Lenovo Leads PC Shipments While HP Dominates Windows 10 Installed Base

HP still tops the installed base of Windows 10 PCs even as Lenovo remains the world’s largest PC shipper — but those two facts describe different markets and tell very different stories about where buyers, OEMs and enterprises are actually spending their money.

Background: two measurements, two stories​

There are two common ways to talk about who “leads” the PC market: shipments (units sold into channels over a period) and installed base / active device telemetry (which vendors’ machines are actually in active use right now). Recent public figures show a clear divergence:

• Industry shipment trackers (IDC, Gartner, Canalys and others) report that Lenovo is the largest PC manufacturer by shipments, consistently topping the global rankings in 2024–2025. This reflects units shipped to retailers, distributors, and corporate channels.
• Telemetry-based snapshots of active Windows 10 devices—most notably monthly AdDuplex reports that sample millions of Windows devices via in‑app ad SDKs—have repeatedly shown HP as the most common OEM among Windows 10 PCs in the sample. Those AdDuplex figures (histor reports) put HP well ahead of Dell and Lenovo in the Windows 10 install-base breakdown.

Both statements can be true at the same time because they measure different things. Understanding the gap requires unpacking methodology, distribution channels and the age/profile of Windows 10 computers in the wild.

---

Why the two rankings differ: methodology and market realities​

Installed base vs. shipment data — apples and oranges​

Shipment reports (Canalys, Gartner, IDC) measure sell‑in: how many units OEMs shipped to channels in a quarter or year. These reports are the gold standard for tracking vendor market share by volume and reflect OEM production and channel strategy. They show Lenovo leading global shipments for recent quarters and for 2024 overall.
Telemetry reports (AdDuplex) measure active device usage where the sample is taken: AdDuplex’s SDK runs inside thousands of Windows Store apps and records the OEM and OS information of the devices that loaded those ads. This produces a snapshot of what devices are actively used by users of that app ecosystem—not total worldwide unit shipments. AdDuplex has historically reported HP as the largest OEM by share among Windows 10 devices in their sample.
These methodological differences explain much of the apparent contradiction:

• Shipments measure new hardware flowing into the market now.
• Installed‑base telemetry measures active hardware already in the field, which can lag shipments by years.
• AdDuplex’s sample is app‑based and may over‑ or under‑represent specific regions, market segments, or enterprise devices depending on the apps that embed the SDK.

Age of fleets and enterprise footprint​

Large OEMs like HP have historically strong footprints in enterprise, education and public-sector markets. Those deployments are often on long refresh cadences (3–5 years or more), meaning HP machines purchased during previous corporate refresh cycles stay in active use longer. If a substantial portion of those fleets remain on Windows 10 (either by policy, compatibility needs, or delayed upgrades), that increases HP’s share of the Windows 10 installed base even if Lenovo ships more new units today. Analysts and vendors have noted companies are pacing Windows refreshes around Windows 10 end‑of‑support events, generating uneven upgrade rhythms across OEMs and regions.

Windows 10 vs. Windows 11 mix and OEM strategy​

Lenovo’s leadership among shipments reflects current product portfolio breadth and channel reach, including rapid rollouts of Windows 11–capable hardware and new designs. But a lot of the active Windows 10 footprint is older machines (and business desktops) that weren’t replaced or were intentionally kept on Windows 10 for compatibility reasons.
AdDuplex’s Windows-centric telemetry historically showed HP ahead in Windows 10‑device share (figures like ~22–24% of the sampled Windows 10 devices), with Dell and Lenovo trailing — a pattern that can persist long after commercial shipment leadership shifted. That disconnect highlights how shipment leadership does not instantly translate to installed‑base dominance for any given OS version.

---

What the numbers say today (how to read recent public data)​

Shipment trackers: Lenovo leads global shipments​

Multiple independent market trackers report the same headline: Lenovo is the top PC shipper by units in recent quarters and for full‑year 2024. Canalys’ PC market pulses for 2024–2025 and IDC/Gartner snapshots show Lenovo shipping the most units and holding the largest share of quarterly shipments; HP and Dell follow. These reports are consistent and based on sell‑in data from channel and OEM reporting.
Why this matters: shipments drive OEM revenue, indicate supply‑chain momentum, and show which brands are winning current buyer budgets.

