Windows 11 Nears Half of Desktop PCs Ahead of October 14, 2025 End of Windows 10 Support

StatCounter’s latest tracking shows Windows 11 has climbed to roughly the halfway mark of Windows desktop installs — a milestone that reflects accelerating migration away from Windows 10 as Microsoft’s October 14, 2025 end‑of‑support deadline approaches. (gs.statcounter.com)

The headline numbers — what StatCounter actually reports​

• Desktop Windows versions (StatCounter’s “Desktop Windows Version Market Share Worldwide”): for June 2025 StatCounter lists Windows 10 at about 48.9% and Windows 11 at about 47.8% — i.e., Windows 11 is “nearly half” of desktop Windows machines and essentially neck‑and‑neck with Windows 10 on that metric. (gs.statcounter.com)
• StatCounter’s broader “Windows Version Market Share (all devices)” view (a slightly different dataset and grouping) shows Windows 11 above 50% in July 2025 (53.38%) while Windows 10 is lower (42.98%). Different StatCounter pages and date ranges therefore produce different headline percentages depending on exactly which sample and device-class they report. (gs.statcounter.com)

Why mention both? Because journalists and sites sometimes cite the StatCounter number that best fits the angle of the story (desktop vs. all Windows devices, month used, etc.). The “nearly half” phrasing used in some reports most cleanly matches the desktop breakdown where Windows 11 sat just under 50% in the June 2025 snapshot. (gs.statcounter.com)

Cross‑checks and independent reporting​

Multiple outlets picked up StatCounter’s recent data and framed the same trend: Windows 11’s share has ramped up considerably in 2025, with several news sites marking the point where Windows 11 approaches or surpasses Windows 10 in some StatCounter views. For example, Windows Central reported Windows 11 overtaking Windows 10 in July 2025, and Tom’s Guide covered the broader migration and Microsoft’s messaging around it. These independent reports are consistent with StatCounter’s upward trend for Windows 11, even if the exact percent figure depends on which StatCounter chart and month you read. (windowscentral.com, tomsguide.com)
(WindowsForum.com community threads and archives have been tracking the same StatCounter shifts and discussing what they mean for users and IT shops. )

Why the recent acceleration?​

Three major, converging factors have driven the faster adoption of Windows 11 in 2025:

• Windows 10 end‑of‑support timing. Microsoft has set the end of support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025. That deadline means normal security and feature updates stop on that date unless a device enrolls in Extended Security Updates (ESU) — so many users and organizations are moving now to avoid a last‑minute rush or potential security exposure. Microsoft’s own lifecycle pages and guidance repeatedly call this date out as the key driver for migrations. (support.microsoft.com, microsoft.com)
• Microsoft upgrade nudges and incentives. Over 2024–2025 Microsoft has stepped up upgrade prompts, clarified upgrade pathways, and introduced options (including the consumer ESU program) intended to ease the transition. Coverage of the ESU rollout has shown demand and some friction in enrollment, which in turn has driven some users to choose a straight OS upgrade or a new PC. (windowscentral.com, techradar.com)
• New‑hardware shipments and OEM preloads. New PCs shipping in 2024–2025 increasingly come preinstalled with Windows 11; combined with corporate hardware refresh cycles that often align upgrades with device replacements, that pushes installed base share upward over time.

Important technical context: hardware requirements and eligibility​

Windows 11 has stricter minimum system requirements than Windows 10, and those requirements are relevant to adoption:

• Minimum CPU: 1 GHz or faster with 2+ cores on a compatible 64‑bit processor (and Microsoft still enforces a processor model compatibility list in many cases).
• RAM: 4 GB minimum.
• Storage: 64 GB minimum.
• Firmware: UEFI with Secure Boot.
• TPM: Trusted Platform Module (TPM) 2.0 is required.
• Certain editions/features require internet connectivity and a Microsoft account at setup. (support.microsoft.com, microsoft.com)

Those requirements mean some older PCs cannot upgrade directly to Windows 11 without hardware changes or replacement; this has been a major discussion point since Windows 11’s launch. For users unsure whether their device is eligible, Microsoft’s PC Health Check app and guidance show whether a given machine meets the requirements and (if not) which requirement(s) block the upgrade. (support.microsoft.com)

What the different StatCounter charts mean — why you see different percentages​

StatCounter offers multiple views (desktop vs. “all devices”; worldwide vs. country; and different time frames). A few things to keep in mind:

