Windows 11 Market Share Decline in 2025: Factors, Trends, and Future Outlook

Despite its steady momentum over the past year, Windows 11’s global market share entered a period of unexpected deceleration this past May, raising questions about user adoption, loyalty, and the shifting preferences of the global PC community. According to the latest Statcounter data, Windows 11 witnessed a drop in worldwide market share, slipping from 47.32% to 43.23% within a single month—a modest but significant decline that contrasts sharply with the operating system’s previous upward trajectory. In the wake of this shift, Windows 10 not only maintained its dominance but even eked out a fractional gain, bumping its share up to 53.19%.

Windows 11’s Global Adoption: A Slowdown in Perspective​

Viewed in the context of operating system lifecycles, the stalling of Windows 11’s growth is as newsworthy as its original ascent. Since its launch, Windows 11 has enjoyed surging adoption rates, spurred by Microsoft's aggressive marketing, streamlined interface, and system-wide performance upgrades catering to both general users and power users alike. Statcounter’s figures, while not infallible due to sampling methods, do reflect broad market movements—tracking the installation data from millions of websites and millions of devices worldwide.
Historically, new Windows versions have faced hurdles in reaching mass adoption, often being hampered by compatibility concerns, enterprise inertia, and user skepticism. Yet, as recently as a year ago, Windows 11’s market share was just 26.19%. By May 2025, that share had shot up to 43.23%, constituting an impressive 17-point leap in the span of twelve months. Given this context, May’s decline—however moderate—has caught the attention of analysts and end users.

Regional Trends: A Mixed Picture for Windows 11​

Delving deeper into Statcounter’s regional breakdown reveals a nuanced narrative. In the United States, often a bellwether for broader Windows trends, Windows 11 remains the most widely used version. Nonetheless, the system saw a tangible reduction in share, slipping from 56.36% to 52.94% in May. Canada exhibited a similar trend, with a decrease to 50.65%, down 2.05 percentage points.
Conversely, the United Kingdom provides an instructive counter-example. There, Windows 11 notched a new all-time high, climbing to 57.12%—a notable 1.43-point increase. These variances highlight local factors such as enterprise upgrade cycles, government technology mandates, and regional differences in PC retail channels.

Table: Statcounter Market Share Estimates (May 2025)​

Region	Windows 10 (%)	Windows 11 (%)	Change in Win11 vs. April
Worldwide	53.19	43.23	-4.09
United States	—	52.94	-3.42
Canada	—	50.65	-2.05
United Kingdom	—	57.12	+1.43

Note: “—” denotes figures not specifically reported for Windows 10 in those regions for May 2025
All data from Statcounter via Neowin, caution advised for sampling methods.

Windows 10: The Stalwart​

While Windows 11’s short-term fortunes softened, Windows 10’s resilience comes as little surprise to those familiar with historical precedents. Since its release in 2015, Windows 10 has entrenched itself as the backbone of both consumer and enterprise computing. As of May 2025, Statcounter data shows its market share inching upwards, counterbalancing Windows 11’s slowdown.
The reasons behind Windows 10’s enduring popularity are manifold:

• Legacy Hardware Support: Windows 10 remains friendlier to older PCs, particularly those lacking TPM 2.0 modules or sufficient processing power for Windows 11.
• Familiarity and Stability: For businesses and institutions, the cost and risk of major upgrades often outweigh the perceived benefits.
• Extended Support Options: Microsoft, as seen with Windows 7’s post-EOL paid update programs, is already preparing similar extended security update schemes for enterprises choosing to stay with Windows 10 beyond its official end of support in October 2025.

Persistent Holdouts: Windows 7, XP, 8.1​

Despite being technically obsolete and unsupported, legacy Windows versions continue to occupy a small but persistent share of the global desktop landscape. According to Statcounter:

• Windows 7: 2.48% market share (+0.02 points)
• Windows XP: 0.54% (+0.16)
• Windows 8.1: 0.29% (+0.01)

These stubborn holdouts represent millions of machines, particularly in regions where hardware budgets are tight or regulatory frameworks slow the pace of upgrades. Such persistence is not without risk; unsupported systems are highly vulnerable to malware, ransomware, and other security threats.

