A seismic shift is underway in the Windows landscape, and it’s shaping up to be one of the most pivotal moments in PC history. As the October end-of-life deadline for Windows 10 fast approaches, nearly 500 million users still face a daunting choice: upgrade to Windows 11 and ensure continued security updates, or cling to a familiar operating system at real and growing risk. The latest data and warnings from both industry players and cybersecurity experts leave little ambiguity—this is not a moment for complacency.
Microsoft’s decision to end free security updates for Windows 10 in October is hardly a surprise—long-term support cycles for versions of Windows have been a constant for decades. But the scale of the transition is unprecedented. According to Statcounter and recent Statista analyses, just over half of all desktops globally still run Windows 10, while Windows 11 adoption, though growing, continues to lag behind expectations.
For context, Microsoft announced in 2021 that Windows 10’s general support would end in October 2025. That's left users and enterprises with four years to prepare. However, as of the most recent data, nearly 750 million PCs still run Windows 10, and a staggering 500 million of those are eligible for a free Windows 11 upgrade but have not yet taken the plunge. The reason? A complex mix of hardware compatibility frustrations, upgrade inertia, and skepticism about Windows 11’s value proposition.
The consequences of operating an unsupported OS are well documented. Without regular security patches, newly discovered vulnerabilities remain unaddressed and publicly documented exploits multiply. This turbocharges malware creation and makes the millions of PCs stuck on Windows 10 lucrative targets for cybercriminals. For consumers, this raises the risk of identity theft and data loss; for businesses, it could mean GDPR violations, reputation damage, and costly incident response.
What differentiates Windows 11, according to manufacturers and Microsoft alike, is this AI-first posture. Copilot promises enhanced productivity, creative tools, and a native edge over older versions. Yet industry surveys confirm that AI PCs remain a niche proposition—most users are not yet convinced these features are must-haves rather than marketing gimmicks. Windows 11’s core appeal remains its promise of futureproofing, with security updates long beyond Windows 10’s looming sunset.
However, not everyone is so lucky. Of the 750 million still on Windows 10, at least 240 million devices are ineligible for Windows 11. These are often older PCs—pre-2018 models—that fail to meet requirements such as TPM 2.0, Secure Boot, and specific processor generations. For these users, choices grow starker: continue without updates, pay for enterprise-grade Extended Security Updates (ESU), which are pricey and limited in scope for home users, or invest in new hardware.
Microsoft’s ESU program formerly catered only to enterprises, but with Windows 10’s sheer install base, it has reluctantly offered paid 12-month extensions for home users. Yet prices remain prohibitive for most, signaling Microsoft’s clear preference for driving hardware turnover and Windows 11 adoption instead.
This is critical: For all the headlines about the inevitability of Windows 11, Windows 10’s active user base is not declining in a straight line. Some analysts speculate that as the end-of-life date looms, marginal users are wary of risking a rushed upgrade. Others cite perceived issues with performance, compatibility, or privacy as drivers keeping people on Windows 10.
The situation is paradoxical. The longer users delay, the tighter the window to upgrade before October—and the more exposed they are to unpatched threats after that point.
Beyond raw cost, there’s a compliance issue. Certain sectors—healthcare, finance, government—face external pressure to keep systems patched and supported. The specter of running unsupported Windows 10 after October raises the risk of regulatory penalties and insurance increases, to say nothing of reputational harm if a preventable breach occurs.
There’s also a cohort of hobbyists and legacy gamers who cling to specific hardware or feature sets more easily accessed in Windows 10—think custom builds, older peripherals, or even the notorious love for the legacy Control Panel interface.
For the unlucky 240 million with ineligible PCs, things are especially tough. Microsoft’s solution, buy a new computer, is neither cheap nor welcome in the midst of persistent global inflation. Paid ESUs for home users, while technically an option, are widely criticized as a “ransom” rather than a solution, given annual costs can quickly exceed the value of an old PC.
Unlike Windows XP, the scale with Windows 10 is far broader and the stakes higher. The internet and cloud services are even more deeply woven into the fabric of work and life, and endpoint security is more critical to organizational and personal safety than ever before.