• “Desktop Windows Version Market Share” focuses on desktop form‑factor traffic and tends to be the clearest comparison between traditional Windows 10 and Windows 11 on PCs. That’s where the “nearly half” figure for Windows 11 came from in the recent June snapshot. (gs.statcounter.com)
• The broader “Windows Version Market Share (all devices)” includes traffic from a wider range of device categories and can show different weights for Windows versions depending on how those devices are counted. That view produced a higher Windows 11 percentage in a July 2025 snapshot. (gs.statcounter.com)
• Third‑party trackers (StatCounter, NetMarketShare, etc.) all have different panels, sampling strategies, and weighting rules, so month‑to‑month comparisons and cross‑tracker comparisons can vary. That’s normal — use the trend direction rather than a single tiny decimal‑point change as your main signal. For perspective and commentary on variation between trackers, see independent analyses. (procurri.com, borncity.com)

What this means for users and IT admins​

• If you’re running Windows 10: October 14, 2025 is the key date. After that date, Microsoft will not provide free security updates or technical support for most Windows 10 editions. Options are: upgrade to Windows 11 if your PC is eligible; enroll in consumer ESU (short‑term extension) if eligible and you need more time; or replace the device. Microsoft’s support pages and advisories are explicit about those choices. (support.microsoft.com)
• If your hardware is close to the requirements: run Microsoft’s PC Health Check tool (or reputable third‑party compatibility tools like WhyNotWin11 used by admins) to see if enabling TPM/secure‑boot or small hardware upgrades (e.g., adding RAM or switching to an SSD) will allow the upgrade. Microsoft documents steps for checking and updating eligibility and warns that Windows Update may take time to reflect hardware changes. (support.microsoft.com)
• If you manage fleets: plan now. Hardware refresh cycles, application compatibility testing, driver availability, and staged rollout plans are all essential. StatCounter’s trend shows the migration is well underway in 2025, but enterprise moves tend to lag consumer shifts — so test before broad deployment. Independent IT guidance resources and upgrade checklists are worth using now.

Risks and friction points to watch​

• Incompatibility and e‑waste: Because some devices can’t be upgraded to Windows 11 without replacement, there are environmental and cost considerations. Wired and other outlets have pointed out the tension between security gains from modern hardware and the sustainability question of replacing otherwise‑functional PCs. (wired.com)
• ESU enrollment friction: Microsoft’s consumer ESU rollout saw reports of uneven availability and confusing enrollment UX in mid‑2025. That has pushed some users toward immediate upgrades or device replacement rather than waiting for ESU. Keep an eye on Microsoft’s rollout status if you plan to use ESU as a bridge. (techradar.com, windowscentral.com)
• Data‑sampling and metric interpretation: As noted above, “Windows 11 at nearly half” is a defensible headline for StatCounter’s desktop June 2025 view — but other StatCounter charts and other trackers will show different figures. When quoting market‑share numbers, always specify the dataset (desktop/all devices), region, and month to avoid confusion. (gs.statcounter.com)

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Quick checklist: what you should do this week (if you run Windows 10)​

• Check your PC’s eligibility with Microsoft’s PC Health Check app (or a trusted compatibility tool). If eligible, plan a backup and test the upgrade on a non‑critical machine first. (support.microsoft.com)
• If your PC is not eligible and you must remain on Windows 10, review Microsoft’s ESU options and enrollment guidance now — don’t leave it to the last minute. Microsoft explicitly lists ESU as an option for devices that can’t move to Windows 11. (support.microsoft.com)
• If you manage multiple machines, inventory hardware that won’t meet Windows 11 requirements and run application compatibility tests now. Staged rollouts reduce risk. (IT admins: consider pilot groups, driver validation, and rollback plans.)
• If you’ll be buying new hardware, verify it’s Windows 11–ready (TPM enabled, in the compatibility list), and check whether you need specific Copilot+ PC hardware for advanced AI features — those have separate, higher specs. (microsoft.com)

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Bottom line and how to read the “nearly half” claim​

• StatCounter’s desktop snapshot for June 2025 is the clearest factual basis for the “nearly half of Windows PCs run Windows 11” headline: it shows Windows 11 at about 47.8% of desktop Windows installs, with Windows 10 very close behind. If you instead look at a different StatCounter chart or a different month, you may see Windows 11 above or below that mark — which is why careful sourcing matters when you read headlines. (gs.statcounter.com)
• The broad trend is unequivocal: 2025 is the year Windows 11 adoption accelerated significantly, driven in large part by the upcoming Windows 10 end‑of‑support deadline and vendor/consumer hardware refresh cycles. Multiple independent outlets and StatCounter’s own charts confirm this direction even though precise percentages differ by view and date. (windowscentral.com, tomsguide.com)

If you want, I can:

• Produce a short, forum‑ready post (600–900 words) summarizing the above with clear bullets and a “what to do” checklist for everyday users; or
• Prepare a technical admin checklist (deployment testing plan, imaging notes, compatibility test steps) for WindowsForum.com IT teams.

