Microsoft’s grand wager on agentic AI — the idea that autonomous “digital workers” will transform productivity across enterprises — has run into a sobering dose of market reality: customers aren’t buying everything the company expected, and adoption of Copilot-branded tools is lagging behind some competitors. Recent reporting shows Microsoft adjusted internal growth targets for several AI products after sales teams missed ambitious quotas, a move the company disputes as a mischaracterization of its sales planning. The result is a clear pause in momentum for the very features Microsoft pitched as the next era of work automation.
Microsoft spent 2023–2025 positioning itself as the enterprise front-runner for generative AI. Heavy investment in model partners, cloud infrastructure and product integration tied Microsoft’s Azure and Microsoft 365 ecosystems to a vision of assistants that do more than answer prompts — they act. Copilot for Microsoft 365, Copilot Studio, Azure AI Foundry (sometimes called Foundry), and related tools were marketed as the means to build and deploy agentic systems that could autonomously complete multi-step workflows inside existing business apps.
That strategy made sense on paper: Microsoft paired large language models with deep Windows and Office integration, plus strong relationships with enterprise IT teams. It also invested billions in compute and capacity to host AI workloads. But creating practical, reliable agents that handle messy real-world workflows proved more difficult than demos suggested. Early 2025 benchmarks and enterprise pilots uncovered a wide gulf between the promise of agents and the day-to-day reality in business environments.
The industry should view the current moment not as a failure of AI but as a maturation phase. Benchmarks and enterprise experiences are sharpening the product requirements: agents must be robust in the face of pop-ups, permission errors and ambiguous instructions; they must be auditable and private; and they must integrate seamlessly with the processes that produce real business value.
Microsoft still has strategic advantages — a massive installed base, deep enterprise relationships, and control of key productivity surfaces in Windows and Microsoft 365. Turning those advantages into durable revenue depends on slowing down the hype, doubling down on the engineering and integration work that makes agents predictable, and clarifying expectations with customers. The market will reward demonstrable outcomes over grand proclamations.
For Microsoft, the path forward is not to abandon agentic AI but to retool how those products are developed, sold and supported. The company’s infrastructure investments and integration plays remain powerful levers — but delivering on them requires patient engineering, realistic customer conversations, and packaging that prioritizes reliability and security as much as capability. The era of AI agents is not cancelled; it’s being put on a more realistic timetable, and the winners will be those who close the chasm between demo and dependable production.
Source: extremetech.com Microsoft Scales Back AI Goals Because Almost Nobody Is Using Copilot
Background
Microsoft spent 2023–2025 positioning itself as the enterprise front-runner for generative AI. Heavy investment in model partners, cloud infrastructure and product integration tied Microsoft’s Azure and Microsoft 365 ecosystems to a vision of assistants that do more than answer prompts — they act. Copilot for Microsoft 365, Copilot Studio, Azure AI Foundry (sometimes called Foundry), and related tools were marketed as the means to build and deploy agentic systems that could autonomously complete multi-step workflows inside existing business apps.That strategy made sense on paper: Microsoft paired large language models with deep Windows and Office integration, plus strong relationships with enterprise IT teams. It also invested billions in compute and capacity to host AI workloads. But creating practical, reliable agents that handle messy real-world workflows proved more difficult than demos suggested. Early 2025 benchmarks and enterprise pilots uncovered a wide gulf between the promise of agents and the day-to-day reality in business environments.
What happened inside Microsoft: quotas, growth targets and denials
The report
A December report describing Microsoft’s internal sales targets claimed several Azure sales units cut growth quotas for newer AI products after a year in which salespeople largely failed to hit aggressive goals. Examples cited included Foundry targets that were lowered from 50% growth ambitions to roughly 25% for a given fiscal year, and other units whose targets to “double” Foundry sales were cut in half. The story framed the adjustments as unusual given Microsoft’s recent public rhetoric about the coming age of AI agents.Microsoft’s response
Microsoft pushed back quickly, saying the reporting “inaccurately combines the concepts of growth and sales quotas” and that “aggregate sales quotas for AI products have not been lowered,” arguing the story conflated organizational growth assumptions with individual quota mechanics. That denial calmed some investor reaction but did not fully erase the signal that certain sales teams were revising internal expectations after missed targets. Independent coverage noted the company’s public denial while also highlighting the unusual internal bump-downs cited in the reporting.Why this matters
Adjusting sales growth targets — even at the unit level — is noteworthy for a company that has loudly tied its cloud growth narrative to rapid business adoption of AI. When a vendor of Microsoft’s scale signals that sales teams are resetting expectations for emerging AI products, the broader market reads it as an indicator of slower-than-expected enterprise uptake. That interpretation gained traction because Microsoft’s AI tools are not purely consumer-facing: enterprises buy licenses, run pilots, and evaluate ROI — and when those enterprise buyers push back, Microsoft’s roadmap and revenue mix can be affected more than for a typical SaaS launch.Benchmarks and reality: AI agents fail far more than they succeed
A central technical reason for the slowdown in agent purchases is performance. Independent benchmark projects designed to simulate office work and multistep tasks show that leading agent implementations complete only a minority of assigned tasks without human help.- Carnegie Mellon University’s “TheAgentCompany” environment — a reproducible simulation of office workflows — found that many agents completed only about 24–34% of multi-step, web-and-application tasks. The best-performing model in that benchmark managed roughly 30% completion, with most models scoring far lower.
