Windows 11 Set to Overtake Windows 10 as Most Popular Desktop OS in 2025

After years of anticipation, the balance of power in the PC operating system world is finally on the cusp of a dramatic shift. According to a fresh analysis of global desktop usage, Windows 11 is set to overtake its predecessor to become the world’s most popular desktop operating system. The latest numbers, sourced from StatCounter and reported by technology news outlet TweakTown, underscore a pivotal moment not just for Microsoft, but for millions of users and enterprises still weighing the leap to a newer platform.

The Numbers Behind Windows 11’s Surge​

StatCounter’s desktop OS market report for June 2025 charts a significant rise for Windows 11, which now claims 47.66% of global desktop market share, an impressive jump from 43.22% a month earlier. In contrast, Windows 10’s market share has slid from 53.19% to 49.03% over the same period. This 4.44% surge for Windows 11, combined with a 4.16% decline for Windows 10, positions the two operating systems within 1.4% of each other—making it highly probable that Windows 11 will surpass Windows 10 in the coming month.
While this trend is highly visible in StatCounter’s data, it’s essential to cross-reference with other analytics sources. For example, NetMarketShare—a now-defunct analytics service—historically reported similar, though sometimes slightly differing, adoption rates. Currently, StatCounter is one of the most widely cited and trusted sources for OS market share. However, as with any analytics report, figures may vary slightly depending on methodology and data aggregation nuances. Nevertheless, the trend is clear: Windows 11 has momentum, while Windows 10 is, predictably, in numeric retreat.

Windows 10: The End of an Era Is Near​

A major force behind the surge to Windows 11 is the rapidly approaching End of Life (EOL) for Windows 10. Microsoft has set October 14, 2025, as the day extended support for Windows 10 officially winds down. This means regular security updates, technical support, and feature improvements will cease for the vast majority of users. For enterprises or consumers who require ongoing protection, Microsoft is offering the option to purchase extra years of security updates through its Extended Security Updates (ESU) program—a first for a mainstream Windows release aimed directly at consumers, not just business and education clients.
Despite the incentive to upgrade, history shows that operating systems linger far beyond their official EOL. As of June 2025, Windows 7, which reached its EOL in January 2020, maintains a stubborn market share of 2.21%. This highlights the persistence of legacy OS adoption, particularly among users with specialized requirements or old hardware.

What’s Fueling the Migration to Windows 11?​

The sudden leap in Windows 11 adoption can be attributed to several converging factors:

• Impending Windows 10 EOL: The discontinuation of security updates for Windows 10 motivates both enterprises and consumers to seek a supported OS sooner rather than later.
• Hardware Refresh Cycles: PC manufacturers are now shipping new devices with Windows 11 preinstalled, encouraging adoption among those replacing aging systems.
• Policy Nudging and Aggressive Updates: Microsoft has, at times, made the transition to Windows 11 more assertive through pop-ups, reminders, and streamlined upgrade processes in Windows Update.
• Enterprise Planning: Many businesses, often slow to upgrade, are now accelerating pilots and phased rollouts before Windows 10 support lapses. Compatibility with new productivity and security features is a driving force for these transitions.

It’s important to note that not all users are enthusiastic about the change. Windows 11’s strict hardware requirements—especially the need for TPM 2.0 and newer CPUs—continue to exclude a significant base of older PCs from the upgrade path, a recurring theme in online forums and feedback channels.

Analysis: Strengths and Benefits of Windows 11’s Rise​

With each new Windows release, Microsoft strives to balance innovation with stability. Windows 11, while not a radical departure from Windows 10, brings clear improvements:

Improved Security Posture​

One of Windows 11’s most notable advances is its commitment to modern security standards. The mandatory requirement for TPM 2.0 chips, Secure Boot, and hardware-based virtualization reflects a recognition of the more menacing cybersecurity landscape of the 2020s. These enhancements, while contentious for those on legacy hardware, set a higher baseline for protecting user data and fending off ransomware and malware threats prevalent today.

Enhanced User Experience​

Windows 11 introduces a refreshed visual design, centered start menu, improved window management (including Snap Layouts), and deeper integration with both Microsoft services and peripherals. Feedback from users and reviewers points to a cleaner, more modern interface—although personal preferences remain divided, especially among legacy users who bristle at radical aesthetic changes.

Better Gaming and Productivity​

For gamers, Windows 11 was the first mainstream platform to support features like Auto HDR and DirectStorage, which lower game load times and improve graphics. These features, along with optimizations for newer CPUs and GPUs, contributed to Windows 11 overtaking Windows 10 usage on platforms like Steam earlier than in the broader desktop market—a phenomenon confirmed by Valve's monthly hardware surveys.
On the productivity front, enhancements to Teams integration, virtual desktops, and improved touch and stylus support reflect Microsoft’s effort to keep pace with both home and hybrid workforce demands.

Alignment with Modern Hardware Trends​

Windows 11’s minimum hardware bar—while controversial—ensures that the OS is primed for the latest processors, advanced memory management, and energy efficiency features. For users with compatible hardware, the platform promises longer-term support and better performance tuning.

