PC makers and Microsoft expected the Windows 11 rollout to accelerate after the public countdown to Windows 10’s end-of-support, but real-world telemetry and vendor statements show a slower, more fractured migration — with Windows 11 growth coming largely from new hardware and niche segments, while a substantial tail of devices remains on Windows 10 for technical, economic, and organizational reasons.
Background and overview
Windows 11 launched with a higher hardware baseline and a clear message: modern security and an AI-enabled future would be delivered on up-to-date silicon and platform features. That message, combined with Microsoft’s timetable for Windows 10 support, was expected to trigger a broad upgrade surge. Instead, adoption has been steady but slow, and the transition looks less like a rapid tidal wave and more like a drawn-out, multi-year refresh cycle. Public trackers and OEM commentary paint a consistent picture: Windows 11 has gained market share, but Windows 10 still powers a large portion of active Windows desktops.
Key datapoints reported in market coverage and vendor briefings include:
- Public traffic-based tracking put Windows 11 above the 50% desktop share mark in mid‑2025 and measured Windows 11 at roughly the low-to-mid 50s by late 2025 in some samples.
- Dell told investors the migration is “behind the pace” of previous OS shifts by around 10–12 percentage points and framed the installed base as roughly 1.5 billion Windows PCs — with roughly 500 million devices eligible but not upgraded and another ~500 million too old to run Windows 11 without replacement. Those are vendor telemetry figures and should be treated as directional rather than an audited census.
- Enterprises continue to use Extended Security Updates (ESU) and other staggered approaches to delay or pace migrations for critical systems.
These numbers and narratives matter: they explain why OEMs’ inventory forecasts and channel programs have diverged from earlier upgrade cycles, and why migration-driven PC spending has been more muted than expected.
Why the upgrade stalled: the structural causes
Several durable, interlocking factors have slowed the Windows 11 transition. Each factor alone is meaningful; together they explain the protracted pace.
1) The hardware gate: stricter requirements changed the calculus
Windows 11’s baseline — UEFI Secure Boot, TPM 2.0 (or firmware TPM), specific CPU-family requirements, and minimum memory/storage thresholds — intentionally raised the minimum platform quality. That design improved security posture and future-proofing but created an adoption cliff for millions of otherwise functional devices. Many corporate and consumer machines remain physically incompatible unless owners replace motherboards or entire systems. Even for technically eligible devices, firmware quirks and driver availability add friction.
2) Enterprise migration calculus: testing, budgets, and risk
Large IT environments do not flip OSes like a light switch. Firms require:
- application and driver compatibility testing,
- staged pilots across business units,
- imaging and deployment adjustments,
- training and support planning,
- budget cycles and procurement approvals.
The cumulative cost and operational risk mean many organizations prefer a staged cadence aligned with existing refresh windows rather than an immediate modernization push driven by an OS end-of-support date. ESU and conservative scheduling let organizations defer replacement without immediately accepting unpatched risk on critical systems. This is explicitly strategic rather than purely reactive.
3) Perceived value vs. upgrade friction
For many users the day-to-day benefits of Windows 11 feel incremental: visual refinements, layout changes, and a growing but still-maturing suite of AI-assist features. Where the practical advantages are modest, users and administrators rationally choose the status quo, particularly when the alternative requires hardware swap, driver workarounds, or retraining. That weakens the incentive to trigger a potentially disruptive migration.
4) Economic pressure and refresh budgeting
Even if an upgrade is technically attractive, macroeconomic caution and constrained IT budgets push many organizations to postpone refresh programs. The cost of migration includes more than device price — compatibility remediation, deployment labor, and potential productivity dips during rollouts. OEMs’ channel telemetry reflected a “long runway” opportunity rather than an immediate uplift.
5) Measurement and sampling variance
Public trackers use different methodologies — web pageview sampling, telemetry from specific platforms (e.g., gaming client surveys), and channel shipment figures. These divergent lenses yield different snapshots: gaming and new-device samples skew newer and Windows 11‑heavy, while office fleets and older consumer devices keep Windows 10 share artificially high in other measurements. Readers should treat single-month, single-sample figures as directional rather than definitive censuses.
