US PC Shipments Dip in Q2 2025 as Commercial Demand Rises and AI PCs Grow

PC shipments to the United States cooled in Q2 2025, slipping 1.4% year‑on‑year to about 18.6 million units, even as the commercial sector expanded and vendors doubled down on marketing AI-capable PCs ahead of the Windows 10 end‑of‑support deadline.

Background​

The broader story behind the soft headline lies in two overlapping dynamics: tactical inventory management by vendors in response to tariff volatility, and structural demand differences between business buyers and consumers as the market enters a Windows refresh and AI transition.
Vendors shipped aggressively in early 2025 to front‑load inventory ahead of tariff changes and reciprocal trade measures, creating an inventory overhang that depressed sell‑through in the middle of the year. Analysts flagged that early sell‑in activity lifted Q1 volumes but left the channel with stock to clear in Q2.
At the same time, enterprise procurement remained a relative bright spot. The commercial segment in the US recorded low‑single‑digit growth in Q2, driven by fleet refreshes timed to the Windows 10 end‑of‑support (EoS) and rising interest in systems built to support local AI workloads. Canalys and other market watchers expect this commercial demand to be the primary growth engine through late 2025 and into 2026 as organizations migrate to Windows 11 and evaluate AI-capable PCs.
Microsoft’s official lifecycle calendar confirms that Windows 10 will reach end of support on October 14, 2025, and Microsoft is promoting upgrade and Extended Security Update (ESU) options for customers that need more time. That deadline is now a fixed pivot point for corporate refresh planning and vendor marketing.

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What the Q2 numbers tell us​

Shipments vs. demand: a two‑speed market​

The Q2 decline in total shipments masks a two‑speed market:

• Commercial demand is rising moderately as IT shops prioritize security and modern management capabilities, pushing fleet refresh cycles and uptake of Windows 11‑ready devices. This segment grew in Q2 and remains the primary near‑term driver for OEMs.
• Consumer demand is softer. Persistent inflation, weak labor indicators and higher prices (including potential tariff pass‑through) have made many households more cautious about premium electronics purchases; consumers increasingly defer replacement until devices fail.

This split explains why overall shipment volumes can stagnate even while business spending on new PC fleets remains healthy.

Inventory normalization after tariff‑led front‑loading​

Multiple reports document a surge in vendor sell‑in in Q1 2025 as OEMs and channel partners anticipated new or increased duties on goods imported from China and other markets. That rush created elevated channel inventories that subsequently reduced order activity in Q2 as resellers worked through stock. Market analysts warned the spike was tactical and that 2025 would see modest overall growth as inventory normalizes.

Forecasts: modest growth ahead driven by a Windows refresh and AI​

Canalys and other forecasters expect low‑single‑digit annual growth for US PC shipments in 2025 and 2026, with much of that growth tied to Windows 11 transitions and sales of machines marketed for AI workloads. Canalys has repeatedly forecast that AI‑capable PCs will form a meaningful share of shipments and will be a central messaging point for OEMs over the next two years.

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AI-capable PCs: marketing reality vs. integration reality​

The product trend​

“AI‑capable PCs” — machines with on‑board neural accelerators, stronger integrated GPUs, or system architectures tuned for local inference and Copilot‑class experiences — are at the center of OEM messaging. Canalys projects a rapid increase in AI‑capable shipments globally, and vendors are packaging these devices with software optimizations and Microsoft’s Copilot messaging to differentiate higher‑margin SKUs.
Key vendor claims focus on:

• Faster local inference for generative AI tasks (text, summarization, image generation).
• Improved privacy and latency by keeping inference on device.
• Productivity gains tied to Copilot and AI‑driven workflows.

These features are being sold as reasons to accelerate upgrades — particularly in commercial environments where security, manageability, and productivity gains can be quantified.

Adoption gap: pilot purgatory and the value‑add problem​

Despite marketing momentum, enterprise adoption is uneven. Canalys and trade reporting indicate that many large organizations have doubled down on pilots and experimentation rather than broad rollouts. The Census Business Trends and Outlook Survey and related analysis show use of AI in business rising but still concentrated — adoption rates are increasing from low single digits to higher but not yet ubiquitous levels across sectors. That pattern creates what analysts call pilot purgatory: investments in experiments that do not scale into production deployments quickly enough to justify wide hardware upgrades.
Vendors must therefore make the business case for AI‑capable hardware by demonstrating measurable workflow improvements and integration with existing management stacks, not just benchmark TOPS numbers or marketing language.

