The third party software has either been used continually with these files for years without a problem (ThumbsPlus) or hardly ever (AC Browser Plus).
There are no DRM issues with these files; they're all .jpgs. They were perfectly accessible a few days before the problem happened, via both Windows Explorer and ThumbsPlus.
They have essentially all been moved to the current directory with ThumbsPlus, an image managing program. Since ThumbsPlus can access files in the directory that aren't showing up in either Windows Explorer or AC Browser Plus (the files that is has created a thumbnail image and hence its own directory information for), it seems very unlikely to be the problem.
There's nothing else in the folder, no pointers...