail POS or enterprise‑deployed device counts. That matters because Q1 and early‑2025 activity included significant front‑loading as vendors pushed stock into the U.S. channel ahead of tariff changes. The result: Q1 sell‑in looked strong, but Q2–Q3 sell‑through flattened while channels digested inventory. Media coverage and vendor commentary repeatedly stress this “pull‑forward then digest” pattern.

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The U.S. anomaly: tariffs, front‑loading, and consumer caution​

Tariffs created a tactical sell‑in spike and a strategic chill​

The Trump administration’s tariff proposals and rounds of duties on imported Chinese goods in 2025 created a simple incentive for OEMs and distributors: ship earlier to avoid higher landed costs, or face the prospect of passing sharp tariff increases to customers. That dynamic produced a measurable Q1 spike in shipments to the United States and raised channel inventories. When tariffs remained in flux and consumers balked at higher prices, sell‑through slowed — leaving shipments in subsequent quarters looking weak even if the overall pipeline contained a large number of devices. Reuters and other trade reporting show U.S. container volumes and import patterns shifted markedly in 2025, reflecting this broader trade disruption.
The practical effect: vendors over‑shipped into channels in anticipation of duties; channels then tightened orders while working off excess stock, and consumers delayed discretionary buys as prices moved higher for a range of goods (and household budgets tightened). That sequence explains why IDC sees a stark regional divergence in Q3 numbers.

Consumers are price‑sensitive — especially for premium “AI PCs”​

OEMs pushed higher‑margin, AI‑branded PCs (NPUs, Copilot messaging, faster integrated GPUs) during 2025, which raised average selling prices for many mainstream SKUs. In normal markets, feature‑led upsells can work; in an environment where tariffs and inflation push essentials higher, many households prefer delaying non‑essential upgrades. Analysts and channel commentaries repeatedly emphasise that consumers buy because they need to — not because a calendar date exists. For many households, battery death, broken screens, and real performance pain remain the primary buying triggers, not an OS lifecycle countdown.

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The Windows 10 effect: an over‑time, not one‑off, migration​

Microsoft’s deadlines and the ESU safety valve​

Microsoft’s official lifecycle calendar confirms October 14, 2025 as the end-of-support date for Windows 10 and Microsoft published consumer ESU enrollment options that extend critical security updates through October 13, 2026 for enrolled devices. ESU choices (free options tied to sync settings, redeeming Microsoft Rewards points, or a small paid enrollment) give consumers and some small organisations a cost‑effective way to defer replacement while remaining patched for a year. That built‑in “safety valve” significantly reduces immediate replacement pressure and introduces measured demand smoothing.

A multi‑year migration window rather than a single spike​

Historical EOL events (e.g., Windows 7 in 2019) produced sharp refresh waves. In 2025 the story is more protracted: hundreds of millions of devices remain on Windows 10, but many are not eligible for Windows 11 due to hardware constraints (TPM 2.0, Secure Boot, CPU generation), driver questions, or specialized line‑of‑business compatibility issues. The combination of ESU availability, hardware eligibility friction, and fiscal caution means the upgrade cycle will stretch into 2026 — a prediction IDC has explicitly made. For enterprise IT this means staged migration planning, not a single migration blitz.

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OTT: What OEMs, resellers and IT buyers need to do now​

For OEMs and channel partners: fix the channel math​

• Inventory discipline: Reconcile sell‑in vs sell‑through weekly. Avoid recursive promotion that destroys ASPs.
• Flexible financing and trade‑in: Finance and trade‑in programs reduce consumer hesitation and improve the velocity of higher‑margin SKUs.
• Clear messaging: Publish simple, device‑level Windows 11 eligibility guidance and practical upgrade instructions — not just marketing copy about NPUs. Clear messaging converts cautious buyers.

For corporate and public sector IT teams: treat ESU as a bridge, not a destination​

• Audit: Identify every Windows 10 endpoint by model, age, Windows build (22H2 requirement), and business criticality.
• Triage: Segment devices into: immediate replace (non‑eligible for Windows 11 and high‑risk), delayed replace (ESU candidate), and upgrade in place (eligible for Windows 11).
• Pilot and test: Run pilot migrations for critical apps and peripherals; validate driver stacks, security posture, and management (Intune/MDM) integration.
• Plan budgets: Lock trade‑in, refurbishment, and ITAD commitments early to control capex and environmental risk.

These steps convert a noisy marketing cycle into a controlled operational program. Analysts and field reports stress a methodical approach; institutions that delay fleet audits risk rushed, expensive migrations.

For consumers: eligibility first, then economics​

• Run Microsoft’s PC Health Check and confirm whether your device meets Windows 11 minimum requirements.
• Consider ESU enrollment if the device is critical and replacement cost is prohibitive — remember ESU is a time‑limited program.
• If you do buy a new PC, compare true value: for many users, a midrange laptop that balances battery life and modern security features delivers better long‑term value than an immediate high‑end “AI PC” that the user will not fully exploit.

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Strengths and opportunities in the current market​

What’s working​

• Enterprise demand is predictable: Organisations with compliance or security needs are moving in measurable waves, which creates programmable revenue for OEMs and managed service providers. IDC and Gartner both highlight steady commercial refresh activity.
• Education and public sector refreshes: Large tender cycles (GIGA school programs in Japan, regional education budgets) are concentrated pockets of volume that can offset softer retail sales.
• AI PC premium: Where on‑device acceleration yields measurable workflow improvements (creative suites, local inference for privacy or latency), vendors can sustain higher ASPs.