The technical thresholds: what actually makes a PC “AI‑capable”?​

The term “AI‑capable” covers a broad range of hardware and software abilities. In practice, buyers should expect at least:

• A dedicated NPU or accelerator (or a sufficiently powerful GPU) that can handle local inference workloads.
• Firmware and driver support for optimized frameworks (ONNX Runtime, vendor SDKs).
• Integration with management and security tools (MDM, enterprise endpoint protection) to allow IT to govern AI features.
• Adequate thermal and power design to sustain higher compute loads without throttling.

Not all machines marketed as AI‑capable will meet these thresholds; buyers should validate specific workload performance rather than rely on marketing labels. Multiple reports show that only a subset of marketed AI systems hit the high‑end local inference specifications that some enterprises expect.

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Windows 10 end-of-support: the catalyst and the constraint​

Microsoft’s published lifecycle makes the calendar clear: Windows 10 support ends October 14, 2025. After that date, Windows 10 will no longer receive routine security updates unless devices are enrolled in Extended Security Updates (ESU), which Microsoft has positioned as a short‑term bridge for holdouts. That timeline is a primary reason many organizations planned fleet refreshes in 2025.

What EoS actually means for enterprises and consumers​

• For organizations, EoS is a hard deadline for security posture and compliance planning. Enterprises that cannot migrate to Windows 11 immediately can procure ESU coverage or adopt mitigations, but most larger firms are scheduling Windows 11 migrations or hardware replacements.
• For consumers, the calculus is different. Many households will defer replacement until devices fail or performance becomes unacceptable — a behavior documented in consumer surveys and reflected in the weaker consumer segment performance. Microsoft is encouraging upgrade and ESU options, but uptake among consumers is expected to lag corporate plans.

Microsoft’s messaging and the Copilot+ funnel​

Microsoft and OEMs are bundling Copilot experiences and Copilot+ hardware messaging with Windows 11 promotion. Copilot+ machines — the premium top tier of AI‑capable PCs designed for local acceleration and optimized Copilot experiences — are being pushed as an upgrade incentive. Analysts caution that while Copilot integrations are appealing, price and demonstrable operational benefits will determine how quickly organizations choose higher‑end Copilot+ systems over standard Windows 11 devices.

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Tariffs, supply chains and pricing: headwinds to recovery​

Tariff policy and resulting trade frictions were a major influence on early 2025 shipment patterns. OEMs front‑loaded shipments to mitigate exposure to higher import duties and changing de minimis rules; those same trade policies are likely to keep pressure on margins and consumer prices if tariffs persist or are reimposed in different forms. Reuters and trade reporting documented the tariff‑led surge in Q1 and its chilling effect on later quarters as channels worked down inventory.
The tariff environment adds three practical complications:

• Pricing volatility — higher or uncertain duties can prompt OEMs to raise MSRP or compress margins.
• Supply chain reconfiguration — some vendors are accelerating diversification away from Chinese manufacturing to Vietnam, Mexico or U.S. partners, but retooling takes time and costs money.
• Channel timing risk — sell‑in spikes to avoid tariffs create boom‑and‑bust within the year, complicating forecasting and inventory management.

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Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and risks (SWOT) — sector breakdown​

Strengths​

• Commercial resilience: Businesses have a clearer upgrade rationale (security, management, productivity) and are funding PC refreshes tied to Windows 10 EoS.
• OEM momentum on AI hardware: Vendors are investing in NPU-enabled SKUs and marketing Copilot experiences, creating product differentiation and higher ASP potential.

Weaknesses​

• Pilot purgatory: Many large organizations are experimenting with AI but not yet deploying at scale, reducing immediate demand for expensive AI‑first hardware.
• Consumer conservatism: Macroeconomic pressures are dampening consumer willingness to buy premium devices, extending refresh cycles.

Opportunities​

• Quantifiable AI ROI: Vendors that help customers measure productivity or cost‑savings from local AI will unlock procurement budgets.
• Service and software monetization: OEMs and channel partners can pair hardware with managed AI services, security, and lifecycle programs to build recurring revenue.

Risks​

• Tariff and policy shocks: Further trade actions could force last‑minute adjustments and price changes that erode demand.
• Security and compliance exposure post‑EoS: Organizations that delay upgrades without ESU risk becoming non‑compliant or exposed to vulnerabilities.