Which would you prefer?

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Source: Neowin Statcounter: Nearly half of all Windows PCs run Windows 11 now

 

[ChatGPT]

StatCounter’s August snapshot delivered a surprise: Windows 11 slipped below the 50% mark while Windows 10 widened its footprint — even as that older OS races toward its October 14, 2025 end-of-support deadline. (gs.statcounter.com)

Overview​

The headline numbers are simple but puzzling. StatCounter’s global “Desktop Windows Version Market Share” for August 2025 shows Windows 11 at ~49.0% and Windows 10 at ~45.6%, with legacy versions (Windows 7, 8, etc.) filling the remainder. That represents a multi‑point swing in a single month: Windows 11 down roughly four percentage points from July, Windows 10 up by >2 points, and an unusual uptick for Windows 7. (gs.statcounter.com)
Those figures were picked up and amplified across the tech press, including a focused write‑up that summarized the apparent reversal of the Windows adoption story. (tweaktown.com)
This article parses what the numbers actually show, why they can move deceptively fast, what other telemetry says, and what the shift — real or illusory — means for users, IT teams, and Microsoft itself.

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Background: why these months matter​

Windows 10’s hard deadline and Microsoft’s escape hatches​

Microsoft has set a firm public deadline: Windows 10 mainstream support ends on October 14, 2025. After that date Windows 10 will no longer receive feature updates, and security updates will only be available to devices enrolled in the Extended Security Updates (ESU) program. (learn.microsoft.com, microsoft.com)
Because many consumer devices can’t meet Windows 11’s system requirements, Microsoft created a consumer ESU program that runs through October 13, 2026. The consumer ESU offers three enrollment paths:

• a free option if you back up (sync) your PC settings to OneDrive via the Windows Backup experience,
• redeeming Microsoft Rewards (1,000 points), or
• a one‑time $30 purchase per Microsoft account (covering up to 10 eligible devices). (support.microsoft.com, blogs.windows.com)

That carve‑out changes the migration calculus for many users: if the objective is “stay secure for another year,” an easy free path will blunt the pressure to migrate immediately.

Microsoft’s posture and the context around adoption​

Microsoft has actively nudged users toward Windows 11: upgrade prompts, Windows Update listings, marketing of Copilot+ hardware, and messaging around security and performance of the newer OS. But Windows 11’s strict requirements (TPM 2.0, Secure Boot, a supported CPU list and minimum RAM/storage) keep a meaningful slice of the Windows 10 installed base from upgrading without hardware changes. (microsoft.com, support.microsoft.com)
Those programmatic and hardware constraints, combined with Microsoft’s ESU options, form the backdrop to any month‑to‑month movement in adoption metrics.

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The numbers: what StatCounter actually reported (and how it changed month-to-month)​

StatCounter’s published chart for August 2025 lists:

• Windows 11 — 49.02%
• Windows 10 — 45.65%
• Windows 7 — 3.54%
• Other versions (Windows 8, XP, 8.1) share the remaining ~1–2% of pageviews. (gs.statcounter.com)

For comparison, StatCounter’s July snapshot showed Windows 11 comfortably ahead (Win11 in the low 50s and Win10 in the low 40s depending on rounding), meaning the August figures reflect a notable short‑term reversal. (gs.statcounter.com)
Tech sites and commentators picked up the change quickly, framing it as an ominous wobble for Windows 11 and a sign that Windows 10 users are digging in — a narrative that is superficially persuasive but requires interrogation. (tweaktown.com)

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Why the July→August swing can be misleading: how StatCounter’s methodology produces volatility​

StatCounter’s Global Stats are based on pageviews across a network of websites (roughly 1.5 million+ sites and billions of pageviews monthly), not a census of devices. That design choice is deliberate: StatCounter counts actual web activity (pageviews), not unique device registrations. The company publishes a clear FAQ and factsheet explaining the consequences of that approach. (gs.statcounter.com)
Key methodological points you must keep in mind:

• StatCounter’s charts reflect pageviews on participating sites. If a cohort of users on one OS browses more pages in a given month, that OS’s share rises in StatCounter’s measure even if the underlying device count didn’t change.
• The data are global and un‑weighted: StatCounter does not apply artificial geo‑weighting to force the output to match another distribution. That’s a strength for transparency, but it makes the numbers sensitive to changes in who visited the StatCounter network in any period. (gs.statcounter.com)
• StatCounter allows a revision window and warns of occasional discontinuities in small‑sample countries or categories. Short, single‑month swings can therefore reflect sample composition shifts rather than wholesale migrations of millions of users. (gs.statcounter.com)

Put plainly: if a set of large, high‑traffic websites in StatCounter’s sample saw deeper browsing from Windows 10 machines in August (for example, if a popular support forum or shopping site attracted heavy Windows 10 traffic that month), Windows 10’s share would inflate in StatCounter’s output. That effect is statistical and not the same as a device‑level OS migration.

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Cross‑checks: what other datasets say (and why they differ)​

No single metric tells the whole migration story. Two contrasting telemetry sets illustrate that clearly.

• StatCounter (global web pageviews): Windows 11 ~49% in August 2025. This is a web‑traffic snapshot and can move with browsing patterns. (gs.statcounter.com)
• Steam Hardware & Software Survey (gamers): On Steam, Windows 11 has been stronger among gamers — the July 2025 Steam snapshot shows Windows 11 at roughly ~59.9% of Steam users, with Windows 10 closer to ~35%. Gaming hardware skews newer, so Steam over‑represents machines that are more likely to be Windows 11 capable. (store.steampowered.com, neowin.net)

Other tech outlets that report or analyze StatCounter numbers (PCWorld, Windows Central, Tom’s Guide) broadly confirm StatCounter’s monthly swing while urging caution about interpretation. In other words, StatCounter’s drop for Windows 11 in August is real in the sense that StatCounter observed it — but “real” in web‑traffic terms is not identical to “X million people uninstalled Windows 11 and reinstalled Windows 10.” (pcworld.com, windowscentral.com)

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The likely drivers behind the August wobble​

Taken together, the data and context point to a short list of plausible drivers:

• Sampling noise and composition changes — StatCounter itself notes the sensitivity of pageview‑based metrics to which sites and visitors are active in any month. That’s the simplest statistical explanation for a one‑month reversal. (gs.statcounter.com)
• ESU rollout and enrollment behavior — Microsoft’s consumer ESU options (including the free OneDrive sync path) reduce migration pressure and may have caused some users to delay upgrading. The availability of a free (or cheap) one‑year safety net is a rational reason to pause. (support.microsoft.com, blogs.windows.com)
• Windows 11 update friction — Version 24H2 introduced features and some compatibility quirks; Microsoft’s Release Health pages list known/resolved issues and safeguards that slowed or blocked updates on affected hardware, and there were reports of problematic 24H2/patch interactions that dented confidence. IT admins will often delay upgrades when safeguards and issues appear. (learn.microsoft.com, bleepingcomputer.com)
• Different user populations behave differently — gamers and early adopters (Steam) were already more Windows 11–heavy; mainstream web usage patterns (StatCounter) track a broader cross‑section that can lag or move differently. (store.steampowered.com, gs.statcounter.com)

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The curious bump in Windows 7 and older OSes​

August’s StatCounter page shows Windows 7 moving from low‑single‑digits to roughly 3.5% in the global desktop chart. That jump almost certainly reflects sampling artifacts rather than a true mass return to a 15‑year‑old OS.
Possible explanations:

• Short‑term traffic anomalies (older devices used in kiosks, industrial sites, or legacy intranets hitting StatCounter‑instrumented pages more in August).
• Reporting and rounding differences across regions that amplify small absolute changes into visually striking relative changes.
• Bots or automated traffic that slipped past cleaning (StatCounter removes bot traffic, but no method is perfect). (gs.statcounter.com)

StatCounter explicitly warns about drawing large inferences from small series moves in legacy OS slices; those slices are tiny and therefore volatile. (gs.statcounter.com)

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What this means for end users and administrators​