Experts warn that even those who “know what they’re doing” by relying on third-party security tools will eventually be left exposed, as OS-level vulnerabilities compound and attackers focus fire on huge clusters of unpatched machines.
Copilot, while nascent, points toward a future of embedded AI productivity and tailored user experiences. Integration with Microsoft's Edge browser, Office suite, and cloud services is tight, if not always universally praised. The update cadence is less frantic than in early Windows 10 years, and system performance on supported hardware is broadly comparable or better.
From a support perspective, Windows 11 is the only path to guaranteed updates through the end of the decade. For those able and willing to upgrade, this represents peace of mind and an easier compliance story.
Critics also flag persistent privacy questions around data collection, especially as AI and cloud integration deepen. Some businesses resist retraining or losing key legacy features. And the mixed upgrade experience—ranging from smooth for many to disastrous for a vocal minority—means hesitation persists.
Moreover, there’s the issue of timing. Should users rush to upgrade now, or wait for further bug-fixes and feature updates before making the leap? Tech forums are filled with stories on both sides—those grateful for the move, and those still troubleshooting compatibility headaches.
The enduring lesson for users and organizations is that doing nothing is the riskiest option of all. While Microsoft’s strategy draws fair criticisms—particularly around hardware requirements, cost, and environmental impact—the direction is clear. Staying current is no longer a “nice to have” but a basic requirement for digital safety in an increasingly hostile internet landscape.
For the nearly 500 million with a choice, the best window to act is now—not when exploits become headline news or regulatory fines land. For the rest, it’s time to chart an alternate course, whether by budgeting for new hardware or exploring different platforms.
As the clock ticks down, every month will see sharper warnings and greater urgency. Those who act now will be better protected and less stressed when the deadline arrives. For the Windows community and the tech industry at large, how this transition unfolds will echo far into the future.
Source: Forbes Microsoft’s Bad News—500 Million Windows Users Must Now Decide
Windows 10’s Sunset: Countdown to Vulnerability
Microsoft’s decision to end free security updates for Windows 10 in October is hardly a surprise—long-term support cycles for versions of Windows have been a constant for decades. But the scale of the transition is unprecedented. According to Statcounter and recent Statista analyses, just over half of all desktops globally still run Windows 10, while Windows 11 adoption, though growing, continues to lag behind expectations.For context, Microsoft announced in 2021 that Windows 10’s general support would end in October 2025. That's left users and enterprises with four years to prepare. However, as of the most recent data, nearly 750 million PCs still run Windows 10, and a staggering 500 million of those are eligible for a free Windows 11 upgrade but have not yet taken the plunge. The reason? A complex mix of hardware compatibility frustrations, upgrade inertia, and skepticism about Windows 11’s value proposition.
Security Risks: “Magnets for Threats”
The urgency is amplified by warnings about rising cybersecurity threats. FBI advisories and numerous security firms have described unpatched, unsupported versions of Windows as “magnets for security threats”—from ransomware to targeted state-sponsored attacks. Windows 10 will become one such magnet in October at scale.The consequences of operating an unsupported OS are well documented. Without regular security patches, newly discovered vulnerabilities remain unaddressed and publicly documented exploits multiply. This turbocharges malware creation and makes the millions of PCs stuck on Windows 10 lucrative targets for cybercriminals. For consumers, this raises the risk of identity theft and data loss; for businesses, it could mean GDPR violations, reputation damage, and costly incident response.
The Windows 11 Dilemma: Copilot, AI PCs, and Futureproofing
Microsoft’s broader strategy is rooted in a shift not just to a new OS, but to a new category of “AI PCs,” driven in part by the built-in Copilot generative AI assistant. Asus, among other manufacturers, has been explicit: “If you’re still using Windows 10 or, dare we say it, something even older—your computer’s days of regular updates and support are numbered”.What differentiates Windows 11, according to manufacturers and Microsoft alike, is this AI-first posture. Copilot promises enhanced productivity, creative tools, and a native edge over older versions. Yet industry surveys confirm that AI PCs remain a niche proposition—most users are not yet convinced these features are must-haves rather than marketing gimmicks. Windows 11’s core appeal remains its promise of futureproofing, with security updates long beyond Windows 10’s looming sunset.