Factors Behind the Slowdown​

Technical Requirements Remain a Barrier​

One of the most persistent headwinds for Windows 11 is its stricter hardware compatibility list. The requirement for TPM 2.0 security chips, Secure Boot, and relatively recent CPUs excludes a significant portion of PCs that happily run Windows 10. For many users, especially those in developing or budget-sensitive markets, the cost of new hardware far outweighs Windows 11’s incremental benefits.

Feature Set and User Reception​

Windows 11’s hallmark features—including a reorganized taskbar, new Microsoft Store, Snap Layouts, and deeper integration with AI-powered Copilot—have garnered both praise and criticism. While many laud the streamlined interface and performance refinements, others lament the removal of beloved customization options or the introduction of changes that break established workflows.
Critical user feedback commonly revolves around:

• Reduced taskbar flexibility (loss of drag-and-drop and ungroup options, since partially restored in later updates)
• Start menu design and removal of live tiles
• Default requirement for internet connectivity and Microsoft account login during setup

Enterprise Momentum and App Compatibility​

For IT departments managing thousands of endpoints, the prospect of retraining staff, updating legacy applications, and confirming device compatibility makes migration a formidable, costly undertaking. Although Microsoft provides robust deployment tools with Intune, Windows Autopilot, and System Center, enterprises tend to adopt new Windows versions in a staggered, cautious manner.
Many organizations are only now completing (or still in the midst of) migrations from Windows 7 or 8.1 to Windows 10, reinforcing institutional risk-aversion. Unless there is a clear business case—be it enhanced security, application performance, or compliance—most will delay the jump to Windows 11.

Microsoft's Influence and Messaging​

Microsoft has maintained an ambitious schedule of updates, using phased rollouts and targeted messaging to encourage adoption. Promotions, hardware bundling, and direct upgrade campaigns signal Redmond’s intent to move users forward. Yet, with mixed messaging about support deadlines, feature parity, and hardware requirements, some users remain cautious.

Security and Support: The Looming 2025 Deadline​

The most critical inflection point for this market dynamic is October 2025, when Windows 10 reaches official end-of-support status. At that juncture, mainstream security updates and feature enhancements will cease for most users, with only paid extended security updates available for businesses.
This well-known deadline is widely expected to catalyze a surge in Windows 11 upgrades, particularly for businesses bound by cybersecurity regulations. However, past experience—namely Windows 7’s protracted tail—suggests many users will cling to Windows 10 as long as possible, either via extended paid programs or unsupported installations.
Microsoft and its partner ecosystem are already preparing for this scenario. Several third-party vendors have announced plans to provide “unofficial” extended updates or maintenance for Windows 10 post-2025; but the reliability and security of such offerings will likely vary and merit close scrutiny before adoption.

What’s Next for Windows 11 and Its Ecosystem?​

AI Features and the Copilot Era​

One of the cornerstones of Windows 11’s value proposition is its deep integration of Microsoft Copilot, a generative AI assistant designed to enhance productivity, search, and workflow automation. The inclusion of Copilot—shipped as part of cumulative updates in 2024 and 2025—demonstrates Microsoft’s long-term vision for blending AI into the core OS experience.
For power users and enterprises, these AI-powered features promise workflow enhancements and digital assistance unreachable on Windows 10. Whether these innovations are enough to coax late adopters remains to be seen, especially as Microsoft must walk a fine line between novelty and user empowerment.

Hardware-Accelerated Upgrades​

Windows 11 is designed to take fuller advantage of advancements in modern CPUs, GPUs, and NVMe storage, bringing improved battery performance, quicker wake-from-sleep, and expanded support for DirectStorage in gaming. As the installed base of compatible hardware grows, the performance benefits of Windows 11 may begin to outweigh the friction of migration for a broader swath of users.

App Store Evolution​

The Microsoft Store has received a long-awaited overhaul in Windows 11, with higher quality standards, expanded support for Win32 and Android apps, and tighter integration with subscription services like Xbox Game Pass and Microsoft 365. These improvements open the platform to more developers and possibilities, though user reviews remain mixed about app discovery and curation.

