Technology growth to come to a screaming halt

Discussion in 'General Computing' started by kemical, Dec 19, 2010.

  1. kemical

    kemical Windows Forum Admin
    Staff Member Premium Supporter Microsoft MVP

    Aug 28, 2007
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    Huge changes in software and microchips needed
    A new report from the US National Research Council has warned that technology growth will grind to a halt unless a new generation of hardware and software is developed. The catchy-titled “The Future of Computing Performance: Game over or next level?” is packed full of bad news for the industry.

    While microprocessors improved in speed by a factor of 10,000 during the 1980s and 1990s, two obstacles could mean computing power hitting a wall in the next decade, the report said.

    While transistors have become ever smaller and more tightly packed, the speed at which microchips are clocked has levelled off, reaching around 3 gigahertz in 2005. That's because such fast chips generate too much heat to be used in smartphones and personal computers.

    This plateau will kill Moore's law. While manufacturers have been fabricating two, four or eight microprocessor cores on a single chip to get around this hurdle, it is not enough the report warns. This is because the power efficiency of present transistors cannot be improved much more, and performance "will become limited by power consumption within a decade". It needs a yet-to-be-invented transistor architecture to save it.

    Software is still behind hardware developments with multicore chips still not properly factored into designs. Software has to be designed to execute multiple tasks in parallel, rather than serially and few programs are up to this challenge.

    But the report warns that converting the vast majority of software, written for serial execution, to work efficiently in parallel mode will be exceedingly difficult. It needs new software-engineering processes and tools. Programmers will need to be retrained, it warned.

    Ref: Technology growth to come to a screaming halt
  2. Highwayman

    Highwayman Extraordinary Member

    Jun 3, 2009
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    far as CPUs go, theres little overhead to worry about, soon as 64bit gets capped, they just need to jump to 128bit or 256bit... no big deal. As for software, since thats written by humans it will always be prone to human error. I'm quite surprised that CPU companies still worry about CPU size on desktop chips... wouldn't bother me in the least having the cpu the side of a gpu as long as its fast cold and quiet
    #2 Highwayman, Dec 19, 2010
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2010

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