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As Microsoft approaches the sunset date for Windows 10 support in October 2025, the Windows ecosystem is experiencing a historic shift: the long-awaited widespread adoption of Windows 11 is finally materializing, and the gap between the two operating systems has never been narrower. After a slow and sometimes hesitant rollout, recent figures reveal that Windows 11 now commands a strong foothold in the global PC market—an accomplishment that, up until 2024, many industry watchers speculated might never fully happen. This article examines the real-world numbers behind Windows 11’s growth, the stubborn resistance of Windows 10, the technical and financial challenges tied to migration, and what it all means for consumers, businesses, and IT professionals as a deadline looms and as Microsoft reshapes the Windows landscape for a new era of innovation and security.

A sleek laptop on a desk with dual blue-themed screens, one showing a calendar and the other a Windows wallpaper.
Market Share Dynamics: Windows 11 vs. Windows 10​

Recent data from Statcounter and other analytics firms underscore the accelerating transition. By April 2025, Windows 11 had captured approximately 43.7% of the Windows market, up from just 26.2% the year prior. Windows 10, meanwhile, fell from nearly 70% to under 53%, marking a loss of almost 17 percentage points in a single year. Although Windows 10 still holds a slim majority, the gap is shrinking rapidly and, in some regions—such as the United Kingdom—Windows 11 has already overtaken its predecessor, with reports indicating Windows 11 at 50.4% and Windows 10 at 48.2%. Canada is on a similar trajectory, with the two versions nearly in parity.
Such growth is not accidental. It stems from a confluence of pressures, incentives, and the simple reality that Windows 10 will soon be deemed insecure for unpatched systems. Microsoft has been proactive, launching campaigns earlier in 2025 to encourage users—particularly business customers on eligible hardware—to make the leap before time runs out.

Why Did Windows 11 Adoption Lag?​

Despite its recent spike, Windows 11 initially lagged far behind Windows 10 in terms of adoption velocity. One crucial reason is the hardware compatibility barrier. Windows 11 requires TPM 2.0 and Secure Boot, features only present in relatively modern computers. According to market surveys, up to 40% of existing Windows 10 PCs may be ineligible for upgrade due to these requirements—forcing businesses and consumers to invest in entirely new systems if they wish to migrate.
Even for those with compatible hardware, the “must-upgrade” message has met resistance. Many organizations cite the cost, the effort required for data migration and compatibility testing, and the relatively incremental nature of the new features—Snap Layouts, Copilot, a centered taskbar, and performance tweaks—as reasons to delay upgrading. Unlike prior leaps (such as Windows 7 to Windows 10), the tangible day-one benefits of Windows 11 can seem modest. This, compounded by a perception that Windows 10 still “just works,” has slackened momentum.
For casual users, technical hurdles such as enabling or installing TPM modules and switching BIOS modes are daunting. For IT pros, the upgrade can involve significant retraining, hardware audits, and scheduling downtime.

The Security and Productivity Imperative​

Yet for all the inconvenience, the business case for upgrading is mounting by the week—especially on grounds of security and support. Microsoft’s official stance is clear: after October 14, 2025, both the Windows 10 operating system and bundled Microsoft 365 applications (Word, Excel, Outlook, etc.) will lose security update support if run on Windows 10, pushing users onto a potentially risky island of unpatched vulnerabilities. Reports suggest that outdated and unsupported operating systems are three times more likely to be successfully attacked.
This is a lesson learned previously with the protracted retirements of Windows 7 and Windows XP, where persistent users faced an uptick in targeted ransomware and malware attacks. Off-the-shelf antivirus software is not a panacea; new vulnerabilities may go unpatched, threatening business continuity, personal data, and regulatory compliance.
Beyond risk mitigation, Windows 11 offers concrete improvements in system hardening: requiring TPM 2.0 as a root of trust, leveraging Secure Boot, integrating modern encryption (AES), and offering default activation of Windows Hello biometric authentication and BitLocker encryption. These steps reflect the growing cybercrime landscape and Microsoft’s strategic bet that baseline hardware security must be mandatory, not optional, in a connected world.
For business users, especially those in regulated industries (finance, healthcare, government), migration is not merely recommended but likely essential to meeting compliance standards.

Microsoft’s Extended Security Update (ESU) Program​

Knowing that a substantial installed base will resist or be unable to upgrade for hardware reasons, Microsoft has revived its Extended Security Updates (ESU) program for Windows 10. This service allows organizations and, this time, even individual consumers, to receive critical patches for three years beyond the cutoff—but at a steep price. The expected fee starts at around $30 per PC for the first year, with the price doubling each subsequent year. While this provides breathing room, it stands as a clear, fiscal pressure for users to accelerate migration and not treat ESU as a sustainable long-term solution.
It is widely understood in the IT industry that ESU should be a last resort, one that buys time for organizations busily certifying new hardware or resolving legacy software incompatibilities.

