Windows 10 Still Dominant as Windows 11 Adoption Slows, ESU Bridges Gap

Windows 10 remains the operating system on roughly a billion active PCs worldwide even after Microsoft formally ended mainstream support, a stubborn reality underscored by Dell’s recent investor commentary and public telemetry that together paint a fragmented, messy migration from a decade-old OS to Windows 11.

Background / Overview​

Microsoft launched Windows 10 in 2015 and supported it as the company’s mainstream client platform for a decade. On October 14, 2025, Microsoft marked the formal end of mainstream support for consumer editions of Windows 10 — a milestone that stops routine feature updates, standard technical assistance, and the normal cadence of security fixes for unenrolled consumer devices. Microsoft simultaneously published a consumer Extended Security Updates (ESU) path to offer a one‑year security-only bridge for eligible devices through October 13, 2026. Despite the calendar date, real-world adoption and device inventories rarely flip overnight. Two complementary data streams now shape the public debate: (1) vendor and OEM remarks grounded in channel and installed-base telemetry, and (2) pageview-weighted market trackers that sample web traffic to estimate active OS usage. Those two views reach different but overlapping conclusions: Windows 10 remains widely used at scale, while Windows 11 has closed the gap and — by some tracker measures — overtaken it in active web usage.

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What Dell Said — and why it matters​

Dell’s investor framing​

On a recent Dell Technologies earnings call, COO Jeffrey Clarke offered blunt installed‑base math that has become the source of the “one billion still on Windows 10” headline: Dell estimates an installed base of roughly 1.5 billion PCs, of which about 500 million devices are technically capable of running Windows 11 but remain on Windows 10, and another ~500 million devices are effectively too old or incompatible to upgrade under Microsoft’s Windows 11 hardware baseline. Clarke presented the split as both a constraint on OEM growth and an addressable opportunity for PC refresh cycles and “AI PC” product pushes.

How to read Dell’s numbers​

Dell’s figures are important because they convert abstract percentages into absolute units that matter to OEMs, retailers and corporate planners. But they are also a vendor’s market read, offered in an investor call with a commercial frame. The numbers:

• Are directional telemetry based on Dell’s channel and installed-base visibility, not an audited global census.
• Use rounded figures and shorthand (500M/500M) that simplify a complex distribution of device ages, firmware states, and OEM update policies.
• Serve a purpose in investor communications: they justify product roadmaps and the idea that a large latent pool of upgrade demand still exists.

Independent outlets and transcripts captured Clarke’s comments verbatim, and multiple reputable publications reproduced the quote; that consistency across reporting strengthens the claim that Dell made the remarks exactly as reported. Still, treat the rounded global totals as estimates rather than an exact inventory count.

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What the trackers say: StatCounter and market telemetry​

Public market trackers offer a different — but complementary — lens. StatCounter’s pageview‑weighted snapshot for October 2025 shows Windows 11 at ~55.17% and Windows 10 at ~41.74% on the desktop, a crossover driven by late‑cycle migration activity ahead of Windows 10’s support cutoff. These figures are widely cited in press coverage as the proximate reason Windows 11 is now described as the “most used” desktop Windows version by that measurement. A few important caveats about tracker data:

• StatCounter measures pageviews from its global browsing panel, not a device-by-device installed-base census. That yields a fast-moving signal about which OS versions are generating web traffic, and it can over- or under‑represent segments (for example, enterprise vs. consumer, or regions with different browsing patterns).
• Different trackers and analytic methodologies (web telemetry, enterprise asset inventories, OEM shipment tallies) yield different percentages. The direction — that Windows 11 has gained materially and that Windows 10 still accounts for a very large share — is consistent across sources, even if the decimals vary.

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Microsoft’s posture and the ESU safety valve​

The official position​

Microsoft’s lifecycle documentation is straightforward: Windows 10 consumer support ended on October 14, 2025; devices will continue to run, but Microsoft no longer provides routine security or feature updates to unenrolled consumer devices after that date. To ease migration, Microsoft created a consumer ESU program to deliver security‑only updates for enrolled Windows 10 devices through October 13, 2026. The ESU program is explicitly a migration bridge, not a long-term support plan.

How consumers can enroll in ESU (practical mechanics)​

Microsoft rolled the ESU enrollment experience into Settings → Update & Security → Windows Update with an “Enroll now” wizard for eligible devices. Consumer enrollment options that have been described in Microsoft documentation and independent reporting include:

• Free path: sign in with a Microsoft account and enable Windows Backup / Settings sync to OneDrive (this route provides free ESU entitlement in many jurisdictions).
• Microsoft Rewards: redeem 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points to obtain ESU enrollment.
• Paid option: a one‑time purchase (commonly reported at roughly $30 USD) to cover the ESU entitlement for consumer devices tied to a Microsoft account.