Installed‑base telemetry: HP prominent among Windows 10 machines​

AdDuplex’s monthly snapshots (their Windows‑device usage reports) have repeatedly shown HP as the most used OEM among Windows 10 PCs sampled, with figures historically in the low‑to‑mid‑20 percent range for HP’s share of Windows 10 devices in the AdDuplex dataset. Dell and Lenovo typically follow, with Microsoft’s Surface line a much smaller percentage of the overall Windows 10 install base. AdDuplex’s reports have been widely syndicated by Windows news sites.
Why this matters: installed‑base numbers reflect the real world devices people actually have turned on, which matters for software vendors, patching strategy, and OEM reputation among end users.

---

How reliable are AdDuplex numbers? Caveats and biases​

AdDuplex’s dataset is valuable but must be read with care. Key limitations:

• Sampling bias: AdDuplex collects data from apps using its SDK (thousands of apps). That sample is not a census of all Windows devices and can over‑represent consumer users of ad‑supported apps or certain regions where those apps are popular. AdDuplex explicitly states that its reports are a sample drawn from in‑app telemetry.
• OS and app footprint differences: Enterprise devices often run line-of-business apps that may not embed ad SDKs, or may be managed and blocked from running consumer app stores, so the sample can undercount enterprise devices relative to consumer notebooks and desktops.
• Time lag and OS upgrade skew: AdDuplex captures which OS version is currently active on devices they see. If an OEM ships many Windows 11 machines or if its buyers upgrade to Windows 11 faster, that OEM’s share of Windows 10 devices in the AdDuplex sample will shrink even while its overall shipments stay strong.

Because of these characteristics, telemetry snapshots are best used to understand usage patterns within the sampled universe rather than to substitute for shipment‑based market share estimates. Multiple outlets that republished AdDuplex data note this sampling method and urge caution about extrapolating to total market share.

---

Practical explanations for why HP appears “most used” on Windows 10​

Below are plausible, evidence‑backed reasons why HP can top the Windows 10 installed base while Lenovo leads shipments:

• Large enterprise and education installed base: HP historically has deep ties to enterprise and education procurement channels; those installed fleets often remain on existing OS versions longer and can include many Windows 10 systems that remain active. Channel and market reports note that refresh cycles and enterprise purchasing behavior continue to shape shipments unevenly across vendors.
• Back catalog of consumer models in circulation: HP’s consumer portfolio has been large and diverse for years. Many older consumer HP laptops and desktops still run Windows 10 at home and thus show up in telemetry samples.
• Regional penetration and sample composition: AdDuplex samples can over‑index in some regions where HP historically sells strongly. That regional skew can elevate HP’s share in a global sample even if global shipments are led by Lenovo.
• Differential upgrade rates to Windows 11: Some OEM customers (enterprise or consumers) may delay upgrades to Windows 11 for compatibility or policy reasons. If Lenovo buyers upgraded faster to Windows 11 (or Lenovo shipped many Windows 11‑capable new units), then Lenovo’s share of Windows 10 devices sampled would be smaller even while Lenovo’s overall shipment numbers are larger.

All three points combine to produce the observed divergence between telemetry-based Windows 10 OEM rankings and shipment‑based vendor leadership.

---

What this means for readers, IT managers and vendors​

For PC buyers and IT managers​

• Don’t conflate telemetry install share with market strength. If a vendor tops a telemetry report for Windows 10 devices, that says more about who’s using Windows 10 today than about who is selling the most new hardware. Use both shipment data (for procurement trends) and installed‑base data (for compatibility and support planning).
• Plan upgrades by real installed base, not advert samples. Use your own asset management and telemetry tools to measure the OS mix in your organization rather than relying on public ad‑network samples for fleet planning.

For OEMs and channel partners​

• Installed base matters for support and ISV relationships. An OEM with a large active Windows 10 install base must plan extended support, driver compatibility and security patching even as it ships new Windows 11 devices.
• Shipments drive near‑term revenue and go‑to‑market traction. Market share by shipments (Lenovo’s advantage) indicates which brands are winning current purchases and will shape partner inventory and supply‑chain planning.