Where the opportunity is misunderstood​

• The term “AI‑capable PC” covers a broad range of capabilities. Buyers should focus on measurable outcomes (reduced latency to results, offline privacy benefits, lower cloud inference costs) rather than marketing claims about TOPS or marketing badges. Vendors that can show ROI will win real deployments; those that rely on buzz will struggle to justify premium price tags.

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Risks and cautionary notes​

Tariff volatility remains the single largest short‑term risk​

Trade policy can reverse vendor pricing assumptions quickly. If duties are extended, manufacturers will either eat margin or pass costs to buyers; both scenarios carry demand risk. Tariff uncertainty already produced Q1 front‑loading and Q2–Q3 digestion — a replay of that pattern would force further discounting or margin pressure. Reuters coverage of U.S. import patterns shows the real‑time trade effects.

Inventory hangover and margin compression​

High channel inventories — if not cleared through consistent, margin‑protecting offers — will lead to discounting. That compresses ASPs and undermines the business case for premium features. Channel partners overloaded with pre‑tariff stock remain especially exposed.

ESU can foster dangerous complacency​

ESU is a legitimate tactical option, but it is not a permanent security solution. Extended reliance on ESU delays the inevitable cost of migration and may increase net migration cost if multiple patches and application remediation are deferred. Analysts urge IT teams to treat ESU as a bridge — not a permanent fix.

Sustainability and e‑waste risks (cautionary)​

Large, concentrated refreshes — especially in education and public procurement — create real lifecycle and e‑waste questions. Estimates of “hundreds of millions” of at‑risk devices circulate in commentary, but these headline figures vary widely and are difficult to quantify precisely; treat such numbers with caution unless supported by robust lifecycle audits. Vendors and public buyers should insist on buyback, refurbishment, and certified recycling to mitigate reputational and regulatory risk.

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Tactical roadmap: 10 concrete actions for stakeholders​

• Audit every Windows 10 endpoint and tag it by Windows build, CPU family, TPM/UEFI status, and business criticality.
• Prioritise immediate replacements for internet‑facing and high‑privilege endpoints.
• Enrol eligible devices in ESU only as a conscious, time‑boxed measure.
• Negotiate trade‑in and refurbishment commitments with OEMs to protect resale value.
• Use pilot programs to validate AI workload benefits before mass procurement of premium NPUs.
• Monitor channel inventory ratios weekly and align promotions to sell‑through, not sell‑in.
• Offer transparent Windows 11 eligibility checklists to customers and internal users.
• For OEMs, diversify supply footprints and secure alternative sourcing to reduce tariff exposure.
• For resellers, package migration services (data transfer, imaging, asset tagging) as value‑add offerings.
• Communicate timelines clearly to end users — poor communication drives unnecessary panic buys or last‑minute procurement that generates premium costs.

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Longer‑term outlook​

If tariffs stabilise and channels normalise inventories, the PC market’s mid‑term trajectory is still constructive: the Windows 10 deadline, education refresh cycles, and the gradual monetisation of AI features will sustain demand well into 2026. IDC expects demand for Windows 11‑ready PCs to continue pushing through 2026; Canalys and Gartner reach similar medium‑term conclusions, albeit with different growth magnitudes. That said, the timing and distribution of that growth will be lumpy: expect pockets of heavy procurement (education, public sector, targeted enterprise refresh waves) interspersed with longer tails in consumer markets where ESU and cautious spending prevail.

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Final assessment — what matters most to Windows users and buyers​

• Windows 10 EOL is real and actionable. Organisations that don’t start a staged migration program now will face higher costs and operational risk later. Microsoft’s ESU program is a helpful buffer, but it’s a one‑year bandage, not a cure.
• The U.S. market’s flat Q3 is not a sign the PC market is dead — it’s a symptom of supply‑timing, tariff policy, and consumer economics. Global shipments rose strongly; regional differences matter for logistics, pricing and channel strategy.
• Buyers should prioritise real utility over marketing. For most people, a well‑configured mainstream laptop that meets Windows 11 requirements and offers solid battery life will be a better purchase than paying a premium for AI hardware that will not be used to full effect.
• Vendors and resellers must earn trust by simplifying the migration path. Clear eligibility tools, trade‑in programs, and bundled migration services will unlock consumer demand and prevent margin‑crushing discount cycles.

The next two quarters will reveal whether deferred consumer demand converges into a meaningful 2026 uplift or whether tariffs and price sensitivity keep retail buyers on the sidelines longer than OEMs expect. For now, the market’s healthy global shipment numbers coexist with a North American pause — and that contrast is the defining story PC buyers, IT managers, and channel partners should plan around.

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(Verified claims in this piece reference Microsoft’s official lifecycle and ESU pages, IDC’s Q3 preliminary commentary as reported by industry trackers, and multiple independent trade and news reports on tariff impacts and channel behaviour. Some high‑level estimates about e‑waste and “hundreds of millions” of at‑risk devices are discussed in the public commentary but are flagged here as difficult to verify precisely without comprehensive lifecycle studies.)

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Source: theregister.com US PC shipments flat amid tariff shock and weak demand