The data: what trackers and vendors are actually saying
Market trackers and vendor statements converge on the same qualitative conclusion: migration is happening but unevenly. Important, measurable claims include:
- StatCounter and similar traffic-weighted trackers showed Windows 11 crossing the 50% desktop share mark in mid‑2025 and continuing to grow into the autumn months; however, Windows 10 remained a substantial share in other samples. These trackers reflect user browsing patterns, and thus are sensitive to user profiles and regional differences.
- Steam’s Hardware & Software Survey and gaming-oriented telemetry report higher Windows 11 penetration earlier, reflecting the gaming market’s tendency to run newer hardware and to prioritize features like DirectStorage and game performance optimizations. Gaming telemetry is an important signal but is not representative of enterprise or low‑spec consumer devices.
- Dell’s Q3 fiscal commentary openly quantified migration lag and the installed-base split; Dell said the transition was roughly 10–12 percentage points behind previous OS migrations at comparable timeline points, and described 500 million eligible-but-unupgraded and ~500 million too-old devices — framing a multi-year replacement opportunity rather than a single surge. Those vendor numbers are valuable as channel telemetry, but they are estimates and not an audited industry census.
Cross-checking those three classes of evidence — traffic trackers, vertical telemetry (gaming), and OEM channel commentary — yields a coherent narrative: Windows 11 adoption has advanced, but a persistent Windows 10 cohort accounts for a meaningful fraction of active desktops.
Enterprise implications: risk, strategy, and cost control
For IT leaders the migration decision is a multi-dimensional risk-management problem.
Security posture and ESU choices
Extended Security Updates (ESU) provide a structured way to postpone large-scale migrations for mission-critical endpoints while retaining patches for critical CVEs. Treat ESU as a planning tool to buy time — not as a long-term, cost-free option. Organizations relying on ESU should have clear sunset dates and migration milestones.
Prioritization framework for migration
Adopt a risk-based prioritization:
- Inventory endpoints and classify by business criticality and upgrade eligibility.
- Move mission-critical, high-risk, or externally exposed systems to current support first.
- Schedule low-risk desktops and lab hardware in later waves aligned with device refresh budgets.
This staged approach minimizes disruption while ensuring the highest-risk assets are protected quickly.
Operational and financial controls
Replacing devices en masse is expensive. IT leaders should:
- consolidate application portfolios to reduce compatibility testing overhead,
- negotiate multi-year refresh financing with OEMs,
- consider cloud-hosted Windows (Windows 365 / cloud PC) for legacy desktop replacement without capital expenditure,
- use trade-in and certified-refurbishment programs to lower net replacement cost.
Consumer patterns: dual-PC households and the secondary-PC effect
A substantial part of Windows 10’s persistence stems from consumer behavior:
- buyers of new Windows 11 machines often keep existing Windows 10 devices as secondary units for light tasks, backups, or kids’ use; those secondary devices still generate web traffic and continue to show up in usage statistics,
- some regions and households benefit from delayed or free consumer update policies for security patches, reducing urgency,
- nostalgia and familiarity with existing workflows further slow user-initiated upgrades.
This “secondary-PC effect” means public usage metrics overstate the progress of wholesale fleet replacement; growth in Windows 11 can reflect net additions more than true, one-for-one replacements.
What OEMs and the channel are doing about it
OEMs have adapted strategy in response to the slower migration:
- shifting programs from expecting a front-loaded, OS-driven spike to pursuing steady conversion through trade-ins, financing, and sustainability programs,
- bundling AI-capable hardware messaging (NPUs, enhanced Copilot experiences) to create a clearer value proposition for buyers,
- aligning promotions with lifecycle finance offers to smooth customer spend and convert eligible-but-unupgraded devices.
Dell’s public remarks were explicit: the company reframed the situation as a long runway of opportunity rather than a near-term market surge. That reframing influences inventory planning and sales targets across the channel.
Strengths of the current Windows 11 proposition
Despite slower migration, Windows 11 contains some compelling, demonstrable strengths that will sustain long‑term adoption:
- Stronger platform security — TPM 2.0 and Secure Boot baseline support hardware-backed features that reduce attack surface and enable modern identity and encryption workflows.
- Tighter integration with cloud and AI services — Microsoft’s Copilot and on-device AI investments are increasingly tailored to Windows 11, which may create tangible productivity gains for specific workloads and user profiles.
- Vendor-driven momentum in new devices — Every new PC shipped with Windows 11 increases the installed base, and high-end segments (gaming, creator machines) have adopted Windows 11 more quickly.
