Windows 11’s recent lead over its predecessor proved to be fragile: Statcounter’s August snapshot shows Windows 11 slipping back below the 50% mark while Windows 10 recovered some ground, yet the newer OS still holds a larger share overall after overtaking Windows 10 in July. (gs.statcounter.com, windowscentral.com)
Microsoft’s two most-used desktop operating systems have lived in a slow-motion duel ever since Windows 11 launched in October 2021. Windows 10 dominated for most of the last decade, but 2025 has been the year the balance finally shifted — briefly and then unevenly — as the looming October 14, 2025 end-of-support deadline for Windows 10 forced households, businesses, and OEM channels to accelerate migrations. The July surge that pushed Windows 11 ahead of Windows 10 was widely reported across industry outlets and is attributable to that deadline plus a run of hardware refreshes and preinstalled Windows 11 machines. (windowscentral.com, techpowerup.com)
Statcounter’s monthly panel — the one most outlets use for quick month‑to‑month comparisons — is the principal public source for this story. It tracks pageviews across its network of sites and publishes monthly breakdowns for desktop Windows versions; its August dashboard shows Windows 11 at roughly 49.0% and Windows 10 at about 45.7%. Those percentages are the basis for the recent coverage that described a drop for Windows 11 in August after the July high. (gs.statcounter.com)
That said, two caveats are essential:
That pause is pragmatic for many households, but it’s temporary. ESU is a bridge, not a destination: security updates through October 2026 buy breathing space but not indefinite protection. For readers and IT teams, the sensible course is to treat this moment as a planning window — verify compatibility, inventory critical apps, and decide whether to enroll, upgrade, or schedule a phased migration. Meanwhile, watch the next Statcounter releases and Microsoft’s rollout notes for the clearest signals about how the market will settle after Windows 10’s support cliff. (learn.microsoft.com, gs.statcounter.com)
Source: PCMag UK Windows 11 Users Dropped Last Month, Still Bigger Than Windows 10
Microsoft’s two most-used desktop operating systems have lived in a slow-motion duel ever since Windows 11 launched in October 2021. Windows 10 dominated for most of the last decade, but 2025 has been the year the balance finally shifted — briefly and then unevenly — as the looming October 14, 2025 end-of-support deadline for Windows 10 forced households, businesses, and OEM channels to accelerate migrations. The July surge that pushed Windows 11 ahead of Windows 10 was widely reported across industry outlets and is attributable to that deadline plus a run of hardware refreshes and preinstalled Windows 11 machines. (windowscentral.com, techpowerup.com)Statcounter’s monthly panel — the one most outlets use for quick month‑to‑month comparisons — is the principal public source for this story. It tracks pageviews across its network of sites and publishes monthly breakdowns for desktop Windows versions; its August dashboard shows Windows 11 at roughly 49.0% and Windows 10 at about 45.7%. Those percentages are the basis for the recent coverage that described a drop for Windows 11 in August after the July high. (gs.statcounter.com)
What the August numbers actually say
- Statcounter’s global “Desktop Windows Version Market Share” for August 2025 lists Windows 11 at 49.02% and Windows 10 at 45.65%, with older versions (Windows 7, 8, 8.1, XP) making up the remainder in small slices. (gs.statcounter.com)
- Multiple tech publications reported that Windows 11 briefly overtook Windows 10 in July, a milestone repeatedly attributed to Statcounter’s July figures and the run up to Windows 10’s EOL. Those July reports show Windows 11 at roughly the low‑50s and Windows 10 in the mid‑40s depending on rounding and the outlet’s quoting of Statcounter. (windowscentral.com, techpowerup.com)
Why the August dip happened (and why some people switched back)
Several converging factors likely produced the August dip in Windows 11 share and the bump in Windows 10 usage.1) Microsoft’s consumer ESU/backup policy reduced urgency to upgrade
In June and July Microsoft rolled out a consumer Extended Security Updates (ESU) path that softened the October 2025 cliff for people who don’t want to move to Windows 11 immediately. The consumer ESU program offers three enrollment options:- Free enrollment if you sync your Windows settings with Windows Backup (OneDrive).
- Redeem 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points to enroll at no extra cash cost.