Upgrade Options: Free for Many, Expensive Extensions for Others
A key point of confusion regards the costs and logistics of upgrading. For all PCs meeting Windows 11’s hardware requirements, Microsoft continues to offer a free upgrade via the Windows Update process. This should, in theory, simplify the migration for the bulk of users.However, not everyone is so lucky. Of the 750 million still on Windows 10, at least 240 million devices are ineligible for Windows 11. These are often older PCs—pre-2018 models—that fail to meet requirements such as TPM 2.0, Secure Boot, and specific processor generations. For these users, choices grow starker: continue without updates, pay for enterprise-grade Extended Security Updates (ESU), which are pricey and limited in scope for home users, or invest in new hardware.
Microsoft’s ESU program formerly catered only to enterprises, but with Windows 10’s sheer install base, it has reluctantly offered paid 12-month extensions for home users. Yet prices remain prohibitive for most, signaling Microsoft’s clear preference for driving hardware turnover and Windows 11 adoption instead.
Market Dynamics: Stubborn Windows 10 Market Share
Statcounter’s end-of-May report reveals an arresting reality. A month ago, Windows 11 in the U.S. overtook Windows 10 for the first time, achieving over 56% market share versus Windows 10’s 41%. But globally, the reversal is incomplete. Windows 10 market share ticked up slightly month-over-month in May (remaining just above 50%), while Windows 11’s share dipped, breaking a four-month growth pattern. This suggests not only inertia but potentially a backlash or at least a pause in upgrade momentum.This is critical: For all the headlines about the inevitability of Windows 11, Windows 10’s active user base is not declining in a straight line. Some analysts speculate that as the end-of-life date looms, marginal users are wary of risking a rushed upgrade. Others cite perceived issues with performance, compatibility, or privacy as drivers keeping people on Windows 10.
The situation is paradoxical. The longer users delay, the tighter the window to upgrade before October—and the more exposed they are to unpatched threats after that point.
The Enterprise Conundrum: Cost, Compliance, Complexity
For businesses, the calculus is even thornier. Large enterprises with custom hardware, legacy software, or complex regulatory requirements face non-trivial costs in upgrading thousands of endpoints. The price of ESU licensing could be significant, especially for organizations with lean IT budgets. Moreover, the logistical hurdles of refreshing fleets of workstations, retraining staff, and ensuring application compatibility create friction and risk business continuity.Beyond raw cost, there’s a compliance issue. Certain sectors—healthcare, finance, government—face external pressure to keep systems patched and supported. The specter of running unsupported Windows 10 after October raises the risk of regulatory penalties and insurance increases, to say nothing of reputational harm if a preventable breach occurs.
The Home User Predicament: Upgrade Guilt, Confusion, and Costs
Home users, too, feel the squeeze. Many remain unaware that the upgrade is both free and necessary for most, relying on the common but misguided assumption that security risks only hit businesses. Some have reservations about Windows 11’s new interface, hardware requirements, and telemetry. Others simply struggle with upgrade anxiety—the fair fear that something will break in the process.There’s also a cohort of hobbyists and legacy gamers who cling to specific hardware or feature sets more easily accessed in Windows 10—think custom builds, older peripherals, or even the notorious love for the legacy Control Panel interface.
For the unlucky 240 million with ineligible PCs, things are especially tough. Microsoft’s solution, buy a new computer, is neither cheap nor welcome in the midst of persistent global inflation. Paid ESUs for home users, while technically an option, are widely criticized as a “ransom” rather than a solution, given annual costs can quickly exceed the value of an old PC.
Risks of Delay: A Cybersecurity Nightmare?
The cybersecurity community is increasingly sounding alarms, projecting a potential post-October spike in ransomware, botnet infections, and data breaches targeting Windows 10. The infamous end-of-life for Windows XP, which saw a rapid escalation in abandoned-but-still-connected PCs targeted by malware, offers a cautionary tale.Unlike Windows XP, the scale with Windows 10 is far broader and the stakes higher. The internet and cloud services are even more deeply woven into the fabric of work and life, and endpoint security is more critical to organizational and personal safety than ever before.