---

Claims that need caution: partnership rumors and unverifiable statements​

The original report that prompted this analysis mentioned an “Intel partnership with Qualcomm… to enable direct compatibility with X800‑based applications and services on devices powered by its new Snapdragon 86 series processors.” That specific formulation contains technical and corporate claims that are not supported by reputable public records:

• Public, independent reporting and vendor announcements in 2024–2025 document Qualcomm’s push into Windows‑capable chips (Snapdragon X series, Oryon‑based platforms) and Microsoft’s Copilot+ program, but there is no authoritative record of an Intel–Qualcomm partnership to enable “direct compatibility with X800‑based applications” on a hypothetical “Snapdragon 86” product as described. Qualcomm’s work on Snapdragon X series and Microsoft’s Copilot+ initiatives are real, but the contractual or engineering claim about Intel–Qualcomm direct app‑compatibility enabling is not corroborated by major industry outlets or press releases. Treat that statement as unverified until confirmed by primary vendor announcements.
• Whenever you see highly specific technical partnership claims (chip model numbers, cross‑vendor runtime compatibility, or sudden platform convergence), expect official press releases or vendor blog posts to show up. Absent those, label the claim as “not confirmed.” This is a good practice for readers and editors alike.

---

Quick primer: how to compare sources when you see conflicting market headlines​

• Identify the metric. Is the article citing shipments, installed base, revenue, or sample telemetry? Each yields different conclusions.
• Check methodology. Shipment trackers publish methodology notes (sell‑in data, vendor reporting); telemetry vendors publish sampling details (SDK sample size, regional skew).
• Cross‑reference at least two independent sources. For shipment leadership, rely on multiple market trackers (Canalys, IDC, Gartner). For telemetry snapshots, compare AdDuplex against other telemetry where possible and inspect sample disclosures.
• Flag unverifiable technical claims. If no primary vendor statement or multiple reputable outlets corroborate a technical partnership or compatibility promise, treat it as unverified.

---

Short feature list: what AdDuplex tells you (and what it doesn’t)​

• AdDuplex can show:
• Which Windows OS versions are active among its sampled devices.
• OEM and model distribution inside its sample.
• Relative trends month‑to‑month within the ad‑enabled app ecosystem.
• AdDuplex cannot reliably show:
• Exact global vendor market share by shipments.
• Complete enterprise installed base where ad SDKs are absent.
• Definitive regional market leadership outside its sampling footprint.

---

Critical takeaways and risks​

• Takeaway: Both claims—Lenovo is the largest PC manufacturer by shipments and HP has the largest share among sampled Windows 10 devices—can be true simultaneously. They measure different slices of the market and respond to different market forces.
• Strength: Telemetry snapshots like AdDuplex’s are a useful, timely way to track OS versions and what people actually run day‑to‑day, which is valuable for app developers, security teams and OEM support planning.
• Risk: Using a single telemetry report to make broad statements about vendor market share, product success or long‑term trends is risky. Misreading sample data can lead to poor procurement decisions, inaccurate press coverage, or misdirected enterprise upgrade plans. Cross‑check with shipment reports and corporate disclosures.
• Unverifiable tech claims: Treat specific partnership or compatibility claims that are not accompanied by vendor statements with skepticism. These items often propagate from rumor and can mislead readers about platform interoperability and product timelines.

---

Conclusion: what to watch next​

• Watch quarterly shipment trackers (Canalys, IDC, Gartner) for how vendor rankings change as OEMs ship Copilot+ and AI‑capable models; these trackers are the best signal of immediate market momentum.
• Watch telemetry snapshots (AdDuplex and similar) if your interest is the active Windows 10 device base and real‑world OS version distribution—useful for app compatibility and security patch prioritization.
• Treat dramatic technical partnership claims without vendor confirmation as unverified until official announcements appear. Vendor press rooms and primary corporate blog posts are the final arbiter for cross‑company engineering commitments.

---

OEMs continue to chase both replacement cycles and new workloads (AI, hybrid work, edge compute). That dual market dynamic—shipments driven by current product programs and installed base shaped by older fleets—explains why Lenovo can lead in shipments while HP remains the most common Windows 10 OEM in telemetry samples. Understanding which metric you’re reading—and why it matters—turns conflicting headlines into actionable insight for procurement, IT operations and anyone tracking the PC market.

---

OEM device announcements and Windows partner rollouts historically underline this duality: during trade shows and partner events many manufacturers highlight Windows 10 and Windows 11 models across consumer and enterprise lines, which feeds both the installed base and new‑unit shipments recorded by trackers and telemetry alike.

---

Source: Mashdigi Lenovo is the largest PC manufacturer, but the most used Windows 10 PCs are from HP...