Dell’s own numbers make something plain: the Windows 11 migration is slower and messier than Microsoft hoped, and that slow pace is reshaping OEM planning, PC refresh timing, and the narratives Microsoft is using to sell the next generation of AI-capable machines.
The crux of the story landed in Dell’s Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call, when Vice Chairman and COO Jeffrey Clarke acknowledged that the Windows 11 transition is behind the pace of prior Windows upgrades and that Dell is planning for a largely flat PC market going into the next fiscal year. Clarke framed the situation around two headline numbers: an installed base of roughly 1.5 billion Windows PCs, of which about 500 million devices are capable of running Windows 11 but remain on Windows 10, and another ~500 million older machines that can’t run Windows 11 and are prime replacement candidates. Those figures were presented as both a challenge and an opportunity for OEMs. That assessment dovetails with reporting across the tech press and with Microsoft’s own migration messaging. Analysts and tracking services have recorded volatile month-to-month swings in Windows 10 vs. Windows 11 market share during 2024–2025, driven in part by the looming Windows 10 end-of-support event and Microsoft’s marketing nudges. Still, OEMs like Dell are blunt: consumers and enterprises aren’t upgrading as fast as historical transitions suggested they would.
The practical upshot for readers is straightforward: if your Windows 10 device is secure, stable, and meets your needs, there is no immediate emergency to replace it. If you want local AI features, improved security guarantees tied to TPM/NPUs, or a ticket to Microsoft’s newest ecosystem features, plan the upgrade with care and watch OEM promotions and trade-in programs.
Dell’s explicit willingness to call out migration slippage—backed by transcripted remarks and public guidance—gives the market a clearer, more actionable picture of the next few years for PCs, servers, and the entire Windows ecosystem.
(Reporting and analysis in this article used Dell’s Q3 FY2026 earnings remarks and contemporaneous market reporting to verify claims and frame implications.
Source: Windows Latest Dell confirms 2025 is not the year of Windows 11, as users just don't want to dump Windows 10
Background / Overview
The crux of the story landed in Dell’s Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call, when Vice Chairman and COO Jeffrey Clarke acknowledged that the Windows 11 transition is behind the pace of prior Windows upgrades and that Dell is planning for a largely flat PC market going into the next fiscal year. Clarke framed the situation around two headline numbers: an installed base of roughly 1.5 billion Windows PCs, of which about 500 million devices are capable of running Windows 11 but remain on Windows 10, and another ~500 million older machines that can’t run Windows 11 and are prime replacement candidates. Those figures were presented as both a challenge and an opportunity for OEMs. That assessment dovetails with reporting across the tech press and with Microsoft’s own migration messaging. Analysts and tracking services have recorded volatile month-to-month swings in Windows 10 vs. Windows 11 market share during 2024–2025, driven in part by the looming Windows 10 end-of-support event and Microsoft’s marketing nudges. Still, OEMs like Dell are blunt: consumers and enterprises aren’t upgrading as fast as historical transitions suggested they would. Why Dell’s comments matter
Dell sits at a high-visibility crossroad: it sells both Windows PCs to consumers and enterprise customers, and it builds AI servers and infrastructure that drive the company’s revenue growth. What Dell’s executives said on the call matters for three reasons:- It’s a vendor-level market read — Dell’s view is grounded in shipment data, channel feedback, and customer procurement cycles, and its executives are translating those signals into guidance and inventory decisions.
- It reframes demand drivers — rather than an immediate “mass upgrade” tied purely to Windows 10’s sunset, Dell sees a multi-year replacement cycle tied into AI PC capabilities, NPUs/MPUs, and new workloads.
- It affects planning and pricing — Dell guided for a roughly flat PC market while flagging continued strength in AI servers, underlining that PC refreshes will be steady but not explosive. That outlook is already influencing OEM product cadence, promotions, and channel stocking.
Windows 11 adoption today: the facts and the fog
Numbers from traffic-analytics firms and industry outlets show a pattern of rapid movement around the Windows 10 end-of-life timeframe, but the story is granular and sometimes contradictory depending on the vendor and timing.- Several trackers reported Windows 11 surpassing Windows 10 in global desktop share mid‑2025 as the support deadline approached; StatCounter-based reporting showed Windows 11 crossing the 50% threshold in mid‑2025, a milestone widely covered by The Verge and Windows Central.