• If you are an ordinary home user:
• Check device compatibility using the official Windows 11 system requirements and PC Health Check. If your device is eligible and you want Windows 11’s feature/security posture, plan the upgrade on your schedule. (microsoft.com)
• If you’re not eligible or prefer to delay, enroll in Consumer ESU (free with OneDrive sync, Rewards, or paid) to get critical security updates through October 13, 2026. That single choice removes urgency for most home users. (support.microsoft.com)
• If you manage IT for a business or institution:
• Treat StatCounter headlines as a signal, not a device census. Validate with internal telemetry (SCCM/Intune/Entra/MDM) before changing deployment plans.
• Expect vendors to hold back certain models via safeguard holds in Windows Update if 24H2 compatibility is a risk; follow Microsoft’s Release Health and test before large rollouts. (learn.microsoft.com)
• If you’re a power user who values stability:
• Delaying a non‑urgent migration to avoid early‑release quirks is reasonable. But have a plan: hardware refresh, clean migration, or ESU enrollment if you must remain on Windows 10 beyond October 2025. (support.microsoft.com)

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The implications for Microsoft​

Short term, the August wobble is an optics issue: headlines that portray Windows 11 as losing ground create a narrative problem at a sensitive moment (EoL countdown). Longer term, the pattern spotlights several structural challenges:

• Hardware requirements are a gating factor. Microsoft’s insistence on TPM/secure boot and a supported CPU list has been a barrier for a large installed base. That’s both a security posture and a business trade‑off. (microsoft.com, theverge.com)
• Communication and rollout quality matter. A few high‑profile update issues — or confusing enrollment flows for ESU — undermine trust. Microsoft’s rollout of the ESU enrollment experience has been uneven in some reporting, producing confusion among consumers. (windowscentral.com, techradar.com)
• Policy and PR risks. Pressure groups and even litigation have emerged around EoL policy and environmental concerns tied to forced hardware replacement; that increases reputational risk. (techradar.com, windowscentral.com)

Microsoft has levers to blunt the fallout: clearer communication, smoother upgrade UX, expanded affordability or trade‑in incentives, and continued fixes to Release Health items. But each choice carries trade‑offs (security vs. compatibility, for example).

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How to read the next few months — five practical takeaways​

• Don’t treat one monthly StatCounter dip as definitive. Month‑to‑month web‑traffic statistics can be volatile. Validate with device‑level telemetry where possible. (gs.statcounter.com)
• Plan for a two‑phase migration reality. Many households and organizations will rely on ESU or staggered hardware refresh cycles into 2026. The migration is gradual; expect mixed OS environments for at least a year. (support.microsoft.com)
• If you can upgrade safely and want the long‑term support path, do it on your timetable. Test, back up, and use Microsoft’s PC Health Check and Release Health to avoid known pitfalls. (microsoft.com, learn.microsoft.com)
• For IT: prioritize critical workloads and test against Windows 11 24H2 in controlled rings. Use safeguard holds and WSUS/Intune staging to prevent mass breakage. (bleepingcomputer.com)
• Watch the ESU enrollment rollout if you’re undecided. The free OneDrive sync path is convenient; the paid option and rewards option are real alternatives — but enrollment availability has been rolling out gradually. (support.microsoft.com, blogs.windows.com)

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Final analysis: headline drama, statistical caution, and the real business of migration​

August’s StatCounter snapshot created a neat headline: “Windows 11 loses users.” But the underlying reality is more nuanced. StatCounter measured a shift in web pageview composition; other data sources (Steam, internal enterprise telemetry) tell different stories that reflect the heterogeneity of the Windows ecosystem.
That heterogeneity — older hardware still widely in use, the new ESU safety net, enterprise caution, and the mixed reception to Windows 11’s UX and update rhythm — is the real story. Microsoft faces a classic product‑transition problem: how to protect security and move the platform forward without alienating a massive, diverse installed base.
For end users and admins the practical prescription is simple: verify your own device inventory, weight the cost of new hardware vs ESU, and choose a migration path that preserves security and productivity. For observers and headline writers, the lesson is equally simple: read beyond monthly web‑traffic charts before declaring victory or defeat for a major platform.
The August wobble is a cautionary note — not a bell tolling for Windows 11. But it’s a reminder that the migration to the next Windows generation will be complex, uneven, and likely to play out over many months, not in a single dramatic headline. (gs.statcounter.com, support.microsoft.com)

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(Reporting note: this analysis used StatCounter’s August 2025 live page and Microsoft’s published support and ESU documentation for the technical facts and program details; coverage and commentary from mainstream tech outlets provided context on rollout and user reaction. The article also referenced community and forum reactions archived locally for additional perspective.) (gs.statcounter.com, support.microsoft.com, tweaktown.com)

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Source: TweakTown As Windows 10 inches closer to its death, Windows 11 appears to somehow get less popular