These strengths form the long-term case for migration, particularly when hardware refresh cycles and AI workloads converge.
Risks, downsides, and unresolved questions
No transition is risk-free. The Windows 10 → 11 pause highlights several ongoing risks IT and procurement leaders must track.
Technical and operational risks
- Unsupported legacy peripherals and drivers — specialized machinery and bespoke apps may lack Windows 11 drivers, forcing either hardware replacement or continued Windows 10 operation.
- Update-path caveats — unofficial workarounds to bypass Windows 11 checks exist but carry maintenance and security caveats unsuitable for enterprise use.
Commercial and environmental risks
- Escalating e-waste from forced replacements if organizations or consumers replace perfectly functional machines just to meet OS criteria — a sustainability concern with social and regulatory implications.
- Budget shock — unplanned refreshes timed to OS deadlines can disrupt multi-year procurement plans and strain IT support and user-training resources.
Data and measurement caveats
- Tracker divergence — different trackers paint different pictures. Relying on a single tracker to justify large procurement decisions is dangerous. Combine web-traffic trackers, internal telemetry, and vendor surveys to get a multi-angle view.
Where claims are vendor-provided (for example, Dell’s 1.5 billion installed base and the 500M/500M split), treat them as directional market telemetry rather than audited device registries; those figures are useful for planning but must be validated against each organization’s own inventory data.
Practical guidance for IT leaders and power users
Actionable steps to navigate the migration with minimal disruption:
- Inventory and classify devices by upgrade path: native Windows 11 eligible, eligible after firmware update, or replacement required.
- Prioritize mission-critical and externally exposed endpoints for early migration.
- Use ESU strategically for truly legacy-critical systems — plan migration roadmaps with clear sunset dates.
- Consolidate and rationalize applications to reduce compatibility testing overhead.
- Negotiate with OEMs for trade-in, financing, and certified-refurb programs to lower net replacement cost.
- Pilot Windows 11 features that deliver real productivity gains (Copilot workflows, security hardening) to build an internal business case.
- Consider Windows 365 / cloud-hosted Windows for rapid provisioning of Windows 11 experiences on legacy hardware where suitable.
These steps balance security, cost, and operational continuity.
Where adoption is fastest — and why that matters
Adoption has been strongest in segments where hardware turnover is fast and feature advantages are tangible:
- Gaming rigs and creator workstations (DirectStorage, GPU optimizations),
- Premium laptops and business notebooks purchased during scheduled refreshes,
- New consumer devices sold with Windows 11 preloaded.
These sub-markets matter because they anchor the growth curve: OEM preloads, gaming requirements, and premium business purchases will continue to tilt the installed base toward Windows 11 over time, even if office fleets turn over slowly.
Final assessment — slow replacement, steady growth
Windows 11’s adoption narrative is not a single sentence: it’s a compound story of design choices, corporate procurement discipline, consumer behavior, and vendor strategy. The migration is ongoing but not rushed; growth reflects new-device shipments and targeted enterprise pilots more than a spontaneous wave of replacements.
Dell’s investor-level framing — that migration is behind historical curves but that the installed base represents a long runway of replacement opportunity — captures the pragmatic market reality. Treat vendor figures as directional, use multiple telemetry sources to validate trends, and adopt a staged, risk-based migration plan. The net conclusion is clear: Windows 11 will continue to gain share, but replacing the enormous, distributed Windows 10 base will take time, money, and careful planning.
Editor’s note on claims and verification
Where figures and quotes derive from vendor briefings (for example, Dell’s 10–12 percentage-point lag estimate or the 1.5 billion installed-base framing), these are vendor-supplied telemetry and should be treated as directional planning inputs rather than precise, independently audited counts. Public trackers (StatCounter, Steam) provide useful, complementary views but sample different populations; combining sources provides the most accurate picture. Any single-sample number should be cross-checked with at least one other independent data stream before using it to drive large procurement decisions.
This transition period offers a practical opportunity: organizations and consumers can use the breathing room to plan deliberate, value-driven migrations — focusing on security, productivity, and environmental responsibility rather than rushing for compliance with a headline deadline. The story of Windows 11’s rise will be written over years, not months, and the winners will be the planners who convert patience into a measured, strategic refresh.
Source: TechRadar
PC makers expected a faster Windows 11 surge, yet adoption lags far behind