- At the same time, detailed month-to-month data displayed volatility—Windows 11 rose quickly in certain months and then dipped slightly, reflecting enterprise migrations, OEM preloads, and consumer hesitancy. Those swings make single-month numbers useful for trend spotting but poor for drawing definitive, long-term conclusions.
- Dell’s assertion that a sizable portion of the installed base remains on Windows 10 (and that roughly half of the 1.5 billion installed PCs are either upgradeable but un-upgraded or too old for Windows 11) is consistent with the broader picture: migration momentum exists, but so does inertia.
Why users are holding onto Windows 10
Several clear factors explain the persistent Windows 10 base. These are not mutually exclusive; often they combine to stall an upgrade.1. Hardware gatekeeping
Windows 11’s formal minimum requirements—TPM 2.0, Secure Boot, and relatively recent CPUs—left meaningful swaths of otherwise-functional PCs technically ineligible. For many consumers, replacing a perfectly serviceable machine simply to meet a firmware/security check isn’t an appealing expense. Dell’s “500 million devices that can’t run Windows 11” point speaks directly to this hardware lock-out.2. Enterprise caution and compatibility
Enterprises migrate conservatively. Legacy apps, regulatory validation, and the complexity of wide-scale rollouts mean IT teams often delay OS changes until service packs, driver validation, and application compatibility are solved. Many organizations even downgrade new hardware back to Windows 10 until policies are finalized. This behavior flattens enterprise-driven adoption curves.3. Reputation and perceived value
Windows 11’s initial reception was mixed. Early stability issues with larger feature updates and user interface changes coupled with perception problems—users who don’t see tangible daily benefits—have made some stick with Windows 10 out of simple risk aversion. Microsoft’s promotional nudges (full-screen upgrade prompts, feature deprecations like older OneNote versions) helped awareness but did not, on their own, convert holdouts.4. Cost and timing
Replacement cycles are driven by perceived ROI. If a user’s driver is “security” or a new AI feature, they may upgrade sooner. If not, buying a new PC—particularly at non-promotional prices—feels avoidable. For enterprises, budget cycles and refresh fleet timing matter far more than a single OS sunset.What this means for Microsoft, OEMs, and the PC market
The slower-than-expected transition has distinct implications across the ecosystem.For Microsoft
- Message recalibration: Microsoft’s push around Windows 11, Copilot, and AI integration remains strategic, but the company needs to balance urgency with goodwill; heavy-handed coercive nudges risk alienating consumers. The presence of Extended Security Updates (ESU) options underlines Microsoft’s pragmatic approach to managing the migration tail.
- Product strategy: If Windows 11 adoption follows a stretched timeline, Microsoft’s pathway to deliver expanded AI services tied to newer hardware may shift toward hybrid approaches—cloud-offload, more backward-compatible features, and incremental rollouts targeted at early adopters.
For OEMs (Dell, HP, Lenovo, etc.
- Inventory and go-to-market: A flat PC market in the near term requires careful pricing, SKU rationalization, and targeted promotions. OEMs can still monetize the upgrade gap by offering attractive trade‑in programs, financing, and bundled AI-capable notebooks. Dell’s view—flat overall PC demand but pockets of upgrade opportunity—illustrates why OEMs are pivoting more resources to commercial and AI hardware while maintaining consumer channel discipline.
- Upsell pathways: OEMs can combine hardware refresh propositions with clear value drivers: local AI performance (on-device models), longer support lifecycles, and security improvements tied to hardware features like TPM and NPUs.
For enterprises and consumers
- Choice and compliance: Businesses will continue to weigh ESU and managed migration against full fleet replacement. Consumers can either extend life with ESU or buy new hardware if they want the latest AI features. Dell’s Q3 comments essentially signal “your choice matters”—OEMs will continue to build offers for both camps.
Dell’s AI thesis: the new lever for PC demand
Dell didn’t treat Windows 11 adoption as an isolated variable; the company explicitly tied future PC demand to AI-capable hardware. Jeffrey Clarke noted that small language models, NPUs, and more capable on-device apps will increase the value proposition for new PCs. That’s meaningful for two reasons:- New workloads require new silicon: On-device AI pushes computation into NPUs/MPUs and benefits from larger memory, faster storage, and better thermal/power designs—features that older hardware simply can’t deliver.
- Value beyond the OS: Even if consumers aren’t upgrading to Windows 11 purely for UX changes, the promise of faster, more responsive local AI features is a concrete hardware justification for replacement. Dell is positioning new machines as enablers of capabilities users might not get otherwise.
