Windows 11 Near 50% on Desktop; Windows 10 Near End of Support

Background​

Why these numbers matter: the security calculus​

• An unsupported OS becomes a persistent target: once vendor patches stop, every newly discovered vulnerability is a permanent hole until users either pay for extended support, isolate the device, or move to a supported platform.
• Historic precedent is instructive: the 2017 WannaCry outbreak exploited an unpatched Windows vulnerability and caused massive disruption across healthcare and industry, underscoring how quickly attackers weaponize unpatched systems. (bbc.co.uk)

Where adoption stalls: the real barriers to moving to Windows 11​

• Hardware requirements: Windows 11’s baseline includes modern CPU families, TPM 2.0, Secure Boot and other platform features that many older PCs lack. For a non‑trivial proportion of the installed base, a simple in-place upgrade isn’t possible without hardware change. (learn.microsoft.com)
• Compatibility and stability concerns: Enterprises run bespoke line-of-business apps and older toolchains that often require testing and remediation before a mass migration. Many IT teams choose stability over change, particularly ahead of busy fiscal periods. (techradar.com)
• Cost and procurement cycles: Large fleets are refreshed on multi-year cycles; accelerating purchases to meet an OS cutoff carries direct capital and indirect operational costs.
• User inertia and perceived value: Some users see Windows 11 as “Windows 10 with a facelift” and judge the disruption — re-training, UI changes, feature tweaks — to be greater than the benefit.
• Policy and tooling friction: In some managed environments, update offers and Intune policies have produced confusion or been blocked by corporate controls, complicating straightforward upgrade pipelines. (forbes.com)

What the telemetry claims — and what they don’t prove​

• Telemetry from a security vendor reflects the vendor’s installed base and customer mix; it is not a population‑level census. Results can over‑ or under‑represent particular markets, industries or device classes. Treat such figures as directional evidence rather than absolute truth. (technewsworld.com)
• When multiple independent measurements — StatCounter, Steam/Valve surveys, vendor telemetry and enterprise research — converge on the same direction (a substantial number of systems still on Windows 10), confidence in the overall picture grows. StatCounter’s month‑by‑month charting and corroborating industry reporting show a migration in progress but not complete. (gs.statcounter.com)
• If your risk assessment or procurement decision depends on precise market shares, ask for raw methodology, sample sizes and segment breakdowns from the source. Otherwise, plan for the conservative scenario: significant remaining Windows 10 population at end‑of‑support.

The immediate risk horizon: what October 15 looks like​

• Newly discovered OS vulnerabilities will not be fixed for the general Windows 10 population unless users are enrolled in ESU or Microsoft issues targeted exceptions.
• Attackers will rapidly scan for exposed Windows 10 systems — automated scanners and commodity exploit kits make mass exploitation feasible and fast.
• Compliance and procurement pressure will grow: auditors, regulators and enterprise security policies may start enforcing migration timelines or denying access to corporate resources from unsupported endpoints. (support.microsoft.com)

What Microsoft is offering — and how realistic it is​

• A free upgrade path to Windows 11 for eligible Windows 10 devices via Windows Update.
• A one‑year Extended Security Updates (ESU) option for consumers and enterprises that need extra time, with consumer enrollment paths that can include redeeming Microsoft Rewards points or a one-time fee (Microsoft documentation and early coverage indicate consumer ESU pricing and enrollment options such as redeeming 1,000 Rewards points or paying $30 USD for up to 10 devices). (microsoft.com)
• Guidance to consider cloud or managed alternatives — Windows 365, Copilot+ PC messaging and hardware refresh recommendations — to accelerate moving to a supported platform. (blogs.windows.com)

A pragmatic migration playbook — for IT teams and power users​

• Inventory. Use endpoint management systems and network discovery to produce a definitive list of Windows 10 machines, their hardware capability, installed applications and business owner. Prioritize by criticality.
• Categorize. Label systems as: Upgrade‑eligible (in‑place), Hardware‑upgrade required, End‑of‑life application dependency, or Decommission/replace.
• Risk score. Assign a risk rating based on data sensitivity, connectivity and public exposure. High‑risk systems get priority.
• Pilot. Run a staged Windows 11 pilot with representative workloads and third‑party vendors to validate app compatibility, drivers and performance.
• Remediate. Patch apps, update device firmware and replace drivers. Where hardware is the blocker, plan targeted hardware refresh or assess virtualization/cloud alternatives.
• Enroll where necessary. For systems that can’t be moved by October 14, consider ESU enrollment as a last‑resort buffer while executing a remediation roadmap.
• Compensating controls. For remaining Windows 10 endpoints, implement stronger network segmentation, strict MFA, EDR with network visibility, and enforce least privilege and application allowlisting.
• Monitor and iterate. Use telemetry to measure migration velocity, incident rates and rollback rates; adapt plans and procurement accordingly.

Consumer options: cost, alternatives and trade‑offs​

• Upgrade in place to Windows 11 if your PC is eligible and you accept the interface and feature changes.
• Replace or trade in hardware — an accelerated refresh helps future‑proof and unlocks new hardware‑backed security features.
• Enroll in ESU (consumer paths exist) to buy time and plan a measured transition. Be aware ESU is a temporary measure and not a long‑term security solution. (microsoft.com)
• Consider a supported Linux distribution, virtualization, or cloud desktops (Windows 365) as an alternative for older hardware — but account for compatibility and learning curves.
• Harden your Windows 10 machine: enable full‑disk encryption, keep third‑party software up to date, use reputable EDR/antivirus, and adopt strong backup and recovery practices.

Enterprise economics: the uncomfortable math​

Critical assessment: Microsoft’s choices and policy trade‑offs​

• Improved security baseline on Windows 11 for devices that meet requirements.
• Clear lifecycle policy for Windows 10 that enables planning and reduces indefinite support creep.
• Targeted, time‑limited ESU as a pragmatic bridge.

• Large exposed tail of Windows 10 devices after EOL could create an exploitable mass of unpatched systems.
• Equity and access concerns: users with older hardware (often lower income or in public sector) face disproportionate cost and disruption.
• Perception of vendor lock‑in and a narrative of forced obsolescence that fuels resistance and alternative ecosystems (Linux desktops, Tiny11, etc.). (htxt.co.za)

Practical, specific steps you should take this month​

• Run Microsoft’s PC Health Check and an enterprise inventory immediately to identify eligible devices. If you have a centralized imaging or endpoint management system, collect compatibility flags at scale.
• If you manage corporate devices: accelerate pilot rollouts; prioritize segmentation of legacy devices and schedule firmware/driver updates.
• Enroll high‑value and hard‑to‑replace devices in ESU if migration isn’t possible by October 14, 2025, and confirm licensing and eligibility details with procurement. (support.microsoft.com)
• For consumers: backup critical data to cloud or external storage, confirm your Microsoft account and Microsoft Rewards eligibility if you plan to use the free ESU enrollment path, and verify antivirus/EDR compatibility post‑upgrade.
• For everyone: verify backups, rehearse recovery, and ensure critical credentials are protected by MFA and password hygiene.

The long view: what happens if large pockets of Windows 10 persist?​

• Faster commoditization of exploits against known Windows 10 vulnerabilities, driving ransomware and worm‑style campaigns.
• Higher incident volumes for organizations that delay migration, with associated recovery costs and operational impact.
• Regulatory and insurance headaches: unsupported software could complicate claims and compliance audits.
• A multi‑year shadow market for third‑party support, custom patches and migration services.

Conclusion​