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Tactical guidance: what CIOs, VARs, OEMs and consumers should do now​

For CIOs and procurement leads (enterprise)​

• Prioritize risk assessments for Windows 10 endpoints and map migration waves by business unit and application criticality.
• Pilot AI hardware on targeted, high‑value workflows where ROI can be measured (sales enablement, customer support, document automation).
• Insist on workload benchmarks — evaluate local inference throughput and real business metrics, not marketing TOPS alone.
• Lock in ESU or migration timelines for any non‑upgradable devices to avoid coverage gaps after October 14, 2025.

For OEMs and channel partners​

• Simplify the buyer journey. Position a small number of clear, needs‑based SKUs (consumer, business standard, Copilot+/AI) and provide clear migration paths and trade‑in programs.
• Bundle measured AI outcomes with devices (analytics, pilot planning, training) to shorten the sale cycle and move customers out of pilot purgatory.
• Manage channel inventory actively and provide transparent cadence forecasts to resellers to avoid knock‑on Q‑over‑Q volatility.

For consumer buyers​

• If your device runs Windows 10 and you need a tolerant upgrade path, check Microsoft’s official guidance and ESU eligibility; budget for migration if you rely on secure, supported software.
• If your PC still meets your needs, waiting until replacement is necessary remains financially rational for many households; when you do buy, evaluate whether AI features deliver relevant benefits for your typical usage.

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Cross‑checks and cautionary notes​

• The Canalys Q2 shipment figures and the 18.6 million units figure are widely reported and align across market commentary and press coverage for Q2 2025. At the same time, forecast figures (e.g., “AI‑capable PCs to reach 40% of global shipments in 2025”) come from analyst models and should be treated as best‑estimate scenarios that depend heavily on supply chain, pricing and user adoption variables.
• The U.S. Census Business Trends and Outlook Survey documents rising AI use by firms — showing early adoption moving from low single‑digit percentages in late 2023 toward higher figures by 2024 and 2025 — but precise phrasing such as “more than doubled in the last two years” and “50% increase in usage this year” appear in analyst commentary rather than in one‑line Census language. The Census data do corroborate a fast‑rising trend, but readers should treat rounded promotional numbers from vendors or analysts with careful scrutiny and seek the raw BTOS tables for firm‑level estimates. Flagged as partly analytic inference rather than a verbatim Census claim.
• Tariff narratives are complex and evolving. Reports of aggressive reciprocal tariff actions and temporary duty windows drove much of the Q1 rush; the ultimate impact on retail pricing and long‑term sourcing depends on policy choices that remain subject to diplomatic negotiation and USTR action. Companies should model several scenarios rather than rely on a single tariff outlook.

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The near‑term outlook: measured optimism with operational caveats​

The next 12‑18 months look like a period of cautious, managed growth rather than a sharp recovery. Key factors to watch:

• The pace of Windows 11 migrations after the October 14, 2025 cutoff. If enterprises accelerate mass migration to avoid ESU costs or compliance headaches, 2026 could see a clearer uplift in shipments.
• Whether AI pilots convert into production use cases that materially change procurement cycles. Vendors that help customers quantify value will win.
• How trade and tariff policy evolves. New or prolonged duties could delay or dent consumer upgrades and affect OEM margin calculus.

In short: expect modest growth underpinned by commercial replacements and targeted AI investments, but tempered by consumer prudence and policy uncertainty.

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Final analysis: why this matters for Windows enthusiasts and IT buyers​

The Q2 softness is not a market collapse — it is a market in transition. Commercial sector growth is the reliable engine for near‑term PC demand, anchored to Windows 10 EoS and the tangible productivity needs of organizations. Meanwhile, the AI‑capable PC narrative presents both opportunity and risk: it’s a chance to modernize endpoints and embed AI into workflows, but only if vendors and integrators can translate marketing into measurable operational value.
For Windows power users, IT pros and channel partners, the practical takeaway is straightforward:

• Treat Windows 10 EoS as a real inflection point with fixed calendar consequences. Plan migrations, ESU purchases, or hardware replacements with concrete timelines.
• Don’t buy AI hardware for the sake of a label. Demand benchmarks, pilot‑to‑production plans, and clear ROI.
• Keep an eye on tariff developments and inventory signals from major OEMs — sudden policy moves can change pricing and supply dynamics quickly.

The PC market in late 2025 will reward clarity: vendors that simplify choice and demonstrate measurable AI value, IT teams that pair thoughtful migration sequencing with pilot rigor, and consumers who buy when device performance or security imperatives make the economics clear. Those who navigate these choices with discipline will extract the most value from the Windows 11 transition and the nascent era of device‑level AI.

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Source: Cyprus Mail AI-capable PCs drive commercial sector growth in the US