Risks and weak spots in the narrative
While Dell’s call is measured and data-driven, there are legitimate risks and caveats that temper the optimistic reading.- Installed base math is coarse: “1.5 billion devices” and “500 million upgradable but un-upgraded” are useful shorthand, but they are rough estimates. The actual distribution by geography, use-case, and upgradeability thresholds varies widely. Treat those round figures as directional, not precise inventory tallies.
- AI-hardware demand may be front-loaded: Early adopters and high-end commercial buyers will buy AI-capable gear faster than mainstream consumers. If the mainstream doesn’t see clear, everyday value from on-device AI, refresh timing could slip further, compressing OEM margins.
- Competition and platform choices: Declining PC ASPs, Chromebooks, macOS laptops, and even tablets can alter replacement economics for many consumers. Affordable Apple silicon devices or Chromebooks that meet basic needs might siphon demand away from Windows laptops if Microsoft and OEMs don’t clearly differentiate the value of Windows AI features.
- Regulatory and privacy questions: On-device AI features raise new privacy and compliance questions—especially for enterprises operating in regulated industries. These concerns can slow adoption for some customer segments.
Practical guidance: what users and IT teams should do now
For individual consumers and IT decision-makers, a structured approach reduces risk and avoids costly last-minute choices.- Assess device eligibility: run official compatibility checks and inventory what can be upgraded vs. what must be replaced.
- Prioritize by risk and value: mission-critical and internet-exposed endpoints should be prioritized for upgrade or ESU coverage.
- Consider ESU as a bridge: Microsoft’s consumer and enterprise ESU options are available, but they’re expensive on scale—budget accordingly.
- Evaluate the AI case: decide whether on-device AI capabilities materially improve workflows before buying new hardware for that reason alone.
- Shop smart: monitor OEM trade-in programs, seasonal promotions, and certified refurbished channels to reduce replacement cost.
The long view: a multi-year, hardware‑first upgrade cycle
Dell’s public framing essentially says: this is not a single-year migration event; it’s a multi-year refresh driven by hardware replacement windows, AI workloads, and enterprise procurement cycles. That changes expectations for everyone in the Windows ecosystem.- Microsoft must continue to make Windows 11 compelling both via software and by enabling real, demonstrable AI experiences—without leaning too heavily on coercive upgrade nudges.
- OEMs must tune product portfolios and channel incentives to capture replacement opportunities while being mindful of price sensitivity in the consumer segment.
- Businesses and consumers should plan refreshes that align with other hardware needs (end of warranty, security posture, application lifecycles), not just the OS sunset.
Strengths and opportunities in Dell’s position
- Clear data-driven stance: Dell’s use of installed-base estimates to outline opportunity and risk helps investors and partners plan with more nuance than a simple “upgrade or else” message.
- Diversified portfolio: strong server and AI infrastructure performance provides a buffer against flat consumer PC volumes and funds investments in AI-ready client devices.
- Channel leverage: Dell’s enterprise relationships and commercial sales channels mean it can capture migration dollars from large customers who finally need to move for security or compliance reasons.
Final assessment
Dell’s Q3 messaging confirms what many in the industry already suspected: Windows 11 adoption progressed, but not in the clean, predictable wave that Microsoft and some observers expected. The result is a market that is neither collapsing nor surging—it’s reshaping. For OEMs, that means steady upgrade demand stretched over a longer timetable and a sharper focus on hardware-led value propositions—chief among them, AI capability. For Microsoft, it’s a reminder that software roadmaps must be married to tangible, measurable user benefits if they are to drive mass hardware replacement.The practical upshot for readers is straightforward: if your Windows 10 device is secure, stable, and meets your needs, there is no immediate emergency to replace it. If you want local AI features, improved security guarantees tied to TPM/NPUs, or a ticket to Microsoft’s newest ecosystem features, plan the upgrade with care and watch OEM promotions and trade-in programs.
Dell’s explicit willingness to call out migration slippage—backed by transcripted remarks and public guidance—gives the market a clearer, more actionable picture of the next few years for PCs, servers, and the entire Windows ecosystem.
(Reporting and analysis in this article used Dell’s Q3 FY2026 earnings remarks and contemporaneous market reporting to verify claims and frame implications.
Source: Windows Latest Dell confirms 2025 is not the year of Windows 11, as users just don't want to dump Windows 10