Experts warn that even those who “know what they’re doing” by relying on third-party security tools will eventually be left exposed, as OS-level vulnerabilities compound and attackers focus fire on huge clusters of unpatched machines.
Notable Strengths: What Windows 11 Gets Right
Despite mixed feelings, Windows 11 is hardly just glossy marketing. Leading analysts agree it’s a significant security step-up. Requirements like TPM 2.0 and Secure Boot, once derided as restrictive, are increasingly understood as fundamental to modern endpoint hardening. Windows 11 also ships with better memory integrity, virtualization-based security, and improved update mechanisms.Copilot, while nascent, points toward a future of embedded AI productivity and tailored user experiences. Integration with Microsoft's Edge browser, Office suite, and cloud services is tight, if not always universally praised. The update cadence is less frantic than in early Windows 10 years, and system performance on supported hardware is broadly comparable or better.
From a support perspective, Windows 11 is the only path to guaranteed updates through the end of the decade. For those able and willing to upgrade, this represents peace of mind and an easier compliance story.
Key Risks: Upgrade Headaches and Left-Behind Users
But the risks and criticisms are real. The hardware requirements mean “left-behind” users number in the hundreds of millions, creating both digital waste and frustration. The free upgrade story is undermined by the shadow of forced obsolescence, environmental impact, and cost barriers to new devices.Critics also flag persistent privacy questions around data collection, especially as AI and cloud integration deepen. Some businesses resist retraining or losing key legacy features. And the mixed upgrade experience—ranging from smooth for many to disastrous for a vocal minority—means hesitation persists.
Moreover, there’s the issue of timing. Should users rush to upgrade now, or wait for further bug-fixes and feature updates before making the leap? Tech forums are filled with stories on both sides—those grateful for the move, and those still troubleshooting compatibility headaches.
What Should Users Do Right Now? Actionable Steps
Given all these headwinds, what is the best path forward for the hundreds of millions still facing this decision?For Eligible Devices:
- Upgrade as soon as possible. Don’t leave it until October—give yourself ample time to spot and troubleshoot any issues.
- Back up all data before upgrading. Ideally, use both cloud and offline local backups.
- Check device compatibility using Microsoft’s PC Health Check Tool to avoid mid-upgrade surprises.
- Update all drivers and third-party applications prior to the upgrade for best results.
- Consider clean installation for the most reliable migration, especially on older hardware.
For Ineligible Devices:
- Evaluate ESU options if the device must stay online and security is paramount, but compare costs carefully.
- Plan for replacement. Seek budget deals or refurbished PCs, or consider alternative operating systems such as Linux if feasible.
- Segment vulnerable PCs, keeping them off critical networks or isolating risk.
For Business and IT Professionals:
- Inventory all Windows 10 endpoints and triage by criticality.
- Develop a staged upgrade plan, prioritizing compliance-heavy sectors first.
- Consult with vendors and test workloads under Windows 11 to head off unforeseen compatibility problems.
- Educate end-users about the why and how of the transition to reduce support tickets and upgrade resistance.
- Bolster multi-factor authentication and endpoint controls to cover any residual risk during the migration window.
The Bottom Line: An Unprecedented Transition
This isn’t the first time Microsoft has shifted users to a new platform, but the Windows 10 end-of-life event impacts modern work, learning, and entertainment on a scale never before seen. The stakes are higher, with the risks of delay looming larger than with any previous Windows transition.The enduring lesson for users and organizations is that doing nothing is the riskiest option of all. While Microsoft’s strategy draws fair criticisms—particularly around hardware requirements, cost, and environmental impact—the direction is clear. Staying current is no longer a “nice to have” but a basic requirement for digital safety in an increasingly hostile internet landscape.
For the nearly 500 million with a choice, the best window to act is now—not when exploits become headline news or regulatory fines land. For the rest, it’s time to chart an alternate course, whether by budgeting for new hardware or exploring different platforms.
As the clock ticks down, every month will see sharper warnings and greater urgency. Those who act now will be better protected and less stressed when the deadline arrives. For the Windows community and the tech industry at large, how this transition unfolds will echo far into the future.
Source: Forbes Microsoft’s Bad News—500 Million Windows Users Must Now Decide