- Salesforce’s CRMArena-Pro and related evaluations report similar patterns: success rates for single-turn business tasks can be moderate, but multi-turn, context-heavy workflows drop into the ~30–35% success band, leaving most tasks unfinished or only partially complete.
Where agents still shine
Agents are not useless. Benchmarks also show specific strengths:- Short, well-scoped tasks with stable inputs (for example, structured data extraction, templated email drafting or format conversions) achieve much higher completion rates.
- Workflow Execution submodules — deterministic sequences of API calls or data transformations — can perform reliably when the environment is well-instrumented and error-handling is robust.
- When humans collaborate with agents in a human-in-the-loop model, completion rates and utility rise dramatically; some studies show human guidance can lift a marginal agent into a useful collaborator.
Market adoption and the competitive landscape
Who’s winning attention?
Despite Microsoft’s broad Copilot branding, usage and preference metrics show a different competitive shape in the consumer and business-facing chatbot space. Multiple market-intelligence snapshots across late 2025 indicate:- OpenAI’s ChatGPT maintains a dominant share of user interactions and traffic in the generative chatbot category, with figures frequently reported in the high 50–61% range.
- Microsoft Copilot (the umbrella that includes Microsoft 365 Copilot, Windows Copilot and related assistants) is commonly reported around the 14% mark in market-share aggregations.
- Google Gemini has been growing and sits within a few points of Microsoft’s Copilot in many datasets — often reported in the low-to-mid teens (roughly 13–14%), with notable quarter-over-quarter growth.
Why users sometimes prefer ChatGPT or Gemini
- Simplicity and familiarity: ChatGPT’s interface and ubiquity make it the default “go-to” for many knowledge tasks; employees often reach for the fastest path to an answer.
- Perceived capability: Benchmarks and user stories show that for some problem-solving and exploratory tasks, ChatGPT or Gemini’s general-purpose chat experience is perceived as more flexible than an integrated Copilot pane that is optimized for Office tasks.
- Cross-platform access: Browser-based or standalone apps make switching between devices and contexts easier than some integrated enterprise clients.
Enterprise friction: integration, data, pricing and trust
Selling agentic AI to enterprises is not only a technical challenge; it’s an operational and risk-management problem.Data gravity and integration headaches
Enterprises expect tools to work against their data — CRM records, ERP systems, proprietary analytics — and agents that cannot securely, reliably and comprehensively ingest or act on that data are hard to justify. A reported example involved a large customer that scaled back spending on Copilot Studio after encountering difficulties integrating internal data sources into agent workflows. Those kinds of integration failures increase adoption friction and slow buying cycles.Pricing and perceived ROI
Enterprise AI pricing — especially when vendors charge for AI compute or premium model access on top of license fees — creates buyer resistance. For many teams, a partial automation that still requires significant human oversight reduces the ROI and undermines the justification for broad rollouts.Security, compliance and confidentiality
Benchmarks indicate many agents currently lack robust confidentiality awareness. That shortfall raises flags for regulated industries where data handling and audit trails are essential. Until vendors demonstrate mature controls — e.g., fine-grained access, strong verifiers, and explainable audit logs — cautious procurement teams will throttle production deployments.Human workflow displacement concerns
Even when agents work well, their value often accrues to higher-skilled employees who can leverage agents to accelerate analytic work — not to replace frontline roles. That dynamic shifts ROI calculations and can provoke internal friction in organizations expecting labor-substitution benefits.Product-level comparison: Copilot vs ChatGPT vs Gemini
Microsoft Copilot
- Strengths:
- Deep Office and Windows integration.
- Enterprise support through Microsoft’s sales and partner channels.
- On-prem/Azure hosting options for compliance-oriented customers.
- Weaknesses:
- Perceptions of lower “general chat” utility compared to ChatGPT for ad-hoc tasks.
- Reported integration and reliability issues in complex agent workflows.
- Brand complexity: “Copilot” is a family that spans GitHub Copilot, Microsoft 365 Copilot and Windows Copilot, which can confuse buyers.
OpenAI’s ChatGPT
- Strengths:
- Market-leading user engagement and familiarity.
- Rapid iteration and broad plugin ecosystem.
- Strong performance in conversational problem-solving and exploratory tasks.
- Weaknesses:
- Enterprise-grade data controls historically have been a downstream product concern for OpenAI’s offerings (though mitigations and enterprise plans exist).
- Less native Office integration without Microsoft’s embedding.
Google Gemini
- Strengths:
- Tight integration with Google Search and Workspace apps.