Critical Analysis: Strengths and Weaknesses​

Notable Strengths​

• Prolonged Innovation Cycle: Windows 11 is serving as the main launchpad for AI-powered features that are likely to undergird the Windows ecosystem for years to come.
• Improved Security: The requirement for secure boot, TPM 2.0, and other modern security protocols marks a significant evolution in end-user and enterprise security baselines.
• Enhanced Visuals and Accessibility: A redesigned interface, higher DPI support, and accessibility enhancements reflect Microsoft’s commitment to inclusivity and modern design language.
• Better App Ecosystem: With progressive web apps, native Win32, and Android compatibility, the barriers between platforms and devices continue to break down.

Potential Risks​

• Fragmentation: With a sizable population sticking to Windows 10 (and some to Windows 7/8.1), developers face fragmentation risk, often forced to support legacy APIs and user experiences longer than optimal.
• Upgrade Fatigue: Users in both home and business environments may feel upgrade fatigue, spurred by the frequency and depth of updates, particularly when feature changes are perceived as iterative rather than revolutionary.
• Hardware Exclusion: The hardware requirements, while justifiable on security grounds, risk excluding millions of lower-end or older PCs, raising e-waste and digital divide concerns.
• Third-Party Update Ecosystem: As with prior end-of-life scenarios, the emergence of unofficial third-party update solutions introduces uncertainty over update quality and security.

The Broader Competitive Landscape​

Windows vs. macOS and Linux​

Against the backdrop of Windows’ evolution, macOS and Linux have both made incremental gains in global desktop OS share. However, Windows remains by far the dominant force in desktop and laptop deployments, especially in business, education, and gaming sectors.
Apple’s approach—controlling both hardware and software—enables a more seamless migration strategy, but the company’s macOS remains at a fraction of Windows’ installed base. Linux, despite its advances in usability and hardware support, is similarly niche outside specific verticals.

Chromebooks and the Cloud​

Another wild card in future market share battles is the rise of Chromebooks and web-first devices, favored in education and certain enterprise settings. While these systems generally avoid the complexity of Windows installation and updating, they pose a nontrivial threat to low-end PCs—precisely the segment most affected by Windows 11 hardware requirements.

Recommendations for Users and IT Departments​

For Home Users​

• Review Hardware Compatibility: Use Microsoft's PC Health Check or equivalent tools to determine if current devices are Windows 11-ready. Consider upgrade paths or maintenance plans for unsupported systems.
• Plan for the Support Deadline: Mark October 2025 on the calendar; plan gradual migration to Windows 11 to avoid last-minute disruptions and potential security lapses.
• Back Up Data: Prioritize robust backup strategies during any migration, ensuring data safety throughout the transition.

For Enterprises​

• Evaluate Extended Support Options: Understand and budget for Microsoft’s paid extended security updates for Windows 10 if migrations cannot be completed in time.
• Test Workloads Thoroughly: Pilot Windows 11 deployment in sandbox environments; validate mission-critical software for compatibility before rolling out organization-wide.
• Educate End Users: Focus on training and support for new features, emphasizing the benefits and addressing common pain points.

Conclusion: Temporary Pause or Lasting Trend?​

The recent deceleration in Windows 11’s growth, while notable, is unlikely to prevail as a long-term trend. Historical cycles suggest lulls in adoption often precede major surges, particularly as end-of-support deadlines approach and hardware upgrades become unavoidable. Although May 2025’s market share dip is a cautionary signal, no credible evidence suggests Windows 11 is facing a persistent crisis of confidence among Windows users.
Nonetheless, the episode underscores the complexity of OS migration—where technical, economic, and human factors are inexorably entwined. For Microsoft, the challenge will be to articulate Windows 11’s value in terms that make sense for every segment of its vast user base, while ensuring that progress does not come at the cost of accessibility or trust.
For users—both everyday consumers and IT professionals—the message is clear: keep a close eye on upgrade opportunities, weigh the costs and benefits carefully, and be wary of unofficial update solutions post-EOL. The real Windows transition story may just be getting started.

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Source: Neowin Windows 11's growth slowed down in May 2025