- Or pay $30 USD per device for one year of ESU coverage. (blogs.windows.com, learn.microsoft.com)
2) Practical reversions and business testing
Large-scale upgrades rarely go perfectly. IT teams, gamers, and power users who hit unexpected compatibility or driver problems during updates sometimes revert to their previous install to preserve workflows. Those rollbacks, combined with enterprises pausing mass upgrades until after the EOL, can produce temporary month‑to‑month noise in Statcounter’s snapshot. Independent outlets have told similar stories about business conservatism and cautious rollouts. (techpowerup.com, theregister.com)3) Statistical noise in web‑traffic sampling
Statcounter measures pageviews across a panel of websites; it doesn’t count every device worldwide, and monthly sample variation can produce short‑term swings. That means a few traffic pattern shifts — a large site temporarily favoring content that attracts Windows 10 users, or a regional browsing spike — can move the percentages by a few points during a single month. Statcounter’s published FAQ explains the pageview basis and sample size; critics have also pointed out that month‑to‑month noise is a real limitation. Treat the figures as the best available public gauge — not a canonical device census. (gs.statcounter.com, undercodenews.com)Microsoft’s ESU program: what it offers, and what it doesn’t
Microsoft’s consumer ESU announcement and documentation clarify the mechanics and boundaries of the one‑year extension:- ESU consumer coverage runs from Oct 15, 2025 through Oct 13, 2026 for enrolled devices. Enrollment requires Windows 10 version 22H2 and a Microsoft Account; the wizard appears in Settings if prerequisites are met. (learn.microsoft.com, support.microsoft.com)
- Enrollment options for individuals are explicitly: sync Windows settings to OneDrive (free), redeem 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points (free), or pay a one‑time $30 USD per device fee. Commercial pricing and terms differ. (blogs.windows.com, learn.microsoft.com)
- ESU provides security updates only — no new features, no general support, and no long‑term feature maintenance. The program is intended as a bridge, not a replacement for upgrading to a supported OS. (learn.microsoft.com)
How reliable is Statcounter (and how seriously should readers take single‑month moves)?
Statcounter is the de facto public meter journalists use because Microsoft does not publish a comparable device‑level tally; its Global Stats are widely distributed and updated monthly. The company discloses its methodology: it aggregates billions of pageviews from over a million member sites and reports OS/browser breakdowns based on those pageviews. That methodology is transparent and large in scale — and it’s a useful barometer for public discussion. (gs.statcounter.com)That said, two caveats are essential:
- Pageviews ≠ device census. Statcounter deliberately measures pageviews to reflect usage activity. That’s an intentional choice and not a bug, but it means data can shift more quickly than a device registry would. Occasional sampling artifacts happen. (gs.statcounter.com)
- Short‑term volatility is expected. Industry analysts and publications have warned that month‑over‑month swings of a few percentage points are plausible and that narratives built on a single month should be cautious. Use rolling trends and corroborating sources (OEM shipments, enterprise telemetry, major retailer data) to form a more durable view. (undercodenews.com, theregister.com)
Fact‑check: PCMag’s key claims versus public data
The PCMag UK writeup (the item the user supplied) focused on the same Statcounter movement and proposed ESU incentives as an explanation for the August direction change. A few of PCMag’s characterizations are accurate and verifiable, but one claim merits caution:- PCMag’s core assertion — that Windows 11’s share fell in August while Windows 10 rose — matches Statcounter’s August dashboard and independent reporting. (gs.statcounter.com, neowin.net)
- PCMag’s line that the “remaining 11%” of Windows users run legacy OSes (Windows 7, 8, XP) is inconsistent with Statcounter’s August breakdown: Statcounter lists older versions in much smaller aggregate amounts (Windows 7 ~3.5%, Windows 8/8.1/XP together only a few percent), summing to roughly 5–6% rather than 11% on the global desktop chart. That discrepancy suggests PCMag either summarized a different regional slice, misread the chart, or used a different rounding/aggregation — it’s a claim that should be qualified or corrected. (gs.statcounter.com)
Risks, tradeoffs and winners/losers in the near term
Strengths of the current situation