These enrollment mechanics were rolled out gradually and carry prerequisites: the device must be on Windows 10, version 22H2 and current with required cumulative updates. The ESU entitlement is account‑tied and intended as a one‑year security bridge through October 13, 2026. Microsoft also made regional adjustments (notably concessions for the EEA) after consumer group actions.

Ambiguity and consumer reaction​

The free sign-in/OneDrive route and the rewards path provoked intense discussion about data‑linkage and consumer choice. European consumer groups successfully pressed Microsoft for concessions in the EEA to avoid coupling essential security updates to ancillary services. That outcome illustrates how regulatory pressure and public scrutiny can reshape product flows and clarifies that ESU mechanics may differ by region. Where Microsoft has been explicit — the dates, the security‑only scope, and the enrollment workflow — the company’s documentation is authoritative; where Microsoft uses marketing phrases like “nearly a billion,” the meaning of that shorthand is ambiguous without an audit‑grade definition.

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Why so many PCs remain on Windows 10​

There are five overlapping, well-documented reasons the migration has been slow and uneven.

• Hardware gating: Windows 11 introduced a stricter baseline (TPM 2.0, UEFI Secure Boot, supported CPU families and generations). Many otherwise healthy machines — including laptops only a few years old — were left off the supported list and therefore require replacement rather than in-place upgrades. That hardware gate is the single largest technical blocker.
• Organizational inertia and compatibility testing: Enterprises typically validate mission-critical applications, drivers, and management tooling extensively before rolling out a new OS across thousands of endpoints. The cost and risk of mass deployment delays adoption.
• Perceived value vs. cost: For many consumers, Windows 10 still “works.” The visible differences in Windows 11 — UI refinements, Copilot integration, some security enhancements — don’t justify buying new hardware for users who are satisfied with performance and compatibility on their current machines.
• The ESU safety valve: A one‑year ESU window lowers the immediate pressure to upgrade, especially where enrollment options include free or low‑cost paths, reducing panic-driven mass upgrades and smoothing refresh cycles.
• Sustainability and cost constraints: Replacing hundreds of millions of still-functional PCs has economic and environmental consequences. E‑waste concerns, budget limitations, and refurbishment pathways all influence decisions to delay hardware refresh.

These factors combine: hardware eligibility cuts the install base into multiple classes (can upgrade now; can’t upgrade without hardware; could be made compatible with firmware updates but need validation), and each class follows a different migration timeline.

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Security, compliance, and operational risk​

The practical consequence of falling off vendor support is unambiguous: vulnerabilities discovered after the cutoff will not be patched on unenrolled Windows 10 devices, creating increased exposure to ransomware, credential theft, and other attacks. For regulated industries, insurers, and organizations with compliance requirements, continuing to run unsupported Windows 10 endpoints without appropriate compensating controls or ESU coverage is a material risk. Key risk considerations:

• Unsupported machines can become targets for “forever‑day” exploitation when patches for newer OSes reveal techniques attackers can adapt.
• Consumer ESU is security-only — no feature or non-security fixes and no comprehensive technical support — so ESU reduces immediate exposure but is not a long-term mitigation strategy.
• The one-year ESU window pushes the problem into procurement cycles for 2026: will organizations accept a second-year commercial ESU cost, or will replacement budgets accelerate?

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Market and OEM implications​

Dell framed the numbers as both a near-term headwind to unit growth and a long-term opportunity for higher‑value replacement devices, especially as vendors position new machines around AI hardware features (NPUs, on-device inference) and Copilot+ PC experiences. That framing has three commercial implications:

• Staggered upgrade demand: Because some devices simply cannot be upgraded, OEMs may see steady replacement demand rather than a single surge.
• Higher ASP focus: The most immediate purchases may target higher-margin “AI PC” SKUs rather than low-end refresh units.
• Channel complexity: Retailers and enterprise resellers must manage trade-in, refurbishment, and recycling channels responsibly to avoid e‑waste backlash.

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Practical checklist: what users and IT teams should do now​

• Inventory and classify devices by Windows 10 version (confirm 22H2), hardware capability, and management state.
• Run Microsoft’s PC Health Check or equivalent tools to determine Windows 11 eligibility and identify the specific gating factor (TPM, Secure Boot, CPU generation).
• Prioritize critical endpoints for early upgrade pilots, focusing on application compatibility, peripheral support, and driver availability.
• If immediate upgrade is impossible, enroll eligible consumer devices into the ESU program (Settings → Update & Security → Windows Update → Enroll now) before enrollment windows close. Options often include a free OneDrive/backup sync path, Rewards redemption, or a paid one‑time purchase; confirm regional differences.

