Windows 10 End of Support 2025: ESU Options, Copilot+ PCs, and AI Antitrust

Microsoft is facing a fresh legal challenge over the looming end of support for Windows 10, with a San Diego lawsuit accusing the company of “forced obsolescence” and a strategy to “monopolize the generative AI market” as Windows 11 and Copilot+ PCs become the default path forward. The complaint, filed by California resident Lawrence Klein, seeks a court order compelling Microsoft to continue free Windows 10 updates until usage falls below 10% of all Windows installs—an extraordinary remedy that would delay a transition scheduled to culminate on October 14, 2025. (courthousenews.com, support.microsoft.com)

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Overview​

Microsoft has long signposted that Windows 10 will reach end of support on October 14, 2025. After that date, Windows 10 PCs will still boot and run, but they will no longer receive security fixes, feature updates, or technical support—a combination that elevates cyber‑risk over time. For consumers who need more runway, Microsoft introduced a Windows 10 Extended Security Updates (ESU) option that adds one more year of security updates through October 13, 2026; organizations can buy up to three years of ESU coverage, extending protection to October 10, 2028. (support.microsoft.com, microsoft.com, learn.microsoft.com)
Windows 11, released on October 5, 2021, is now the company’s mainstream OS. In July 2025, StatCounter’s data showed Windows 11 finally overtaking Windows 10, with several outlets reporting Windows 11 at roughly 50–52% and Windows 10 around 45%—still hundreds of millions of active machines. (blogs.windows.com, thurrott.com)

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What the lawsuit claims​

The Courthouse News complaint argues that Microsoft’s Windows 10 wind‑down is designed to push customers into buying new, AI‑ready hardware—namely, Windows 11 “Copilot+ PCs” equipped with an NPU (neural processing unit). It suggests that this shift jeopardizes the security of laggards who remain on Windows 10 and frames the plan as part of a broader attempt to dominate generative AI. The plaintiff asks the court to force Microsoft to keep issuing Windows 10 updates at no charge until the OS drops below 10% share. Microsoft did not comment to Courthouse News at publication time.

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What end of support actually means—and the real ESU options​

Ending “support” doesn’t brick your PC; it ends free security and quality updates. Microsoft is offering two distinct ESU paths:

• For individuals on Windows 10 version 22H2, one additional year of security updates runs through October 13, 2026. Enrollment can be free if you sync PC settings to the cloud or redeem 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points, or it costs $30 as a one‑time purchase. (support.microsoft.com, microsoft.com)
• For organizations, ESU can be renewed annually for up to three years: $61 (Year 1), $122 (Year 2), $244 (Year 3) per device, with coverage ending October 10, 2028. Discounts apply for certain cloud‑managed scenarios, and Windows 365/AVD entitlements include ESU at no additional cost. (learn.microsoft.com, techcommunity.microsoft.com)

Important nuance: some reporting has conflated the consumer ESU (one year) with enterprise ESU (up to three years). Similarly, Microsoft will keep issuing security updates for Microsoft 365 Apps on Windows 10 until October 10, 2028, but that is separate from the Windows OS ESU program.

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The AI angle: Copilot vs. Copilot+ PCs​

Windows 11 integrates Microsoft’s Copilot assistant, and a preview of Copilot also reached some Windows 10 systems in 2023. Those experiences are cloud‑backed and don’t require an NPU. By contrast, the new class of Copilot+ PCs reserve certain on‑device, low‑latency AI features—like improved Studio Effects, Cocreator, and Recall (preview)—for machines with an NPU capable of at least 40 TOPS, alongside other specs such as 16 GB RAM and 256 GB storage. That hardware bar means many older Windows 10 PCs cannot deliver these local AI experiences. (techcommunity.microsoft.com, support.microsoft.com)

• Copilot (cloud) can run on standard Windows 11 PCs and, in limited form, on Windows 10.
• Copilot+ features require an NPU ≥ 40 TOPS and are “exclusive” to Copilot+ PCs per Microsoft guidance. (microsoft.com, learn.microsoft.com)

The lawsuit’s contention that AI “needs” NPUs is partly right for these on‑device features but does not fully capture that cloud‑based Copilot remains available without one.

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Market and environmental stakes​

Strict Windows 11 hardware requirements—particularly TPM 2.0 and a supported CPU list—leave a sizeable cohort of PCs ineligible for an in‑place upgrade. Analysts at Canalys warned in late 2023 that as many as 240 million Windows 10 PCs could be pushed toward e‑waste by October 2025; the firm dramatized that volume as a “600 km taller than the moon” laptop stack. While some of those devices can be recycled or repurposed, the loss of free security updates depresses refurbish/resale value. (economictimes.indiatimes.com, ec-mea.com)
At the same time, Windows 11’s approach has clearly accelerated migration in 2025. StatCounter’s July data indicates Windows 11 finally became the most‑used Windows version, aligning with the EoS deadline pressure.