- Consumers have options. Microsoft’s ESU and the Windows Backup enrollment route mean many users won’t be forced into immediate hardware purchases, reducing short-term e‑waste and giving households time to plan upgrades. (blogs.windows.com, learn.microsoft.com)
- Momentum for Windows 11 persists. Even with August’s dip, Windows 11 has established itself as the public‑facing majority on Statcounter and will likely remain a key target for developers and OEMs. (windowscentral.com, gs.statcounter.com)
Risks and downside
- Security risk complacency. ESU is a one‑year stopgap and covers only security updates. Users delaying migration for more than a year face an increasing attack surface and eventual lack of patches unless they remain enrolled. (learn.microsoft.com)
- Compatibility and fragmentation. Enterprise environments that delay upgrades risk longer-term fragmentation between teams on Windows 10 vs. Windows 11 — complicating testing, driver support, and procurement cycles. (theregister.com)
- Consumer confusion. Rolling enrollment wizards and inconsistent sign‑up availability have already caused frustration; slow rollouts mean some users can’t enroll easily, pushing them to delay or seek paid ESU options. That rollout unevenness has been reported in the press. (techradar.com)
Practical guidance for readers and admins
Whether you’re on Windows 10 considering staying a bit longer, or on Windows 11 evaluating whether to roll back, here’s a concise checklist:- Check your current Windows build: Settings > System > About. Confirm you’re on Windows 10 version 22H2 if you plan to enroll in ESU.
- If you plan to use the free ESU option, enable Windows Backup / sync your settings to OneDrive (this is the free consumer pathway). If you prefer Microsoft Rewards, verify you have 1,000 points available. The paid option is $30 per device for the one‑year ESU. Enrollment appears in Settings > Windows Update when your device is eligible. (learn.microsoft.com, support.microsoft.com)
- For business administrators: evaluate ESU for a narrow set of legacy systems only. Plan a staged migration strategy tied to application compatibility testing and hardware refresh cycles. Expect commercial ESU pricing and terms to differ from consumer offers. (learn.microsoft.com)
- If you’re testing Windows 11 and encountering performance or compatibility issues, log driver and app problems, and consider postponing a rollback until you can schedule a maintenance window. For mission‑critical machines, prefer fresh installations or a full imaging strategy rather than in‑place updates when possible. (theregister.com)
- Watch the data over multiple months. Single‑month Statcounter swings can be noisy; a three‑month rolling trend gives a better read on durable migration patterns. (gs.statcounter.com)
What to watch next
- September Statcounter release (early October): the next public Statcounter update will show whether August’s dip was an anomaly or the start of a broader retrenchment by Windows 11 users. Given the EOL timetable, trend direction through September will be informative. (gs.statcounter.com)
- ESU enrollment uptake and rollout fixes: Microsoft’s own reporting and community feedback about the enrollment wizard will indicate whether the free avenues are working as intended or if technical hiccups force users into paid enrollment. There were reports of slow rollout and wizard bugs; watch Microsoft updates and mainstream coverage for fixes. (techradar.com, blogs.windows.com)
- Enterprise migrations and OEM shipments: large buyer behavior and OEM shipments over the fall buying season will affect long‑term adoption more than month‑to‑month Statcounter blips. Retail and OEM shipment data will be a key corroborating signal. (procurri.com)
Conclusion
August’s Statcounter snapshot reminded the market that migration isn’t a single sprint — it’s a marathon full of starts, stops, and occasional backpedals. Windows 11 remains the larger share on public charts despite losing a few points in August, and Microsoft’s consumer ESU options explain part of that hesitancy: the company has given users a structured way to pause an urgent move to Windows 11. (gs.statcounter.com, blogs.windows.com)That pause is pragmatic for many households, but it’s temporary. ESU is a bridge, not a destination: security updates through October 2026 buy breathing space but not indefinite protection. For readers and IT teams, the sensible course is to treat this moment as a planning window — verify compatibility, inventory critical apps, and decide whether to enroll, upgrade, or schedule a phased migration. Meanwhile, watch the next Statcounter releases and Microsoft’s rollout notes for the clearest signals about how the market will settle after Windows 10’s support cliff. (learn.microsoft.com, gs.statcounter.com)
Source: PCMag UK Windows 11 Users Dropped Last Month, Still Bigger Than Windows 10