- Fast improvements in problem-solving capability and multimodal features.
- Strong developer reach through Google Cloud ecosystem.
- Weaknesses:
- Perceived privacy concerns by some enterprise buyers with Google cloud footprint.
- Less native Windows/Office surface penetration compared with Microsoft.
Strategic implications for Microsoft
Microsoft’s response to the current adoption gap will shape its AI strategy for the next several quarters. Here are the most consequential vectors:- Refocus on reliable primitives, not just flashy agents: Microsoft may recalibrate from marketing broad agent capability to emphasizing modular, reliable services: connectors, verifiers, document understanding, and workflow orchestration pieces that enterprises can trust. This is the classic enterprise play: sell the dependable plumbing first, then layer automation on top.
- Short-term emphasis on human-in-the-loop workflows: Given benchmark realities, the most defensible ROI cases right now are hybrid workflows where agents assist rather than replace. Microsoft’s go-to-market could lean into co-pilot narratives for high-skill roles while postponing promises of autonomous workforce substitution.
- Tighter product messaging and portfolio simplification: Copilot’s expansive brand is powerful but confusing. Consolidating and clarifying what “Copilot” means across Windows, 365 and GitHub could reduce buyer friction.
- Reinforcing partner and enterprise services: Selling AI in large enterprises often requires consulting, integration work and managed services. Microsoft can leverage partners and its own service teams to bridge the gap between demo and production. That is costly, but necessary to convert pilots into recurring revenue.
Risks and long-term considerations
Financial risk and capital intensity
Microsoft’s AI commitments include massive capital expenditure on datacenter capacity and accelerator hardware. If enterprise adoption of higher-margin agent services slows materially, Microsoft could see longer lead times to recoup large infrastructure investments.Competitive risk
Google and OpenAI continue to iterate rapidly. Market-share shifts in user preference — and in developer mindshare — could make it harder for Microsoft to maintain its integration advantage, especially on non-Windows platforms.Reputational risk
Overpromising on agents only to have pilots stall can harm customer trust. Microsoft must manage expectations publicly and internally; otherwise, cycles of hype and disappointment may undermine broader AI initiatives.Operational risk
Agents operating on business data introduce new operational modes: automated changes to documents, schedules, and even financial data. Without mature verification, backtracking and accountability features, enterprises risk operational errors that could have regulatory or legal consequences. Benchmarks showing near-zero confidentiality awareness in some agents underscore this concern.Recommendations for IT leaders and Windows admins
- Prioritize well-scoped pilots: Focus on tightly bounded, high-frequency tasks where data inputs are stable and error modes are predictable.
- Treat agents as enhancements to skilled workers: Staff up for designer/overseer roles rather than expecting costless automation.
- Stress-test integration and data plumbing early: Validate connectors, authentication flows, and error-handling in a staging environment before production.
- Demand testable SLAs and verifiers: If vendors advertise autonomous outcomes, require demonstrable acceptance criteria and rollback procedures.
- Budget for services and customization: Expect integration partners or internal engineering time to be necessary to turn proofs-of-concept into production tools.
The bigger picture
Microsoft’s recent recalibration — whether framed internally as quota adjustments or an honest market correction — is a reminder that enterprise AI adoption is not a single-step sprint. It’s a disciplined process that requires reliable infrastructure, trustworthy data handling, and, crucially, observable ROI. Agentic AI, as a technology category, is advancing, but the empirical evidence shows it is not yet at the point of being a drop-in substitute for many knowledge-worker tasks.The industry should view the current moment not as a failure of AI but as a maturation phase. Benchmarks and enterprise experiences are sharpening the product requirements: agents must be robust in the face of pop-ups, permission errors and ambiguous instructions; they must be auditable and private; and they must integrate seamlessly with the processes that produce real business value.
Microsoft still has strategic advantages — a massive installed base, deep enterprise relationships, and control of key productivity surfaces in Windows and Microsoft 365. Turning those advantages into durable revenue depends on slowing down the hype, doubling down on the engineering and integration work that makes agents predictable, and clarifying expectations with customers. The market will reward demonstrable outcomes over grand proclamations.
Conclusion
The headline that “almost nobody is using Copilot” simplifies a more nuanced reality: agents are being trialed widely, but the majority of multi-step, agentic deployments are failing to finish work autonomously at the rates Microsoft and others had forecast. That performance gap has prompted sales teams and analysts to reassess growth expectations and has created an opening for rivals who offer compelling, easy-to-use alternatives.For Microsoft, the path forward is not to abandon agentic AI but to retool how those products are developed, sold and supported. The company’s infrastructure investments and integration plays remain powerful levers — but delivering on them requires patient engineering, realistic customer conversations, and packaging that prioritizes reliability and security as much as capability. The era of AI agents is not cancelled; it’s being put on a more realistic timetable, and the winners will be those who close the chasm between demo and dependable production.
Source: extremetech.com Microsoft Scales Back AI Goals Because Almost Nobody Is Using Copilot