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Strengths in Microsoft’s position​

• Security posture: Microsoft has telegraphed the cutoff for years and repeatedly warns that using an unsupported OS raises risk, which supports its decision to end free updates as planned.
• Transitional safety valves: Consumer ESU (including free enrollment paths) through October 13, 2026, and enterprise ESU through October 10, 2028, blunt claims of an abrupt cliff. Cloud entitlements for ESU further mitigate impact for organizations in Windows 365 or Azure Virtual Desktop. (microsoft.com, learn.microsoft.com)
• Product segmentation clarity: Microsoft documents Copilot+ as a hardware‑defined tier with specific NPU requirements, a distinction that clarifies why some AI features are not brought to legacy devices.

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Risks and weak points​

• Hardware exclusion optics: Tying flagship AI features to new NPU‑equipped devices fuels “forced upgrade” narratives and invites scrutiny from policymakers focused on competition, sustainability, and right‑to‑repair. Canalys’ e‑waste forecast underscores the reputational risk.
• Mixed messaging in the ecosystem: Articles and community posts sometimes conflate consumer and enterprise ESU timelines and prices, breeding confusion. Microsoft’s own support pages help, but the complexity creates room for legal and public‑relations friction.
• Antitrust framing: While Microsoft can argue that Copilot+ is a pro‑innovation hardware class, plaintiffs may try to analogize to past tying behavior. However, U.S. monopolization law requires both monopoly power in a properly defined market and exclusionary conduct that harms the competitive process—not merely hard business choices or product evolution. That is a high bar.

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Legal outlook: how strong is the “AI monopolization” claim?​

Under Section 2 of the Sherman Act, a plaintiff must show (1) monopoly power in a relevant market and (2) willful acquisition or maintenance of that power via exclusionary conduct. Courts caution against penalizing “superior product, business acumen, or historic accident.” Even if “Windows PCs with Copilot+ features” were posited as a market, Microsoft would argue that cloud‑based Copilot and third‑party AI tools remain available on non‑NPU systems, and that the on‑device AI tier is an innovation‑driven product segmentation—not unlawful exclusion.
California consumer‑protection avenues (e.g., UCL/CLRA) can target unfair or deceptive practices, but those claims likewise depend on showing misleading conduct or harm—not simply a product lifecycle reaching its planned end. The requested injunction—free Windows 10 support until sub‑10% market share—would be extraordinary and burdensome to supervise.

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What Windows 10 users can do now​

Whether you’re an individual holdout or managing a fleet, there are pragmatic paths to stay secure and plan migrations:

• Check eligibility and inventory hardware.
• Use PC Health Check to confirm Windows 11 compatibility; verify TPM 2.0 and CPU support.
• Enroll in ESU where appropriate.
• Individuals: enroll via Settings for a free path (settings sync or Rewards) or a $30 option, extending coverage to October 13, 2026.
• Organizations: weigh ESU costs against replacement and management overhead; year‑over‑year doubling strongly incentivizes faster migration.
• Consider Windows 365 or Azure Virtual Desktop.
• These cloud options include ESU entitlements and can bridge older endpoints through the Windows 10 sunset while delivering Windows 11 experiences.
• For AI‑heavy workflows, plan for Copilot+ PCs.
• Local, low‑latency features require an NPU ≥ 40 TOPS—this is a hardware refresh discussion, not a software toggle.
• Evaluate third‑party stopgaps with caution.
• Micro‑patching vendors promise post‑EoS fixes, but they’re unofficial and not a replacement for a supported OS. Use only after risk assessment and with layered defenses.

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Background: why so many PCs are stuck​

Windows 11’s security‑centric requirements—TPM 2.0, Secure Boot, and supported CPUs—exclude a broad swath of otherwise functional Windows 10 machines. Microsoft maintains these are non‑negotiable for a modern security baseline, a stance that makes sense technically but heightens the upgrade‑or‑else dynamic as Windows 10 nears its sunset.

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Bottom line for Windows customers​

• Windows 10 end of support arrives on October 14, 2025. Standard updates end, risk rises, and ESU becomes your safety net.
• Individuals can extend security updates for one more year through October 13, 2026, via free enrollment options or a $30 purchase. Businesses can buy up to three years of ESU, ending October 10, 2028, but escalating per‑device pricing favors rapid migration. (microsoft.com, learn.microsoft.com)
• The lawsuit highlights real-world pain—costs, e‑waste, and AI FOMO—but its antitrust theory must clear a high legal threshold. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s documented timelines and ESU programs make a court‑ordered multi‑year extension unlikely. (courthousenews.com, justice.gov)

The Windows 10 sunset is no longer hypothetical. Treat it like any other end‑of‑life event: secure the gap with ESU where necessary, make measured hardware decisions—especially if Copilot+ features matter—and move steadily toward a supported Windows 11 posture. That pragmatic approach will outlast any courtroom drama.

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Source: Courthouse News Service Microsoft sued for discontinuing Windows 10 support