Challenges and Trade-Offs: The Other Side of the Coin​

Despite its momentum, Windows 11’s rise has not been seamless. The operating system faces both technical criticism and market skepticism:

Hardware Exclusion and Backlash​

Perhaps Windows 11’s biggest criticism remains its exclusion of older yet functional PCs. Many users with systems perfectly capable of running modern workloads are disqualified due to a lack of TPM 2.0 or older CPUs outside Microsoft’s compatibility list. Although unofficial workarounds exist (and are widely disseminated), Microsoft neither endorses nor supports such paths, leaving unsupported users potentially vulnerable or left behind.

Inconsistencies and Legacy Friction​

As with previous transitions, certain enterprise apps—a backbone for many organizations—may take months or years to become fully validated on Windows 11. Legacy software and peripheral compatibility issues still arise, occasionally prompting IT departments to stick with Windows 10 or switch to ESU plans rather than risk productivity loss.

Adaptation Challenges for Users​

Small interface changes, such as the repositioning of the Start button and altered right-click context menus, have frustrated some long-time Windows users. While these shifts are often minor, cumulative user annoyance can stymie satisfaction, particularly for less tech-savvy populations.

Privacy and Telemetry Concerns​

While Windows 11 promises enhanced security, Microsoft’s broader ecosystem approach—cloud integration, telemetry collection, mandatory Microsoft accounts on some editions—has reignited debates about user privacy and data sovereignty. Critics argue that tighter linkage to Microsoft online services increases the company’s data collection capacity, sometimes at the expense of transparency and user choice.

The Stubborn Survivors: Windows 7 and Beyond​

While Windows 11’s battle with Windows 10 dominates headlines, it’s notable that even as Microsoft readies the sunset for its older operating systems, countless devices worldwide continue to run Windows 7 and, to a lesser extent, even older versions. At 2.21% market share, Windows 7’s enduring usage underscores the complexities of global IT landscapes—ranging from point-of-sale terminals and legacy industrial systems to home PCs that simply won’t die.
For these users, upgrading can represent a sizeable cost in hardware replacement, retraining, and application compatibility. Many businesses continue to run “mission critical” applications on platforms long out of support, choosing to manage risk internally or through costly custom support agreements.

Windows 10’s Slow Fade: When Will It Truly Drop Below 10%?​

From a historical perspective, the decline of legacy Windows platforms is anything but rapid. After Windows XP’s EOL in 2014, it took years for the OS to fall below 10% of the desktop market. Given consumer habits, enterprise inertia, and the novelty of extended updates for Windows 10, analysts expect a similarly prolonged wind-down. Although Windows 10 will probably fall below the 10% mark before the decade is out, the “last holdouts” will almost certainly linger well into the late 2020s, securing another chapter in Microsoft’s long tradition of overlap.

Microsoft’s Consumer-Focused Extended Security: A First​

One factor that could prolong Windows 10’s afterlife is Microsoft’s decision to offer Extended Security Updates (ESU) directly to consumers for the first time. Previously, such programs were the exclusive domain of enterprise or education clients. Now, any user unwilling—or unable—to upgrade due to application dependencies, hardware incompatibility, or simple inertia can buy themselves up to one more year of security updates, likely at a subscription fee.
From a public health perspective, this is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it reduces the number of unprotected, out-of-date systems vulnerable to malware attacks. On the other, it can disincentivize the hardware and workflow modernization needed to bring the entire ecosystem forward.

What’s Next? The Road Ahead for Microsoft and Windows​

The emergence of Windows 11 as the world’s leading desktop operating system is a major milestone for Microsoft, affirming the company’s patient—but relentless—push toward a more unified, modern, and secure PC platform. While the journey has been slower than some at Redmond might have hoped, the surge in adoption is testament to both Microsoft’s long-term planning and the inexorable pressure of technological obsolescence.
Yet, the transition is far from finished. Key questions that will determine the shape of the Windows ecosystem over the next few years include:

• How rapidly will Windows 10’s user base decline, and will the ESU program meaningfully alter the arc of that decline?
• Will Microsoft respond to lingering complaints about Windows 11’s hardware requirements, user interface inconsistencies, or privacy policies?
• How will businesses and governments navigate the chasm between security demands and the inertia of legacy software piled atop aging hardware?
• What impact will forthcoming Microsoft innovations—such as AI-powered features or the rumored “Windows 12”—have on further speeding up or complicating the upgrade cycle?

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Windows Ecosystem​

In sum, the imminent ascendancy of Windows 11 to desktop dominance marks not just a statistical milestone, but a profound turning point for the world’s most enduring computing platform. The numbers bear witness to a changing of the guard that’s been years in the making, driven by both the remorseless tick of the IT clock and the lure of a more secure, capable, and modern experience. For users and organizations alike, the decision to transition is no longer a matter of “if,” but rather “when” and “how.”
Yet, the persistence of Windows 10, and even Windows 7, serves as an enduring reminder: in technology, no platform is ever truly dead—just waiting for history, hardware, and user habits to catch up. As the Windows journey continues, only one thing is certain: change is coming, and with it, both opportunity and risk for Microsoft and its billions of customers worldwide.

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Source: TweakTown Windows 11 is finally poised to become the most popular desktop operating system