For small businesses and households:

• Consider whether ESU (the consumer paths) or commercial ESU (volume licensing for managed fleets) suits your needs. Commercial ESU pricing is typically higher and intended for enterprise scenarios.
• Explore alternatives for older hardware: Linux distributions, ChromeOS Flex, or efficient cloud‑based desktops can extend device usefulness while reducing security risk.

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Critical analysis: strengths, weaknesses, and the hidden risks​

Strengths of the current approach​

• A pragmatic bridge: Microsoft’s consumer ESU program is a realistic compromise — a time-limited, low-cost (or free) path that recognizes that not every device can or should be replaced immediately. It reduces abrupt risk while enabling orderly migration.
• Clear policy dates: Microsoft set firm dates and publicized them, allowing IT teams to plan with a calendar rather than ambiguous “sunset” signals. That clarity helps procurement cycles.

Weaknesses and risks​

• Measurement mismatch: OEM estimates (like Dell’s 1.5B/500M/500M framing) and web‑telemetry trackers (StatCounter’s pageview share) measure different phenomena. The consequence is fractured public messaging: marketing soundbites (“nearly a billion rely on Windows 11”) can be read as contradictory to OEM-installed-base readings unless definitions are explicit. That ambiguity undermines confident planning for CIOs who need audit‑grade inventories.
• Privacy & consumer choice friction: Tying free ESU enrollment to cloud sync or a Microsoft account raised reasonable consumer concerns about product coupling. Even if Microsoft offered alternatives (Rewards or paid purchase), the optics — and regulatory scrutiny in the EEA — created negative press and legal attention. The subsequent regional carve‑outs are evidence of the reputational cost.
• E‑waste and sustainability: A forced or accelerated hardware refresh raises environmental and social responsibility questions that OEMs and governments will increasingly weigh. The economics of replacement versus remediation (ESU, Linux, refurbishment) differ by region and buyer segment; that complexity will prolong the transition.
• Long‑tail security fragmentation: Even with ESU uptake, hundreds of millions of devices on divergent support paths create a long tail of patching complexity for software vendors and security researchers. This fragmentation increases the operational burden on vulnerability management and elevates systemic risk.

Unverifiable claims and cautionary language​

• Corporate marketing phrases such as “nearly a billion people rely on Windows 11” are ambiguous by design. They convey momentum but do not define the metric (monthly active devices, unique signed‑in users, or licensed seats). Until Microsoft publishes an auditable definition, treat such phrases as shorthand, not a precise count.
• Dell’s precise 500M/500M split is useful context but not an independently audited global census; it should inform planning but not replace fleet‑level inventories where procurement decisions are at stake.

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The near-term outlook​

• The migration will remain multi‑year and segmented: some users will upgrade quickly, others will enroll in ESU, and a nontrivial cohort will explore alternatives or endure unsupported usage. OEMs will chase upgradeable and high‑margin segments (AI PC SKUs) while channel operations navigate trade‑ins and refurbishment programs.
• October 2026 — the end of the consumer ESU window — is the next operational milestone. That date will concentrate decision-making for households and small organizations that accepted the ESU bridge. The question for 2026 is whether a second-year, large-scale commercial ESU offering (at enterprise price points) becomes the default for late adopters, or whether replacement budgets and refurb programs accelerate.

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Conclusion​

The story is simple in headline and complex in practice: Windows 10 continues to power an enormous number of active PCs, and the transition to Windows 11 has been slower and more fractured than many anticipated. Dell’s investor call crystallized that reality with blunt numbers — roughly 1.5 billion devices in the installed base, with hundreds of millions either blocked by hardware gates or simply not yet upgraded — while StatCounter and other trackers show that Windows 11 has nevertheless gained meaningful share in active web usage. Microsoft’s consumer ESU program buys a one‑year safety window for many users, but it is a bridge — not a destination.
For users and IT leaders the immediate imperative is straightforward: inventory now, classify devices by upgrade eligibility, enroll eligible devices in ESU if needed, and plan refresh cycles with an eye to application compatibility, sustainability, and real budget constraints. For the industry, the transition is an opportunity to do upgrades responsibly: automate validation, prioritize high‑risk endpoints, and make trade‑in/refurbishment programs central to refresh economics.
The numeric headlines — one billion Windows 10 users, 500 million upgrade-capable holdouts, 500 million left behind by Windows 11’s hardware gate — are useful frames. They are not gospel. Treat them as directional inputs; verify with fleet telemetry, and use Microsoft’s lifecycle dates and ESU mechanics as the operational schedule for migration projects.

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Source: مينا تك Even after end of service, Windows 10 still has 1 billion users | MENA TECH