The Push for Copilot+ PCs and AI Integration​

The conversation around upgrading to Windows 11 is increasingly entwined with Microsoft’s next-generation vision for the PC: Copilot+ devices. These new AI-powered laptops and desktops, based on a new class of CPUs with powerful NPUs (Neural Processing Units), are being promoted as the best way to experience the full value of Windows 11’s forthcoming capabilities.
Features like real-time transcription, advanced local AI models (for summarizing content, upscaling images, or instant translation), and the “Recall” timeline search—while sometimes controversial due to privacy concerns—are exclusive or perform best on Copilot+ hardware. Microsoft’s marketing now paints these machines as “up to 58% faster than the MacBook Air M3,” although such claims should be approached skeptically until independently benchmarked.
This aggressive hardware push, coupled with in-OS “nags” and full-screen upgrade prompts seen on existing Windows 10 devices, has drawn mixed reactions. While some see it as a necessary nudge, others view it as intrusive, especially when new PC purchases are required for a “complete” Windows 11 experience.

Migration Obstacles: The Reality for Consumers and Businesses​

The most significant hurdles to mass migration remain hardware and budgetary constraints. Analysts estimate that as much as 40% of the current base of Windows 10 PCs (including millions in schools and small businesses) cannot upgrade to Windows 11 due to lack of TPM 2.0 or unsupported processors. This means many users must either pay for ESU, risk running unsupported Windows 10, or invest in new hardware. For small businesses, the cost includes not just devices, but also IT manpower, user retraining, and workflow interruptions.
Additionally, some users have cited functional regressions with Windows 11, particularly concerning the taskbar, frequent problematic updates, and the presence of additional advertising and telemetry. These have further dampened enthusiasm, especially among power users or organizations deeply embedded in Windows 10 workflows.
Suggestions from analysts and community experts for smoothing adoption include restoring legacy features, ensuring update stability, reducing ads, and keeping Windows 11 upgrades free for longer. However, Microsoft appears focused on advancing its vision—cloud-centric, AI-driven, and hardware-enforced security—even at the risk of alienating some long-time customers.

The User’s Dilemma: Upgrade, Pay, or Risk It All?​

For those considering their next step, the decision boils down to three options:
  • Upgrade to Windows 11 if hardware permits, ensuring the best long-term security, software compatibility, and access to Microsoft’s evolving AI ecosystem.
  • Purchase Extended Security Updates for Windows 10, buying time for a year or two (or three), but at increasing cost. This is a stopgap, not a solution.
  • Remain on Windows 10 without support, a choice strongly discouraged for all but the most isolated systems, given the inevitable growth in security risk.
For individuals whose PCs do not meet Windows 11’s requirements, Microsoft’s PC Health Check tool can be used to confirm eligibility. If necessary, users can consider running Windows 11 on unsupported hardware via workarounds, but this forgoes official support, stability, and update guarantees.

Future Trends and Broader Industry Context​

Microsoft’s phased retirements are not unique in the industry. Apple, for example, gradually discontinues OS support across hardware generations, encouraging users to buy new MacBooks and iMacs to stay current. Google’s ChromeOS, too, has set lifespan limits for device updates. What sets Microsoft apart is the sheer scale of its install base and the diversity of hardware still in use worldwide.
At the same time, the push for hardware-based security and native AI workflows is likely to become the standard, both to address the growing threat surface and to enable new user experiences not possible in legacy environments.

Privacy, AI, and the Road Ahead​

While Windows 11’s AI-powered features, particularly on Copilot+ PCs, have won praise for capability and speed, they have also sparked concerns about user privacy. The Recall feature, which logs local activity for later search, is encrypted and controlled by Windows Hello authentication, but critics worry about unintended data exposure. Microsoft has responded with additional privacy controls, but the debate is likely to continue as these features develop.

Conclusion: Prepare for the Deadline​

As October 2025 approaches, the migration to Windows 11 has shifted from an IT “nice-to-have” to an urgent priority for millions. With Windows 11 now approaching parity with Windows 10 in market share—and overtaking it in some regions—the pressure to upgrade will only intensify.
For users, the takeaway is clear: Begin preparing now. Check eligibility, plan hardware upgrades, and start testing workflows on Windows 11. For organizations, the task is more involved: conduct audits, allocate budgets, test software compatibility, and train staff.
Delaying further brings only short-lived relief, as post-support Windows 10 will become both increasingly insecure and, through the absence of updates to Office and other critical applications, functionally obsolete. While Microsoft’s drive to advance security and user experience is compelling, its messaging—sometimes aggressive, sometimes muddled—leaves users to weigh their unique needs against the new Windows reality. The future of the Windows ecosystem is being forged today, and readiness for this transition will define organizational resiliency and individual computing security for years to come.

Source: techzine.eu Windows 11 is finally catching up with Windows 10
 

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